Shoalhaven Heads

Population growth drivers in Shoalhaven Heads are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Shoalhaven Heads is estimated at around 3,262 people, reflecting an increase of 14 individuals since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 0.4%. The resident population was last estimated by AreaSearch in June 2024 based on ABS ERP data and address validation, totaling 3,083 people. This results in a population density ratio of about 830 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch is utilizing ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, population projections indicate an above median growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas like Shoalhaven Heads. By 2041, the suburb is expected to expand by approximately 448 persons, reflecting an overall increase of about 8.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shoalhaven Heads according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Shoalhaven Heads averaged around 12 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 63 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed has been observed. This indicates a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions.

The average construction value for new homes is $855,000, reflecting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $13.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoalhaven Heads shows approximately 57% of the construction activity per person and places among the 48th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings.

New development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 340 people per dwelling approval, Shoalhaven Heads shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Shoalhaven Heads will gain 269 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Shoalhaven Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, substantial projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to affect this area. Notable projects include Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan 2041, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, South Pacific Offshore Wind Project, and Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Shoalhaven Heads demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Shoalhaven Heads has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 2.1% as of December 2025. This represents an employment growth of 1.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of that date, 1,247 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.8% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Shoalhaven Heads lagged significantly at 48.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Based on Census responses from 2025, 16.5% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries among Shoalhaven Heads residents include health care and social assistance, construction, and accommodation and food services.

The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level. In contrast, agriculture, forestry, and fishing employed just 1.0% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. Employment levels in Shoalhaven Heads increased by 1.4% during the year to December 2025, while the labour force increased by 2.3%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shoalhaven Heads' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though it is noted that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Shoalhaven Heads' median income among taxpayers is $39,820. The average income for the suburb is $61,678. Both figures are lower than national averages. Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Shoalhaven Heads as of September 2025 are approximately $43,348 (median) and $67,143 (average). The 2021 Census data places household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalhaven Heads between the 5th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 33.1% of individuals earn between $400 - $799, unlike surrounding regions where earnings of $1,500 - $2,999 dominate at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shoalhaven Heads, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Shoalhaven Heads displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Shoalhaven Heads, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalhaven Heads was at 55.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.5% and rented ones at 19.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Shoalhaven Heads was $365, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Shoalhaven Heads' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Shoalhaven Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households make up 61.3% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Shoalhaven Heads shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 31.0%. A total of 22.7% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 22.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoalhaven Heads has 66 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 123 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 116 meters from their nearest transport stop. In this predominantly residential region, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents, while walking accounts for 4%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.5% of Shoalhaven Heads' residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 17 trips per day, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Shoalhaven Heads's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalhaven Heads' health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence shows common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population, which is around 1,675 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.2 and 7.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of the latest data (2021), Shoalhaven Heads has 38.1% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 1,242 people, which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Shoalhaven Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalhaven Heads has a low cultural diversity, with 85.7% of its residents born in Australia and 91.2% being citizens. English is spoken exclusively at home by 97.1% of the population. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 54.2%, slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (35.1%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.8%). Some ethnic groups have higher representation compared to regional averages: French at 0.6% vs 0.4%, Scottish at 8.7% vs 8.0%, and Maltese at 0.6% vs 0.4%.

Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Shoalhaven Heads is 56 years, which is notably higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 20.3% of the population, compared to Regional NSW's percentage, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 7.8%, which is less prevalent than in Regional NSW. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 6.3% to 7.8% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort declined from 14.6% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalhaven Heads's age structure. The 35-44 cohort is projected to grow by 29%, adding 89 residents to reach a total of 403. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.