Sunshine Bay

Population growth drivers in Sunshine Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Sunshine Bay is around 1,524. This reflects an increase of 85 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 1,439. AreaSearch's analysis, based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses, estimates the resident population at 1,505. This results in a population density ratio of 1,145 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine Bay's growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA3 area (3.5%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projects that Sunshine Bay's population will increase by 163 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 7.2% over the 17-year period. This projection is based on aggregated SA2-level projections, considering median growth rates for locations outside capital cities.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Sunshine Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Sunshine Bay recorded approximately 24 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 122 homes were approved, with an additional 5 in FY-26 to date. On average, 0.6 new residents arrived per new home over the past five financial years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new homes being built is $604,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties by developers. In FY-26, Sunshine Bay has seen $338,000 in commercial approvals, predominantly residential. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Sunshine Bay records 196.0% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 88.0% detached houses and 12.0% attached dwellings, preserving Sunshine Bay's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 73 people per approval, Sunshine Bay reflects a low-density area. Future projections estimate Sunshine Bay to add approximately 110 residents by 2041, indicating that current development rates should comfortably meet demand and provide good conditions for buyers while potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include the Greater Batemans Bay Structure Plan, Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra, NSW To Victorian Border, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Sunshine Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine Bay has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025557 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 44.6%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses show that only 9.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notably high concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.6% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.9%, with employment decreasing by 4.8%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Sunshine Bay. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Sunshine Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, Sunshine Bay's median income among taxpayers is $41,251. The average income in the suburb is $51,223. Both figures are below the national average. Comparing to Rest of NSW, Sunshine Bay's median income is lower at $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $44,906 (median) and $55,761 (average). Census 2021 data shows that Sunshine Bay's household, family, and personal incomes all fall within the 9th to 12th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment in Sunshine Bay comprises 35.5% earning between $800 and $1,499 weekly, with 541 residents falling into this category. This differs from regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine Bay, with only 84.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Sunshine Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.8% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine Bay was at 52.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (22.4%) or rented (24.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,650, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Sunshine Bay's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.5% of all households, including 15.9% that are couples with children, 38.8% that are couples without children, and 9.8% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Sunshine Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.8% and certificates for 31.4%.

A substantial 21.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.7% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine Bay has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 230 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 112 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards to other areas due to Sunshine Bay being primarily residential. Cars remain the most popular mode of transport, used by 97% of residents. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 32 trips per day, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunshine Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunshine Bay faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~720 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW, which is lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 14.5 and 8.6% of residents respectively, while 55.9% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 36.8% of residents aged 65 and over (560 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Sunshine Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine Bay had a cultural diversity score below average, with 81.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.9% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Sunshine Bay, accounting for 61.7% of residents, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (29.3%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) was overrepresented in Sunshine Bay compared to the regional average of 0.2%. Similarly, French (0.7% vs 0.4%) and Croatian (0.9% vs 0.3%) groups were also more prevalent than their respective regional averages.

Sunshine Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Sunshine Bay's median age is 55 years, which is higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and older than Australia's national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 years make up 15.5%, while the 35-44 group constitutes 7.8%. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is higher than the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 6.5% to 8.8%, while those aged 55-64 have declined from 15.0% to 13.5% and those aged 45-54 have dropped from 11.0% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Sunshine Bay's age structure, with the 85+ cohort expected to rise substantially by 33 people (68%) from 48 to 82. Conversely, the 5-14 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.