Shoalhaven Heads

Shoalhaven Heads has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Shoalhaven Heads is estimated at around 2914 people. This reflects a decrease of 334 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3248 people. The current population estimate of 2907 people was calculated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 741 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, population projections indicate an increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities, with the suburb expected to expand by 331 persons to reach a total of 3245 people by 2041, reflecting an increase of 11.1% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Shoalhaven Heads, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Shoalhaven Heads averaged approximately 12 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 63 homes. As of FY-26, 9 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, suggesting that new supply is likely keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $855,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

In FY-26, $13.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoalhaven Heads shows approximately 58% of the construction activity per person and places among the 50th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The population density is around 326 people per approval, reflecting a low density area. Future projections show Shoalhaven Heads adding approximately 324 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Shoalhaven Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area. Notable projects include Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan 2041, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, South Pacific Offshore Wind Project, and Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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The employment environment in Shoalhaven Heads shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Shoalhaven Heads has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.1% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In that month, 1,063 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.8% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Shoalhaven Heads lagged significantly at 43.7%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. A moderate 16.5% of residents worked from home, based on Census responses, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and accommodation & food services. Shoalhaven Heads had a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with only 1.0% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force decreased by 1.6%, while employment decreased by 2.7%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 1.2%, labour force contract by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Shoalhaven Heads. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, estimated that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shoalhaven Heads' employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Shoalhaven Heads has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $39,820 while the average stands at $61,678. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $43,929 (median) and $68,043 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalhaven Heads fall between the 5th and 13th percentiles nationally. The data indicates that 33.1% of the population (964 individuals) have incomes ranging from $400 to $799, differing from broader area patterns where incomes between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Shoalhaven Heads displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shoalhaven Heads, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoalhaven Heads was at 55.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.5% and rented ones at 19.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Shoalhaven Heads was $365, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Shoalhaven Heads' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Shoalhaven Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.3% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Shoalhaven Heads shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (31.0%).

A total of 22.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoalhaven Heads has 66 active public transport stops offering mixed bus services. These are covered by 7 routes, collectively facilitating 123 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 116 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outwards using cars at 94%, while 4% walk. Average vehicle ownership is 1.1 per dwelling, below regional averages. According to the 2021 Census, 16.5% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 17 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Shoalhaven Heads's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalhaven Heads' health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1,496 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.2 and 7.7% of residents respectively. About 58.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 39.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,142 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Shoalhaven Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalhaven Heads had a lower cultural diversity, with 85.7% born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.2%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, French (0.6%) and Scottish (8.7%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 8.0%, respectively. Maltese was also slightly higher at 0.6%.

Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Shoalhaven Heads is 56 years, notably higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and significantly higher than Australia's average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 19.9% of the population, compared to Regional NSW's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.4%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 13.0% to 15.0%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 6.3% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 14.6% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalhaven Heads's age structure. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 56%, adding 69 residents to reach a total of 195. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 55 to 64 cohorts.