Theodore (ACT)

Theodore has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The population of Theodore (ACT) is estimated at 3,726 as of May 2026, based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census. This reflects a decrease of 72 people from the 2021 Census figure of 3,798. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 3,726 by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and five additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,186 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed approximately 74.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are used, also based on 2022. Population projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the suburb's population expected to decrease by 190 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 65 to 74 age group, which is projected to expand by 86 people.

The level of residential development activity in Theodore is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Theodore has experienced approximately one dwelling receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years ending 30 June 2021. This totals an estimated seven homes. In the current financial year, FY-26, one approval has been recorded as of this date. The area's population decline has led to adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $329,000, which is higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $481,000 have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Theodore has significantly less development activity, with 84.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Nationally, Theodore's development activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

All new construction in Theodore over this period has been comprised of standalone homes, preserving its suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 3742 people per dwelling approval, Theodore reflects a highly mature market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Theodore may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Theodore has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects likely impacting the area: Banks Gateway Estate, Calwell Retirement Living Precinct, Calwell Public Housing Development, and EV Fast Charging Infrastructure - Calwell (Calwell Shopping Centre). The following details those considered most relevant.

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Employment performance in Theodore has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Theodore has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 6.0%, with relative stability over the past year according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, Theodore had 2,178 residents employed, an unemployment rate of 6.0% compared to Australian Capital Territory's 3.8%.

Workforce participation was at 75.5%, slightly higher than the ACT's 70.5%. Census data showed that 9.4% of residents worked from home, with potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Key industries for employment include public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and construction, with a notable concentration in construction at 1.6 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services were under-represented, at 6.7% compared to ACT's 11.1%.

The predominantly residential area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population count versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, labour force grew by 1.0%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Australian Capital Territory saw employment growth of 0.9%, labour force expansion of 1.2%, and a 0.3 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Theodore's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Theodore has a high national income level according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Theodore is $70,556 and the average income stands at $78,196. These figures compare to those of the Australian Capital Territory which are $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Theodore's median income would be approximately $77,922 and the average income would be around $86,360 as of March 2026. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Theodore rank highly nationally, between the 90th and 92nd percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 34.7% of locals (1,292 people) with weekly earnings between $1,500 and $2,999. Higher earners represent a substantial presence in Theodore, with 40.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.0% of their income on average. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile nationally.

Theodore is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Theodore's residential structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.1% houses and 4.9% other dwellings such as apartments and semi-detached units. This differs from the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) which had 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Theodore was 26.1%, similar to the ACT's, with mortgaged properties at 55.7% and rented ones at 18.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,002, lower than the ACT average of $2,080 but higher than the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Theodore was $430, compared to the ACT's $450 and the national figure of $375.

Theodore features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 79.6% of all households, including 40.4% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 12.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.4%, with lone person households at 18.4% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational attainment in Theodore aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 24.8%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 46.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 16.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 36.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (23.0%). Educational participation is high at 28.1%, with 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 4.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Theodore has 18 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 47 different routes that together facilitate 2,850 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing 226 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 96%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 407 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 158 weekly trips per individual stop.

Theodore's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Theodore's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues affect both young and old age groups similarly.

Private health cover is high at 58% (~2,164 people), compared to ACT's 62.4%. Mental health issues (10.2%) and asthma (9.8%) are the most prevalent conditions. 67.3% report no medical ailments, versus ACT's 70.2%. Working-age residents have higher chronic condition rates. The area has 14.7% seniors (547 people), with strong health outcomes ranking above national averages for this age group.

In terms of cultural diversity, Theodore records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Theodore's cultural diversity aligns with the broader regional average, as indicated by its population composition: 81.9% born in Australia, 94.2% being citizens, and 86.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Theodore, practiced by 46.1% of the population. While Judaism's representation is roughly equal to the regional average (0.2%), it is notable that the top three ancestry groups - Australian (28.2%), English (26.4%), and Irish (8.6%) - are all overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Specifically, Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), Dutch (1.9% vs 1.3%), and Croatian (1.0% vs 0.9%) ethnic groups show significant representation in Theodore relative to the region.

Theodore's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Theodore's median age is nearly 36 years, close to the Australian Capital Territory average of 35 but younger than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Theodore has a higher percentage of residents aged 55-64 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (14.1%). Between 2021 and present, the proportion of residents aged 65-74 has grown from 6.9% to 10.5%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 2.1% to 3.2%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 5-14 decreased from 13.1% to 10.9%, and the 45-54 age group dropped from 14.2% to 12.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Theodore, with the 65-74 cohort projected to grow by 16%, adding 62 residents to reach a total of 454. The senior population aged 65 and above will drive all population growth in Theodore, highlighting aging trends in its demographics. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 age group and those under the age of five (0-4 cohort).