Dubbo - South
Statistical Area - sa2

Dubbo - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dubbo - South's population is approximately 20,647 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,019 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,628. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,429 in June 2024 and an additional 765 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 811 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Dubbo - South's growth rate of 5.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, regional areas across the nation are expected to experience above median growth, with Dubbo - South projected to expand by 4,625 persons to 2041, an increase of 21.3% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Dubbo - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Dubbo-South recorded approximately 253 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 1,269 homes were approved, with an additional 114 approved so far in FY-26. On average, one person per year moved to the area for each dwelling built during these years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes was $366,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $33.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum in Dubbo-South compared to the rest of NSW. This area has 128.0% more building activity per person than the rest of NSW and substantially higher activity than the national average, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity in Dubbo-South consists of approximately 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 81.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with an increasing need for diverse and affordable housing options.

With around 72 people per dwelling approval, Dubbo-South shows characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate that Dubbo-South will gain approximately 4,390 residents by the year 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dubbo - South has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, The Village Southlakes, Keswick Estate Residential Development, and Southlakes Estate. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Dubbo - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.1% as of June 2025. It has an unemployment rate 1.5% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and its workforce participation is at 64.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW average of 56.4%.

Employment in Dubbo - South is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes particularly in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

Over the year ending June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.7%, and employment declined by 2.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally, with local growth in Dubbo - South estimated at approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.3% over ten years based on industry-specific projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Income data for Dubbo - South from AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO figures for financial year 2022 shows median income at $55,510 and average income at $65,556. This is in line with national averages. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (estimated at 12.61%), current estimates for Dubbo - South would be approximately $62,510 median and $73,823 average. Census 2021 income data ranks personal income at the 66th percentile ($896 weekly) and household income at the 45th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 35.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 to $2,999 annually (7,309 individuals), similar to metropolitan regions where this group represents 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Dubbo - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Dubbo - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 88.0% houses and 12.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dubbo - South stood at 27.9%, with the rest either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,567, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,450. Median weekly rent in Dubbo - South was $320, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Dubbo - South's median monthly mortgage repayment was lower at $1,567 than the Australian average of $1,863, and median weekly rent was also lower at $320 compared to the national figure of $375.

Dubbo - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.8% of all households, including 27.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Dubbo - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 26.4% among residents aged 15+, higher than the SA4 region average of 18.4% and the SA3 area average of 20.3%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 27.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education. There are 11 schools serving 4,838 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 956) indicating balanced educational opportunities. The area has 5 primary, 3 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 23.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.2, suggesting the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dubbo-South has 371 active transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are covered by 70 different routes that together facilitate 1,412 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 138 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

On average, there are 201 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dubbo - South is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a slightly higher degree among older age cohorts

Dubbo - South faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area but slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 49.7%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.1% and 8.9% of residents respectively. However, 66.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.1% across Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.6%, with 3,433 people falling into this age category. While the number of seniors is lower than in Rest of NSW (19.5%), they face unique health challenges that require more attention.

Dubbo - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dubbo-South had 84.1% citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 87.4% speaking English only at home, indicating below average cultural diversity. Christianity was the main religion, at 62.5%, compared to 65.6% across Rest of NSW. Top ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (9.8%).

Sri Lankan, Irish, and Indian ethnicities had notable divergences: Sri Lankan was 0.3% (vs regional 0.1%), Irish was 8.8% (vs 8.2%), and Indian was 1.7% (vs 0.8%).

Dubbo - South's population is younger than the national pattern

Dubbo - South has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Dubbo - South at 18.6%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 8.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 12.4% to 14.4% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 17.5% to 18.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.8% to 9.4%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 10.5% to 9.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Dubbo - South's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 1,223 people (41%) from 2,977 to 4,201. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort grows by a modest 4% (79 people).