Oakey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oakey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Oakey's population is estimated at around 4,902 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 146 people (3.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,756 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,824 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 21 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 38 persons per square kilometer. Oakey's 3.1% growth since census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the SA4 region (5.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 45.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of locations outside of capital cities is expected, with the Oakey statistical area (Lv2) expected to expand by 231 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 4.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oakey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Oakey has received around 5 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 27 homes. In FY-26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 3 people have moved to the area annually for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, reflecting strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $281,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Oakey has significantly less development activity, with 59.0% fewer approvals per person. This scarcity typically boosts demand and prices for existing properties, although recent periods have seen increased development activity. The area's low-density nature is preserved by recent building activity consisting entirely of detached dwellings, attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are an estimated 609 people in the area per dwelling approval.

Future projections suggest Oakey will add 198 residents by 2041, with development keeping pace with projected growth. However, increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Oakey has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a single project expected to impact this specific area. Notable projects include Toowoomba Second Range Crossing (TSRC), Toowoomba Day Surgery Theatre, Clifford Park Special School - Relocation of Denise Kable Centre, and Inland Rail - Gowrie to Kagaru (G2K). The following list details those likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Oakey has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Oakey has a diverse workforce with significant representation in manufacturing and industrial sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2%.

As of September 2025, 1.2% more residents are unemployed compared to Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%, with workforce participation at 55.3%. Key industries include manufacturing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment is notably high, at 3.8 times the regional average. However, accommodation & food services employ only 5.5% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 8.3%.

Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force grew by 6.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment rise by 1.7% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oakey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 5.0% over five years and 11.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Oakey's median income among taxpayers is $43,189. The average income in the suburb is $48,359. Both figures are below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Qld has a median income of $53,146 and an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Oakey as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,469 (median) and $53,151 (average). The 2021 Census reveals that household, family, and personal incomes in Oakey all fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis indicates that the largest segment in Oakey comprises 30.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (1,475 residents), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 31.7%. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains in Oakey, ranking at only the 16th percentile nationally.

Oakey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Oakey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 92.6% houses and 7.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 94.2% houses and 5.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oakey stands at 34.4%, with the remainder being mortgaged (29.0%) or rented (36.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,238, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Oakey is $265, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $250. Nationally, Oakey's mortgage repayments are lower at $1,238 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Oakey has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.1% of all households, including 25.4% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 16.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.9%, with lone person households at 27.3% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Queensland.

Oakey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 7.9%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 6.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.4% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 31.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.7% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Oakey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oakey faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,273 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 10.2% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Qld's figure of 63.4%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.8% (1,019 people). Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to those faced by the general population.

Oakey is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Oakey's population was found to be predominantly culturally homogeneous, with 89.7% being Australian citizens, 90.1% born in Australia, and 93.7% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Oakey was Christianity, accounting for 61.2% of the population, compared to 66.9% across the Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.5%), English (28.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (8.4%).

Notably, German ancestry was overrepresented in Oakey at 7.5%, compared to 8.6% regionally, while Filipino ancestry was slightly higher at 1.5% versus 1.4%. New Zealand ancestry was also marginally higher at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.5%.

Oakey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oakey's median age is 40, close to Rest of Qld's figure of 41 but exceeding the national norm of 38. The 15-24 age group shows strong representation at 14.0%, compared to Rest of Qld, while the 35-44 cohort is less prevalent at 10.3%. Following the Census conducted on 27 August 2021, the 65-74 age group grew from 10.2% to 11.5%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 10.9% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort declined from 14.4% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests Oakey's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. Leading this shift, the 75-84 group is projected to grow by 39%, reaching 456 people from 328. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 60% of projected growth. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 45-54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.