Sunshine Bay

Population growth drivers in Sunshine Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Sunshine Bay is estimated at around 1,535 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 96 people (6.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,439 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,525 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 67 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,154 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Sunshine Bay's growth of 6.7% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (2.6%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected. The suburb is projected to increase by 161 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Sunshine Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Sunshine Bay has recorded around 23 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 119 homes were approved, with a further 5 approved so far in FY-26. On average, over these years, 0.6 new residents arrive per new home annually.

This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average value of new homes being built is $604,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY-26, there have been $3.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Sunshine Bay records 188.0% more development activity per person, creating greater choice for buyers. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

This is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% attached dwellings, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. With around 89 people per dwelling approval, Sunshine Bay shows characteristics of a growth area. Looking ahead, Sunshine Bay is expected to grow by 94 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Sunshine Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factors influence an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely to impact this area. Key projects include the Greater Batemans Bay Structure Plan, Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra NSW To Victorian Border, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Sunshine Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Sunshine Bay has a mixed workforce consisting of white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.7%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025564 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Sunshine Bay lags at 44.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, health care & social assistance is concentrated with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.6% of Sunshine Bay's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 3.0% and employment fell by 4.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.1 percentage points in Sunshine Bay. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Sunshine Bay's specific industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Sunshine Bay's median taxpayer income was $41,251 and average was $51,223 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. By September 2025, estimates suggest Sunshine Bay's median income will be approximately $46,453 and average $57,682, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Sunshine Bay fall between the 9th and 12th percentiles nationally. In Sunshine Bay, 35.5% of individuals earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, whereas in metropolitan regions, 29.9% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability is severe, with only 84.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Sunshine Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Sunshine Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.8% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Sunshine Bay was at 52.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.4% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,650, while the median weekly rent figure was $370. Nationally, Sunshine Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents being less than the national figure of $375.

Sunshine Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.5% of all households, including 15.9% couples with children, 38.8% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.5%, with lone person households at 32.2% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.2.

Sunshine Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.4%).

A total of 21.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 7.7% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education. Sunshine Bay Public School serves the local educational needs within Sunshine Bay, with an enrollment of 221 students as of the latest available data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Sunshine Bay has 36 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 26 different routes that together offer 235 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 112 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 33 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Sunshine Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Sunshine Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 47% (~725 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). Conversely, 55.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.6% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 36.6% (561 people), higher than the 31.7% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are promising, outperforming general population metrics.

Sunshine Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Sunshine Bay was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 81.4% of its population born in Australia, 90.9% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Sunshine Bay is Christianity, accounting for 61.7% of the population, compared to 49.0% across Rest of NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (32.1%), Australian (29.3%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, Russian, French, and Croatian ethnicities are overrepresented in Sunshine Bay at 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.9% respectively, compared to regional averages of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.3%.

Sunshine Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Sunshine Bay is 56 years, which is notably higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and significantly exceeds Australia's national average of 38 years. The age group of 75-84 years shows strong representation at 15.7% compared to Rest of NSW, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. According to the Census conducted on 29 August 2021, the population aged 15 to 24 years has grown from 6.5% to 8.7%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 13.6%. Additionally, the 65 to 74 age group has dropped from 19.0% to 17.8%. Looking ahead to the year 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Sunshine Bay's age structure. The population aged 85 years and above is projected to grow by 81%, adding 38 residents to reach a total of 86. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.