Mornington (Tas.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Mornington (Tas.) had an estimated population of around 2,424 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects a decrease of 45 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,469 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 2,343 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 33 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level results in a density ratio of 574 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate post-2032 growth by age group, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 212 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.9% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Mornington has seen around 5 new homes approved per year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 29 homes were approved, with 1 more approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 0.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed during this period.

The supply of new dwellings has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average value of new dwellings developed is $376,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $1.4 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. When compared to Greater Hobart, Mornington has significantly less development activity, 63.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 350 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Mornington adding 216 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mornington has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 19thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that could affect this region: Homes Tasmania - 155 Cambridge Road Residential Development, Glebe Hill Village, TasTAFE Water and Energy Trades Centre of Excellence, and Cambridge-Clarence Recycled Water Interconnector. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Mornington lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Mornington has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 6.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,167 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.2% higher than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Hobart's 63.8%. Census responses show that only 5.8% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Professional & technical services have a limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to the regional average of 6.6%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicates local employment opportunities above the norm. Based on AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data from broader statistical areas, during the year to September 2025, Mornington's labour force decreased by 1.3% and employment decreased by 1.1%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Hobart saw employment contract by 0.7%, the labour force fall by 0.9%, and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Mornington has a median taxpayer income of $46,280 and an average income of $56,272 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Greater Hobart having a median income of $54,577 and an average income of $65,190. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.6% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,723 (median) and $61,674 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mornington rank modestly, between the 30th and 31st percentiles. In Mornington, 35.6% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which aligns with regional levels at 32.2%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington, with only 83.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mornington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Hobart metro had 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington stood at 27.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented at 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, below Hobart metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Mornington was $340, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.8% of all households, including 24.3% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 5.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Greater Hobart average.

Educational attainment in Mornington aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.2%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (27.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.5%, with 9.7% in primary education, 5.3% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 5.3% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington has 34 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 80 different routes that together facilitate 4,645 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 113 meters from the nearest stop. Most Mornington residents commute outward daily. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 87% of residents, while buses account for 9%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, only 5.8% of Mornington residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 663 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 136 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mornington is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions that affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population, which is around 1,199 people, compared to Greater Hobart's 51.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in Mornington, impacting 12.1% and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 61.6% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Hobart's 65.5%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Mornington has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than Greater Hobart's 19.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, but they are broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's population showed low cultural diversity, with 85.2% being citizens born in Australia speaking English exclusively at home (84.3%, 87.0%). Christianity was the dominant religion at 41.4%. Notably, 'Other' religions were overrepresented at 2.2% compared to Greater Hobart's 1.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (32.3%), Australian (31.2%), and Other (6.8%). There were notable differences in representation for certain ethnicities: Australian Aboriginal was higher at 4.5% (vs regional 3.0%), Polish remained similar at 0.8%, and Samoan increased to 0.2%.

Mornington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Mornington's median age is 35, which is lower than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 21.3% of Mornington's population, higher than Greater Hobart but lower than the national average of 14.4%. The 15-24 cohort makes up 8.7%, which is less prevalent compared to Greater Hobart. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 13.2% to 15.8%, while the 25-34 cohort rose from 20.0% to 21.3%. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort decreased from 11.2% to 8.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 11.6% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Mornington's age structure. The 45-54 group is expected to grow by 59%, reaching 378 people from 237, while the 35-44 group will decrease by 54 residents.