Malua Bay

Population growth drivers in Malua Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Malua Bay's estimated population is around 2,173 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 102 people (4.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,071 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,166 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 60 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 175 persons per square kilometer. Malua Bay's growth of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.4%, marking it as a leader in regional growth. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected, with the Malua Bay statistical area (Lv2) expected to expand by 160 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 4.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Malua Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Malua Bay has averaged approximately 18 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 90 homes. As of FY-26, 7 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 0.9 new residents have arrived per new home annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new homes is $604,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $1.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Malua Bay has seen slightly more development, approximately 49.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

New building activity comprises 86.0% standalone homes and 14.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Malua Bay reflects a low density area with around 108 people per approval. Future projections estimate Malua Bay will add approximately 90 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Malua Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to influence the region. Notable projects include Lot 5 Bunderra Circuit Residential Subdivision, Future Rosedale, Princes Highway Safety And Capacity: Nowra NSW To Victorian Border, and Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Malua Bay lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Malua Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 5.1%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025833 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Malua Bay is lower at 48.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12 months prior, labour force decreased by 5.8% alongside a 5.9% employment decline in Malua Bay, keeping unemployment relatively stable. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years in Malua Bay, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Malua Bay's median taxpayer income was $48,820 and average was $60,620 according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). By September 2025, estimated incomes would be around $53,145 (median) and $65,991 (average), considering an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since FY2023. In Census 2021 data, Malua Bay's household, family, and personal incomes ranked modestly between the 30th and 31st percentiles. The predominant income cohort in Malua Bay was 30.6% (664 people) earning $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to the regional average of 29.9%. Housing costs allowed locals to retain 86.8% of their income, although disposable income ranked below average at the 34th percentile. Malua Bay's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Malua Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Malua Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Malua Bay was at 53.7%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (28.1%) or rented (18.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $418, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $320. Nationally, Malua Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Malua Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.0% of all households, including 21.2% couples with children, 42.2% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.0%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.2.

Educational achievement in Malua Bay places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Malua Bay has 23.2% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 43.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 30.3%. A total of 24.7% of the population is currently engaged in formal education, including 9.3% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Malua Bay shows that there are 44 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 21 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 165 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 215 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 23 trips per day, which equates to roughly 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Malua Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Malua Bay, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population (~1,106 people), compared to 47.3% across Rest of NSW.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.3% of residents) and mental health issues (9.1%). A majority (61.2%) report being free from medical ailments, slightly higher than the 59.6% in Rest of NSW. Malua Bay has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 29.5% (641 people) compared to 31.7% in Rest of NSW.

Malua Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Malua Bay had a cultural diversity index below average, with 83.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Malua Bay, accounting for 53.7%, compared to 49.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups were English (32.8%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (10.3%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented at 9.6% in Malua Bay versus 8.6% regionally, while Croatian and French ancestries were also higher than the regional averages at 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively.

Malua Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Malua Bay is 52 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 18.3% in Malua Bay, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.2% to 9.4% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 17.5% to 16.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Malua Bay. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 24%, adding 37 residents to reach a total of 196. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts.