Tin Can Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tin Can Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Tin Can Bay is around 2,628. This reflects a growth of 335 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,293. The current population was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,506 residents in Jun 2024, along with 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 11.2 persons per square kilometer. Tin Can Bay's growth of 14.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the Rest of Qld (9.1%) and the national average, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Tin Can Bay is expected to increase by 189 persons to reach a population of approximately 2,817 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 1.4% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Tin Can Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tin Can Bay experienced approximately 32 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 162 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.6 new residents arrive per new home each year between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction value for new dwellings is $393,000.

In FY-26, $9.0 million in commercial approvals were registered. Tin Can Bay has 56.0% more construction activity per person compared to the Rest of Qld, demonstrating robust developer interest and offering buyers greater choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. Developers are building more traditional houses than suggested by current population mix, indicating strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

Tin Can Bay has around 126 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 38 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting further growth beyond current projections.

Tin Can Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area significantly. Notable projects include Forest Wind Farm, Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program - Wide Bay Burnett, Borumba Pumped Hydro Transmission Connections, and Queensland Energy Roadmap 2025, with the following list providing more detail on those most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Tin Can Bay has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Tin Can Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, notable representation in lifestyle and retail sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.2% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 9.8% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025740 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.2% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 33.4%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. A moderate 14.6% of residents worked from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Dominant employment sectors included retail trade, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food services. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had notable concentration with levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance was under-represented at 12.2% compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 9.8% and labour force by 10.0%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point unemployment rise. Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a 0.3 percentage point unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Tin Can Bay. These projections estimate national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tin Can Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tin Can Bay has a median taxpayer income of $34,434 and an average income of $46,433, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Qld's median income being $53,146 and average income $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tin Can Bay are approximately $37,846 (median) and $51,035 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Tin Can Bay fall between the 0th and 1st percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that 48.2% of locals (1,266 people) have incomes in the $400 - $799 category, unlike the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 31.7%. The concentration of 58.0% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges faced by a significant portion of the community. After housing costs, 85.0% of income remains, which ranks at only the 2nd percentile nationally.

Tin Can Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tin Can Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.7% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Tin Can Bay was 59.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 11.5% and rented dwellings at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Tin Can Bay was $260, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Tin Can Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tin Can Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 57.6% of all households, including 7.8% couples with children, 44.0% couples without children, and 5.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.4%, with lone person households at 39.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Tin Can Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rates are significantly lower than the Australian average, with only 10.4% of residents holding such qualifications compared to the national average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common type of university qualification in the area, held by 7.8% of residents. Graduate diplomas and postgraduate qualifications are less prevalent, at 1.7% and 0.9% respectively. Vocational credentials are more commonly held than university qualifications, with 41.4% of residents aged 15 and above possessing them.

Advanced diplomas account for 10.7%, while certificates make up the majority at 30.7%. School attendance is recorded at 16.9% of the community, including 7.5% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows eight active transport stops operating within Tin Can Bay. These stops are served by one individual route, collectively offering 15 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 597 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using a car, which remains the dominant mode at 87%. Nine percent walk and two percent cycle. Vehicle ownership averages one per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.6% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages two trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Tin Can Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Tin Can Bay. AreaSearch's assessment shows high mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,198 people), compared to 52.5% in the rest of Queensland and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 17.3% of residents) and mental health issues (8.2%). Notably, 48.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in the rest of Queensland. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Tin Can Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (49.7%, or 1,306 people), compared to the rest of Queensland at 20.4%. While health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings, they present some challenges.

Tin Can Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tin Can Bay had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 85.0% of its population born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 98.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tin Can Bay, comprising 54.0% of the population, compared to 52.2% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were English (36.8%), Australian (28.8%), and Scottish (9.7%).

Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented at 5.2%, Hungarian at 0.3%, and Irish at 9.4%.

Tin Can Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tin Can Bay's median age is 64 years, which is higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tin Can Bay has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (27.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (3.9%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 9.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 55-64 has increased from 20.3% to 21.3%, while the 65-74 age group has decreased from 30.6% to 27.9%. By 2041, Tin Can Bay's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is expected to grow by 112 people (an increase of 89%) from 126 to 239. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 97% of total population growth, reflecting Tin Can Bay's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both the 35-44 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.