Carlton (Vic.)

Carlton has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Carlton (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is around 23,242 people. This figure reflects a significant increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 16,055 people. The growth can be attributed to an additional 7,187 residents, marking a 44.8% increase over the four-year period. This estimation is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024). Notably, this population density translates to approximately 13,131 persons per square kilometer, placing Carlton (Vic.) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. This high density underscores the area's significant demand for land resources.

The substantial growth in Carlton (Vic.)'s population since the 2021 Census exceeded both national and state averages. The primary driver behind this growth was overseas migration, which accounted essentially for all population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted via weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, future population trends indicate a significant increase for Carlton (Vic.). Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is forecasted to gain an additional 8,040 persons by 2041. This projected growth represents a 33.9% increase over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Carlton when compared nationally

Carlton recorded approximately 36 residential properties approved annually between financial years FY-21 and FY-25. A total of 184 homes were granted approval during this period, with none so far in FY-26. On average, each home built attracted around 15.3 new residents per year over these five years.

The average construction cost for new dwellings was $721,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, Carlton has seen $138.8 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton's building activity is 86.0% lower per person. This scarcity typically drives demand and prices for existing properties higher. Recent development has been exclusively townhouses or apartments, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 416 people per approval, Carlton suggests a mature market.

By 2041, AreaSearch projects Carlton will add approximately 7,888 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and price increases.

Carlton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 51 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Elgin Towers Carlton Social Housing Redevelopment, Drummond House, Brenan Place, and Australian Institute for Infectious Disease (AIID). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Carlton has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Carlton has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 6.5% in September 2024, with estimated employment growth of 6.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, Carlton had 14,499 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 6.6%, and workforce participation similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The key industries for employment among residents are professional & technical services, accommodation & food, and health care & social assistance. Notably, the area specialises in accommodation & food with an employment share of 2.3 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. With a worker-resident ratio of 1.0, Carlton functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 6.5% and labour force grew by 6.4%, with unemployment remaining largely unchanged. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force expand by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carlton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carlton had a median income among taxpayers of $35,986. The average income stood at $56,216. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $38,955 for median income and $60,854 for average income. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Carlton all fall between the 19th and 20th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 26.0% of locals (6,042 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 75.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carlton features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carlton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 1.3% houses and 98.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 2.2% houses and 97.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carlton stood at 13.9%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Dwellings were either mortgaged (10.5%) or rented (75.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,898, below the Melbourne metro average of $1,962. Carlton's median weekly rent figure was $365, compared to Melbourne metro's $396. Nationally, Carlton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Carlton features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 36.4% of all households, including 7.0% couples with children, 21.5% couples without children, and 5.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 63.6%, with lone person households at 45.3% and group households comprising 18.3%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

The educational profile of Carlton exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Carlton has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 59.6% holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds both the Australian average (30.4%) and the Victorian state average (33.4%). The area's educational advantage is evident in various qualification types: bachelor degrees are held by 35.5%, postgraduate qualifications by 21.4%, and graduate diplomas by 2.7%. Technical qualifications make up 13.8% of achievements, with advanced diplomas at 7.5% and certificates at 6.3%.

Carlton also has a high level of educational participation, with 47.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 35.0% in tertiary education, 2.5% in primary education, and 2.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carlton has 51 operational public transport stops serving a mix of light rail and bus services. These stops are covered by 26 distinct routes, collectively facilitating 22,128 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 105 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 3,161 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 433 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carlton's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Carlton's health outcomes show impressive results, with younger age groups experiencing low prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 49% (~11,416 individuals) have private health cover, lower than Greater Melbourne's 54.5%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in Carlton, affecting 10.0% and 7.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 76.8% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 79.8%. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 6.2% (1,441 individuals), indicating a need for more targeted healthcare attention in this demographic.

Carlton is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Carlton has high cultural diversity, with 50.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 58.4% born overseas by Aug 2016 census data. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 22.6%. Buddhism is overrepresented at 6.6%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 7.0%.

Top three ancestry groups are Chinese (20.1%), Other (18.3%), and English (15.8%). Vietnamese (2.0% vs 2.0%), Korean (0.9% vs 1.5%), and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.7%) show notable differences in representation compared to regional figures.

Carlton hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Carlton's median age of 24 years is notably lower than Greater Melbourne's 37 and significantly below the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Carlton has a higher concentration of residents aged 15-24 (40.2%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (1.9%). This concentration of 15-24 year-olds is well above the national figure of 12.5%. Since the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted Carlton's median age down by 3.4 years to 24. Notably, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 30.6% to 40.2%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 10.8% to 8.4%. Additionally, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 6.0% to 4.2%. By 2041, Carlton is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 42%, reaching 11,288 people from 7,925.