Tin Can Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tin Can Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Tin Can Bay statistical area (Lv2) is estimated to be around 2,628 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 335 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,293. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,506 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 11.2 persons per square kilometer. The Tin Can Bay (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 14.6% between the 2021 Census and November 2025, exceeding both the non-metro area's growth rate of 8.8% and the national average. Interstate migration contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during this period.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas by 2041, with an expected expansion of 195 persons over the next 17 years, reflecting an increase of 1.4% in total.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Tin Can Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Tin Can Bay shows approximately 32 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 162 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 1.6 new residents per year arriving with each new home between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction value for new dwellings is $393,000.

In the current financial year, $9.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a primarily residential area. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tin Can Bay has 56.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. However, building activity has slowed recently. This level is significantly above the national average, suggesting robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Tin Can Bay's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes.

Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (79.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With around 126 people per dwelling approval, Tin Can Bay exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Tin Can Bay will gain 38 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Tin Can Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Key projects include Forest Wind Farm, Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program - Wide Bay Burnett, Borumba Pumped Hydro Transmission Connections, and Queensland Energy Roadmap 2025. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Tin Can Bay has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Tin Can Bay's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with lifestyle and retail sectors prominent. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in September 2025, 1.1% higher than Rest of Qld's 4.1%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 9.8%. There are 737 residents employed currently. The dominant employment sectors include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notably high concentration with levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented at 12.2% compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparison. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 9.8%, labour force by 10.1%, leading to a slight unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld had employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Tin Can Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Tin Can Bay, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 30, 2023, is $34,434. The average income for this period is $46,433. These figures are lower than the national averages of $53,146 (median) and $66,593 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income for Tin Can Bay is approximately $37,846, with an average of around $51,035. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Tin Can Bay fall within the lowest percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The majority of locals (48.2%, or 1,266 people) earn between $400 and $799 weekly, contrasting with the surrounding region where earnings predominantly fall into the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket at 31.7%. This concentration of income in lower brackets indicates economic challenges for a significant portion of Tin Can Bay's population. After accounting for housing expenses, 85.0% of income remains, placing this figure at the second percentile nationally.

Tin Can Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tin Can Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 78.7% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Qld's 91.8% houses and 8.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tin Can Bay stood at 59.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 11.5% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,326. Median weekly rent in Tin Can Bay was $260, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $290. Nationally, Tin Can Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tin Can Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.6% of all households, including 7.8% composed of couples with children, 44.0% consisting of couples without children, and 5.9% being single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 42.4%, with lone person households comprising 39.7% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Tin Can Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 10.7% and certificates for 30.7%.

In terms of school and university attendance, 16.9% of the community is involved, including 7.5% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows four active public transport stops in Tin Can Bay, operated by a mix of bus services. These stops are served by one route collectively offering 15 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is moderate, with residents typically located 597 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages two trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tin Can Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tin Can Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 1,198 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 17.3% of residents) and mental health issues (8.2%). Conversely, 48.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, lower than the 60.3% reported in the rest of Queensland. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 49.8% or approximately 1,308 people, compared to the 25.4% in the rest of Queensland. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are better than those of the general population.

Tin Can Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tin Can Bay, as per the census data from June 2016, showed a lower than average cultural diversity with 85.0% of its residents born in Australia. This was further reflected in the high percentage of Australian citizenship at 89.4%. The primary language spoken at home was English at 98.6%.

Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 54.0% of Tin Can Bay's population, slightly higher than the regional average of 50.4%. The top three ancestry groups were English at 36.8%, Australian at 28.8%, and Scottish at 9.7%. Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented in Tin Can Bay at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 5.8%. Hungarian ancestry was also relatively higher at 0.3% versus 0.2% regionally, and Irish ancestry stood at 9.4%, slightly above the regional average of 8.4%.

Tin Can Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tin Can Bay's median age is 64 years, which is considerably higher than the Rest of Queensland average of 41 and above the national average of 38. Compared to Rest of Queensland, Tin Can Bay has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (27.9%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (3.8%). This concentration is significantly higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 16.4% to 17.2% of the population. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has decreased from 30.6% to 27.9%. By 2041, Tin Can Bay's age composition is expected to shift notably. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 120 people (98%) from 123 to 244. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 92% of total population growth, reflecting Tin Can Bay's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.