Dubbo - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Dubbo - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dubbo - South's population is approximately 20,728 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,100 people from the 2021 Census count of 19,628, indicating a growth rate of 5.6%. The change is inferred from ABS estimates showing an ERP of 20,421 in June 2024 and an additional 802 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 815 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Dubbo - South's growth of 5.6% since the 2021 census exceeds both the SA4 region (3.4%) and the SA3 area, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, regional areas across the nation are projected to experience above median population growth. Dubbo - South is expected to expand by 4,625 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, representing a total increase of 20.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Dubbo - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has recorded approximately 253 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,269 homes were approved, with an additional 125 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years is approximately one person.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $307,000. In FY-26, $33.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Relative to the rest of NSW, Dubbo - South records 128.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. The new building activity shows a mix of housing types: 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% medium and high-density housing. This represents an expanding range of medium-density options, creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives.

This is a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 81.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for diverse, affordable housing options. Dubbo - South has a population density characteristic of low-density areas, with around 72 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, Dubbo - South is expected to grow by 4,309 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dubbo - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects potentially impacting the area. Notable ones include Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, The Village Southlakes, Keswick Estate Residential Development, and Southlakes Estate. Below is a list detailing those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Dubbo - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of June 2025. It has 10,177 residents in work, which is 1.5% below the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

The workforce participation rate is 64.6%, compared to 56.4% for the Rest of NSW. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.7% and employment declined by 2.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Dubbo - South's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.3% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Dubbo - South is $55,510 and average income is $65,556. This is similar to national averages. In contrast, Rest of NSW has a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 until September 2025 (an increase of 12.61%), estimated incomes would be approximately $62,510 (median) and $73,823 (average). According to Census 2021 data, personal income ranks at the 66th percentile ($896 weekly), while household income is at the 45th percentile. The largest income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, capturing 35.4% of individuals (7,337). After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. Dubbo - South's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Dubbo - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Dubbo - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 88.0% houses and 12.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dubbo - South was at 27.9%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,567, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,450. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Dubbo - South's median mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dubbo - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 65.8% of all households, including 27.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up 34.2%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Dubbo - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's educational profile is notable with university qualification rates at 26.4% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 18.4% and the SA3 area rate of 20.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 27.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.5% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. Eleven schools serve 4,838 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 956) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes five primary, three secondary, and three K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs (23.4 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 16.2), indicating the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dubbo South has 371 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 70 different routes that together facilitate 1,412 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 138 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 201 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dubbo - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Dubbo - South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across all age groups but slightly higher among older cohorts. Approximately 52% of its total population (~10,861 people) has private health cover, compared to the Rest of NSW's 49.7%.

The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.1 and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 66.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across the Rest of NSW. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (3,447 people), which is lower than the 19.5% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population.

Dubbo - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dubbo-South had a cultural diversity index below average, with 84.1% of its population being citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 87.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dubbo-South, comprising 62.5%, compared to 65.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (9.8%).

Notably, Sri Lankan, Irish, and Indian ethnicities showed higher representation in Dubbo-South than the regional average: Sri Lankan at 0.3% vs 0.1%, Irish at 8.8% vs 8.2%, and Indian at 1.7% vs 0.8%.

Dubbo - South's population is younger than the national pattern

Dubbo - South's median age is 34, which is considerably lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Dubbo - South at 18.6%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 8.2%. Between 2021 and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.4% to 14.4% of the population, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 17.5% to 18.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 10.8% to 9.4%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 10.5% to 9.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Dubbo - South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to expand notably, with an increase of 1,212 people (41%) from 2,988 to 4,201. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 4% (72 people).