Shearwater

Shearwater lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Shearwater is around 2,190 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,051 people, marking a growth of 139 individuals (6.8%). The latest estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population count of 2,170 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, along with an additional 59 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 638 persons per square kilometer. Shearwater's growth rate exceeded both its SA4 region (4.7%) and state averages during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.0% to overall population gains.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are used, adjusted employing weighted aggregation methods. Projected demographic shifts indicate an above median population growth in regional areas nationally. By 2041, Shearwater is projected to grow by 309 persons, reflecting a total increase of 15.3% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Shearwater when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Shearwater has experienced around 21 dwelling approvals per year. Approximately 108 homes were approved between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 to date. Each dwelling built over the past five financial years has resulted in an average of 2.1 new residents per year.

The average construction value for new homes is $506,000, which is moderately above regional levels. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled $551,000, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Tas., Shearwater has 74.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, recent development activity has moderated.

All recent building activity consists of detached houses, preserving Shearwater's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The area has approximately 134 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts suggest Shearwater will gain 336 residents by 2041. Current development patterns indicate new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Shearwater has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance: Hawley Foreshore Shared Pathway Project, Entrance to Port Sorell Roundabout Improvements, Cradle Coast NRM - Rice Grass Control Program, and Port Sorell Area Drainage. These are key projects likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Shearwater demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Shearwater has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025, lower than Rest of Tas.'s 3.9%.

Employment grew by an estimated 2.4% over the past year. There are 879 residents employed currently, with a participation rate of 44.6%, significantly lower than Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, with notable concentration in education & training at 1.2 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 5.8% compared to the regional average of 8.4%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.5%, with unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Rest of Tas. saw employment decline by 0.5% and labour force decline by 0.6%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shearwater's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Shearwater's median taxpayer income was $43,275 and average income was $53,365 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average of that year. The Rest of Tas., however, had a median income of $47,358 and an average income of $57,384 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022, current estimates for Shearwater's median income would be approximately $49,260 and average income would be around $60,745 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Shearwater fall between the 7th and 9th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort in Shearwater consists of 31.6% of locals (692 people) with incomes in the $400 - $799 category, which differs from patterns in the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 range dominates at 28.5%. After accounting for housing costs, 86.5% of income remains in Shearwater, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Shearwater is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Shearwater, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.7% consisting of semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. This is comparable to Non-Metro Tas., where 90.3% of dwellings are houses and 9.7% are other dwelling types. Home ownership in Shearwater stood at 53.6%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 24.7% and rented dwellings making up 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Shearwater was $295, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s figure of $250. Nationally, Shearwater's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Shearwater features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households are the majority, accounting for 66.3% of all households. They consist of couples with children (17.0%), couples without children (40.2%), and single parent families (7.6%). Non-family households make up the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.2% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Shearwater exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 16.0%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 28.4%.

School and university attendance comprises 19.6% of the community, including 7.4% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education. Educational facilities seem to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Shearwater is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shearwater faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is low at approximately 48% (~1,058 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.7%) and mental health issues (9.0%). About 56.2% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of Tas. figure of 61.1%. Shearwater has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 41.5% (908 people), compared to Rest of Tas.'s 25.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Shearwater is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Shearwater's population showed low cultural diversity: 85.6% were born in Australia, 92.2% were citizens, and 97.3% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 51.8%, compared to 42.4% across Rest of Tas. The top three ancestral groups were English (37.3%), Australian (33.5%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notable differences existed in Welsh (0.7% vs regional 0.4%), Australian Aboriginal (3.2% vs 4.7%), and Lebanese (0.2% vs 0.0%) representation.

Shearwater ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Shearwater's median age is 58 years, which is notably higher than Rest of Tas.'s 45 years and well above Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 20.4% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 6.8%. This concentration of individuals aged 65-74 is significantly higher than the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of individuals aged 75 to 84 has increased from 13.5% to 15.5%, while those aged 35 to 44 have increased from 7.7% to 9.0%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45 to 54 has declined from 10.2% to 8.3%, and those aged 5 to 14 have decreased from 9.1% to 8.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shearwater's age structure. The number of individuals aged 85 and above is projected to grow exceptionally, increasing by 179 people (146%) from 122 to 302. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 84% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. In contrast, population declines are projected for individuals aged 0 to 4 and those aged 25 to 34.