St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay's population is around 15,612 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 353 people (2.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,259 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,357 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 180 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 203 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Over the past decade, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.1% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the Rest of NSW. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 76.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 3,675 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 21.9% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay when compared nationally

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has seen around 73 new homes approved annually, with 365 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 55 so far in FY-26. At an average of 1.1 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, with recent figures indicating this has eased to -0.4 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, reflecting better supply availability. New properties are constructed at an average value of $308,000. There have also been $5.7 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

Relative to the rest of NSW, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 64th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The location has approximately 237 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Future projections show St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay adding 3,420 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 19 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Sanctuary Point Library, Mixed Use Development with In-Fill Affordable Housing, St Georges Basin, Paradise Beach Road Multi Dwelling Housing, and Tahnee Street Residential Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 5,760 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.4% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (46.0% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.8% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4% and the labour force increased by 2.4%, resulting in unemployment rising by 1.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay SA2 is below the national average, with the median assessed at $44,006 while the average income stands at $54,361. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $47,905 (median) and $59,177 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay all fall between the 7th and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the largest segment comprises 29.0% earning $400 - 799 weekly (4,527 residents), unlike trends in the metropolitan region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 45.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (24.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,517, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 68.3% of all households, comprising 20.0% couples with children, 35.0% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (12.0%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (34.7%).

A substantial 24.2% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 194 active transport stops operating within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 398 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 10.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 56 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~7,306 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW, while the national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 13.6 and 10.3% of residents, respectively, while 54.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.9% of residents aged 65 and over (4,511 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.5% being citizens, and 95.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is Christianity, which makes up 53.0% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay are English, comprising 32.0% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 5.5% of St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay (vs 4.6% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.2%), and Maltese at 0.9% (vs 0.4%).

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 49, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay notably exceeds the Regional NSW figure of 43 and is well above Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (15.1% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (9.6%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 9.4% to 11.2% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 16.8% to 15.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay's age structure. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 627 people (35%) from 1,803 to 2,431. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 9% (131 people).