Toowoomba City

An assessment of population growth drivers in Toowoomba City reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Toowoomba City's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 2,473 people. This reflects an increase of 152 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,321 people in the Toowoomba City statistical area (Lv2). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,466 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional five validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 909 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Toowoomba City's growth rate of 6.5% since the census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the non-metro area (8.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in this area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Looking at population projections moving forward, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected in the Toowoomba City (SA2), with an expansion by 124 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 0.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Toowoomba City according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Toowoomba City has an average annual dwelling approval rate of around 8 based on AreaSearch analysis. From FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 43 homes were approved, with another 41 approved in FY-26 so far. This results in about 1 person moving to the area annually for each dwelling built over these years.

The average construction value of new homes is $380,000. Commercial approvals totalled $53.7 million in FY-26. Compared to Rest of Qld and national averages, Toowoomba City has around 66% of the construction activity per person and ranks in the 60th percentile nationally. New development consists of 40.0% detached houses and 60.0% attached dwellings.

The area has approximately 248 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Toowoomba City will add 9 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, benefiting buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Toowoomba City has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 21 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Grants for Growth Infrastructure Plan, Mater Dei Primary School Early Years Precinct, Toowoomba Railway Parklands Priority Development Area, and the proposed Toowoomba Art Museum. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Toowoomba City are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Toowoomba City has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.1% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%.

As of September 2025, there are 1,231 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 2.0% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Toowoomba City lags behind at 49.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Notably, health care & social assistance has a concentration level of 1.2 times the regional average.

However, construction has limited presence with 6.7% employment compared to the regional average of 10.1%. The area functions as an employment hub with 6.4 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 5.2%, labour force increased by 3.4%, resulting in a decrease of unemployment by 1.6 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.7% while unemployment rose by 0.3%. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Queensland employment contracted by 0.01%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toowoomba City's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Toowoomba City's suburb has a lower than average income level nationally, according to AreaSearch aggregated ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers is $46,450 and the average income stands at $57,074. This compares to Rest of Qld's figures of $53,146 and $66,593 respectively. Based on a 9.91% growth in Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $51,053 (median) and $62,730 (average). Census data shows personal income ranks at the 22nd percentile ($667 weekly), with household income at the 6th percentile. Income analysis reveals that the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 27.5% of residents (680 people), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile.

Toowoomba City displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Toowoomba City, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 53.0% houses and 47.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro Qld's 81.4% houses and 18.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, home ownership in Toowoomba City was at 18.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (19.3%) or rented (62.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,355, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $255. Nationally, Toowoomba City's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported on 20 June 2021, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 for the same period.

Toowoomba City features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 46.5% of all households, including 15.3% couples with children, 17.3% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 53.5%, with lone person households at 49.1% and group households comprising 5.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Toowoomba City aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 27.9% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6% and the SA3 area rate of 23.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.4% and certificates at 25.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 7.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 30 operational public transit stops within Toowoomba City. These are served by a combination of bus routes totaling eight. Weekly passenger trips amount to 771 across these routes.

Residential accessibility is rated highly, with residents situated an average of 168 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 110 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toowoomba City is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toowoomba City faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~1,232 people) of its total population has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (14.4%) and arthritis (9.5%). A lower percentage of residents report no medical ailments (58.8%) compared to the Rest of Qld (65.3%). The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.4% (479 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges largely aligned with those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Toowoomba City was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Toowoomba City had a cultural diversity index of 21.5%, with 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home, above the regional averages. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.5%. The 'Other' category comprised 7.2%, significantly higher than the Rest of Qld average of 2.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.7%), Australian (22.1%), and Irish (11.8%). Notably, German was overrepresented at 6.8% compared to 8.0% regionally, Samoan at 0.4% versus 0.1%, and Scottish at 8.4% compared to 7.9%.

Toowoomba City's median age exceeds the national pattern

Toowoomba City has a median age of 40, which is close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but exceeds the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 19.6% of its population, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 5-14 cohort constitutes 7.5%. This concentration in the 25-34 age group is higher than the national figure of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted Toowoomba City's median age down by 1 year to 40. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 15.9% to 19.6%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.1% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.8% to 11.1%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 9.3% to 8.0%. By 2041, Toowoomba City's age composition is expected to see notable shifts. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 17%, adding 80 residents to reach 565. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.