Geilston Bay - Risdon

Population growth drivers in Geilston Bay - Risdon are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Geilston Bay - Risdon's population is approximately 3,642 as of Feb 2026. This represents an increase of 190 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,452. The growth is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 3,626 in June 2024 and 61 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 418 persons per square kilometer. Geilston Bay - Risdon's population grew by 5.5% between the 2021 Census and Feb 2026, exceeding the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 57.3% to this increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 and adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Future population growth is projected to be above median for national statistical areas, with an expected increase of 675 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 18.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Geilston Bay - Risdon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Geilston Bay - Risdon has seen approximately 26 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 134 homes were approved, with an additional four approved so far in FY26. On average, about 1.9 new residents have arrived per year for each new home over these five years.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties has been around $268,000. In the current financial year, there have been $766,000 in commercial approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to Greater Hobart, Geilston Bay - Risdon shows moderately higher new home approvals, with 24.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This preserves buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. New development consists of 90.0% standalone homes and 10.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. The population density is around 319 people per approval, reflecting a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Geilston Bay - Risdon is projected to add 659 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Geilston Bay - Risdon has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 0 projects likely impacting this area. Notable projects include Northern Suburbs Transit Corridor (NSTC), Tasman Private Hospital, Hobart City Deal, and Intercity Cycleway Enhancements. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Geilston Bay - Risdon demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Geilston Bay - Risdon has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 1.8% as of September 2025. In this period, 1969 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.2 percentage points lower than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation was 66.8%, slightly higher than Greater Hobart's 63.8%. According to Census responses, 8.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area had a particular specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, accommodation & food employed only 6.0% of local workers, below Greater Hobart's 8.0%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, and employment declined by 0.5%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Hobart recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.9%, with unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geilston Bay - Risdon's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows Geilston Bay - Risdon SA2 had an average national income level. The median income was $55,984 and the average income was $67,024. This contrasts with Greater Hobart's median income of $54,577 and average income of $65,190. Based on a 9.6% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,358 (median) and $73,458 (average). Census 2021 data shows personal income ranked at the 65th percentile ($886 weekly) and household income at the 49th percentile. Income distribution shows that 35.2% of residents (1,281 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, similar to the surrounding region's 32.2%. After housing costs, 86.6% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Geilston Bay - Risdon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Geilston Bay - Risdon's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 97.1% houses and 2.8% other dwellings. Hobart metro had 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geilston Bay - Risdon was 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.3% and rented ones at 17.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,625, higher than Hobart metro's $1,517. Median weekly rent was $380, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Geilston Bay - Risdon's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,625 vs Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 vs the national figure of $375.

Geilston Bay - Risdon has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 70.3% of all households, including 28.8% couples with children, 29.3% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.7%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Greater Hobart average.

Educational attainment in Geilston Bay - Risdon aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

University qualifications in Geilston Bay - Risdon show that 29.5% of residents aged 15 and above have such qualifications, which is higher than the Tasmania average of 25.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 18.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.3% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 33.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas held by 9.8% of residents and certificates held by 23.4%. Educational participation is high in the area, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 5.8% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Geilston Bay - Risdon has 40 active public transport stops offering mixed bus services. These stops are covered by 69 routes, facilitating 5,225 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents located an average of 178 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commute outward using cars (86%) and buses (10%). Vehicle ownership averages 1.6 per dwelling, above regional norms. Only 8% work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 746 trips daily across all routes, or approximately 130 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Geilston Bay - Risdon is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geilston Bay - Risdon faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~1,897 people), slightly lagging behind the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.0% and 10.2% of residents respectively. However, 64.6% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Greater Hobart. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 21.7% of residents aged 65 and over (789 people), which is higher than the 19.9% in Greater Hobart. National rankings are broadly in line with the general population.

Geilston Bay - Risdon ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Geilston Bay-Risdon had low cultural diversity, with 86.8% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 93.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 44.2%. Hinduism was overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to Greater Hobart's 2.8%.

Top ancestry groups were English (34.4%), Australian (29.7%), and Irish (9.4%). Polish (0.9%) and French (0.5%) were also overrepresented, while Australian Aboriginal was underrepresented at 2.2% compared to the regional average of 3.0%.

Geilston Bay - Risdon's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Geilston Bay - Risdon is 41 years, which is higher than Greater Hobart's average of 39 years and slightly exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 35-44 are particularly prominent, making up 15.7% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise a smaller proportion at 12.3%. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of the population aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.0% to 15.7%, and the percentage of individuals aged 85 and above has risen from 2.4% to 3.5%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.4% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Geilston Bay - Risdon's age structure. The number of individuals aged 45-54 is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 326 people (72%) from 451 to 778. Conversely, both the 65-74 and 35-44 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.