Armadale (Vic.)

Armadale is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Armadale (Vic.) is around 10,112, reflecting an increase of 744 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 9,368 in the suburb. This growth, equivalent to a 7.9% increase, is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 10,019 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 159 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to approximately 4,725 persons per square kilometer, placing Armadale in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the suburb. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the suburb expected to grow by approximately 265 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of around 1.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Armadale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Armadale has averaged around 54 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 274 homes. So far in the financial year 2026 (FY-26), 4 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen over this period, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $1,391,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. There have also been $44.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Armadale has significantly less development activity (52.0% below regional average per person), which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. New development consists of 5.0% detached houses and 95.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 26.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 194 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market.

Looking ahead, Armadale is expected to grow by 175 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Armadale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Grandview Prahran, Amara Armadale, Heirloom Armadale, and Mercer Armadale. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Armadale significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Armadale has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, showing a 6.5% employment growth.

As of June 2025, 6,596 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation was at 68.9%, similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.8 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction shows lower representation at 5.3% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.6, indicating ample local employment opportunities. In the past year, employment increased by 6.5%, labour force by 7.0%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point unemployment rise. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's 3.5% employment growth, 4.0% labour force increase, and similar unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armadale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 14.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Armadale's median income among taxpayers was $74,361, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for the financial year 2022. The average income stood at $135,875 in Armadale during this period, compared with figures of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively for Greater Melbourne. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.16% growth since financial year 2022 suggest median income could be approximately $83,403 and average income around $152,397. Census data shows individual earnings in Armadale reach the 96th percentile nationally, at $1,354 weekly. In terms of income distribution, 28.9% of Armadale's population (2,922 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. Notably, 37.4% of residents earn above $3,000/week, indicating strong economic capacity throughout Armadale. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income, and residents rank within the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Armadale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armadale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 25.5% houses and 74.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 16.9% houses and 83.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armadale was at 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.6% and rented ones at 46.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,287. The median weekly rent in Armadale was $421, slightly above Melbourne metro's $425. Nationally, Armadale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Armadale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 54.0% of all households, including 18.6% that are couples with children, 27.1% that are couples without children, and 7.0% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 46.0%, with lone person households at 39.9% and group households comprising 6.1%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.9.

Educational achievement in Armadale places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Armadale is significantly higher than national averages, with 60.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. The area's educational advantage is evident in its high proportion of residents with bachelor degrees (38.9%), postgraduate qualifications (16.8%), and graduate diplomas (5.1%). Vocational pathways account for 17.2%, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (7.2%). Educational participation is notably high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.2% in tertiary, 6.2% in primary, and 5.4% in secondary education.

Armadale has a robust network of 6 schools educating approximately 1,761 students, demonstrating exceptional educational performance with an ICSEA score of 1171. The area's school capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.1, indicating Armadale serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armadale has 61 active public transport stops. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 8 different routes operating, serving a total of 6,573 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have excellent access to transport, with an average distance of 134 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is 939 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately 107 weekly trips per individual stop.

Armadale's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Armadale with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 80% of the total population (8,106 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.0 and 7.3% of residents respectively, while 73.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's figure of 73.3%. Armadale has 20.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,072 people), which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 16.3%. Health outcomes among seniors in Armadale are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Armadale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Armadale's population, as of the 2016 Census, had 19.7% speaking a language other than English at home and 29.9% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 41.3%. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Armadale at 7.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (25.0%), Australian (19.1%), and Other (10.4%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Polish (2.4% vs regional 1.9%), Hungarian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Russian (0.9% vs 0.9%).

Armadale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Armadale is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Armadale has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.1%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Armadale's population aged 75-84 has grown from 6.9% to 8.6%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 10.7% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 12.7% to 11.4%. By 2041, Armadale's population is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 98%, reaching 601 people from 303. This growth is primarily driven by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 86% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 0-4 age cohorts.