Box Hill

Box Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

AreaSearch indicates that Box Hill has a population of approximately 28,036 in May 2026. This represents an expansion of 5,195 people (22.7%) from the 2021 Census, which documented 22,841 residents. This shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 27,211 and 1,477 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Consequently, the local density stands at 3,999 persons per square kilometer, positioning it within the top 10% of all areas analyzed by AreaSearch and highlights the high demand for local land. The 22.7% rate of growth since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA4 region (8.9%) and the state, establishing the suburb as a regional growth leader. This population rise was driven mostly by arrivals from overseas, who accounted for roughly 98.7% of the total demographic growth in recent times.

For each SA2 boundary, AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. In instances where SA2 details are unavailable, projections are sourced from the 2023 Victorian State Government release, modified using a weighted system to aggregate growth from LGA down to SA2 dimensions. Age demographic growth projections from these models are further applied across all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these changing demographic patterns, significant population gains within the highest national quartile are anticipated. The district is projected to add 8,843 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which would represent a 28.6% increase over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Box Hill among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

An average of approximately 401 residential approvals have been granted annually in Box Hill, resulting in 2,005 dwellings over the last 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 108 approvals have been logged. The market has remained balanced with steady conditions, supported by an average of 1.5 new residents per constructed dwelling between FY-21 and FY-25. However, recent figures show this metric climbing to 10.4 people per dwelling over the last 2 financial years, pointing to heightened popularity and possible supply bottlenecks. The construction cost for new dwellings averages $308,000, which aligns with regional patterns. Furthermore, commercial developments worth $233.5 million have been approved in this financial year, illustrating strong local business investment.

Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill displays 96.0% more development activity on a per capita basis, offering buyers a broad range of options despite a recent slowdown. This volume is far higher than the national standard, showing intense developer focus. Recent residential builds consist of 13.0% detached houses and 87.0% higher-density options like townhouses and apartments. This concentration on denser formats provides more budget-friendly paths to homeownership, catering to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a distinct departure from the current local housing profile, which consists of 37.0% houses, showing that developable land is becoming scarcer as lifestyle preferences evolve toward varied, affordable housing. With a ratio of about 323 people per approval, Box Hill indicates a market in transition.

Projections indicate that Box Hill will gain 8,013 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. If development remains at current speeds, the volume of new housing should easily accommodate this influx, yielding favorable buying conditions and potentially facilitating growth beyond current population estimates.

Box Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure improvements, major developments, and urban planning decisions strongly influence area performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 35 projects expected to impact this locality. The most relevant projects include Wembley Hill Townhomes, the Box Hill City Oval Redevelopment, the Box Hill Metropolitan Activity Centre - Public Realm initiative, and the Suburban Rail Loop East - Box Hill Station.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Box Hill recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

The local workforce is highly educated, featuring a strong representation of professional services workers, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and an estimated job growth rate of 1.4% over the prior year. In March 2026, 15,166 local residents were employed. The unemployment rate sits 1.3% higher than the Greater Melbourne rate of 4.8%, while the participation rate is slightly below average at 66.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.2%. Census records show that a substantial 33.8% of the working population operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

Local employment is largely concentrated within the sectors of health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and accommodation & food. In particular, the area displays a specialized focus on accommodation & food, where the employment share is 1.7 times the regional benchmark. Conversely, the construction sector accounts for only 6.9% of the local workforce, which is below the Greater Melbourne average of 9.7%. A ratio of 0.9 workers per resident at the time of the Census indicates a strong local job market.

According to SALM and ABS statistics compiled by AreaSearch, employment grew by 1.4% and the overall labor force expanded by 2.6% in the year leading up to March 2026, which led to a 1.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. This differed from Greater Melbourne, where employment expanded by 2.1%, the labor force increased by 2.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 offer additional context regarding long-term local demand. These five and ten-year forecasts have been mapped against the local industry profile to estimate future growth trends. Nationally, employment is predicted to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. When these national industry trends are applied to the local workforce mix, Box Hill is projected to see employment increases of 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years. Note that this calculation is a basic weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for specific local population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on ATO postcode data compiled for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Box Hill SA2 recorded a median income of $45,002 and an average income of $62,103. These figures are below the national standard and compare to median and average levels of $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates for March 2026 stand at approximately $49,331 for median income and $68,077 for average income. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Box Hill were relatively low, falling between the 25th and 32nd percentiles. The statistics show that 27.8% of residents (7,794 individuals) have incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is similar to the broader region where 32.8% fall into this bracket. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only 78.2% of their income, placing the area in the 23rd percentile, while the SEIFA index for income places the suburb in the 6th decile.

