Geilston Bay

Population growth drivers in Geilston Bay are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Geilston Bay's population is estimated at approximately 3,654 as of May 2026, reflecting an increase of 193 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 3,461 for the suburb. This growth equates to a 5.6% increase and is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,650 residents based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 473 persons per square kilometer. Geilston Bay's growth exceeded the SA4 region (3.9%) and Greater Hobart since the 2021 census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Projected demographic shifts indicate an above median population growth for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The suburb is expected to grow by 595 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 16.2% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Geilston Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Geilston Bay has seen approximately 26 new home approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling about 130 homes. In FY-26 so far, there have been 5 approvals. On average, around 2.3 people move to the area each year with each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a healthy demand for housing in the area. The average construction cost value of new homes is approximately $378,000, suggesting that developers are targeting the premium market.

This financial year has seen $699,000 in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential developments. Geilston Bay has experienced slightly more development than Greater Hobart over the past five years, with 20.0% above the regional average per person. However, recent periods have shown a moderation in development activity.

Recent construction comprises predominantly detached houses at 92.0%, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 8.0%. This maintains the area's low density nature, attracting space-seeking buyers. Geilston Bay has around 302 people per approval, reflecting its status as a low-density area. According to AreaSearch quarterly estimates, the population is forecasted to increase by approximately 591 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Geilston Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 0 projects that could impact this area. Notable projects include Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor (NSTC), Tasman Private Hospital, Hobart City Deal, and Intercity Cycleway Enhancements. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Geilston Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Geilston Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 1.9% as of December 2025. This rate is 2.1 percentage points lower than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Geilston Bay is on par with Greater Hobart at 63.7%. According to the Census, 8.0% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. Public administration & safety has a particularly notable concentration in Geilston Bay with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, accommodation & food services have limited presence with 6.0% employment compared to 8.0% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, labour force decreased by 0.4%, while employment declined by 0.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Hobart where employment rose by 0.1%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geilston Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population growth for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for the financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Geilston Bay is $51,438 and average income is $61,863. This is lower than Greater Hobart's median income of $54,577 and average income of $65,190. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $57,070 and average income would be around $68,637 by that date. According to the 2021 Census, Geilston Bay's personal income ranks at the 58th percentile ($845 weekly) and household income is at the 42nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that 32.3% of residents (1,180 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to surrounding regions where this cohort also represents 32.2%. After housing costs, 86.2% of income remains for other expenses. Geilston Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Geilston Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Geilston Bay, as per the latest Census, 96.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 3.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Hobart metro's figures of 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geilston Bay stood at 41.2%, with mortgaged properties making up 41.8% and rented dwellings accounting for 17.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, higher than Hobart metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Geilston Bay was $380, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Geilston Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Geilston Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.7% of all households, including 26.6% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.3%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Hobart average of 2.4.

Geilston Bay shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

University qualification levels in Geilston Bay stand at 29.0%, slightly below the SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 18.5% of residents holding one. Postgraduate qualifications and graduate diplomas follow, at 6.1% and 4.4% respectively.

Vocational credentials are prominent, with 32.2% of residents aged 15+ possessing them. Advanced diplomas account for 9.8%, while certificates make up 22.4%. A significant 24.8% of the population is currently engaged in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary, 5.9% in secondary, and 4.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geilston Bay has 40 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 69 different routes that together facilitate 5225 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 151 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 86%, while buses account for 10%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 746 trips daily, equating to around 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Geilston Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geilston Bay faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 52% of the total population (~1,888 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.9 and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 63.2% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Greater Hobart. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (895 people), higher than the 20.0% in Greater Hobart. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Geilston Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geilston Bay had a cultural diversity level below average, with 86.7% of its population born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 93.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 46.1%. Hinduism showed overrepresentation at 1.4%, compared to 2.8% regionally.

Top ancestry groups were English (34.9%), Australian (29.8%), and Irish (9.7%). Polish (0.8%) and French (0.5%) were notably overrepresented, while Welsh showed similar representation (0.5%) as the regional average.

Geilston Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Geilston Bay is 43 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Hobart's average of 39 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Hobart, Geilston Bay has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (12.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 13.3% to 15.1%, while those aged 85 and above increased from 2.6% to 3.9%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 declined from 13.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Geilston Bay's age structure. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 71%, reaching 732 people from 427. Meanwhile, the populations aged 0-4 and 65-74 are projected to decrease.