Box Hill

Box Hill lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Box Hill's population is approximately 29,872 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 7,031 people, a rise of 30.8% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 22,841. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 26,669 in June 2024 and an additional 1,262 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 4,261 persons per square kilometer, placing Box Hill in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. The growth rate of 30.8% exceeds the national average of 9.7%, positioning Box Hill as a growth leader in its SA4 region. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was the principal factor contributing to population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Box Hill is forecasted to experience significant population increase, with an expected growth of 10,068 persons to reach a total population of 40,939 by 2041. This reflects a gain of 23.0% in total over the 17-year period from 2025 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Box Hill among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Box Hill has recorded approximately 401 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 2,005 homes have been approved, with an additional 90 approved so far in FY26. Based on average population growth of 1.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years, supply and demand appear balanced, maintaining stable market conditions. However, recent data shows this has increased to 15.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Box Hill's growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $308,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. This year alone, there have been $233.5 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill shows 99.0% higher development activity per person, offering buyers ample choice despite a recent slowdown in building activity. The current construction composition comprises 13.0% detached houses and 87.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of 37.0% houses. This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With approximately 310 people per dwelling approval, there is room for growth in Box Hill's population. Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects an increase of 6,864 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels continue, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Box Hill has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include Wembley Hill Townhomes, Box Hill City Oval Redevelopment, Box Hill Metropolitan Activity Centre - Public Realm, and Suburban Rail Loop East - Box Hill Station. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Box Hill has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Box Hill has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 5.1% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of September 2025, 15,173 residents are employed at an unemployment rate of 5.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 67.7% compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census data shows 33.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (25.4%), professional & technical services (21.2%), and accommodation & food (16.3%). The latter sector has notable concentration at 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 6.9% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between August 2024 and July 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, labour force by 3.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0% while unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May-25) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Box Hill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Box Hill SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $45,002 and an average income of $62,103. Nationally, the averages were $57,688 (median) and $75,164 (average). By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $48,715 (median) and $67,226 (average), accounting for an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census places Box Hill's household, family, and personal incomes between the 25th and 32nd percentiles. Income analysis reveals 27.8% of residents (8,304 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to the regional average of 32.8%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 78.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile. Box Hill's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Box Hill displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Box Hill's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 37.2% houses and 62.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Box Hill stood at 25.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.1% and rented ones at 49.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,088, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Box Hill was $391, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Box Hill's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Box Hill features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 60.9% of all households, including 24.3% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.1%, with lone person households at 30.4% and group households comprising 8.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Box Hill demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Box Hill residents aged 15 and above have a higher educational attainment than national and state averages. University qualifications are held by 48.2% of Box Hill residents, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. This is driven by Bachelor degrees (29.3%), postgraduate qualifications (15.4%), and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational pathways account for 21.1%, with advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 9.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 35.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes tertiary education (12.7%), secondary education (7.0%), and primary education (6.7%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Box Hill has 146 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 36 individual routes that together facilitate 13,979 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 153 meters to the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential, with most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 64%, followed by trains at 17% and walking at 9%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.8 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 33.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,997 trips per day, equating to approximately 95 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Box Hill's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance throughout Box Hill. AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence shows both young and old age cohorts have a low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population, which comprises around 14,876 people.

This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne and 55.7% nationally. Mental health issues impact 6.5% of residents, while asthma affects 5.4%. Approximately 77.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. The area has around 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling approximately 4,382 people. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Box Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Box Hill has a highly diverse population, with 55.3% speaking a language other than English at home and 56.5% born overseas as of the latest data from 2016. Christianity is the predominant religion in Box Hill, with 31.3%, though Buddhism is notably overrepresented at 8.1% compared to Greater Melbourne's 4.2%. The top three ancestry groups are Chinese (32.7%), English (16.4%), and Australian (13.0%), with Chinese being significantly higher than the regional average of 6.5%.

Other ethnic groups like Korean (1.2%) and Vietnamese (1.6%) also show notable representation, differing from their respective regional averages.

Box Hill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Box Hill has a median age of 33, which is younger than Greater Melbourne's figure of 37 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Box Hill has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national figure of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of Box Hill's population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 21.4% to 22.5%, while the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has risen from 16.4% to 17.5%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 12.1% to 11.2%. By 2041, Box Hill's population is projected to undergo substantial demographic changes. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 23%, adding 1,534 residents and reaching a total of 8,259. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 age group is projected to grow by a modest 4%, with an increase of 87 people.