Shoalhaven Heads

Population growth drivers in Shoalhaven Heads are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Shoalhaven Heads statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 3,264 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 16 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,248 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,084, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 830 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected. The area is projected to expand by 422 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 12.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shoalhaven Heads according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Shoalhaven Heads averaged around 13 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 66 homes. As of FY26, 7 approvals have been recorded. Between FY21 and FY25, there was an average of 1.4 people moving to the area for each dwelling built. However, this decreased to 0.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New properties are constructed at an average value of $855,000.

In FY26, $13.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoalhaven Heads shows approximately 59% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments.

With around 323 people per approval, Shoalhaven Heads reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate an addition of 394 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Shoalhaven Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No factors impact a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan 2041, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, South Pacific Offshore Wind Project, and Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet), with the following list providing details on those most pertinent.

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Employment conditions in Shoalhaven Heads demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Shoalhaven Heads has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9%.

As of September 2025, 1,252 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is 2.0% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags at 43.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and accommodation & food. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.0% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 2.9%, and labour force increased by 3.3%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections from May-25 forecast national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across sectors. Applying these projections to Shoalhaven Heads' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Shoalhaven Heads is below national average. Median income is $39,820 while average stands at $61,678. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Shoalhaven Heads would be approximately $43,348 (median) and $67,143 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes in Shoalhaven Heads fall between the 5th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 33.1% of population falls within $400 - $799 range, differing from broader area where $1,500 - $2,999 dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Shoalhaven Heads displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the latest Census, dwelling structures in Shoalhaven Heads consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.8% houses and 12.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalhaven Heads stood at 55.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.5% and rented ones at 19.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Shoalhaven Heads was $365, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $350. Nationally, Shoalhaven Heads' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Shoalhaven Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.3% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Shoalhaven Heads shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.2% and certificates for 31.0%. A total of 22.7% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 22.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoalhaven Heads has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 123 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 116 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 17 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoalhaven Heads is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalhaven Heads faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 51% (~1,676 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 49.1%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.2%) and mental health issues (7.7%). About 58.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.4% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 37.9% (1,237 people), higher than Rest of NSW's 27.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than the general population metrics.

Shoalhaven Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalhaven Heads had a low cultural diversity, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 54.2% of Shoalhaven Heads' population, compared to 52.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, French (0.6%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average (0.4%), as were Scottish (8.7%, vs 8.1%) and Maltese (0.6%).

Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Shoalhaven Heads is 56 years, which is notably higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 20.1% of the population in Shoalhaven Heads, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 7.8%, which is less prevalent than in Rest of NSW. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 6.3% to 7.8% of the population in Shoalhaven Heads. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 14.6% to 12.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalhaven Heads's age structure. The 35-44 cohort is projected to show the strongest growth at 30%, adding 93 residents to reach a total of 400. However, population declines are projected for both the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.