Aldinga Beach

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aldinga Beach reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Aldinga Beach statistical area's population is estimated at around 11,659, reflecting an increase of 992 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was reported as 10,667. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 11,198 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 170 validated new addresses since the Census date. The Aldinga Beach (SA2) has a population density ratio of approximately 852 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's population growth rate of 9.3% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (6.2%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, the Aldinga Beach (SA2) is expected to expand by 995 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Aldinga Beach among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aldinga Beach had approximately 82 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling about 411 homes. As of FY-26, 46 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.2 new residents per year per dwelling were constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes was $445,000, suggesting developers targeted the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $73.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Aldinga Beach had 54.0% more building activity per person as of FY-26. New building activity comprised 87.0% detached houses and 13.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With approximately 140 people per dwelling approval, Aldinga Beach exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Aldinga Beach is expected to grow by about 581 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Aldinga Beach has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include Aldinga Master Planned Community by Villawood Properties, Main South Road Duplication Project (Stage 2) from Aldinga to Sellicks Beach, redevelopment of Aldinga Sports Park Master Plan, and expansion of Aldinga Central Shopping Centre. Below are details on those most relevant.

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The employment landscape in Aldinga Beach shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Aldinga Beach's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 4.4% over the past year.

There are 5,559 employed residents, with a 1.0% higher unemployment rate compared to Greater Adelaide's 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 59.3%. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment is particularly high at 1.4 times the regional level, while professional & technical jobs are lower at 4.1% compared to Greater Adelaide's 7.3%.

The area shows limited local employment opportunities based on Census data analysis. From September 2024 to September 2025, employment increased by 4.4%, and labour force grew by 3.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Adelaide saw a 3.0% employment rise, 2.9% labour force growth, and a 0.1 percentage point unemployment reduction. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows SA's employment grew by 1.19%, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%, with SA outpacing national average employment growth of 0.14%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aldinga Beach's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Aldinga Beach had a lower income level than the national average in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The median income among taxpayers was $45,624 and the average income stood at $53,005, compared to Greater Adelaide's figures of $54,808 and $66,852 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.8% Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $49,639 (median) and $57,669 (average). The 2021 Census figures showed household, family, and personal incomes in Aldinga Beach all fell between the 20th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that the largest segment comprised 31.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,695 residents), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 31.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 81.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 18th percentile.

Aldinga Beach is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Aldinga Beach, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.3% houses and 8.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Adelaide metro's 89.2% houses and 10.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aldinga Beach stood at 27.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.1% and rented dwellings at 28.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,408, below Adelaide metro's average of $1,452. The median weekly rent in Aldinga Beach was $320, compared to Adelaide metro's $314. Nationally, Aldinga Beach's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Aldinga Beach has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 71.8% of all households, including 28.2% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 16.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 28.2%, with lone person households at 25.4% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the Greater Adelaide average.

Educational outcomes in Aldinga Beach fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (33.3%). Educational participation is high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.6% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.6% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Aldinga Beach has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 561 weekly passenger trips. The transport system in Aldinga Beach is rated as good, with residents on average being located 206 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 80 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Aldinga Beach is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Aldinga Beach, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 48% (~5,595 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 10.3 and 9.5% of residents respectively. Around 63.5% claim to be free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Adelaide's 62.9%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.7% (2,296 people) compared to Greater Adelaide's 21.0%. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging but largely align with the general population's health profile.

Aldinga Beach ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aldinga Beach, according to a study, had a cultural diversity index below average. As per the data from 2016, 79.3% of its residents were born in Australia, with 90.3% being Australian citizens and 95.7% speaking English at home exclusively. Christianity was the predominant religion in Aldinga Beach, comprising 31.6% of the population, as per the 2011 Census.

Notably, Judaism, which constituted 0.1% of Aldinga Beach's population, was overrepresented compared to Greater Adelaide where it made up only 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Aldinga Beach were English (37.9%), Australian (27.5%), and Scottish (7.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable variations: Dutch at 1.8% in Aldinga Beach compared to 1.7% regionally, German at 5.0% versus 5.4%, and Welsh at 0.6% compared to 0.8%.

Aldinga Beach's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Aldinga Beach's median age is 39 years, matching Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and closely aligned with Australia's median of 38. The 5-14 cohort is over-represented at 13.9%, compared to the Greater Adelaide average, while the 25-34 group is under-represented at 11.0%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 5.9% to 7.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 15.1% to 13.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Aldinga Beach's age profile. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 144%, adding 385 residents to reach 654. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 86% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 55-64 cohorts.