Malua Bay

Population growth drivers in Malua Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Malua Bay, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since the Census, was around 2,088 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 17 people from the 2021 Census count of 2,071. The growth is inferred from the resident population estimate of 2,080 by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 60 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 168 persons per square kilometer. Since the Census, Malua Bay has experienced a growth rate of 0.8%, positioning it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 2.6%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 158 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Malua Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Malua Bay has averaged approximately 15 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 75 homes. From FY-26 to date, 4 approvals have been recorded. Each new home has attracted an average of 1 new resident annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction cost value for new homes is $604,000, slightly higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development.

This financial year, Malua Bay has seen $290,000 in commercial development approvals, predominantly focused on residential projects. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Malua Bay has 25.0% more development per person over the past five years, offering good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. The area's new building activity consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low density character with a focus on family homes.

With approximately 131 people per approval, Malua Bay reflects a low-density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Malua Bay is projected to add 173 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Malua Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Lot 5 Bunderra Circuit Residential Subdivision and Future Rosedale. Additionally, two major infrastructure projects are noted: Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra, NSW To Victorian Border (planned from Apr 2021 to Dec 2023) and Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity (commenced Jul 2020).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Malua Bay face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Malua Bay has a skilled labour force with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025834 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Malua Bay stands at 48.3%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force decreased by 4.1% and employment declined by 5.2%, raising unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Malua Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Malua Bay had a median taxpayer income of $48,820 and an average of $60,620 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. These figures were below the national averages of $51,379 (median) and $65,834 (average). The Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year 2022 to September 2025 suggests estimated incomes of approximately $54,976 (median) and $68,264 (average) during that period. Census 2021 data shows Malua Bay's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 30th and 31st percentiles. Income analysis revealed that 30.6% of locals (638 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 category, mirroring the regional trend where 29.9% occupied this bracket. Housing costs were manageable with 86.8% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 34th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Malua Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Malua Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Malua Bay was 53.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.1% and rented ones at 18.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent in Malua Bay was $418, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $320. Nationally, Malua Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $418 compared to the national figure of $375.

Malua Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.0% of all households, consisting of 21.2% couples with children, 42.2% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.0%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.2.

Educational achievement in Malua Bay places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Malua Bay's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks; 23.2% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees compared to NSW's 32.2%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (30.3%).

A substantial 24.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education; this includes 9.3% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside Malua Bay's immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Malua Bay has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 20 different routes that together offer 163 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Malua Bay is rated as good, with residents typically living 215 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 23 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Malua Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Malua Bay, with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 51% (~1,063 people) have private health cover, compared to 47.0% in Rest of NSW.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.3%) and mental health issues (9.1%). About 61.2% report being free from medical ailments, compared to 59.6% across Rest of NSW. Malua Bay has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 29.4% (613 people), compared to 31.7% in Rest of NSW.

Malua Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Malua Bay, as per the census in June 2016, had a cultural diversity below average with 83.9% of its population born in Australia and 91.1% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 95.2%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 53.7%, compared to 49.0% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%). Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 9.6% in Malua Bay versus the regional average of 8.6%. Croatian ancestry was also higher at 1.3%, compared to 0.3% regionally, and French ancestry stood at 0.7% versus 0.4%.

Malua Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Malua Bay is 52 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Malua Bay at 18.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 7.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 8.2% to 9.4%, while the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has declined from 17.5% to 16.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Malua Bay, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 cohort at 28%, adding 42 residents to reach 195. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 5-14 cohorts.