Carlton (Vic.)

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

By May 2026, AreaSearch estimates Carlton's population at around 24,636. This is an increase of 8,581 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,055. The change reflects an estimated resident population by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 13,918 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 53.4% since the 2021 census exceeds both the state (9.3%) and national averages. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods in Carlton.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Carlton's population is forecasted to increase significantly, with an expected gain of 7,036 persons, reflecting a total growth rate of 28.6% over the 16-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Carlton when compared nationally

Carlton has seen around 36 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 184 dwellings were approved, with another 242 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years brought in about 15.1 new residents.

This has led to supply lagging demand, likely driving buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction value of new properties is $721,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $138.8 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has significantly less development activity, with 86.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent building activity consists entirely of townhouses or apartments, catering to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

The area currently has about 417 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its established nature. By 2041, Carlton is forecasted to gain approximately 7,036 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price growth.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 48 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID), and Queen Victoria Market Precinct Renewal. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Carlton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Carlton has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 6.6% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 5.6%. As of December 2025, Carlton's unemployment rate was 1.8% higher than Greater Melbourne's at 4.8%, while its workforce participation rate was lower at 66.5%.

Notably, 41.7% of residents worked from home based on Census responses. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. The area specializes in accommodation & food with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level, but construction has limited presence at 3.0%. There is one worker for every resident, indicating Carlton functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 5.6% while labour force grew by 5.5%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Carlton suburb's median taxpayer income is $35,986 according to AreaSearch data from ATO for financial year 2023. Average income in Carlton is $56,216 compared to Greater Melbourne's $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 are approximately $39,448 (median) and $61,624 (average). Census 2021 data shows Carlton's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally. In Carlton, 26.0% of individuals earn within $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional patterns at 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe with only 75.1% income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile. SEIFA income ranking places Carlton in the 8th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton was at 13.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 10.5% and rented ones at 75.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,898, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,000. Median weekly rent in Carlton was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,898, while rents were lower at $365.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 36.4% of all households, including 7.0% couples with children, 21.5% couples without children, and 5.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 18.3%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 59.6% holding university qualifications. This figure is significantly higher than the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. The area's strong educational advantage is reflected in the diversity of qualifications held by its residents. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 35.5% of residents holding one.

Postgraduate qualifications follow at 21.4%, while graduate diplomas make up 2.7% of educational achievements. Technical qualifications account for 13.8%, with advanced diplomas representing 7.5% and certificates 6.3%. Educational participation in Carlton is high, with 47.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.0% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 53 active public transport stops serving a mix of lightrail and bus services. These stops are covered by 26 individual routes, collectively facilitating 22,128 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 105 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 29%, followed by walking at 24% and train at 14%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 41.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 3,161 trips per day, equating to approximately 417 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Carlton is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Carlton demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 49% of Carlton's total population (~12,101 people) has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Carlton, impacting 10.0 and 7.0% of residents respectively. 76.8% of Carlton residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Working-age residents in Carlton are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 5.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,453 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has a high level of cultural diversity, with 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 58.4% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Carlton at 22.6%, compared to Buddhism which is overrepresented at 6.6% (regional average 4.2%). The top three ancestry groups are Chinese at 20.1% (regional average 6.5%), Other at 18.3%, and English at 15.8%.

Notably, Vietnamese (2.0% vs regional 1.9%), Korean (0.9% vs 0.3%), and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.4%) are overrepresented in Carlton.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton has a median age of 23, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that the 15-24 year-old group is particularly prominent, making up 41.6% of Carlton's population, compared to just 1.7% for the 5-14 age group. This concentration of young adults is significantly higher than the national average of 12.7%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation in Carlton's population, with the median age falling from 27 to 23 years between censuses. Specifically, the proportion of 15-24 year-olds increased from 30.6% to 41.6%, while the 35-44 and 45-54 age groups decreased from 10.8% to 8.5% and 6.0% to 4.0%, respectively. Looking ahead, demographic projections for Carlton indicate significant shifts in its age structure by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 2,948 people (36%) from 8,277 to 11,226.