Mornington (Tas.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of Mornington (Tas.) as of November 2025 is around 2,356. This reflects a decrease of 113 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,469 people in the suburb. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,328 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 558 persons per square kilometer in Mornington (Tas.). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group post-2032, the Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected in Mornington (Tas.). The area is expected to increase by 207 persons to reach an estimated population of 2,563 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 12.0% over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

The level of residential development activity in Mornington is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Mornington has seen around 7 new homes approved per year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 37 homes were approved, with 1 more approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of approximately 0.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these years.

The supply of new dwellings is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average development value of new dwellings stands at $376,000, in line with regional trends. This financial year has also seen $1.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. In comparison to Greater Hobart, Mornington has significantly less development activity, 52.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

Nationally, this activity is also below average, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining Mornington's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 1225 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Mornington adding 282 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Mornington has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Homes Tasmania - 155 Cambridge Road Residential Development, Glebe Hill Village, TasTAFE Water and Energy Trades Centre of Excellence, and the Cambridge-Clarese Recycled Water Interconnector. The following list highlights those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Mornington lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Mornington has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 6.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 1,198 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.0% higher than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Mornington matches Greater Hobart's 61.6%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to the regional average of 6.6%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident, as recorded in the Census, indicates higher-than-average local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Mornington's labour force decreased by 1.5% while employment fell by 1.0%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Hobart saw employment contract by 1.5%, the labour force fall by 1.6%, and unemployment decrease by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% in five years and 13.8% in ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Mornington had a median taxpayer income of $46,280 and an average of $56,272 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Hobart having a median income of $51,272 and an average of $63,777. As of September 2025, estimates suggest Mornington's median income will be approximately $52,681 and the average will be around $64,054, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 13.83% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that Mornington ranks modestly in household, family, and personal incomes, between the 30th and 31st percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 35.6% of Mornington's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is similar to regional levels where this cohort also represents 32.2%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mornington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings. In comparison, Hobart metro had 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington stood at 27.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, below Hobart metro's $1,538. Weekly rent in Mornington averaged $340, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.8 percent of all households, including 24.3 percent couples with children, 23.8 percent couples without children, and 17.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.2 percent, with lone person households at 28.1 percent and group households comprising 5.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Greater Hobart average.

Educational attainment in Mornington aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 22.2%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 32.8%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (27.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.5%, including 9.7% in primary education, 5.3% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education. MacKillop Catholic College serves Mornington with an enrollment of 814 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1039) with balanced educational opportunities. Secondary education dominates with one school, while primary students typically attend schools in adjacent catchments. The area functions as an education hub with 34.5 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 14.3 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington has 35 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 41 different routes that together facilitate 4,230 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Mornington is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 110 meters from the nearest stop.

On an average day, there are 604 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 120 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington faces significant health challenges, as indicated by recent data. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older residents.

Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 49% of Mornington's total population (~1,165 people) having it, compared to the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 12.1% and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 61.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Hobart's 64.2%. Mornington has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.5% (388 people), compared to Greater Hobart's 21.8%. The health outcomes among seniors generally align with the overall population's health profile.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 85.2% being citizens, 84.3% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 41.4%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 2.2%, compared to Greater Hobart's 0.9%.

In ancestry, the top groups were English (32.3%), Australian (31.2%), and Other (6.8%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (4.5%) and Polish (0.8%) groups had higher representation than regional averages of 2.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Samoan representation was also notable at 0.2%.

Mornington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Mornington has a median age of 35, which is lower than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 21.7% of Mornington's population, higher than Greater Hobart's percentage but slightly below the national average of 14.5%. The 65-74 cohort makes up 8.0% of Mornington's population. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 13.2% to 15.4%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 20.0% to 21.7%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort has decreased from 11.2% to 9.1%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 11.6% to 9.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Mornington's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 64%, adding 148 people and reaching a total of 379 from its current figure of 230. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 35-44 age groups are expected to decrease in number.