St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to evaluation by AreaSearch, the population of St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is close to 15,469 in May 2026. This represents an addition of 210 residents (1.4%) relative to the 2021 Census, which counted 15,259 individuals. The shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 15,444 combined with 182 validated new addresses registered after the Census date. This population level yields a density of 201 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density and capacity for future expansion. The local post-census expansion rate of 1.4% trails the broader SA4 region (3.1%) by 1.7 percentage points, showing competitive local dynamics. In recent times, the main driver of population growth was overseas migration, which comprised roughly 54.5% of the total population growth.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from Geoscience Australia and the ABS published in 2024, using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 territories not documented in this release, NSW State Government SA2 projections from 2022 using a 2021 baseline are substituted. Age-specific growth percentages derived from these sources are projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic shifts, the population expansion is expected to exceed the median rate for regional Australian locations, with the community projected to grow by 3,340 individuals by 2041 compared to the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a cumulative increase of 21.4% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay when compared nationally

Over the last 5 financial years, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay recorded an average of roughly 73 new residential building approvals annually, summing to 365 homes. Within FY-26, 79 approvals have been logged. The ratio of 0.9 new residents per home built over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25 suggests that housing supply is keeping pace with or outstripping demand, providing buyers with options and accommodating population growth beyond initial expectations, with new dwellings showing a mean building value of $308,000. Additionally, commercial development remains a minor focus with $5.7 million in commercial approvals registered during this financial year.

Compared with the Rest of NSW, new residential building approvals per resident in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay run at about two-thirds the regional rate, placing it in the 64th percentile of all analyzed locations across the country. Construction activity is dominated by detached houses at 79.0%, with attached dwellings making up the remaining 21.0%, maintaining the low-density profile of the neighborhood and catering to buyers seeking space. The area averages roughly 239 people per residential approval, confirming its low-density characteristics.

Long-term forecasts indicate that St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay will add 3,315 residents by 2041 based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Should current construction rates persist, the supply of housing may fall short of population gains, which could intensify competition among buyers and support accelerated property value appreciation.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local planning, major infrastructure initiatives, and regional projects are critical drivers of local performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Key developments include the Sanctuary Point Library, a Mixed Use Development with In-Fill Affordable Housing, St Georges Basin, Paradise Beach Road Multi Dwelling Housing, and the Tahnee Street Residential Development, with the subsequent list detailing the most significant initiatives.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

The local workforce exhibits a balanced mix of professional and manual labor roles with strong representation in essential service fields, accompanied by an unemployment rate of 5.1%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 5,637 while the unemployment rate was 1.0% higher than the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, and the participation rate of 45.2% was significantly lower than the Regional NSW mark of 60.6%. Census data showed that a minor proportion of residents, 10.5%, worked from home, though these figures may reflect the impact of pandemic lockdowns.

The primary employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows a high level of local specialization, employing workers at a rate 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is underrepresented, accounting for 0.8% of employment compared to the regional benchmark of 5.3%. A comparison between the local working population and resident workers suggests that local employment opportunities are somewhat limited.

An analysis of ABS and SALM data by AreaSearch indicates that in the year ending March 2026, the local workforce grew by 0.9% while employment fell by 1.8%, leading to a 2.6 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 0.9% and the labor force shrink by 0.4%, with its unemployment rate rising by 0.5 percentage points. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia dated May-25 offer additional context on future demand in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with local industry profiles to project growth. Nationwide employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with performance varying by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry distribution suggests that employment for residents could grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted model that does not adjust for specific local population growth trajectories.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode-level tax data from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicates that average and median incomes in the St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay SA2 lag behind national benchmarks, with the median at $44,006 and the average at $54,361. These figures compare to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be roughly $48,547 for the median and $59,971 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes for the area all ranked in the 7th percentile nationally. The most common income bracket is the $400 - 799 range, containing 29.0% of residents (4,486 people), which contrasts with the metropolitan standard where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is largest at 29.9%. Housing affordability is a major challenge, with only 82.3% of income left after housing costs, ranking in the 7th percentile.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

According to the most recent Census, the local housing mix consisted of 88.4% detached houses and 11.6% other dwelling types such as apartments and semi-detached properties, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership was high at 45.2%, with remaining residences being mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (24.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,517, which is lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, while weekly rent was $360, compared to the regional figure of $330. Nationally, mortgage repayments in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rent costs are below the national median of $375.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 68.3%, consisting of couples with children (20.0%), couples without children (35.0%), and single parent households (12.6%). Non-family households account for the remaining 31.7%, with single person homes representing 28.6% and group housing comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, slightly below the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment levels in the area show that university qualification rates (12.0%) are below the NSW state average of 32.2%. This gap highlights a clear area for targeted educational strategies. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.5%, followed by postgraduate degrees (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificate level credentials (34.7%).

A significant proportion of the local population, 24.2%, is enrolled in formal study. This student group includes 9.0% attending primary school, 7.3% in secondary school, and 1.9% enrolled in higher education programs.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport options shows 194 active bus stops operating in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay. These stops are serviced by 24 routes, which together provide 398 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents living an average of 162 meters from the nearest stop. Because this is a residential district, most commuters travel outside the area, and private vehicles remain the dominant mode of travel at 97%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.3 cars per home, which is below the regional average. A minor proportion of residents (10.5%) worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic restrictions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 56 trips per day, which translates to approximately 2 weekly passenger trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the area.

Health performance in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality patterns and the occurrence of chronic illnesses, St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay faces notable health difficulties that impact both older and younger age groups. Private health insurance coverage is low, held by approximately 47% of residents (~7,239 people). This is lower than the Regional NSW average of 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health concerns, affecting 13.6% and 10.3% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 54.4% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age cohort exhibits elevated rates of chronic illness, indicating notable health challenges. Seniors aged 65 and over constitute 29.8% of the local population (4,615 people), exceeding the Regional NSW proportion of 23.4%. Health profiles for these older residents generally align with national averages.

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is lower than average, with 85.3% of residents born in Australia, 90.5% holding citizenship, and 95.0% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, followed by 53.0% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups are English (32.0%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.1%). Certain backgrounds are notably more common here than in the wider region, with Australian Aboriginal residents making up 5.5% of the population (compared to 4.6% regionally), Hungarian at 0.4% (compared to 0.2%), and Maltese at 0.9% (compared to 0.4%).

St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in St Georges Basin - Erowal Bay is 49 years, which is older than the Regional NSW average of 43 and well above the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, the 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented locally (15.6%), while children aged 5 - 14 are underrepresented (9.5%). The local concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 is also higher than the national average of 9.4%. Since 2021, the cohort aged 35 to 44 has increased from 9.9% to 11.3% of the population, and the group aged 25 to 34 has grown from 9.4% to 10.7%. In contrast, the 65 to 74 group has decreased from 16.8% to 15.6%, and children aged 5 to 14 have fallen from 10.6% to 9.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic models project significant shifts in age distribution, with the 35 to 44 age group expected to grow by 601 people (34%) to reach 2,349, compared to the current 1,747. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to see a modest increase of 8% (127 people).