Doncaster

Doncaster lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Doncaster, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, was approximately 28,312 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 3,292 people (13.2%) compared to the previous population count of 25,020 in 2021. AreaSearch's estimation is derived from the resident population of 28,265, which was calculated following an examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 476 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,224 persons per square kilometer for Doncaster, placing it in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch nationwide. Doncaster's population growth of 13.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of both its SA3 area (7.0%) and SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader within the region. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting them using weighted aggregation methods to apply population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, a significant population increase is forecasted for Doncaster within the top quartile of national statistical areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by an additional 10,617 persons by the year 2041, reflecting a total gain of 37.2% over the course of 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Doncaster was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Doncaster indicates approximately 177 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 889 homes were approved, with a further 51 approved so far in FY26. On average, 4.2 new residents per year arrive per dwelling constructed during this period.

This suggests supply is lagging behind demand, potentially leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $741,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $138.2 million, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Doncaster has slightly more development, at 18.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. New development consists of 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing, providing accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This trend represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 53.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. Doncaster reflects a developing area, with approximately 177 people per approval. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates Doncaster will grow by 10,520 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Doncaster has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 44 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Eastern Freeway Upgrades, North East Link - Doncaster Interchange Upgrades, Westfield Doncaster Expansion, and Eastern Freeway Upgrades - Tram Road to Springvale Road. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Doncaster has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Doncaster has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 5.0% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.2%. As of June 2025, 14,290 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.0%, which is 0.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Doncaster was 57.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%.

The dominant employment sectors among residents included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Manufacturing had a limited presence with 4.9% employment compared to the regional average of 7.2%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, while labour force increased by 3.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from September 2022 offer insights into potential future demand within Doncaster. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Doncaster's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Doncaster shows a median taxpayer income of $44,935 and an average of $64,902 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2022. This is in line with national averages, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. As of September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% would be approximately $50,399 (median) and $72,794 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Doncaster rank modestly, between the 32nd and 41st percentiles. The distribution shows that the largest segment comprises 29.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (8,408 residents), consistent with broader regional trends showing 32.8% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Doncaster displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluated Doncaster's dwelling structure as 53.1% houses and 46.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.1% houses and 32.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Doncaster was at 39.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 32.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,400. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $450 compared to Melbourne metro's $462. Nationally, Doncaster's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Doncaster has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.6% of all households, including 29.4% couples with children, 28.5% couples without children, and 11.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.4%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Doncaster shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Doncaster's educational attainment significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. 45.0% of residents aged 15+ hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in Victoria (VIC). This advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 28.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.3% and graduate diplomas at 3.1%.

Vocational pathways account for 21.9% of qualifications among those aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 10.6%. Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.8% in tertiary education, 7.1% in primary education, and 6.5% pursuing secondary education. Doncaster's five schools have a combined enrollment reaching 2,609 students as of the latest available data (specific date not provided). The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1114. Education provision is balanced with three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. School places per 100 residents fall below the regional average at 9.2, compared to the regional average of 12.8, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 108 active public transport stops in Doncaster. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 32 individual routes. Together, they facilitate 11,859 weekly passenger trips.

Residential accessibility to these stops is rated excellent, with residents typically located 191 metres from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,694 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 109 weekly trips per individual stop.

Doncaster's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Doncaster. Both young and old age cohorts have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~14,866 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 55.0%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.8 and 5.2% of residents respectively. A total of 74.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.0% across Greater Melbourne. Doncaster has 21.8% of residents aged 65 and over (6,172 people), which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 22.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Doncaster is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Doncaster has a high level of cultural diversity, with 60.3% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 56.5% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Doncaster, making up 43.2% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 6.9% of Doncaster's population versus 5.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are Chinese at 31.4%, Other at 13.2%, and English at 12.4%. Some ethnic groups have notable differences in representation: Greek is overrepresented at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 7.6%, Korean is also overrepresented at 1.4% versus 0.9%, while Italian shows a divergence with 5.8% compared to the regional figure of 8.3%.

Doncaster's median age exceeds the national pattern

Doncaster has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Doncaster at 8.1%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 13.9% to 14.8% of the population. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Doncaster's age profile will significantly change. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to expand by 1,519 people (48%), growing from 3,199 to 4,719.