Armadale (Vic.)

Armadale is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Armadale (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 10,125 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 757 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,368 people in Armadale (Vic.) (SA2). The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 10,009 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 159 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,731 persons per square kilometer, placing Armadale (Vic.) (SA2) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Armadale's 8.1% growth since the census positions it within 1.6 percentage points of the national average (9.7%). The population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends anticipate lower quartile growth, with the area expected to grow by 264 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 1.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Armadale when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Armadale averaged approximately 65 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 327 homes. As of April 2022, four approvals have been recorded in FY-26. Despite a population decrease during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction cost value for new properties is $1,391,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $31.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Comparatively, Armadale's rate of new dwelling approvals per person is around two-thirds that of Greater Melbourne. Nationally, it ranks among the 84th percentile of areas assessed. Building activity has accelerated in recent years. The current development trend consists of 6.0% detached dwellings and 94.0% townhouses or apartments, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This shift from the current housing mix (26.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With approximately 118 people per approval, Armadale reflects a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Armadale is projected to add 161 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Armadale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 potential impactful projects. Notable ones are Grandview Prahran, Amara Armadale, Heirloom Armadale, and Mercer Armadale. The following details projects likely to have the most relevance.

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AreaSearch analysis places Armadale well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Armadale has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year (AreaSearch aggregation).

As of September 2025, 6,374 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation is at 68.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (1.8 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction has limited presence with 5.3% employment compared to 9.7% regionally.

The worker-to-resident ratio of 0.6 indicates above-normal local employment opportunities. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force by 4.7%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment rise by 3.0% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data (VIC) to 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armadale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 14.9% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Armadale's median income among taxpayers is $74,364. The average income in the suburb is $135,911. This places Armadale in the top percentile nationally. Comparing to Greater Melbourne's median of $57,688 and average of $75,164 highlights Armadale's higher incomes. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Armadale would be approximately $80,499 (median) and $147,124 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals individual earnings in Armadale stand out at the 96th percentile nationally with weekly earnings of $1,354. The earnings profile shows that 28.9% of residents (2,926 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, reflecting patterns seen in the surrounding region where 32.8% similarly occupy this range. This indicates considerable affluence with 37.4% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income. Strong earnings rank residents within the 78th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Armadale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Armadale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 25.5% houses and 74.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 16.9% houses and 83.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armadale stood at 30.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.6% and rented ones at 46.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,458, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,287. Median weekly rent in Armadale was $421, compared to Melbourne metro's $425. Nationally, Armadale's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,458 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Armadale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.0% of all households, including 18.6% couples with children, 27.1% couples without children, and 7.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 46.0%, with lone person households at 39.9% and group households comprising 6.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.9.

Educational achievement in Armadale places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Armadale has a notably high educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above, with 60.8% holding university qualifications compared to the broader national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. This indicates a significant educational advantage for the area, positioning it favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 38.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 16.8% and graduate diplomas at 5.1%. Vocational pathways account for 17.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 10.0% and certificates 7.2%.

Educational participation is notably high in Armadale, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in tertiary education, 6.2% in primary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armadale has 62 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. These are covered by 9 different routes, collectively handling 9,634 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 134 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

Across all routes, there are an average of 1,376 trips per day, which equates to approximately 155 weekly trips per individual stop.

Armadale's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis shows Armadale had strong health performance with low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Private health cover was high at approximately 80% (8,118 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma were most common, affecting 8.0 and 7.3% respectively. 73.3% reported no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 73.3%. Armadale had 20.5% seniors (2,075 people), higher than Greater Melbourne's 16.3%. Senior health outcomes were particularly strong, outperforming the general population in metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Armadale was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armadale's cultural diversity was evident with 19.7% speaking a language other than English at home, as of 2016 Census data. Overseas-born population stood at 29.9%. Christianity was the predominant religion at 41.3%, but Judaism was overrepresented at 7.3% compared to Greater Melbourne's 5.1%.

Top ancestry groups were English (25.0%), Australian (19.1%), and Other (10.4%). Notable divergences existed for Polish (2.4% vs regional 1.9%), Hungarian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Russian (0.9% vs 0.9%).

Armadale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Armadale is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Armadale has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (21.1%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (7.3%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of Armadale's population aged 75-84 has grown from 6.9% to 8.6%, while those aged 15-24 increased from 10.7% to 11.8%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has declined from 12.7% to 11.4%. By 2041, Armadale's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The number of residents aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 98%, reaching 601 from 303. This growth will be led by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 86% of the projected growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 55-64 and 0-4 years.