Chart Color Schemes
This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
Find a Recent Sale
Sales Detail
Tin Can Bay has an estimated 2,402 residents, up from 2,293 at the 2021 Census — a change of 109 people, or 4.8%. Growth has averaged 1.2% a year over five years. Density is about 10 people per square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Tin Can Bay has an estimated residency count of approximately 2,402 people as of May 2026, calculated from ABS population updates for the wider region alongside fresh address data verified by AreaSearch post-Census. Compared to the 2,293 individuals documented in the 2021 Census, this represents a growth of 109 people (4.8%). This current estimation is derived by AreaSearch from the June 2025 ABS ERP figures and 36 validated new addresses registered since the Census. With this population level, the local density stands at 10.2 persons per square kilometer, indicating a spacious living environment.
Most of the recent population gains were driven by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 92.0% of the overall growth. Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024 (using 2022 as the base year) are utilized by AreaSearch for SA2 areas, supplemented by 2023 Queensland Government projections (based on 2021 data) for missing sectors or periods beyond 2032. Because the state-level data lacks age-specific breakdowns, cohort growth weightings are adjusted using the 2023 ABS Greater Capital Region projections (based on 2022 data). Looking forward, the suburb of Tin Can Bay is projected to experience population growth slightly under the median for non-metropolitan regions nationally, with aggregated SA2 models indicating an increase of 184 persons by 2041, representing a total rise of 7.7% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
132 new dwellings have been approved in Tin Can Bay over the past five years, an average of 26 a year. That is 11.6 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 12, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
According to AreaSearch analysis of ABS construction statistics mapped to local boundaries, the suburb of Tin Can Bay averages approximately 26 residential building approvals yearly, translating to 132 homes over the preceding 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 11 approvals have been logged. Average occupancy trends showed 1.1 new residents per built dwelling annually between FY-21 and FY-25, pointing to balanced market conditions, though this has risen to 3.8 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, highlighting heightened demand and a possible shortage of stock. The construction value of these new properties averages $393,000.
Additionally, commercial building approvals have reached $9.0 million this financial year, emphasizing the dominant residential nature of the area. In comparison to the Rest of Qld, local building approvals in the suburb of Tin Can Bay are somewhat high, tracking 29.0% above the regional per capita benchmark over the 5 year period, which supports supply while sustaining property values, even though building pace has slowed lately. This rate is notably above the national average, pointing to strong developer interest. Of the new approvals, 92.0% are standalone houses and 8.0% are townhouses or apartments, preserving the low-density neighborhood style focused on spacious family living. The ratio of 436 people per dwelling approval reflects a calm, low-intensity construction environment. Projecting ahead, the suburb of Tin Can Bay is anticipated to add 184 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. Current building volumes should comfortably meet this housing demand, offering good opportunities for purchasers and potentially supporting growth that outpaces current predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Tin Can Bay
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 34 current infrastructure and development projects close to Tin Can Bay, worth an estimated $11.3 billion. 12 are already under construction and 9 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, transport & logistics and communities, precincts & urban renewal. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Infrastructure upgrades, key developments, and regional planning heavily influence property performance. Currently, AreaSearch has identified no projects within the immediate area. However, several nearby regional developments could impact the locality, including the Forest Wind Farm, the Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program - Wide Bay Burnett, the Queensland Train Manufacturing Program, and the Borumba Pumped Hydro Transmission Connections, with details on relevant projects provided below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Gympie Regional Council Bridge Replacement Project
Replacement of four bridges across the region with a total investment of $7.3 million. Includes construction of new concrete structures to improve safety, load capacity, and flood resilience for local communities.
Bruce Highway (Cooroy to Curra) Section D - Northern Contract
The northern contract of Section D delivered part of the 26 km four-lane Gympie Bypass from north of Sandy Creek Road to Curra, including major structures and realignments. Section D opened to traffic on 16 Oct 2024 and completes the Cooroy to Curra upgrade with 42 bridges at 23 locations and three new interchanges (Flood Road, Gympie Connection Road, Curra).
Gympie Regional Housing Action Plan Implementation
Implementation of the Gympie Region Local Housing Action Plan to improve availability, diversity and affordability of housing. Includes support for social housing, affordable housing initiatives, and addressing housing supply challenges.
