Burrill Lake

Burrill Lake lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Burrill Lake's population is estimated at around 2,061 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 279 people (15.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,782 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,923 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 20 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 479 persons per square kilometer. Burrill Lake's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.6%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 65.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. A significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Burrill Lake expected to expand by 552 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 14.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Burrill Lake according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Burrill Lake recorded around 15 residential properties granted approval each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 78 homes. As of FY-26, eight approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built, suggesting balanced supply and demand dynamics. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $672,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

This financial year has seen $8.3 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting Burrill Lake's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Burrill Lake exhibits moderately higher building activity (28.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period), supporting current property values while offering buyer choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New building activity comprises 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating diverse housing alternatives.

This shift marks a significant departure from existing patterns (currently 90.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. With around 258 people per approval, Burrill Lake reflects a transitioning market. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates the area will grow by 299 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Burrill Lake has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factors influence an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Milton Ulladulla Bypass, Managing Growth in Ulladulla, Milton and Surrounds, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy. The following list details those most relevant.

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The employment landscape in Burrill Lake shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Burrill Lake has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.8%, and there was an estimated employment growth of 2.4% in the year up to September 2025, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025733 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate matching Rest of NSW at 3.8%. However, workforce participation is lower at 49.6% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.1% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, labour force by 3.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.2 percentage points in Burrill Lake. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Burrill Lake's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Burrill Lake had a median taxpayer income of $40,201 and an average income of $53,810. This is below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 for Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $43,763 (median) and $58,578 (average). Census 2021 data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Burrill Lake fall between the 12th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 29.5% of the population, or 607 individuals, earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Burrill Lake is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Burrill Lake, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.8% houses and 12.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Burrill Lake was at 48.1%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (31.1%) or rented (20.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,571, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Burrill Lake was recorded at $350, matching Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, Burrill Lake's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Burrill Lake has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 68.2% of all households, including 23.7% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 11.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

The educational profile of Burrill Lake exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 14.7%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (34.7%). Educational participation is high at 25.4%, comprising primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (2.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Burrill Lake shows 25 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with 12 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes offer 179 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 243 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 25 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Burrill Lake is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Burrill Lake faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~994 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (12.1%) and mental health issues (8.3%). A higher proportion, 62.1%, report no medical ailments than in Rest of NSW (59.4%). There are 27.7% residents aged 65 and over (570 people). Health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Burrill Lake is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Burrill Lake's population showed low cultural diversity, with 89.9% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion at 48.5%. Buddhism was overrepresented at 1.6%, compared to 0.9% regionally.

In ancestry, English (33.2%) and Australian (31.6%) were the largest groups, followed by Irish at 8.5%. Welsh (0.7%), Croatian (0.6%), and Maori (0.6%) showed notable overrepresentation compared to regional averages of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.

Burrill Lake hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Burrill Lake's median age is 47 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up a particularly prominent group at 16.0%, while those aged 15-24 are comparatively smaller at 8.1%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 11.6% to 13.0% of the population. Conversely, the age group of 55 to 64 has declined from 15.5% to 13.5%. By 2041, Burrill Lake is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 31%, reaching 257 people from a previous total of 195. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 65 to 74 age groups are expected to experience population declines.