Geilston Bay

Population growth drivers in Geilston Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Geilston Bay's population is estimated at around 3,631. This reflects an increase of 170 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,461. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,612 following examination of ABS ERP data release in Jun 2024, and an additional 56 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of approximately 470 persons per square kilometer. Geilston Bay's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (4.3%) and metropolitan area, indicating it as a growth leader. Natural growth contributed around 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year are used with adjustments employing weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future projections anticipate above median population growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Geilston Bay expected to grow by 669 persons to reach approximately 4,300 by 2041, reflecting an increase of around 18.5% over these 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Geilston Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Geilston Bay has experienced approximately 25 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 126 homes. In FY-26, four approvals have been recorded so far. Each dwelling is estimated to accommodate two new residents annually on average, indicating steady demand and supporting property values. The average construction cost of new homes is $375,000, in line with broader regional development trends.

This financial year, $766,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. Over the past five years, Geilston Bay has seen 16.0% more development per person than Greater Hobart, maintaining reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years.

Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count of 361 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Future projections indicate Geilston Bay will add approximately 671 residents by 2041. Current development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Geilston Bay has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 17thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this region. Notable initiatives are: Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor (NSTC), Tasman Private Hospital, Hobart City Deal, and Intercity Cycleway Enhancements.

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Geilston Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Geilston Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.9%.

This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data and is below Greater Hobart's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Geilston Bay is broadly similar to Greater Hobart's 61.6%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area has a particular specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

However, accommodation & food services are under-represented, with only 6.0% of Geilston Bay's workforce compared to 8.0% in Greater Hobart. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.6% while employment decreased by 1.2%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Hobart recorded an employment decline of 1.5%, labour force decline of 1.6%, and unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Geilston Bay. These projections suggest national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geilston Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Geilston Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $51,356 and an average level of $61,815. These figures are below the national average and compare to levels of $51,272 and $63,777 across Greater Hobart respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,459 for median income and $70,364 for average income as of September 2025. Census data reveals personal income ranks at the 58th percentile ($845 weekly) while household income sits at the 42nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 32.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,172 residents), consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.2% in the same category. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses and Geilston Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Geilston Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Geilston Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 96.7% houses and 3.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Hobart metro's 96.7% houses and 3.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geilston Bay stood at 41.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 41.8% and rented ones at 17.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, higher than Hobart metro's average of $1,538. The median weekly rent figure in Geilston Bay was $380, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Geilston Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Geilston Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.7 percent of all households, including 26.6 percent couples with children, 30.3 percent couples without children, and 10.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.3 percent, with lone person households at 28.9 percent and group households comprising 2.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Hobart average of 2.4.

Geilston Bay shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

University qualification levels in Geilston Bay stand at 29.0%, slightly below the SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 32.2% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 22.4%.

A significant 24.8% of the population is actively engaged in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education. Educational institutions in the area comprise Lindisfarne North Primary School and Australian Christian College - Hobart, serving a total of 455 students. The area offers typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 998) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geilston Bay has 40 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by a total of 54 different routes, carrying out 5343 weekly passenger trips collectively. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 151 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 763 trips per day across all routes, which breaks down to approximately 133 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Geilston Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geilston Bay faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of its total population (~1,875 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.9 and 9.9% of residents respectively. However, 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 64.2% across Greater Hobart. The area has a higher percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.0% (871 people) compared to Greater Hobart's 21.8%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Geilston Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geilston Bay had a below average level of cultural diversity, with 86.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.1% of people in Geilston Bay. Hinduism was overrepresented, making up 1.4% compared to 1.9% across Greater Hobart.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.9%), Australian (29.8%), and Irish (9.7%). Polish (0.8%) was notably overrepresented compared to the regional figure of 0.7%, as were French (0.5%) and Welsh (0.5%).

Geilston Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Geilston Bay has a median age of 42, which is higher than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 12.2% of Geilston Bay's population, compared to Greater Hobart, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 12.2%. Post the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 13.3% to 15.0%, and the 85+ cohort increased from 2.6% to 3.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort decreased from 13.2% to 10.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Geilston Bay's age profile. Notably, the 45-54 group is projected to grow by 73%, adding 314 people and reaching 743 from 428. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 0-4 and 65-74 cohorts.