Box Hill displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the latest Census, the housing mix in Box Hill was comprised of 37.2% separate houses and 62.7% multi-unit dwellings such as townhouses and apartments, compared to 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings across Greater Melbourne. The home ownership rate in Box Hill was lower than the metropolitan Melbourne level, sitting at 25.3%, with remaining households holding mortgages (25.1%) or renting (49.6%). The median monthly mortgage payment was higher than the Melbourne metropolitan average at $2,088, while the median weekly rent was $391, compared to metropolitan averages of $2,000 and $390. On a national level, Box Hill's median mortgage costs are higher than the Australian benchmark of $1,863, and weekly rents exceed the national median of $375.

Box Hill features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 60.9% of all local households, consisting of 24.3% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 9.6% single-parent households. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 39.1%, with single-person households representing 30.4% and group households making up 8.8%. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Box Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The level of education in Box Hill is notably higher than broader geographical averages, with 48.2% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This provides the local community with a strong foundation for professional opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common credential at 29.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational training accounts for 21.1% of qualifications among residents aged 15 and over, split between advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (9.4%).

There is a high level of educational enrollment locally, with 35.7% of the population participating in formal study. This figure is made up of 12.7% in tertiary institutions, 7.0% in secondary schools, and 6.7% in primary schools.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of transport options shows 146 active public transport stops within Box Hill, consisting of light rail and bus services. These stops support 36 distinct routes, which accommodate 13,979 weekly passenger journeys. Access is highly rated, with residents living an average of 153 meters from the nearest stop. The majority of working residents commute out of the suburb, with private cars being the primary mode of travel at 64%, followed by trains at 17% and walking at 9%. Average vehicle ownership is 0.8 cars per household, which is below the metropolitan standard. Additionally, 33.8% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 1,997 daily trips, which translates to approximately 95 weekly services per stop. The map shows the locations of the 100 closest stops to the center of the suburb.

Box Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health indicators in Box Hill show positive outcomes, with AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic illnesses showing low rates of common health conditions among both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 50% of the population (~13,961 people), which compares to 56.7% in Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical issues reported in the suburb are mental health conditions and asthma, which affect 6.5% and 5.4% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 77.5% of the population reported no chronic medical conditions, compared to 72.6% across Greater Melbourne. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 14.4% of the population (4,051 people), and health measurements for this demographic remain positive, matching general population trends.

Box Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill ranks as one of the country's most culturally diverse communities, with 55.3% of the population speaking a non-English language at home and 56.5% born overseas. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, representing 31.3% of residents. However, the most pronounced difference compared to the wider Melbourne metropolitan area is in Buddhism, which is practiced by 8.1% of the local population compared to 4.2% regionally.

Regarding parental birthplace, Chinese ancestry is the most common at 32.7% of the population, which is considerably higher than the metropolitan average of 6.5%. English ancestry stands at 16.4%, and Australian ancestry is at 13.0%, which is lower than the regional average of 18.4%. Other notable differences in ethnic representation include Korean ancestry at 1.2% (compared to 0.3% regionally), Sri Lankan at 0.6% (compared to 0.8% regionally), and Vietnamese at 1.6% (compared to 1.9% regionally).

Box Hill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Box Hill has a median age of 33, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne median of 37 and the national average of 38. The suburb contains a higher proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 (23.4%) compared to Greater Melbourne, but fewer children aged 5 to 14 (8.0%). The concentration of residents aged 25 to 34 is also higher than the national average of 14.6%. Since the 2021 Census, this 25 to 34 group has increased from 21.4% to 23.4% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort has risen from 16.4% to 17.4%, while the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 12.1% to 10.8%. Demographic projections for 2041 point to continued changes, with the 25 to 34 cohort expected to grow by 30%, adding 1,966 residents to reach a total of 8,521.