Dubbo - South

Dubbo - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dubbo - South's population is approximately 20,728 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 1,100 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,628. The growth was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data and validated new addresses. The population density is around 815 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Dubbo - South's growth rate of 5.6% since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA4 region (3.4%) and SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Dubbo - South is expected to grow by 4,625 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 20.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Dubbo - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has recorded approximately 253 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,269 homes were approved, with an additional 142 approved so far in FY-26. On average, only about one person per year has moved to the area for each dwelling built during these years, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice.

This trend also creates capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes over this period was $307,000. In FY-26, $33.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum in the area. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Dubbo - South records 128.0% more construction activity per person, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location and offering buyers greater choice. The new building activity in Dubbo - South shows a mix of housing types: approximately 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 81.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, creating more diverse and affordable housing options.

With around 72 people per dwelling approval, Dubbo - South displays characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 4,309 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dubbo - South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 20thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects expected to impact the region. Notable ones include Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, The Village Southlakes, Keswick Estate Residential Development, and Southlakes Estate. The following list outlines those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Dubbo - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of September 2025. It has an unemployment rate 1.8% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 64.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but has lower representation in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 1.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.8%, and employment declined by 4.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate.

State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dubbo - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Dubbo - South SA2 is $55,510 and average income is $65,556. This compares to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (12.61%), estimated incomes are approximately $62,510 (median) and $73,823 (average). Census 2021 income data ranks personal income at the 66th percentile ($896 weekly) and household income at the 45th percentile. Income brackets indicate 35.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999 annually (7,337 individuals), aligning with metropolitan regions where this cohort represents 29.9%. After housing expenses, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Dubbo - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Dubbo - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 88.0% houses and 12.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dubbo - South was at 27.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 38.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,567, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,450. The median weekly rent was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Dubbo - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dubbo - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.8% of all households, consisting of 27.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Dubbo - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 26.4% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 18.4% and the SA3 area rate of 20.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.0% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (27.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Dubbo - South indicates that there are currently 371 active transport stops operating, all of which service buses. These stops are served by a total of 70 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,412 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 138 meters from the nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 201 trips per day, equating to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dubbo - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Dubbo South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups, but somewhat higher among older cohorts. The area has approximately 52% private health cover, compared to the average SA2 area and Rest of NSW at 49.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma (9.1%) and mental health issues (8.9%). About 66.0% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the 64.1% in Rest of NSW. Around 16.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (3,447 people), lower than the 19.5% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to presenting challenges.

Dubbo - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dubbo-South had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.1% of its population being Australian citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 87.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dubbo-South, accounting for 62.5%, compared to 65.6% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (9.8%).

Notably, Sri Lankan, Irish, and Indian ethnicities had higher representations in Dubbo-South than regionally, at 0.3%, 8.8%, and 1.7% respectively versus 0.1%, 8.2%, and 0.8%.

Dubbo - South's population is younger than the national pattern

Dubbo-South's median age is 34, which is lower than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Dubbo-South has an over-representation of the 25-34 cohort (18.6% locally) and under-representation of those aged 65-74 (8.2%). Between 2021 and present, the population of those aged 35 to 44 grew from 12.4% to 14.4%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 17.5% to 18.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 10.8% to 9.4%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 10.5% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Dubbo-South's age profile will significantly change. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to expand by 1,212 people (41%), growing from 2,988 to 4,201. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort grows modestly by 72 people (4%).