Tugun

Population growth drivers in Tugun are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Tugun is estimated at around 7,589 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 414 people, or approximately 5.8%, since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,175 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,512 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest Estimated Residential Population (ERP) data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,440 persons per square kilometer, placing Tugun in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, the suburb has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.5%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. As we examine future population trends, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb expected to increase by 1,142 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 16.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Tugun recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Tugun experienced approximately 28 dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 143 homes were approved, with another 10 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in an average of 3.6 people moving to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years.

The demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. Developers focus on the premium market, with new dwellings valued at approximately $1,457,000 on average. There have been $5.6 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tugun has markedly lower building activity, 60.0% below the regional average per person, which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Current development consists of 18.0% detached houses and 82.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 46.0% houses). This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options.

Tugun has around 543 people per approval, suggesting a mature market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates the area will grow by approximately 1,247 residents. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tugun has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may affect the area. Notable projects include Gold Coast Light Rail Stage 4, Admiral Crescent Residential Care and Retirement Facility, Bilinga Residential Estate Stage 2, and Gold Coast Desalination Plant Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Tugun demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Tugun has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.2%.

As of June 2025, 4,482 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7%, below Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was 64.2%, higher than Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction had notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.5% versus the regional average of 4.5%. The predominantly residential area offered limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending Jun-25, employment increased by 2.2%, labour force by 2.1%, reducing unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points. Comparatively, Rest of Qld had employment growth of 1.8%, labour force growth of 2.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tugun's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes not accounting for localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Tugun had a median income among taxpayers of $50,462 with average income standing at $68,555. This is higher than national averages of $50,780 and $64,844 across Rest of Qld respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since financial year ended June 2022, current estimates for median income are approximately $57,522 and average income is $78,146 as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021, household incomes in Tugun cluster around the 54th percentile nationally with 35.4% of population (2,686 individuals) falling within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional patterns at 31.7%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tugun with only 81.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 47th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Tugun displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tugun's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 46.4% houses and 53.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 49.8% houses and 50.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tugun was at 29.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.8% and rented ones at 30.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Tugun was $460, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $450. Nationally, Tugun's median monthly mortgage repayment is higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tugun features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.5 percent of all households, including 28.5 percent couples with children, 25.7 percent couples without children, and 12.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.5 percent, with lone person households at 26.7 percent and group households making up 6.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Qld.

Tugun demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 27.2% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of Qld average of 20.6%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.8%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 40.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 13.4% and certificates at 26.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.2% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 24 active stops operating in Tugun. These stops are served by buses on four routes, offering a total of 1,309 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 177 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 187 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 54 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tugun's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Tugun residents show positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across all ages.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54%, covering about 4,126 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 7.5% each of the population. Around 71.8% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 70.3% in Rest of Qld. About 17.7%, or 1,343 people, are aged 65 and over, lower than the 19.2% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Tugun ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tugun's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.6% of its population being citizens, 80.5% born in Australia, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tugun, comprising 44.2% of people there. While Judaism makes up just 0.1% of the population, this is an overrepresentation compared to the 0.1% across Rest of Qld.

The top three ancestry groups are English (31.0%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.4%). Notably, New Zealanders comprise 1.3%, Welsh make up 0.7%, and Spanish account for 0.6% of Tugun's population, each being overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively.

Tugun's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Tugun is 38 years, which is slightly below Rest of Qld's average of 41 but aligns with Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 17.9% of Tugun's population, higher than Rest of Qld's figure, while the 5-14 cohort represents 9.8%, lower than Rest of Qld's average. Post-2021 Census data shows Tugun's median age decreased by 1 year to 38 from 39 between censuses. The 25-34 age group grew from 15.6% to 17.9%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 12.3% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 11.7% to 9.8%. By 2041, Tugun's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow by 416 people (31%), from 1,358 to 1,775. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts.