Goonellabah

An assessment of population growth drivers in Goonellabah reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Goonellabah's estimated population is around 13,777. This reflects an increase of 426 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,351. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 13,693 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 191 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 596 persons per square kilometer. Goonellabah's growth rate of 3.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area at 0.5%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 44.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with an expected increase of 906 persons in Goonellabah (SA2) by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 6.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Goonellabah recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Goonellabah has seen approximately 54 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 271 homes were approved, with an additional 31 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home over the past five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market supporting stable conditions.

The average construction value of these new homes is $412,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This year, $3.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, showing limited commercial development focus compared to residential growth. In comparison to the Rest of NSW, Goonellabah has recorded elevated construction activity, with 42.0% more approvals per person over the past five years.

However, recent periods show a moderation in development activity. The area maintains its traditional low-density character, with 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% medium to high-density housing approved recently. This results in an estimated 409 people per dwelling approval, reflecting Goonellabah's quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 909 residents for the area by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Goonellabah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely influencing the region. Notable initiatives include Platypus Park Residential Development, Invercauld Road Subdivision at 226 Invercauld Road, Goonellabah Urban Release Area at 1055 Bruxner Highway, and Points North Estate. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

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The employment landscape in Goonellabah presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.7%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Goonellabah has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in Goonellabah is 3.7%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 6,288 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Goonellabah is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Notably, health care & social assistance has employment levels 1.4 times the regional average.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 2.7% of Goonellabah's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.3% while employment declined by 1.2%, resulting in a fall in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Goonellabah's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 shows Goonellabah suburb had a median taxpayer income of $46,242 and an average of $59,190. This is lower than national averages. Rest of NSW had a median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $50,339 (median) and $64,434 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Goonellabah rank modestly between the 21st and 29th percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 31.4% of residents (4,325 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, aligning with surrounding regions at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Goonellabah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Goonellabah, as per the latest Census, 77.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 22.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 86.8% houses and 13.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Goonellabah stood at 37.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.0% and rented ones at 29.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,560, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,452. The median weekly rent in Goonellabah was $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Goonellabah's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,560 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Goonellabah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 65.3% of all households, including 24.1% that are couples with children, 25.6% that are couples without children, and 14.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.7%, with lone person households at 31.3% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, matching the average for the Rest of NSW.

Educational outcomes in Goonellabah fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.0% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 28.0%. Educational participation is high, with 28.2% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.8% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Goonellabah shows that there are 334 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 45 individual routes providing service to the area. In terms of passenger trips, these routes collectively offer 751 weekly trips.

The accessibility of public transport in Goonellabah is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 111 meters away from the nearest transport stop on average. Regarding service frequency, there are approximately 107 trips made per day across all routes, which equates to about two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Goonellabah is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Goonellabah faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 50% (~6,939 people) of Goonellabah's total population has private health cover, compared to 46.8% across the Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 11.2% and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 59.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 61.9% across the Rest of NSW. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) comprising 22.0% (3,030 people) of its total residents. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Goonellabah is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Goonellabah's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.3% of its population being Australian citizens, 89.8% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Goonellabah, comprising 55.2% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which makes up 1.6% of the population compared to 1.1% across the rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are Australian (30.1%), English (30.0%), and Irish (9.3%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 5.3% compared to 4.6% regionally, Scottish at 8.0% versus 8.5%, and Italian at 3.2% compared to 2.6%.

Goonellabah's median age exceeds the national pattern

Goonellabah's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38. The 0-4 age group constitutes 6.8%, higher than the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 11.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 0-4 age group has increased from 5.9% to 6.8%, and the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 11.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Goonellabah's age profile. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 18%, adding 305 residents to reach 2,028. Meanwhile, population declines are expected for the 65-74 and 55-64 cohorts.