Doncaster

Doncaster lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, Doncaster's population is estimated at around 28,565 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,545 people (14.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,020 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 28,176 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 476 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,253 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Doncaster's 14.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (9.6%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant increase is forecast for the Doncaster statistical area (Lv2), with an expected growth of 10,638 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 36.0% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Doncaster was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Doncaster recorded approximately 175 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 877 homes were approved, with a further 77 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 4.3 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually over these five years.

This indicates supply is lagging demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers focus on the premium market, with an average construction value of $741,000 for new homes. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $110.0 million, reflecting high local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Doncaster has slightly more development, 16.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values.

New development consists of 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 53.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. Doncaster has around 185 people per approval, reflecting a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Doncaster is expected to grow by 10,288 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Doncaster has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 44 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Eastern Freeway Upgrades, North East Link - Doncaster Interchange Upgrades, Westfield Doncaster Expansion, and 686 Doncaster Apartments. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Doncaster has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Doncaster has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 5.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of September 2025, 14,380 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.7%, which is 0.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation in Doncaster lags behind Greater Melbourne at 57.1% compared to 64.1%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

Manufacturing has a limited presence with 4.9% employment compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.0% while labour force increased by 2.9%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, with unemployment rising to 5.0%. State-level data from Victoria as of 25-Nov shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Doncaster's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Doncaster for financial year 2023 was $44,922. The average income was $64,883. This is lower than the national average. In Greater Melbourne, the median income was $57,688 and the average was $75,164. By September 2025, based on an 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023, the estimated median income would be approximately $48,628 and the average would be around $70,236. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Doncaster ranked modestly, between the 32nd and 41st percentiles for households, families, and individuals. The largest income segment comprised 29.7% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This is consistent with broader trends across regional levels, where 32.8% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures in Doncaster are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Doncaster displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluation in Doncaster showed that 53.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 46.9% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.1% houses and 32.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Doncaster stood at 39.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 32.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, lower than Melbourne metro's average of $2,400. The median weekly rent in Doncaster was $450, compared to Melbourne metro's $462. Nationally, Doncaster's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $450 compared to the national figure of $375.

Doncaster has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.6% of all households, including 29.4% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.4%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Doncaster shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Doncaster, educational attainment exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 45.0% have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.3%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational pathways account for 21.9% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 10.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in tertiary education, 7.1% in primary education, and 6.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Doncaster shows there are currently 109 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops primarily serve bus routes, with a total of 33 individual routes providing service. The collective weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 6,194.

Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 191 meters to the nearest transport stop. The overall service frequency averages 884 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 56 weekly trips per individual stop.

Doncaster's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Doncaster. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 52% of the total population (~14,996 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Melbourne's 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 6.8%) and asthma (5.2%). A majority, 74.8%, declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 74.0%. Doncaster has 21.8% of residents aged 65 and over (6,227 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 22.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Doncaster is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Doncaster has a high level of cultural diversity, with 60.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 56.5% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Doncaster, making up 43.2% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.9% of Doncaster's population versus 5.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (31.4%), Other (13.2%), and English (12.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Greek is slightly overrepresented at 7.2%, Korean is more prominent at 1.4%, and Italian is underrepresented at 5.8%.

Doncaster's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Doncaster has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Doncaster at 8.1%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 13.9% to 14.8% of the population. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Doncaster's age profile. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand by 1,495 people (46%), growing from 3,227 to 4,723.