Dubbo - South

Dubbo - South lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Dubbo - South's population is approximately 20,914 as of May 2026. From the 2021 Census figure of 19,628 people, this represents an increase of 1,286 individuals (6.6%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 20,713 in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 822 persons per square kilometer. Dubbo - South's growth of 6.6% since the 2021 census exceeds the SA4 region (2.8%) and the SA3 area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 53.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate an above median growth for regional areas nationally, with Dubbo - South expected to expand by 4,353 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Dubbo - South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South approved approximately 253 residential properties annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 1,269 homes were approved, with an additional 189 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, one person moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice.

The average construction cost value of new homes was $307,000. In FY-26, approximately $33.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Dubbo - South records 127.0% more construction activity per person, suggesting high developer confidence in the location. The new building activity consists of 53.0% detached houses and 47.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This shift indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options. With around 72 people per dwelling approval, Dubbo - South exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

By 2041, it is projected to grow by approximately 4,151 residents, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dubbo - South has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone, The Village Southlakes, Keswick Estate Residential Development, and Southlakes Estate. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Dubbo - South significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Dubbo - South has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 1.9% as of December 2025. It has an employment share in health care & social assistance that is 1.3 times the regional level, and lower representation in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 1.9%. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.9% alongside a 5.0% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points.

National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Dubbo - South's employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its local employment mix.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.9% alongside a 5.0% employment decline, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Dubbo - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Dubbo - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Dubbo - South SA2 is slightly above average nationally. The median income is $59,014 and the average income stands at $68,912. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $65,104 (median) and $76,024 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows personal income ranks at the 66th percentile ($896 weekly), while household income sits at the 45th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 35.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (7,403 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Dubbo - South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Dubbo - South, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.6% houses and 19.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dubbo - South was at 27.9%, with the rest either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,567, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was recorded at $320, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Dubbo - South's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Dubbo - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 65.8% of all households, including 27.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.2%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Educational outcomes in Dubbo - South fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 26.4% for residents aged 15+, surpassing the SA4 region average of 18.4%. This rate also exceeds that of the SA3 area (20.3%), indicating a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 17.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%.

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 37.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 27.5%. Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 389 active transport stops operating in Dubbo - South, consisting of buses only. These stops are serviced by 71 individual routes, providing a total of 1,705 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 139 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode at 94%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 8.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 243 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Dubbo - South is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Dubbo - South.

AreaSearch's assessment shows high mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is more prevalent than average at 53% (~11,147 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma (9.1%) and mental health issues (8.9%). Notably, 66.0% report no medical ailments compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. As of June 20XX, 16.4% (~3,425 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the regional average of 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings.

Dubbo - South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dubbo-South had a cultural diversity index below average, with 84.1% citizens, 86.4% born in Australia, and 87.4% speaking English only at home as of the 2016 Census. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 62.5%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.3%), English (27.3%), and Australian Aboriginal (9.8%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Notably, Sri Lankan (0.3%) and Indian (1.7%) groups had higher representation in Dubbo-South compared to Regional NSW averages of 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively.

Dubbo - South's population is younger than the national pattern

The median age of Dubbo - South is 34, which is significantly lower than the Regional NSW figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, individuals aged 25-34 are notably over-represented in Dubbo-South at 18.2%, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 8.3%. Between 2021 and present, the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 12.4% to 14.8% of the population. Conversely, the age groups of 45 to 54 have declined from 10.8% to 9.4%, and those aged 55 to 64 have dropped from 10.5% to 9.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Dubbo-South's age profile will evolve significantly. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to expand by 1,070 people (35%), growing from 3,101 to 4,172 individuals. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort grows by a modest 4%, adding 84 people.