Ascot Park

Population growth drivers in Ascot Park are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, the Ascot Park statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 3,929 people. This reflects a growth of 341 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,588 people in the area. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,684, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,929 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Ascot Park (SA2) saw a growth rate of 9.5% since the 2021 Census, exceeding the SA4 region's growth rate of 7.3%, and the state's growth rate. Overseas migration contributed approximately 75.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. Future population trends project an above median growth for the area, with an expected expansion of 562 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Ascot Park recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Ascot Park has experienced around 22 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 114 homes. Six approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, two people move to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $326,000.

In FY-26, there have been $1.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Ascot Park has 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 62nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 65.0% standalone homes and 35.0% attached dwellings, offering choices across price ranges.

New construction favours detached housing more than current patterns suggest, indicating robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 235 people per dwelling approval, Ascot Park shows a developing market. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 414 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Ascot Park has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting this area: Tram Grade Separation Projects, Tonsley Innovation District, Tonsley Administration Hub Redevelopment Opportunity, and Tonsley Village are key projects, with the following detailed as most relevant.

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Employment performance in Ascot Park exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Ascot Park has an educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, below Greater Adelaide's 3.9%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%. As of September 2025, 2,248 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% lower than Greater Adelaide's. Workforce participation is similar to Greater Adelaide's (66.1% vs 61.7%). Healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training dominate local employment, with healthcare being particularly strong at 1.4 times the regional level.

Manufacturing employs only 5.1% of workers compared to Greater Adelaide's 7.0%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.6%, labour force grew by 3.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Adelaide's figures of 3.0% employment growth, 2.9% labour force increase, and 0.1 percentage point unemployment decrease. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows South Australia's employment grew by 1.19%, adding 10,710 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%. National forecasts suggest total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ascot Park's employment mix indicates potential local growth of 7.1% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Ascot Park's median income among taxpayers is $52,320, with an average of $60,429. This is lower than the national average. Greater Adelaide has a median income of $54,808 and an average of $66,852. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.8% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $56,924 (median) and $65,747 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, personal income ranks at the 45th percentile ($783 weekly), with household income at the 27th percentile. The $1,500 - $2,999 earnings band captures 33.8% of Ascot Park residents (1,328 individuals), similar to surrounding regions where this cohort represents 31.8%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 24th percentile.

Ascot Park displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Ascot Park's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 42.4% houses and 57.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Adelaide metro's 70.8% houses and 29.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ascot Park stood at 23.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 45.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,700. Median weekly rent in Ascot Park was $320, compared to Adelaide metro's $330. Nationally, Ascot Park's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ascot Park features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 55.8 percent of all households, including 19.8 percent couples with children, 23.1 percent couples without children, and 11.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 44.2 percent, with lone person households at 37.1 percent and group households comprising 6.8 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.4.

Educational achievement in Ascot Park places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 35.6% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the South Australian average of 25.7% and that of the SA4 region (28.1%). Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (9.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.5% and certificates at 18.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.3% in tertiary education, 7.5% in primary education, and 4.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 14 active stops operating within Ascot Park, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 9 unique routes, collectively facilitating 1039 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 172 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 148 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 74 weekly trips per individual stop.

Ascot Park's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Ascot Park's health metrics closely align with national benchmarks.

The prevalence of common health conditions among its general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Approximately 51% (~2,000 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Ascot Park, affecting 9.0 and 7.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 71.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across Greater Adelaide. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.5% (608 people), compared to Greater Adelaide's 19.2%. Health outcomes among seniors in Ascot Park require more attention than the broader population due to presenting challenges.

Ascot Park is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Ascot Park's population shows significant cultural diversity, with 38.9% born overseas and 35.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ascot Park, comprising 35.1% of its population. Notably, Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Adelaide, making up 9.6% versus an average of 4.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (22.8%), Australian (19.4%), and Other (17.5%). The latter is substantially higher than the regional average of 9.8%. Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Russian at 0.5% versus a regional average of 0.3%, German at 4.9% versus 5.0%, and Lebanese at 0.8% versus 0.3%.

Ascot Park hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Ascot Park's median age is 34 years, which is lower than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Ascot Park has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (22.6%), but fewer residents aged 55-64 (8.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35 to 44 has increased from 15.2% to 15.9%, while the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 9.4% to 8.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Ascot Park's age profile. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 40%, adding 93 residents to reach a total of 329. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 2% (8 people).