Tin Can Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tin Can Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Tin Can Bay is around 2,744, reflecting a growth of 451 people since the 2021 Census. The ABS ERP estimate for surrounding areas applied to Tin Can Bay by AreaSearch in June 2024 indicated a resident population of 2,661, with an additional 35 validated new addresses contributing to the increase. This results in a population density ratio of 11.7 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's growth rate of 19.7% since the 2021 Census exceeds both the non-metro area average (8.8%) and the national average, marking Tin Can Bay as a significant growth leader in the region. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 and based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Tin Can Bay is expected to expand by 196 persons to reach the year 2041, reflecting an overall decline of 2.8% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Tin Can Bay when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Tin Can Bay experienced approximately 32 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 162 homes. As of FY-26, seven approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.6 new residents arrive per year per new home between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions.

The average development value is $393,000, below the regional average, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $18.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Tin Can Bay records 56.0% more construction activity per person. This level is substantially higher than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (79.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With around 120 people per dwelling approval, Tin Can Bay shows characteristics of a growth area. Population is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Tin Can Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 0 projects that could impact this area. Notable projects include Forest Wind Farm, Bruce Highway Targeted Safety Program - Wide Bay Burnett, Borumba Pumped Hydro Transmission Connections, and Queensland Supergrid South. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment performance in Tin Can Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tin Can Bay has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include lifestyle and retail, with an unemployment rate of 6.3% as of June 2025.

The area saw estimated employment growth of 5.5% in the past year. Compared to Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%, Tin Can Bay has a higher unemployment rate at 2.4%. Workforce participation is lower, at 25.7% compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Dominant employment sectors are retail trade, health care & social assistance, and accommodation & food.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance is under-represented, at 12.2% of Tin Can Bay's workforce compared to Rest of Qld's 16.1%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 5.5%, labour force by 7.5%, leading to a 1.6 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.8% and labour force growth of 2.0%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 indicate potential future demand within Tin Can Bay. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between sectors. Applying these projections to Tin Can Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tin Can Bay's median taxpayer income was $34,434 and average income was $46,433 in financial year 2022, according to AreaSearch's postcode level ATO data. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of Qld having a median income of $50,780 and an average of $64,844. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $39,251 (median) and $52,929 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in Tin Can Bay fall between the 0th and 1st percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 48.2% of locals (1,322 people) earn $400 - $799 weekly, differing from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 31.7%. The concentration of 58.0% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges for a significant portion of the community. After housing costs, 85.0% of income remains, ranking at only the 2nd percentile nationally.

Tin Can Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tin Can Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.7% houses and 21.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 91.8% houses and 8.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tin Can Bay stood at 59.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 11.5% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,326. The median weekly rent figure in Tin Can Bay was $260, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $290. Nationally, Tin Can Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tin Can Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 57.6% of all households, including 7.8% that are couples with children, 44.0% that are couples without children, and 5.9% that are single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 42.4%, with lone person households at 39.7% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 1.8 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.4.

Tin Can Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.8%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.7%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (30.7%).

School and university attendance encompasses 16.9% of the community, including 7.5% in primary education, 5.2% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education. Tin Can Bay State School serves the local area with an enrollment of 284 students as of a recent report. The school's Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) is 916. All schools offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity. There are 10.3 school places per 100 residents, below the regional average of 13.7. Some students may attend schools in neighboring areas due to this discrepancy.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tin Can Bay has four active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by one route in total, offering 15 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents generally located 597 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are two trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tin Can Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tin Can Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 1,251 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (17.3%) and mental health issues (8.2%). Notably, 48.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of Qld's 60.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 49.7% or approximately 1,363 people, compared to Rest of Qld's 25.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are notably better than the general population in terms of health metrics.

Tin Can Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tin Can Bay, surveyed in 2016, had a population with 85.0% born in Australia, 89.4% being citizens, and 98.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.0%, compared to 50.4% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (36.8%), Australian (28.8%), and Scottish (9.7%).

Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented at 5.2% (vs regional 5.8%), Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.2%), and Irish at 9.4% (vs 8.4%).

Tin Can Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tin Can Bay's median age is 64 years, which is considerably higher than the Rest of Qld average of 41 and above the national average of 38. Compared to Rest of Qld, Tin Can Bay has a higher concentration of 65-74 residents at 27.9%, but fewer 25-34 year-olds at 3.8%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 55 to 64 age group grew from 20.3% to 21.1%, while the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 30.6% to 27.9%. By 2041, Tin Can Bay's 85+ age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 115 people (an 89% rise) from 128 to 244. The combined 65+ age groups will account for 98% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.