Carlton (Vic.)

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

By Feb 2026, Carlton's population is estimated at around 23,244, reflecting a 44.8% increase since the 2021 Census which reported 16,055 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 23,167 based on latest ERP data (June 2024) and 63 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 13,132 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carlton's growth exceeded both national (9.9%) and state averages, primarily driven by overseas migration. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels.

Future trends forecast a significant population increase by 2041, with Carlton expected to gain 8,035 persons, reflecting a 33.9% total increase over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Carlton when compared nationally

Carlton recorded approximately 36 residential properties approved annually, with 184 homes approved between financial years FY21-FY25. No approvals have been recorded in FY26 to date. On average, each home built accommodates around 15.3 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

This demand exceeds supply, leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. Developers focus on premium properties, with an average construction cost of $721,000 for new dwellings. In FY26, Carlton has seen $138.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly lower building activity, at 86.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity drives demand and prices for existing properties higher. Recent development has been exclusively townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

As of now, Carlton indicates a mature market with around 416 people per approval. By 2041, AreaSearch projects Carlton to add 7,885 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 50 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Brenan Place, and Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carlton has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carlton's workforce is highly educated with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 6.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 6.6%. As of September 2025, 14,499 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. According to Census responses, 41.7% of residents worked from home. Key industries include professional & technical, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. Carlton has a strong specialization in accommodation & food with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence at 3.0%, compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

The area functions as an employment hub with 1.0 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.6% and labour force increased by 6.4%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Carlton suburb had median income among taxpayers at $35,986 and average income at $56,216. Both figures are below national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $38,955 and average income is around $60,854. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for 2021, incomes in Carlton rank between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 26.0% of locals (6,043 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, reflecting regional patterns where 32.8% fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carlton, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was at 13.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,898, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, including 7.0% couples with children, 21.5% couples without children, and 5.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 18.3%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably higher educational attainment compared to broader benchmarks. Specifically, 59.6% of Carlton residents aged 15 years or older hold university qualifications, surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. This high level of educational attainment is predominantly composed of bachelor degrees (35.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications make up a significant portion as well, with advanced diplomas accounting for 7.5% and certificates for 6.3%.

Carlton also exhibits high educational participation rates, with 47.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.0% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 53 active public transport stops, serving a mix of light rail and bus routes. These stops are served by 26 individual routes, collectively facilitating 22,128 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Carlton's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 29%, followed by walking at 24% and train at 14%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 3,161 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 417 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carlton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Carlton demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of Carlton's total population (~11,417 people) has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.0% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 76.8% of Carlton residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 6.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,441 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, though it ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has one of the highest levels of linguistic diversity in Australia, with 50.8% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home. Born overseas make up 58.4% of Carlton's population. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, accounting for 22.6%.

Buddhism is notably more prevalent in Carlton at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.8%). Vietnamese (2.0%) and Korean (0.9%) are overrepresented, while Spanish (0.7%) is slightly above the regional average of 0.4%.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age was 24 years as of 2021, notably lower than Greater Melbourne's 37 and significantly below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton had a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (39.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.8%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds was well above the national average of 12.5%. Since the 2016 Census, younger residents had shifted the median age down by 3.3 years to reach 24 years in 2021. Notably, the 15 to 24 age group grew from 30.6% to 39.5% of the population during this period. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort declined from 10.8% to 8.6%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 6.0% to 4.1%. By 2041, Carlton's age composition is expected to change significantly. Leading this demographic shift, the 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 40% (3,243 people), reaching a total of 11,286 from 8,042 in that year.