Gympie Region Planning Scheme Review
Council is preparing a new planning scheme to plan for growing needs over the next 20-25 years. The review will address residential growth, industrial development, environmental protection, and infrastructure planning across the region.
Gympie Civic Centre Revitalisation
Council-led revitalisation of Gympie's primary performing arts venue, closed since 2022 following flood damage and severe mould contamination. The $18.5 million project, awarded to Hutchinson Builders in December 2025, covers full mould remediation, structural restoration, electrical and disability compliance upgrades, modernised AV and theatrical systems, improved acoustics, seating and amenities. Construction commenced early 2026. A Precinct Reference Group has been established to guide community input throughout construction and future operations.
Cooroy To Curra - Section D - Southern Contract
Section D involves building a 26-km four-lane bypass around Gympie, finishing the Bruce Highway's 62-km upgrade from Cooroy to Curra. It's split into two, with the Southern Contract covering Woondum to north of Sandy Creek Road.
7-Eleven Southside Gympie
Completed retail-led service station featuring a 218sqm 7-Eleven convenience store, 3 fuel pumps with Mobil fuels, and intersection upgrades on Exhibition Road. Built on a brownfield redevelopment site, the project included signalization of the Exhibition Road intersection providing direct access from the development to the state-controlled road. Opened June 8, 2023.
10 Copp Road Residential Care Facility
Approved development for a 100-bed residential care facility (nursing home) on 1.21 hectares of elevated, flood-free land in Southside, Queensland. The site was sold in April 2025 with Development Approval (MCU) in place.
683 residents of Tin Can Bay are employed, from a labour force of 716. Unemployment sits at 4.5%, with participation at 31.2%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.7% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The suburb of Tin Can Bay features a diverse workforce split between manual and professional roles, with retail and service sectors highly visible, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and an annual employment growth rate estimated at 7.1% based on localized AreaSearch figures. Working residents numbered 683 as of March 2026, with unemployment tracking 0.6% above the 3.9% average for Regional Qld, and workforce participation significantly lower at 31.2% versus 64.3% in Regional Qld. Census records indicate that a moderate 14.6% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure was likely influenced by pandemic restrictions.
Most employed residents work in retail trade, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food. Agriculture, forestry & fishing represents a key specialization, employing residents at 1.9 times the regional rate. Conversely, health care & social assistance is underrepresented, employing 12.2% of the local workforce compared to 16.1% in Regional Qld. Comparing Census figures for the local working population against resident totals indicates a shortage of job opportunities within the immediate area. Aggregate data from the ABS and SALM for the 12 months ending March 2026 shows local employment rose by 7.1% while the labor force expanded by 3.9%, yielding a drop in unemployment of 2.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Qld, which saw employment rise by 0.1%, labor force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.1 percentage point. Future employment trends can be evaluated using national forecast data from Jobs and Skills Australia published in May-25. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to local industries to model future job expansion. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary by sector. Weighting these projections against local employment structures suggests jobs could grow by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, assuming stable localized conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Tin Can Bay is $734 a week (about $38,000 a year), with median personal income at $456 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $34,434 a year against an average of $46,433. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Based on financial year 2023 ATO postcode statistics compiled by AreaSearch, taxpayers in the suburb of Tin Can Bay recorded a median income of $34,434 and an average income of $46,433. These figures are below the national benchmarks and contrast with Regional Qld's median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would stand at approximately $38,346 for the median and $51,708 for the average. Census data from 2021 ranks local household, family, and individual incomes between the 0th and 1st percentiles nationwide.
