Oakey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oakey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Oakey is around 4,916, reflecting an increase of 160 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.4% change from the previous population count of 4,756. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of the June 2025 ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses, is 4,864. This results in a population density ratio of 38 persons per square kilometer. Oakey's growth since the census positions it within 1.6 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 5.0%. Natural growth contributed approximately 45.0% of overall population gains, with other drivers such as overseas and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections for years post-2032, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. For areas not covered by ABS data or beyond 2032, proportional growth weightings are applied based on the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data. Future demographic trends indicate a population increase just below the median for locations outside capital cities, with an expected expansion of 208 persons to reach 5,124 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 3.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Oakey, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Oakey has experienced around 5 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 27 homes. So far in FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded.

An average of just 0.8 new residents per year arrives per new home over the past five financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25). New construction matches or outpaces demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average construction value of new homes is $281,000, under regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. Relative to the Rest of Qld, Oakey has significantly less development activity (59.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though recent periods have seen increased development activity.

The area's maturity and possible planning constraints reflect this lower-than-average national development rate. Recent building activity consists entirely of detached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count is 604 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Oakey adding 156 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Development keeps reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Oakey has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. One major project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impactful: Toowoomba Second Range Crossing (TSRC), slated for completion in 2019. Other notable projects include Toowoomba Day Surgery Theatre, Clifford Park Special School - Relocation of Denise Kable Centre, and Inland Rail - Gowrie to Kagaru (G2K).

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Employment performance in Oakey has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Oakey has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 5.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the past year. Residents in work numbered 2,257 while the unemployment rate was 1.6% higher than Regional Qld's 4.0%.

Workforce participation was lower at 59.7% compared to Regional Qld's 64.5%. A low 5.4% of residents worked from home. Key employment industries were manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing had particularly high concentration with levels 3.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, accommodation & food services employed only 5.5% of local workers compared to Regional Qld's 8.3%. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data comparison. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 2.9%, labour force grew by 5.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 2.5 percentage points. This contrasted with Regional Qld where employment rose by 0.7%, labour force grew by 1.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oakey's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.6% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Oakey's median income among taxpayers is $43,189. The average income in the suburb is $48,359. Both figures are below the national average. In Regional Qld, the median income is $53,146 and the average is $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Oakey's median income would be approximately $48,095 as of March 2026, with an average of around $53,853. The 2021 Census indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Oakey fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment in Oakey comprises 30.1% of residents earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 31.7%. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains in Oakey, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Oakey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Oakey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Qld's figures of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oakey was at 34.4%, mirroring Regional Qld's level, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.0% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,238, lower than Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Oakey was recorded at $265, compared to Regional Qld's $345 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Oakey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Oakey has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 70.1% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households making up 27.3% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the Regional Queensland average.

Oakey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 7.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 6.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 39.4% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (31.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.7% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Oakey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oakey faces critical health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions significantly impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of Oakey's total population (around 2,279 people), compared to 52.5% in Regional Qld and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 10.2% and 10.2% of residents respectively. However, 59.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in Regional Qld. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Oakey has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.4%, with 1,052 people, than Regional Qld's 20.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely in line with national rankings for the general population.

Oakey is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Oakey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.7% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (90.1%), and speaking English only at home (93.7%). Christianity was the predominant religion in Oakey, comprising 61.2% of people, compared to 52.2% across Regional Queensland as of 2016. In terms of ancestry, Australians were the largest group in Oakey at 31.5%, higher than the regional average of 26.5%.

English ancestry followed at 28.3%, with Australian Aboriginal at 8.4%. Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented in Oakey at 7.5% compared to 4.7% regionally, Filipino at 1.5% versus 0.9%, and New Zealand at 0.7% versus 0.9%.

Oakey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oakey's median age in 2021 was 40 years, close to Regional Queensland's figure of 41 but slightly higher than the national norm of 38. The percentage of Oakey's population aged 15-24 was 14.1%, higher than Regional Queensland's figure. Conversely, the percentage of Oakey's population aged 35-44 was 10.7%, lower compared to Regional Queensland. Post-2021 Census, the age group 65 to 74 increased from 10.2% to 12.0%, and the 25 to 34 cohort rose from 10.9% to 12.1%. However, the 5 to 14 age group decreased from 14.4% to 12.2%, and the 45 to 54 group fell from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Oakey's age profile. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 39%, reaching 465 people from 334. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 63% of the projected population growth. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 45 to 54 cohorts are predicted to experience population declines.