Tin Can Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tin Can Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Tin Can Bay as of May 2026 is around 2,402 people. This reflects an increase of 109 people (4.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,293 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,402 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 36 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 10.2 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the suburb expected to expand by 184 persons to reach 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 7.7% in total over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Tin Can Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Tin Can Bay has experienced approximately 32 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 160 homes. As of FY-26, 15 approvals have been recorded. Based on an average of 1.5 new residents per year arriving per new home between FY-21 and FY-25, the supply and demand appear balanced, creating stable market conditions. The average construction value for new dwellings is $393,000.

In this financial year, $9.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tin Can Bay has 55.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice, although building activity has slowed in recent years. This level is significantly above the national average, suggesting robust developer interest in the area. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Tin Can Bay's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (79.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures.

With around 130 people per dwelling approval, Tin Can Bay shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Tin Can Bay will gain 184 residents through to 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Tin Can Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this region. Key initiatives are Forest Wind Farm, Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program - Wide Bay Burnett (Queensland), Queensland Train Manufacturing Program, and Borumba Pumped Hydro Transmission Connections. Relevant details follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Tin Can Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tin Can Bay has a mixed workforce across white and blue collar jobs. Lifestyle and retail sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 5.6% and estimated employment growth of 7.5% in the past year (AreaSearch data). As of December 2025688 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation lags at 31.8%, compared to Regional Qld's 64.5%. According to Census responses, 14.6% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment sectors include retail trade, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food services. The area has a notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance is under-represented, with only 12.2% of Tin Can Bay's workforce compared to 16.1% in Regional Qld. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 7.5%, while labour force also grew by 7.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.1 percentage points (AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data). In contrast, Regional Qld saw employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 1.0%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Tin Can Bay. Applying these projections to the local employment mix indicates that local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Tin Can Bay is $34,434 and the average is $46,433 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode-level ATO data for the financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages; Regional Qld has a median income of $53,146 and an average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth from March 2023 to March 2026 (an increase of 11.36%), estimated incomes for Tin Can Bay are approximately $38,346 (median) and $51,708 (average). The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Tin Can Bay fall within the 0th to 1st percentile nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 48.2% of locals (1,157 people) earn between $400 and $799 weekly, differing from surrounding regions where earnings predominantly fall in the $1,500 to $2,999 range at 31.7%. The concentration of 58.0% in sub-$800 brackets indicates economic challenges for a significant portion of Tin Can Bay's community. After housing expenses, 85.0% of income remains, ranking at the 2nd percentile nationally.

Tin Can Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tin Can Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 78.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 21.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Regional Queensland's figures of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tin Can Bay stood at 59.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 11.5% and rented dwellings accounting for 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Regional Queensland's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Tin Can Bay was recorded at $260, compared to Regional Queensland's $345 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Tin Can Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Tin Can Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.6% of all households, including 7.8% couples with children, 44.0% couples without children, and 5.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 42.4%, with lone person households at 39.7% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Tin Can Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (30.7%).

School and university attendance comprises 16.9% of the community, including 7.5% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tin Can Bay has eight active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route that offers 15 weekly passenger trips in total. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as moderate, with residents located an average of 597 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Tin Can Bay, primarily using cars (87%). Walking and cycling account for 9% and 2% of commuting modes respectively. On average, there is one vehicle per dwelling in Tin Can Bay, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages two trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Tin Can Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tin Can Bay faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,095 people), compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 17.3% of residents) and mental health issues (8.2%). Conversely, 48.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in Regional Qld. Working-age population health presents notable challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 52.8% (1,268 people), compared to 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Tin Can Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tin Can Bay's cultural diversity is below average, with 85.0% born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 98.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, making up 54.0%. This compares to 52.2% across Regional Qld.

Top ancestry groups are English (36.8%), Australian (28.8%), and Scottish (9.7%). Notably, German representation is higher at 5.2%, Hungarian at 0.3%, and Irish at 9.4%.

Tin Can Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tin Can Bay's median age is 65 years, notably exceeding the Regional Queensland average of 41 and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Regional Queensland average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 29.1% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 3.9%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. As per the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 16.4% to 18.2%, while the 85+ cohort increased from 4.4% to 5.5%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 30.6% to 29.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tin Can Bay's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 95%, reaching 258 people from 132. This growth is part of a broader trend where residents aged 65 and older represent 90% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 age cohorts.