Thirroul

Thirroul has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Thirroul is around 6,452, reflecting a 1.6% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 6,348 people. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 6,436 based on ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,330 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Thirroul's growth rate since the census, at 1.6%, is within 2.4 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 4.0%. Overseas migration contributed around 62.0% of overall population gains in recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Thirroul is projected to increase by 521 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 7.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Thirroul recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Thirroul has seen approximately 35 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 177 homes were approved, with a further 11 approved in FY-26. On average, 0.8 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these years.

This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new properties is $923,000, reflecting a focus on premium segment development. In FY-26, $8.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Thirroul's construction rates per person are similar to the rest of NSW, maintaining market balance with the broader area.

Recent construction comprises 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 76.0% houses pattern, possibly due to decreasing developable land availability and changing lifestyle preferences. Thirroul has around 153 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density characteristics. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Thirroul's population will grow by 503 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Thirroul has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects that may impact the region: Electrify 2515 Community Pilot, Thirroul Plaza Redevelopment, McCauley Lodge Redevelopment, and Bulli Bypass Feasibility Study. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Thirroul demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Thirroul has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.7% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.0%. The area's unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is higher at 62.7% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include education & training, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area specializes in education & training with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.5% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 1.0% alongside labour force growth of 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thirroul's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Thirroul is high nationally. The median assessed income is $58,370 and the average income stands at $88,570. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Thirroul would be approximately $65,730 (median) and $99,739 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Thirroul rank highly nationally, between the 76th and 82nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income brackets indicate that 28.3% of locals (1,825 people) fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 weekly category. A significant 38.1% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 14.8% of income and residents rank within the 82nd percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Thirroul is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Thirroul's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 58.9% houses and 41.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thirroul was at 41.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.0% and rented ones at 20.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, while the median weekly rent figure was $540. Nationally, Thirroul's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thirroul has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.5% of all households, including 37.9% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.7 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Thirroul places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Thirroul's educational attainment is notably high, with 41.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 25.2% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.2%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 31.3% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (20.7%). Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.8% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 5.3% in tertiary education.

Thirroul Public School and St Michael's Catholic Primary School serve the area, enrolling a total of 553 students. The ICSEA score for these schools is 1113, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. Both schools cater to primary education only, with secondary options available in nearby areas. There are 8.6 school places per 100 residents in Thirroul, lower than the regional average of 14.9, suggesting some students may attend schools outside the area.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thirroul has 22 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 25 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,640 weekly passenger trips. The town's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 346 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 234 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 74 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Thirroul is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Thirroul shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence rates for common conditions. Private health cover is high at approximately 62% (3,991 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 56.6%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.4%) and asthma (6.7%). 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of NSW's 68.6%. As of 2021, 21.1% of Thirroul's population is aged 65 and over (1,361 people), higher than Rest of NSW's 17.7%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Thirroul ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thirroul's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 93.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.3% of Thirroul's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.4%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (10.8%). Some other ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Welsh was overrepresented at 1.1% in Thirroul (vs 0.8% regionally), Scottish at 9.6% (vs 7.7%), and Spanish at 0.6% (vs 0.5%).

Thirroul hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Thirroul has a median age of 43, matching Rest of NSW's figure and surpassing Australia's national average of 38 years. The age distribution shows that individuals aged 45-54 are notably prominent at 13.9%, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 8.9% of the population, compared to Rest of NSW. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.5% to 11.7%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 5.3% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 14.5% to 12.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thirroul's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 58%, reaching 654 people from the current 412. Notably, those aged 65 and above will account for 60% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. In contrast, the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.