Mornington (Tas.)

Population growth drivers in Mornington are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Mornington (Tas.) is around 2,408 people. This represents a decrease of 61 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,469 people. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 2,392, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of an additional 33 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 570 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration has been the primary driver of population growth in recent periods for this area.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by these data and to estimate post-2032 growth by age group, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods from LGA to SA2 levels. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase its population by 191 persons to reach approximately 2,599 people by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of around 7.3% over these 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mornington, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Mornington has seen approximately five new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years 2021 and 2025, around 29 homes were approved, with two more approved so far in the current financial year 2026. Despite population decline, new supply has likely met demand, offering buyers good choice.

Developers target the premium market segment, with average dwelling values at $376,000. This year, there have been $1.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Mornington's residential nature. Compared to Greater Hobart, Mornington has significantly less development activity, 62.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although building activity has accelerated recently. Overall, it remains under the national average, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations.

Recent building activity consists entirely of detached houses, maintaining Mornington's low-density character focused on family homes. With around 339 people per approval, Mornington reflects a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 175 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Mornington has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects are Homes Tasmania - 155 Cambridge Road Residential Development, Glebe Hill Village, TasTAFE Water and Energy Trades Centre of Excellence, and the Cambridge-Clarence Recycled Water Interconnector. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Mornington lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Mornington has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 6.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,136 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.4% higher than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Mornington stands at 61.3%, compared to Greater Hobart's 63.7%. Census responses show that only 5.8% of residents work from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 4.3%, compared to Greater Hobart's 6.6%. The worker-to-resident ratio of 0.7 indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Mornington's labour force decreased by 0.9% alongside a 1.0% employment decline, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Hobart recorded employment growth of 0.1%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment falling 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mornington's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Mornington had a median income among taxpayers of $46,280 and an average income of $56,272. This is lower than national averages, which were $54,577 and $65,190 respectively for Greater Hobart. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $51,348 (median) and $62,434 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mornington rank modestly, between the 30th and 31st percentiles. Income distribution data reveals that 35.6% of Mornington's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the broader area at 32.2%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mornington, with only 83.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Mornington is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mornington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.4% houses and 4.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Hobart metro's 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mornington stood at 27.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.6% and rented ones at 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,387, lower than Hobart metro's $1,517. Median weekly rent in Mornington was $340, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Mornington's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Mornington features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 66.8% of all households, including 24.3% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 17.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.2%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 5.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Greater Hobart average.

Educational attainment in Mornington aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.2%, significantly lower than the SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 35.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.8%) and certificates (27.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.5% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.7% in primary, 5.3% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 5.3% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mornington has 34 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 80 different routes that together facilitate 4645 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 113 meters from the nearest stop. Mornington is predominantly residential, and most residents commute outside the area. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 87% of residents, while buses are used by 9%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 5.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 663 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 136 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mornington is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Mornington faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low in Mornington at approximately 49% (~1,191 people), compared to 51.7% across Greater Hobart and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.1 and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 61.6% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% in Greater Hobart. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Mornington has 16.2% of residents aged 65 and over (390 people), lower than Greater Hobart's 20.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings.

Mornington ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mornington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.2% of its population being citizens, 84.3% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Mornington, comprising 41.4% of people. The most apparent overrepresentation was in Other religions, which made up 2.2% of the population compared to 1.1% across Greater Hobart.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English at 32.3%, Australian at 31.2%, and Other at 6.8%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.5% in Mornington (compared to 3.0% regionally), Polish was also overrepresented at 0.8%, and Samoan was represented at 0.2% (while it was not present regionally).

Mornington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Mornington has a median age of 35, which is younger than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and slightly below Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 21.3% of Mornington's population, higher than Greater Hobart but lower than the national average of 14.6%. The 65-74 cohort is less prevalent in Mornington at 8.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.2% to 15.7%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 20.0% to 21.3%. Conversely, the 15 to 24 cohort declined from 11.2% to 9.3%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.6% to 10.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Mornington's age structure. The 45 to 54 group is projected to grow by 60%, reaching 389 people from 243. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.