Carlton (Vic.)

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carlton's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 23,095. This reflects an increase of 7,040 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,055. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 23,127 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 59 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 13,048 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carlton's growth rate of 43.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both the national average (8.9%) and state averages. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this population increase.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Future population trends indicate a significant increase for Carlton, with an expected rise of 8,040 persons by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 34.8% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Carlton when compared nationally

Carlton recorded approximately 37 residential properties granted approval per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 186 homes were approved, with none so far in FY-26. On average, each home built over these five years accommodates about 15.2 new residents annually.

This indicates significant demand exceeding supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is approximately $721,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $199,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years. When considering Greater Melbourne's average building activity per person, Carlton records significantly lower figures (86.0% below regional average). This scarcity of new dwellings often strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity.

Nationally, Carlton's development levels are also lower, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. Recent development in Carlton has been entirely comprised of townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This results in around 412 people per approval, indicating a mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Carlton is projected to add approximately 8,035 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 51 infrastructure projects that could impact the area's performance. Key projects include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID), and Carlton Gardens Masterplan 2022. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carlton has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carlton has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 7.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 6.0%.

As of June 2025, 13,502 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.7% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries include professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. The area specializes in accommodation & food with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence at 3.0% compared to the regional 9.7%.

There is one worker for every resident, indicating Carlton functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 6.0%, labour force grew by 7.1%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5%, labour force expand by 4.0%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Carlton's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Carlton's employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Carlton had a median income among taxpayers of $35,986. The average income level was $56,216. Both figures were below the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively in Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $40,362, with average income around $63,052. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Carlton fall between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 26.0% of locals (6,004 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to patterns seen in the region where 32.8% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 2.2% houses and 97.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was at 13.9%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carlton was $1,898, lower than Melbourne metro's $1,962. The median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $396. Nationally, Carlton's median monthly mortgage repayment is higher at $1,898 versus Australia's average of $1,863. Meanwhile, Carlton's median weekly rent is lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, including 7.0% couples with children, 21.5% couples without children, and 5.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 18.3%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 59.6% holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds both the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in various qualification types: Bachelor degrees are most common at 35.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Technical qualifications make up 13.8% of residents' educational achievements, with advanced diplomas accounting for 7.5% and certificates for 6.3%.

Educational participation in Carlton is high, with 47.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.0% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education. The area's three schools have a combined enrollment of 577 students as of the most recent data. Carlton demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1057. Education provision is balanced with two primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. Local school capacity is limited, with only 2.5 places available per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 6.9, indicating that many families may travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 51 active public transport stops, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 28 routes that collectively facilitate 15,773 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 105 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency averages 2,253 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 309 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Carlton's health outcomes data shows notable results, with younger age groups having a low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 49% (~11,344 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.0%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions in Carlton, affecting 10.0% and 7.0% of residents respectively. 76.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.8%. The area has 6.2% (1,431 people) of residents aged 65 and over, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a highly diverse population, with 50.8% speaking languages other than English at home and 58.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carlton, accounting for 22.6%. Buddhism stands out at 6.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 7.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.8%). Notably, Vietnamese (2.0%) and Korean (0.9%) are overrepresented compared to regional figures of 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age was 24 years as of the 2021 Census, which is significantly lower than Greater Melbourne's median age of 37 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (40.3%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.9%). This concentration of young adults is notably higher than the national average of 12.5%. Since the previous census, there has been a significant shift in Carlton's age demographics, with the median age decreasing by 3.5 years to 24 due to an increase in younger residents. The proportion of residents aged 15-24 grew from 30.6% to 40.3%, while the proportions of residents aged 35-44 and 45-54 decreased from 10.8% to 8.4% and 6.0% to 4.2%, respectively. By 2041, Carlton's age composition is projected to change significantly, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 43% (an increase of 3,410 people), reaching a total of 11,286 residents from its current figure of 7,875.