Shoalhaven Heads

Population growth drivers in Shoalhaven Heads are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Shoalhaven Heads is around 3,184 people. This figure reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census count of 3,248 people, indicating a decline of 64 individuals (2.0%). AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as of Jun 2024 was 3,150, with an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to the total. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 810 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver of population growth in recent periods has been overseas migration.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Shoalhaven Heads is projected to experience population growth just below the median rate for locations outside capital cities. The suburb's population is expected to increase by 419 persons over this period, reflecting a total increase of 14.8%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shoalhaven Heads according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Shoalhaven Heads averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 67 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 1.4 people moved to the area for each dwelling built; however, this figure decreased to 0.6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $855,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoalhaven Heads shows approximately 60% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 48th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New development consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 340 people per dwelling approval, Shoalhaven Heads exhibits characteristics of a low density area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, population forecasts indicate Shoalhaven Heads will gain approximately 471 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth; however, buyers may encounter growing competition as the population increases.

Shoalhaven Heads has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are anticipated to affect this area. Notable projects include Illawarra-Shoalhaven Regional Transport Plan 2041, Sydney-Canberra Rail Connectivity And Capacity, South Pacific Offshore Wind Project, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

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Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Shoalhaven Heads has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 1.4% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of this date, 1,239 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Shoalhaven Heads lagged significantly at 43.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and accommodation & food. The area had particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.7 times the regional level.

In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 1% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment levels increased by 3.2% and labour force increased by 2.6% during the year to June 2025 in Shoalhaven Heads, resulting in a fall in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, the labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offered further insight into potential future demand within Shoalhaven Heads. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggested that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shoalhaven Heads's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Shoalhaven Heads' median income among taxpayers was $39,820, with an average of $61,678. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median of $49,459 and average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $44,841 (median) and $69,456 (average). The 2021 Census indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Shoalhaven Heads fall between the 5th and 13th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $400 - $799 earnings band captures 33.1% of the community (1,053 individuals), differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 band dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 6th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Shoalhaven Heads displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Shoalhaven Heads, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.6% houses and 30.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.8% houses and 12.2% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Shoalhaven Heads was 55.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (25.5%) or rented (19.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $365, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $350. Nationally, Shoalhaven Heads's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Shoalhaven Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.3% of all households, including 17.3% couples with children, 35.6% couples without children, and 7.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 38.7%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Shoalhaven Heads shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (31.0%). A total of 22.7% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Shoalhaven Heads Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 173 students. The school focuses on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. The area has limited local school capacity (5.4 places per 100 residents vs 12.7 regionally), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Shoalhaven Heads indicates that there are 55 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 7 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 123 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 116 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 17 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoalhaven Heads is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shoalhaven Heads faces significant health challenges across various age groups. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 51%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 49.3%.

Common medical conditions include arthritis (affecting 14.2% of residents) and mental health issues (7.7%). About 58.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 59.4% in Rest of NSW. The population aged 65 and over is 37.9%, higher than the Rest of NSW's 27.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Shoalhaven Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shoalhaven Heads had a cultural diversity level below average, with 85.7% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% being citizens, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Shoalhaven Heads, comprising 54.2% of people, compared to 52.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.1%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (9.8%).

Notably, French ethnicity was overrepresented at 0.6%, Scottish at 8.7%, and Maltese at 0.6%.

Shoalhaven Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Shoalhaven Heads is 56 years, which is notably higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and significantly exceeds Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 20.1% of the population in Shoalhaven Heads, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 15-24 cohort makes up only 7.8%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 6.3% to 7.8%, while the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has declined from 14.6% to 12.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoalhaven Heads's age structure. The 35-44 cohort is projected to grow by 32%, adding 95 residents to reach a total of 398. Conversely, the number of individuals aged 55 to 64 is expected to decrease by 16%.