Geilston Bay

Population growth drivers in Geilston Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Geilston Bay is estimated at around 3,658 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 197 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,461 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,645 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 474 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 5.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.9%) and Greater Hobart, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the suburb, with an expected increase of 674 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 17.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Geilston Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Geilston Bay has seen approximately 26 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 130 homes. By FY-26, there have been 5 approvals recorded so far. On average, 1.9 new residents arrive per year per new home between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new properties is $378,000, suggesting focus on the premium market.

Commercial approvals in FY-26 amount to $699,000, showing minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Hobart, Geilston Bay has 20.0% more development per person over five years but recent activity has moderated. Recent construction comprises 92.0% detached houses and 8.0% medium-high density housing, preserving low-density nature attracting space-seeking buyers with around 301 people per approval.

Population forecasts estimate Geilston Bay will gain 647 residents by 2041, suggesting current development rates should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current projections.

Geilston Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 24thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes will affect the area more than local improvements. AreaSearch has identified zero projects expected to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor (NSTC), Tasman Private Hospital, Hobart City Deal, and Intercity Cycleway Enhancements.

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Geilston Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Geilston Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.8%. The area's unemployment rate is 2.2% below Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%, while workforce participation is similar at 63.8%.

According to Census responses, 8.0% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. Public administration & safety has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Accommodation & food has limited presence at 6.0%, compared to 8.0% regionally.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between September 2024 and 2025, labour force decreased by 0.8% alongside a 0.5% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 0.3 percentage points. In Greater Hobart, employment contracted by 0.7%, labour force fell by 0.9%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geilston Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Geilston Bay suburb is $51,438 and average income is $61,863. This contrasts with Greater Hobart's median income of $54,577 and average income of $65,190. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.6% since June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 is approximately $56,376 and estimated average income is $67,802. From the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at 58th percentile ($845 weekly) and household income at 42nd percentile. Income brackets indicate 32.3% of population (1,181 individuals) fall within $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to surrounding region's 32.2%. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in 6th decile.

Geilston Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluation showed that 96.7% of dwellings in Geilston Bay were houses, with the remaining 3.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In contrast, Hobart metro had 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geilston Bay was at 41.2%, compared to mortgaged dwellings at 41.8% and rented ones at 17.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,625, higher than Hobart metro's $1,517. The median weekly rent figure for Geilston Bay was $380, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Geilston Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 compared to the national figure of $375.

Geilston Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.7 percent of all households, including 26.6 percent couples with children, 30.3 percent couples without children, and 10.2 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.3 percent, with lone person households at 28.9 percent and group households comprising 2.3 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Hobart average of 2.4.

Geilston Bay shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

University qualification levels in Geilston Bay stand at 29.0%, slightly below the SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 32.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 22.4%.

A total of 24.8% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geilston Bay has 40 active public transport stops operating within it, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by a total of 69 different routes, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 5,225 trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 151 meters from the nearest stop. As it is primarily a residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. Cars are the dominant mode of transportation, used by 86% of residents, while only 10% use buses. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census data, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions, a relatively low 8.0% of residents work from home. The service frequency averages out to 746 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Geilston Bay are marginally below the national average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geilston Bay's health indicators show below-average outcomes, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~1,890 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.9%) and mental health issues (9.9%). 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Greater Hobart. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 24.3% of residents aged 65 and over (888 people), higher than the 19.9% in Greater Hobart. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Geilston Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geilston Bay, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity: 86.7% were Australian-born, 92.1% were citizens, and 93.3% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (46.1%). Hinduism was overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Hobart's 2.8%.

Top ancestry groups were English (34.9%), Australian (29.8%), and Irish (9.7%). Polish, French, and Welsh ethnicities showed notable divergences: Polish at 0.8% (vs regional 0.8%), French at 0.5% (vs 0.3%), and Welsh at 0.5% (vs 0.5%).

Geilston Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Geilston Bay's median age is 42, which is higher than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and exceeds the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 12.2% of Geilston Bay's population, compared to Greater Hobart, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 11.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has increased from 13.3% to 15.1%, and the 85+ cohort has risen from 2.6% to 3.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 13.2% to 10.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Geilston Bay's age profile. The 45-54 group is projected to grow by 71%, reaching 745 people from the current 435. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 65-74 and 35-44 cohorts.