Carlton (Vic.)

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population is estimated at 23,244 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a growth of 7,189 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,055. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 23,167 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 63 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 13,132 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% nationally. Carlton's growth rate of 44.8% since 2021 exceeds both national (9.9%) and state averages, marking it as a significant growth leader. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Carlton is projected to grow by 8,038 persons, reflecting a total gain of 34.2% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Carlton when compared nationally

Carlton saw approximately 36 new homes approved each year based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 184 homes were approved, with none yet in FY-26. An average of 15.4 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed over these years.

Supply has lagged demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers target the premium market segment, constructing new properties at an average value of $721,000. This financial year, Carlton had $138.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. However, Carlton has significantly less development activity compared to Greater Melbourne (86.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though building activity has accelerated recently. Recent activity consists entirely of townhouses or apartments, reflecting a trend towards denser development appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

Carlton has approximately 416 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established area. Population forecasts suggest Carlton will gain 7,961 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 50 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Brenan Place, and Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID). The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Carlton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Carlton has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 6.6% in the past year. Employment grew by 5.2% during this period, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of December 2025, Carlton had 14,632 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.8%, 1.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Melbourne's at 71.3%. Census responses indicated that 41.7% of Carlton residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors were professional & technical, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance.

Carlton had a strong specialization in accommodation & food with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level, while construction had limited presence at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. There was one worker for every resident as per Census data, indicating that Carlton functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. In the 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 5.2% alongside labour force increasing by 5.1%, causing a slight decrease in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton suburb's income level is below national average per latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Carlton's median taxpayer income is $35,986, average income stands at $56,216. Greater Melbourne figures are $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. With Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Carlton are approximately $38,955 (median) and $60,854 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows incomes in Carlton at 19th-20th percentiles nationally. 26.0% of population (6,043 individuals) fall within $1,500 - 2,999 income range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 75.1% of income remaining, ranking at 12th percentile. Carlton's SEIFA income ranking is in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as evaluated in the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Melbourne metro's figures of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton stood at 13.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented dwellings at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,898, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carlton was recorded at $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, including 7.0% couples with children, 21.5% couples without children, and 5.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 18.3%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 59.6% holding university qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for Carlton residents. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification held at 35.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 21.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Technical qualifications make up 13.8% of educational achievements, with advanced diplomas accounting for 7.5% and certificates for 6.3%.

Carlton also has a high rate of current educational participation among its residents, with 47.7% enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.0% pursuing tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 53 active public transport stops, offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are served by 26 different routes, collectively facilitating 22,128 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents located an average of 105 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Carlton residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 29%, followed by walking at 24% and train at 14%. The area has a lower-than-average vehicle ownership rate of 0.3 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.7% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 3,161 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 417 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Carlton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Carlton demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average across older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of Carlton's total population (~11,417 people) have private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 10.0 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 76.8% of Carlton's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 6.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,441 people), which is lower than the 15.1% in Greater Melbourne but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a diverse population with 50.8% speaking languages other than English at home and 58.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 22.6%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%.

The top three parental ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.8%). Vietnamese (2.0%), Korean (0.9%), and Spanish (0.7%) ethnicities show notable overrepresentation in Carlton compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age of 24 years is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's 37 and significantly below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (39.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.8%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national average of 12.5%. Since the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted Carlton's median age down by 3.3 years to its current level. Between censuses, notable changes include an increase in the 15 to 24 age group from 30.6% to 39.4%, a decline in the 35 to 44 cohort from 10.8% to 8.6%, and a decrease in the 45 to 54 group from 6.0% to 4.3%. By 2041, Carlton is projected to experience significant shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 age group expected to grow by 41% (an increase of 3,269 people), reaching a total of 11,312 from the current figure of 8,042.