Shoalhaven Heads

Population growth drivers in Shoalhaven Heads are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Shoalhaven Heads is estimated to be around 3,262 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase from the population recorded in the 2021 Census, which was 3,248 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,083, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 830 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate that the suburb is expected to experience population growth just below the median of locations outside capital cities, with an increase of 418 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shoalhaven Heads according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Shoalhaven Heads averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 66 homes. As of FY2025-26, seven approvals have been recorded. Between FY2021 and FY2025, an average of 1.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built; however, this decreased to 0.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $855,000, indicating a focus on premium segment dwellings. In FY2025-26, $13.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting steady commercial investment activity.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Shoalhaven Heads shows approximately 59% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. With around 323 people per approval, Shoalhaven Heads reflects a low-density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Shoalhaven Heads is projected to add 396 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Shoalhaven Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to influence this region. Notable projects include Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan 2041, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, South Pacific Offshore Wind Project, and Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet). The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Shoalhaven Heads demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Shoalhaven Heads has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 1.9% as of September 2025, which is below the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%.

There are 1,245 residents in work, with workforce participation at 48.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 16.5% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and accommodation & food. Construction has a notably high concentration, with employment levels at 1.7 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, at 1.0% compared to 5.3% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while the unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Shoalhaven Heads' employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Shoalhaven Heads is $39,820 and average income is $61,678. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Shoalhaven Heads would be approximately $43,348 and average income would be around $67,143 by the latter date. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalhaven Heads fall between the 5th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 33.1% of residents earn between $400 to $799 annually, differing from broader area patterns where earnings between $1,500 to $2,999 dominate with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Shoalhaven Heads displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census data shows that in Shoalhaven Heads, 69.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 30.4% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalhaven Heads stood at 55.5%, with mortgaged properties at 25.5% and rented ones at 19.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Shoalhaven Heads was $365, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Shoalhaven Heads had higher mortgage repayments at $1,950 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Shoalhaven Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.3% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households making up 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Shoalhaven Heads shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 31.0%. Currently, 22.7% of the population is engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 22.7% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoalhaven Heads has 66 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that collectively facilitate 123 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 116 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility in the area. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents, while walking accounts for 4%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.5% of Shoalhaven Heads' residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 17 trips per day, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Shoalhaven Heads's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalhaven Heads' health metrics are close to national benchmarks, based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence for common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1,675 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.2 and 7.7% of residents respectively. Approximately 58.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 37.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,236 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Shoalhaven Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalhaven Heads had a cultural diversity below average, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 54.2%. This compares to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.8%). French (0.6%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, as were Scottish (8.7% vs 8.0%) and Maltese (0.6% vs 0.4%).

Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Shoalhaven Heads is 56 years, notably higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years, and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 20.0% of the population in Shoalhaven Heads, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 7.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group grew from 6.3% to 7.8%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 14.6% to 12.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalhaven Heads' age structure. The 35-44 cohort is projected to show the strongest growth at 27%, adding 85 residents to reach a total of 395. However, population declines are projected for both the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.