Sunshine Bay

Population growth drivers in Sunshine Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The estimated population of Sunshine Bay as of February 2026 is around 1,524 people. This represents an increase of 85 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,439 people. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 1,505, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,145 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine Bay's growth rate of 5.9% since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA3 area (3.5%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Considering these projections, a population increase just below the median of national regional areas is expected by 2041, with Sunshine Bay projected to expand by 163 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 9.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Sunshine Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Sunshine Bay has experienced around 24 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 124 homes. So far in FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, there's been an average of 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings developed is $604,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $338,000 in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Sunshine Bay shows 202.0% higher new home approvals per person. Recent construction comprises 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 71 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine Bay shows characteristics of a low density area. Future projections show Sunshine Bay adding 144 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Sunshine Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact this area. Key projects include the Greater Batemans Bay Structure Plan, Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra NSW To Victorian Border, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy.

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While Sunshine Bay retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Sunshine Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 3.8% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in December 2025. There are 558 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is significantly lower at 44.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%.

According to Census responses, only 9.2% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Sunshine Bay has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance (1.2 times the regional level), but agriculture, forestry & fishing is less represented at 0.6% compared to Regional NSW's average of 5.3%. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population count versus resident population.

In the 12-month period ending in May-25, Sunshine Bay's labour force decreased by 3.8%, and employment declined by 3.1%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. Conversely, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Sunshine Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Sunshine Bay's median income among taxpayers was $41,251 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $51,223 during the same period. These figures are lower than Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth suggest Sunshine Bay's median income will be approximately $44,906 and the average will be around $55,761. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Sunshine Bay fall between the 9th and 12th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Sunshine Bay, 35.5% of the population earned within the $800 - $1,499 range, while the metropolitan region's leading income bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Sunshine Bay, with only 84.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Sunshine Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.8% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine Bay stood at 52.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.4% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,650, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Sunshine Bay was $370, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Sunshine Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,650 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $370 compared to the national figure of $375.

Sunshine Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.5% of all households, including 15.9% that are couples with children, 38.8% that are couples without children, and 9.8% that are single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households making up 32.2% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Sunshine Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.4%).

A total of 21.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.7% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine Bay has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together facilitate 230 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 112 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to Sunshine Bay's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 97% of residents. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 32 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunshine Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Sunshine Bay faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 720 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW, which has a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.5% and 8.6% of residents respectively. However, 55.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Sunshine Bay has 36.8% of its residents aged 65 and over (around 560 people), which is higher than the 23.4% figure for Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with those of the general population.

Sunshine Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine Bay, surveyed in June 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 81.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.9% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 61.7%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.1%), Australian (29.3%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) and French (0.7%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while Croatian was also higher at 0.9%.

Sunshine Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Sunshine Bay has a median age of 55 years, which is considerably higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national norm of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent, making up 15.4% of the population, compared to the national average of 6.1%. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age group is smaller at 8.2%, compared to Regional NSW's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 6.5% to 9.0%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 13.3%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.0% to 9.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Sunshine Bay's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 33 people (64%) from 51 to 85. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort is projected to decline by 8 people.