Neutral Bay - Kirribilli

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's population is around 18,351 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,168 people (6.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,183 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 18,158 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 200 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 8,303 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought-after resource. Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's 6.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.6%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 87.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 389 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 1.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli has averaged around 27 new dwelling approvals per year, with 135 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 29 so far in FY-26. With population declining over recent years, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new homes are being built at an average value of $1,166,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $70.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Neutral Bay - Kirribilli shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 27th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 8.0% detached houses and 92.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 1308 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Looking ahead, Neutral Bay - Kirribilli is expected to grow by 196 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 49 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Neutral Bay Town Centre Plaza, Woolworths Neutral Bay Mixed-Use Development, XO Projects Mixed Use Development, and Wirra Neutral Bay, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli possesses a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector a particular standout in terms of representation, an unemployment rate of 4.6%, and 1.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,449 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.4% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 66.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise professional & technical, finance & insurance, and health care & social assistance. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in professional & technical, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. In contrast, construction employs just 4.9% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 8.6%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.1% alongside labour force increasing by 1.1%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Neutral Bay - Kirribilli. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.6% over five years and 15.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Neutral Bay - Kirribilli SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $83,039 with the average level standing at $133,576. This is among the top percentile nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $90,396 (median) and $145,411 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli, between the 86th and 98th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 30.1% earning $4000+ weekly (5,523 residents), diverging from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 41.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 18.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 82nd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Neutral Bay - Kirribilli, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 8.7% houses and 91.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Neutral Bay - Kirribilli was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 25.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (18.5%) or rented (56.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $2,990, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $541, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 50.8% of all households, comprising 15.3% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 5.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 49.2%, with lone person households at 43.7% and group households comprising 5.6% of the total. The median household size of 1.9 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 62.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 39.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.2%). Vocational pathways account for 19.5% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (8.3%).

A substantial 23.9% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.1% in tertiary education, 5.8% in primary education, and 4.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 84 active transport stops operating within Neutral Bay - Kirribilli, comprising a mix of ferry and buses. These stops are serviced by 84 individual routes, collectively providing 14,315 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 124 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 56%, with 12% walking and 12% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.5 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 66.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 2,045 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 170 weekly trips per individual stop.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Neutral Bay - Kirribilli, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 82% of the total population (14,956 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 7.0% and 6.5% of residents, respectively, while 73.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,048 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 21.0% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 39.6% born overseas. The main religion in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli is Christianity, which makes up 44.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 1.1% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Neutral Bay - Kirribilli are English, comprising 26.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 17.1% of the population, and Other, comprising 11.8% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: French is notably overrepresented at 1.2% of Neutral Bay - Kirribilli (vs 0.5% regionally), Russian at 0.7% (vs 0.4%) and Spanish at 0.8% (vs 0.6%).

Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 40, Neutral Bay - Kirribilli is somewhat higher than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and similarly marginally higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (21.1% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (5.9%). This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national 14.4%. In the period since 2021, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.1% to 10.0% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 6.8% to 8.0%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 15.3% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.9% to 10.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Neutral Bay - Kirribilli's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 588 people (87%) from 678 to 1,267. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 86% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.