Blackburn North

An assessment of population growth drivers in Blackburn North reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Blackburn North's population is estimated at around 7,820 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 7,627 people, representing a rise of 193 individuals (2.5%). The current resident population estimate of 7,748 by AreaSearch follows examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and includes an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,885 persons per square kilometer, placing Blackburn North in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 96.0% of overall population gains during recent periods for the suburb.

AreaSearch is utilising ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, making adjustments using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Blackburn North is expected to grow by approximately 871 persons to reach a total of around 8,691 people by 2041. This reflects an anticipated gain of about 14.6% in population over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackburn North according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Blackburn North has seen approximately 8 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 40 homes were approved between FY21 and FY25, with another 3 approved in FY26. Each year, an average of 3.6 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

This significant demand outpaces supply, potentially driving up prices and increasing competition among buyers. The average construction value of new properties is $781,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, commercial approvals totaled $1.9 million, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Comparatively, Blackburn North has significantly less development activity than Greater Melbourne, being 88.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. Nationally, this activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity shows a split of 43.0% detached dwellings and 57.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant departure from the existing housing pattern which is currently 83.0% houses. At around 667 people per approval, Blackburn North indicates a mature, established area. Population forecasts suggest Blackburn North will gain 1,141 residents by 2041 according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Blackburn North has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. Six projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact this region. Notable ones include Blackburn Activity Centre, Blackburn Square, Eastland Shopping Centre Stage 6 Development, and The Pines Retirement Living. The following details these projects in order of likely relevance.

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Employment performance in Blackburn North has been broadly consistent with national averages

Blackburn North has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.2% as of June 2025, which is below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.2%. There are 4,408 residents in work, and workforce participation is similar to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade.

However, construction is under-represented with only 7.7% of Blackburn North's workforce compared to 9.7% in Greater Melbourne. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 4.2%, while labour force increased by 3.3%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne experienced employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%, with an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Blackburn North. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Blackburn North's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Blackburn North's median income among taxpayers was $49,958 according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended 30 June 2022. Average income stood at $72,534 in the same period. These figures compared to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year ended 30 June 2022, current estimates for Blackburn North would be approximately $56,033 (median) and $81,354 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Blackburn North clustered around the 59th percentile nationally. Income distribution showed that 29.1% of individuals earned between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring surrounding regions where 32.8% occupied this bracket. Notably, 31.2% earned above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 15.4% of income, yet strong earnings placed disposable income at the 67th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Blackburn North is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Blackburn North, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.3% houses and 16.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Melbourne metro had 60.2% houses and 39.8% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackburn North stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.4% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure in Blackburn North was $431, compared to Melbourne metro's $412. Nationally, Blackburn North's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $431 compared to the national figure of $375.

Blackburn North has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.4% of all households, including 42.5% couples with children, 22.1% couples without children, and 9.9% single parent families. The remaining 24.6% are non-family households, consisting of 20.8% lone person households and 3.6% group households. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.5.

Blackburn North demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Blackburn North has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above, with 42.4% holding university qualifications. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. The area's educational advantage is evident in various qualification types: bachelor degrees at 27.7%, postgraduate qualifications at 10.7%, and graduate diplomas at 4.0%. Vocational pathways are also significant, with 24.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (12.3%).

Educational participation is high in Blackburn North, with 31.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.8%), secondary education (8.4%), and tertiary education (6.3%). The three schools in the area have a combined enrollment of 833 students. These schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Blackburn North has a lower ratio of school places per 100 residents (10.7) compared to the regional average (14.4), indicating that some students may attend schools outside the area.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackburn North has 41 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 4,366 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 169 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 623 trips per day, which translates to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Blackburn North's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Blackburn North performed well on health metrics across age groups.

Young and older residents had low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover was high at approximately 55%, covering around 4,338 people. The most prevalent medical conditions were asthma (6.9%) and mental health issues (6.4%), with 73.4% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 73.9%. Blackburn North had 16.6% residents aged 65 and over (1,298 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 17.7%. Health outcomes among seniors were above average, aligning with the general population's health profile.

Blackburn North is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackburn North has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.6% of its population born overseas and 39.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Blackburn North, making up 45.2% of the population. However, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 4.1% versus 6.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (19.1%), Chinese (18.5%), and Australian (18.4%). Notably, Greek (3.7%) and Vietnamese (1.5%) populations are higher than the regional averages of 3.0% and 1.3%, respectively.

Blackburn North's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Blackburn North is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Blackburn North at 14.2%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 10.9%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.2% to 14.2% of the population, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 14.5% to 13.1%. Population forecasts for Blackburn North in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. Notably, the 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50%, increasing from 461 people to 691. Conversely, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.