Lakemba

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lakemba reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Lakemba's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 18,047. This figure represents a growth of 955 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,092. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,613 in June 2024 and the addition of 165 validated new addresses since the Census date. Lakemba's population density stands at 8,240 persons per square kilometer, placing it within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 5.6% since the 2021 census exceeds both its SA3 area (4.8%) and SA4 region, positioning Lakemba as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.2% to recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an above median growth is projected for the area, with an expected expansion of 2,433 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 11.1% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Lakemba is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lakemba averaged approximately 29 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25146 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY-26. The population has been declining recently, suggesting that the new supply has likely met demand, providing good options for buyers.

The average construction value of these dwellings is $242,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices. In FY-26, $13.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lakemba shows approximately 59% of the construction activity per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 11th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes.

This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Lakemba's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (26.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. With around 1353 people per dwelling approval, Lakemba reflects a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Lakemba is expected to grow by 1,999 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Lakemba has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 23 projects that could significantly impact the area, primarily due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Among these key projects are the Lakemba Station Sydney Metro Upgrade, the mixed-use development at 677 & 687 Canterbury Road Belmore, the Lakemba Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Masterplan, and the proposed development at 754-774 Canterbury Road Belmore. The following list provides details on those projects likely to be most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Lakemba lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Lakemba has an educated workforce with diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 7.9% as of June 2025, and estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year. The area has 7,122 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 3.7% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lags at 42.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and transport, postal & warehousing. Lakemba specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level, but has lower representation in professional & technical services at 7.3% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count.

In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, labour force by 2.2%, raising unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lakemba's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Lakemba SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $34,243 and an average of $43,895 in financial year 2022. This was lower than the national average, with Greater Sydney's median being $56,994 and average being $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $38,561 and the average $49,430, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Lakemba's incomes ranked between the 4th and 15th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment in Lakemba comprised 32.5% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, while the region had 30.9% within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 76.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Lakemba features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Lakemba, as per the latest Census, 25.6% of dwellings were houses while 74.4% were other types such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 48.7% houses and 51.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lakemba was at 20.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.2% and rented ones at 59.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,712, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Lakemba was $350, compared to Sydney metro's $390. Nationally, Lakemba's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lakemba features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 71.5% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 14.6% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.5%, with lone person households at 19.5% and group households comprising 8.9%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.9.

Educational attainment in Lakemba aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 39.5%, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area average of 31.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 14.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.4%. Vocational pathways account for 20.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.6% and certificates at 10.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 39.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.9% in primary education, 7.9% in tertiary education, and 7.7% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lakemba has 65 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 4,946 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 110 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 706 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 76 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lakemba's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Lakemba's health outcomes show excellent results, especially for younger age groups with low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 48% (around 8,626 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Diabetes and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Lakemba, affecting 5.5% and 4.6% of residents respectively. A total of 81.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 77.7% across Greater Sydney. Lakemba has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 10.9% (around 1,976 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Lakemba is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lakemba has a population where 65.2% were born overseas, with 81.5% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion is Islam, accounting for 68.3%, compared to 24.7% in Greater Sydney. Regarding ancestry, the top groups are Other (49.8%), Indian (10.5%), and Australian (8.2%).

Lakemba notably has higher percentages of Lebanese (6.3%) and Vietnamese (3.5%) residents than the regional averages, while Greeks are underrepresented at 2.8%.

Lakemba hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Lakemba's median age is 32 years, which is notably younger than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lakemba has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (15.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (7.6%). According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 65-74 increased from 5.4% to 6.1%, while the 25-34 age group decreased from 20.0% to 19.0%. By 2041, Lakemba's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 83%, adding 505 residents to reach 1,114. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 55% of the population growth, with declines projected for the 35-44 and 25-34 age groups.