Oakey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oakey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the estimated population of Oakey as of Feb 2026 is around 4,907. This reflects an increase of 151 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,756. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 4,824 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and 22 additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 38 persons per square kilometer. Oakey's 3.2% growth positions it within 2.1 percentage points of its SA4 region, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Natural growth contributed approximately 45.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Future population trends indicate a national non-metropolitan median increase is expected by 2041, with the suburb of Oakey projected to expand by 234 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 4.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oakey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Oakey averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, an estimated 27 homes were approved, with a further 2 approved in FY26 so far.

On average, approximately 3 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five financial years, indicating solid demand that supports property values. The average value of new homes being built was $281,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Oakey had significantly less development activity, 59.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has intensified recently. This is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached houses, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 609 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Oakey is expected to grow by 195 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development appears to be keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Oakey has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to affect this region. Key projects include Toowoomba Second Range Crossing (TSRC), Toowoomba Day Surgery Theatre, Clifford Park Special School - Relocation of Denise Kable Centre, and Inland Rail - Gowrie to Kagaru (G2K). The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Oakey has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Oakey has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominently featuring manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 2,251 employed residents, with an unemployment rate at 1.2% above Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%.

Workforce participation in Oakey is lower at 60.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. According to Census responses, only 5.4% of residents work from home. The leading employment industries are manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing has a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 3.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food services have limited presence with 5.5%, compared to the regional average of 8.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population versus resident population comparison. Over the past year, employment increased by 3.0% while labour force grew by 6.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment growth of 1.7%, labour force growth of 2.1%, and an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Oakey. These projections estimate national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Oakey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.6% over ten years, assuming constant population ratios for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 indicates that Oakey's median income among taxpayers is $43,189, with an average of $48,359. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Qld has a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Oakey would be approximately $47,469 (median) and $53,151 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Oakey all fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 30.1% earning $800 - 1,499 weekly (1,477 residents), unlike metropolitan regions where 31.7% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains in Oakey, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Oakey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Oakey's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, were 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oakey was at 34.4%, similar to Non-Metro Qld, with the rest either mortgaged (29.0%) or rented (36.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,238, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Oakey was $265, substantially lower than Non-Metro Qld's $345 and the national figure of $375.

Oakey has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.1% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

Oakey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 7.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 6.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 39.4% holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.7%), secondary education (9.3%), and tertiary education (1.5%).

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Oakey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oakey faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally low at approximately 46% of Oakey's total population (around 2,275 people), compared to 52.5% in the rest of Queensland and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.9% of Oakey residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in the rest of Queensland. Working-age individuals in Oakey face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has a larger proportion of seniors, with 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (around 1,050 people), compared to 20.4% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Oakey is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Oakey's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 89.7% being Australian citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. The most prevalent religion in Oakey was Christianity, practiced by 61.2% of the population, compared to 52.2% across the rest of Queensland. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (31.5%), English (28.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (8.4%).

Notably, some ethnic groups were disproportionately represented in Oakey: German at 7.5% (regional average 4.7%), Filipino at 1.5% (0.9%), and New Zealand at 0.7% (0.9%).

Oakey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oakey's median age is 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but slightly higher than the national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group makes up 14.1% of Oakey's population compared to Rest of Qld, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 10.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group grew from 10.2% to 12.1%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 14.4% to 12.1%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 13.0% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Oakey's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 41%, reaching 457 people from 323. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 61% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 45-54 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.