Bruny Island - Kettering

Population growth drivers in Bruny Island - Kettering are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Bruny Island - Kettering's population was around 3,670 as of November 2025. This showed an increase of 223 people from the 2021 Census figure of 3,447, reflecting a growth rate of 6.5%. The change was inferred from the ABS estimated resident population of 3,607 in June 2024 and an additional 98 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density of 8.3 persons per square kilometer. Bruny Island - Kettering's growth rate exceeded both the state (4.8%) and non-metro areas, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 68.7% to overall population gains recently, though all factors including interstate migration and natural growth were positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are adopted and adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Future population dynamics suggest an increase just below Australia's non-metropolitan median growth rate, with the area expected to gain 440 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, indicating a total increase of 10.3% over 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Bruny Island - Kettering when compared nationally

Bruny Island - Kettering has seen approximately 22 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 113 homes. As of FY-26, 10 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted 2.6 new residents per year, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $287,000.

This financial year has seen $154,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. Bruny Island - Kettering has 12.0% less new development per person than the Rest of Tas., but it ranks among the 77th percentile nationally for new development. All new construction since FY-21 has been detached houses, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to families seeking space.

With around 166 people per approval, Bruny Island - Kettering reflects a developing area with a population forecast of 377 additional residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Bruny Island - Kettering has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 26thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects impacting this area. Notable initiatives include Hobart City Deal, Greater Hobart Urban Growth Boundary Extension, Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3, and Cethana Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Project. Relevant details are listed below.

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The labour market in Bruny Island - Kettering demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Bruny Island - Kettering has an unemployment rate of 2.3% as of September 2025, with 1,508 residents employed. This is 1.5 percentage points lower than the Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in the area is 50.6%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.9 times the regional average. Retail trade employs only 6.2% of local workers, below Rest of Tas.'s 10.1%.

Labour force levels decreased by 2.2% over the year to September 2025, while employment fell by 2.0%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Tas. experienced employment growth of 0.7% and labour force growth of 0.5%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows TAS employment contracted by 0.35%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.1%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bruny Island - Kettering's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Bruny Island - Kettering SA2 had a lower income level compared to national averages, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for the financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers was $43,905, with an average income of $59,964. This compares to Rest of Tas.'s median and average incomes of $47,358 and $57,384 respectively. Based on a 13.83% growth in wages from financial year 2022, current estimates for Bruny Island - Kettering's median income are approximately $49,977, and average income is around $68,257 as of September 2025. The 2021 Census showed that incomes in Bruny Island - Kettering fell between the 18th and 19th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets indicated that 29.2% of the community earned between $1,500 and $2,999 (1,071 individuals), which was consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region at 28.5%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 89.3% income retention, total disposable income ranked at just the 27th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Bruny Island - Kettering is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bruny Island - Kettering's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 96.9% houses and 3.1% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Non-Metro Tas. had 96.8% houses and 3.2% others. Home ownership in Bruny Island - Kettering was 57.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.2% and rented ones at 10.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,450, higher than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Bruny Island - Kettering was $300, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $290. Nationally, mortgage repayments were lower at $1,450 vs Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bruny Island - Kettering has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 72.1% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 42.5% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 27.9%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 1.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Bruny Island - Kettering exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Bruny Island - Kettering shows that 33.8% of residents aged 15 years and over have university qualifications, compared to 19.3% in the rest of Tasmania and 21.0% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.9%) and graduate diplomas (3.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (23.8%). A significant portion of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 24.5% engaged in studies including primary (9.6%), secondary (7.0%), and tertiary (3.2%) levels.

A substantial 24.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 29 active transport stops operating within Bruny Island - Kettering. These comprise a mix of buses serving 46 individual routes, collectively providing 5049 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated limited, with residents typically located 6351 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 721 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 174 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bruny Island - Kettering is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bruny Island - Kettering faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~1,816 people) have private health cover, compared to 47.1% in Rest of Tas., and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (8.8%), with 63.7% reporting no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of Tas.'s 62.7%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.0% (1,212 people), compared to Rest of Tas.'s 25.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average and better than the general population in health metrics.

Bruny Island - Kettering ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bruny Island-Kettering had a cultural diversity index below average, with 79.3% of its population born in Australia, 89.1% being citizens, and 94.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 33.3% of the population. While Judaism's representation was similar to the rest of Tasmania at 0.1%, there were notable overrepresentations in certain ethnic groups: Dutch (1.9%), French (0.8%), and Welsh (0.7%) compared to their regional percentages of 1.7%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively.

The top three ancestry groups were English at 34.9%, Australian at 26.1%, and Scottish at 10.2%.

Bruny Island - Kettering ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Bruny Island-Kettering is 54 years, notably higher than Rest of Tas.'s average of 45 years and significantly higher than Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group represents 19.1% of the population, which is stronger compared to Rest of Tas., while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 5.6%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.5% to 11.6%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 18.3% to 16.3%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 20.4% to 19.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Bruny Island-Kettering's age structure. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 43%, adding 199 residents to reach a total of 668. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 0-4 and 65-74 cohorts.