Sunshine Bay

Population growth drivers in Sunshine Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Sunshine Bay's population is estimated at around 1,515. This reflects an increase of 76 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,439. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,505 following their examination of ABS's latest ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,139 persons per square kilometer. Sunshine Bay's growth rate of 5.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (3.4%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected. The Sunshine Bay (SA2) is projected to increase by 161 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 7.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Sunshine Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Sunshine Bay shows around 24 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 122 homes were approved, with a further five approved so far in FY-26. On average, over these five years, 0.6 new residents arrived per new home constructed.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $604,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, there have been $338,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus for development activity in Sunshine Bay. Compared to the rest of NSW, Sunshine Bay records 195% more development activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 88% detached houses and 12% attached dwellings, preserving the suburban nature of the area with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

With around 73 people per approval, Sunshine Bay reflects a low density area. Future projections from AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate suggest that Sunshine Bay will add 114 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 0 projects that could affect this area. Notable projects include the Greater Batemans Bay Structure Plan, Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra NSW To Victorian Border, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Sunshine Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Sunshine Bay has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025561 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.8% compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 44.2% versus Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance notably dominates with levels at 1.2 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.6%, compared to the region's 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Labour force decreased by 4.9% year-to-year to September 2025, with employment down by 4.8%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.1 percentage points, contrasting Rest of NSW's trends. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local growth rates may vary based on industry-specific projections applied to Sunshine Bay's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Sunshine Bay's median income among taxpayers is $41,251, with an average of $51,223. This is below the national average and compares to Rest of NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $44,906 (median) and $55,761 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, Sunshine Bay's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 9th and 12th percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 35.5% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (537 residents), unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine Bay, with only 84.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 11th percentile.

Sunshine Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.8% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine Bay was 52.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.4% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,650, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Sunshine Bay was $370, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $320. Nationally, Sunshine Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,650 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Sunshine Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.5% of all households, including 15.9% that are couples with children, 38.8% that are couples without children, and 9.8% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 1.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.2.

Sunshine Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 31.4%. A total of 21.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 7.7% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 21.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 7.7% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine Bay has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 230 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 112 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 32 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunshine Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sunshine Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 47% (~715 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). Conversely, 55.9% report having no medical ailments, compared to 59.6% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 36.7% (556 people), higher than the 31.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than those for the general population.

Sunshine Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine Bay, surveyed in the year 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 81.4% of residents being born there. Citizenship was also high at 90.9%, and English was spoken exclusively at home by 93.3%. Christianity was the dominant religion in Sunshine Bay, practiced by 61.7% of its inhabitants, compared to a regional average of 49.0% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (29.3%), and Irish (9.8%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Russian was overrepresented at 0.5%, French at 0.7%, and Croatian at 0.9%.

Sunshine Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Sunshine Bay is 56 years, notably exceeding Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and significantly higher than Australia's 38 years. The 75-84 age group shows strong representation at 15.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 9.2% and the national average of 6.0%. Conversely, the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent in Sunshine Bay at 7.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 11.5%. Post the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 6.5% to 8.7%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 14.7% to 15.8%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort declined from 15.0% to 13.7% and the 65-74 group dropped from 19.0% to 17.8%. By 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Sunshine Bay's age structure, with the 85+ cohort showing the strongest projected growth at 83%, adding 39 residents to reach 86. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 55-64 cohorts.