Geeveston - Dover

Population growth drivers in Geeveston - Dover are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, Geeveston - Dover's population is approximately 4,445, indicating a growth of 394 people since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 4,051. This increase represents a 9.7% rise from the 2021 figure. The estimated resident population in June 2025 was 4,408, with an additional 154 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 5.4 persons per square kilometer. Geeveston - Dover's population growth rate of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the state average (4.0%) and that of the Rest of Tas., positioning it as a region with notable growth. Overseas migration was the primary driver for this growth, contributing approximately 49.5% of overall population gains in recent periods.

However, all factors including interstate migration and natural growth were positive contributors to the population increase. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate post-2032 growth by age group, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are adopted after adjustments using a weighted aggregation method from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to experience above median population growth for national regional areas. By 2041, the latest annual ERP population numbers project an increase of 587 persons, reflecting a total increase of 12.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Geeveston - Dover among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Geeveston-Dover has approved approximately 35 residential properties each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, a total of 179 homes were granted approval, with an additional 15 approved in FY-26. On average, each dwelling accommodates around 2.5 new residents annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction value for new homes is $255,000. This year has seen $3.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Tas., Geeveston-Dover records 18.0% higher construction activity per person over the past five years.

Recent construction comprises 88.0% detached dwellings and 12.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low-density character. The location has approximately 133 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Geeveston-Dover is expected to grow by 550 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth.

Geeveston - Dover has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that may affect this region: Huon Link Road, Huonville ReImagined: Crafting a Future Huonville, Greater Hobart Urban Growth Boundary Extension, and Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3. The following list details those most relevant.

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Geeveston - Dover has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Geeveston-Dover has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation. The unemployment rate is 3.6% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year is estimated at 4.9%.

There are 1789 residents in work currently, which is 0.3% below Regional Tas.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 49.0%, compared to Regional Tas.'s 58.7%. Moderate home working is reported, with 14.0% of residents doing so. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly specialized, with an employment share 3.1 times the regional level. Health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.2%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Over December 2024 to December 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 4.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Tas., where employment rose by 1.8%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Geeveston-Dover's employment mix indicates local growth of 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Geeveston - Dover SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $44,289 and an average level of $53,624. This is lower than the national average, which was $49,689 for median and $59,358 for average in Regional Tas. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $49,139 (median) and $59,496 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Geeveston - Dover fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 29.6% of the community (1,315 individuals) earns within the $400 - 799 bracket, contrasting with the broader area where the leading bracket is $1,500 - 2,999 at 28.5%. Housing costs are modest, with 88.0% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 9th percentile nationally.

Geeveston - Dover is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Geeveston - Dover, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.6% houses and 2.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Tas.'s 89.9% houses and 10.1% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Geeveston - Dover was 50.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,083, while the median weekly rent figure was $280. Nationally, Geeveston - Dover's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Geeveston - Dover features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households at 3.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Tasmanian average of 2.3.

Geeveston - Dover faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 19.5%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (28.5%). A total of 24.2% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 10.6% in primary, 6.5% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.2% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Geeveston - Dover is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Geeveston-Dover faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 2,071 people), compared to 49.1% in Regional Tasmania and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.8% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Sixty-point-four percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 62.0% in Regional Tasmania. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,286 people), higher than the 24.9% in Regional Tasmania. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Geeveston - Dover is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Geeveston-Dover had a cultural diversity score below average, with 88.8% of its population being citizens, 83.8% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 39.3% of the population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, comprising 0.8% compared to Regional Tas's 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.8%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (8.6%). There were significant differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal was notably higher at 7.4%, New Zealand was at 0.8%, and Hungarian was at 0.3%.

Geeveston - Dover ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Geeveston - Dover is significantly higher than the Regional Tasmanian average at 50 years compared to 45, and is also well above the national norm of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented locally at 16.3%, compared to the Regional Tasmanian average, while those aged 15-24 are under-represented at 7.6%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the population proportion of those aged 75 to 84 has increased from 7.5% to 10.8%, while the 25 to 34 cohort has risen from 8.5% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 18.8% to 16.3%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 10.8% to 9.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Geeveston - Dover, with the strongest projected growth in the 75 to 84 cohort at 46%, adding 219 residents to reach 698. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 60% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 5 to 14 age groups are projected to decrease in number.