Thirroul

Thirroul has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Thirroul's estimated population is around 6,474. This reflects an increase of 126 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,348. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 6,451 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional 46 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,334 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thirroul's 2.0% growth since census positions it within 2.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.4%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to expand by 528 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 7.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Thirroul recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Thirroul has seen approximately 34 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 172 homes were approved, with another 13 in FY-26 so far. The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.8 people.

This suggests supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections. New properties are being constructed at an average expected cost of $923,000, indicating a focus on premium segments. In FY-26, $3.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, implying limited commercial development emphasis compared to residential. Thirroul's construction rates per person are similar to the rest of NSW, maintaining market balance with the broader area.

Recent construction comprises 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing pattern of 76.0% houses. This change may indicate diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. Thirroul has around 192 people per dwelling approval, showing characteristics of a low-density area. By 2041, Thirroul is projected to grow by approximately 488 residents based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Thirroul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area: Electrify 2515 Community Pilot, Thirroul Plaza Redevelopment, McCauley Lodge Redevelopment, and Bulli Bypass Feasibility Study. These projects are considered key initiatives for the region.

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Employment conditions in Thirroul demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Thirroul has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.1%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, 3,487 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 1.8% below the regional average and a workforce participation rate of 62.7%, higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include education & training, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Education & training has a particularly high representation with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.5% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population count compared to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.3% alongside labour force increasing by 0.3%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 2.1%. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment to 4.2%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thirroul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Thirroul suburb is $58,370 and average income is $88,570. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $63,542 (median) and $96,417 (average). According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for 2021, Thirroul's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 76th and 82nd percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 28.3% of locals (1,832 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with the regional average of 29.9%. Notably, 38.1% of residents earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing expenses account for 14.8% of income, while strong earnings place residents in the 82nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA index places it in the 9th decile based on income rankings.

Thirroul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Thirroul, as per the latest Census, 75.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 24.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure, which was 58.9% houses and 41.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thirroul stood at 41.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.0% and rented ones at 20.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Thirroul was $2,600, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,189. Median weekly rent in Thirroul was $540, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Thirroul's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,600 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thirroul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.5% of all households, including 37.9% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Thirroul places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Thirroul's educational attainment is notably high, with 41.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This figure exceeds both the Rest of NSW (21.3%) and the SA4 region (25.2%) averages. University qualifications are led by bachelor degrees at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.1% and graduate diplomas at 4.2%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (20.7%).

Educational participation is high in Thirroul, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 5.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thirroul has 28 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 27 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,221 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 345 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 174 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 43 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Thirroul is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Thirroul shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence rates for common conditions. Approximately 62% of Thirroul's total population of 4005 have private health cover, higher than Rest of NSW's 56.8% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 8.4%) and asthma (6.7%).

A majority, 71.8%, report no medical ailments, compared to 68.6% in Rest of NSW. Thirroul has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.1% (1366 people), compared to 17.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, surpassing the general population's health metrics.

Thirroul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thirroul's population showed low cultural diversity, with 82.4% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 93.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the prevalent religion, accounting for 46.3%. Judaism was overrepresented, comprising 0.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (30.4%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Welsh (1.1% vs regional 0.8%) and Scottish (9.6% vs 7.7%) populations were overrepresented, while Spanish was slightly higher at 0.6% compared to the regional average of 0.5%.

Thirroul hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Thirroul has a median age of 43, matching Rest of NSW's figure and exceeding Australia's national average of 38 years. The age distribution reveals that residents aged 45-54 make up 13.8%, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 8.9%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.7%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 5.3% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 14.5% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Thirroul's age structure. Notably, the 75 to 84 group is projected to grow by 59%, reaching 657 people from 414. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 60% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.