The primary income group contains 48.2% of local taxpayers (1,157 people) earning between $400 - 799 weekly, whereas Regional Qld is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 31.7%. The fact that 58.0% of earners make under $800 weekly highlights local financial pressures. Residents retain 85.0% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 2nd percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Tin Can Bay had 1,127 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 79% detached houses and 7% apartments. 12% are owned with a mortgage, 29% rented and 60% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $260 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,300 a month. Rent absorbs 35.4% of household income here and mortgage repayments 40.9%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, housing types in the suburb of Tin Can Bay consisted of 78.7% detached houses and 21.3% other formats like townhouses or apartments, compared to 76.4% houses and 23.6% other properties in Regional Qld. Home ownership rates were high at 59.5% outright owners, with mortgaged properties at 11.5% and rental homes at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,300 was lower than the regional median of $1,655, and the median weekly rent was $260 compared to Regional Qld's $345. Locally, mortgage obligations are lower than the national average of $1,863, and rent is below the Australian figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Tin Can Bay counted 1,127 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 1.8 people each. 8% are couples with children, fewer than in 98% of areas nationally, against 44% couples without children. 40% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.1 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up 57.6% of local households, containing 7.8% couples raising children, 44.0% couples without children, and 5.9% single parents. Single-person dwellings constitute 39.7% of the area, and group houses make up 2.2%, bringing total non-family households to 42.4%. The median household occupancy is 1.8 persons, smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
10.4% of adults in Tin Can Bay hold a university qualification, including 7.8% with a bachelor degree and 0.9% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 96% of areas nationally. A further 30.7% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 284 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 916 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The region presents low levels of tertiary education, with university graduation rates at 10.4%, compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are held by 7.8% of the community, graduate diplomas by 1.7%, and postgraduate degrees by 0.9%. Vocational and practical skills are more common, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, comprising advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 30.7%. A total of 16.9% of the local population is enrolled in formal education. This proportion comprises 7.5% in primary schools, 5.2% in high schools, and 1.8% in higher education institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Tin Can Bay means driving: households keep an average of 1.0 vehicles, and scheduled services reach only a handful of stops. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport services in the suburb of Tin Can Bay include 8 active transit stops offering bus services. These stops connect to 1 distinct route, providing a total of 15 passenger trips per week. Accessibility is moderate, with residents living an average of 597 meters from the nearest stop. Private vehicles are the main transport mode for commutes at 87%, while 9% of residents walk and 2% cycle. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per household, below the regional average, and 14.6% of residents worked from home during the 2021 Census. Local transit routes average 2 services daily, which translates to approximately 1 weekly service at each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
48.7% of residents in Tin Can Bay report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 81% of areas nationally. 12.3% need daily assistance with core activities, and 45.6% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.6 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health metrics point to notable challenges in the suburb of Tin Can Bay, with AreaSearch identifying elevated mortality rates and chronic health conditions across multiple age brackets, alongside a low rate of private health insurance at 46% of the population (~1,095 people). In comparison, private coverage stands at 52.5% in Regional Qld and 55.7% nationally. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues locally, affecting 17.3% and 8.2% of the population respectively, while 48.7% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld.
Chronic disease rates are elevated among the working-age cohort. Seniors aged 65 and older represent 52.8% of local residents (1,268 people), compared to 20.4% in Regional Qld, with health metrics for this older group tracking similarly to national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Tin Can Bay is largely Australian-born, at 85.0% of residents, with 1.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (36.8%) and Australian (28.8%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity in the suburb of Tin Can Bay is relatively low, with 85.0% of residents born in Australia, 89.4% holding citizenship, and 98.6% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 54.0% of the community, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. Regarding family background, English ancestry is most common at 36.8% of the population, which is higher than the regional rate of 29.6%. This is followed by Australian ancestry at 28.8% and Scottish ancestry at 9.7%. Other ancestries show higher concentrations than the surrounding region, including German at 5.2% (vs 4.7% regionally), Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.2%), and Irish at 9.4% (vs 8.2%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Tin Can Bay is 65, older than 99% of areas nationally. 9.3% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 65 years in the suburb of Tin Can Bay is higher than the regional median of 41 and the national median of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is overrepresented at 29.1% of the local population (compared to 9.4% nationally), while the 25 - 34 bracket is underrepresented at 3.9%. Since the 2021 Census, residents aged 75 to 84 grew from 16.4% to 18.2%, and those aged 85+ rose from 4.4% to 5.5%, whereas the 65 to 74 group fell from 30.6% to 29.1%. Projections to 2041 indicate that the 85+ cohort will rise by 95% (125 people), growing from 132 to 258.
Seniors aged 65 and older will account for 90% of the total growth, while the 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 cohorts are expected to decrease.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Tin Can Bay
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | May 2026 3 months ago all 13 measures |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 36 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (2,293 at the 2021 Census → 2,402 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL32826). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.