Geeveston - Dover
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Geeveston - Dover are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of August 2025, Geeveston-Dover's population is approximately 4,449 people. This figure reflects an increase of 398 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,051. The growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 4,383 in June 2024 and an additional 130 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 5.4 persons per square kilometer. Geeveston-Dover's 9.8% growth since the 2021 Census exceeded both the state average (4.5%) and the non-metro area, positioning it as a growth leader. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 48.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth contributing positively.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 and adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on the latest population numbers and projected demographic shifts, an above median growth is expected for national regional areas. By 2041, Geeveston-Dover's population is projected to increase by 615 persons, reflecting a total increase of 12.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Geeveston - Dover among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Geeveston-Dover has recorded approximately 35 residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 179 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, four residential properties have been approved so far. On average, 2.5 people per year have moved to the area for each new home constructed over these five financial years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $358,000. This financial year has seen $3.2 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of Tasmania, Geeveston-Dover records somewhat elevated construction activity, with 18.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New development consists of 88.0% standalone homes and 12.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 133 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Future projections show Geeveston-Dover adding 549 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Geeveston - Dover has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region. Key projects are Huon Link Road, Huonville ReImagined: Crafting a Future Huonville, Tasmanian Irrigation Schemes: Tranche 3, and Cethana Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Project. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.9%, Geeveston - Dover has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Geeveston-Dover has a skilled workforce with diverse sector representation and an unemployment rate of 3.9% as of June 2025. There are 1667 residents employed while the unemployment rate aligns with Rest of Tas.'s rate of 3.9%.

However, workforce participation lags at 48.8%, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 55.7%. Key industries include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share three times the regional level, but has lower representation in health care & social assistance at 11.2% versus the regional average of 16.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as Census working population vs resident population indicates.

Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, labour force decreased by 5.0% and employment fell by 6.0%, increasing unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of Tas.'s employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.6%, and unemployment fell marginally. State-level data to Sep-25 shows TAS employment grew by 0.77% year-on-year, adding 1170 jobs, with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, with state's employment growth outpacing national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Geeveston-Dover's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022, Geeveston - Dover had a median income of $42,691 and an average income of $50,114. These figures are below the national averages. In comparison, Rest of Tas.'s median income was $47,358 with an average of $57,384. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.94% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 would be approximately $47,788 (median) and $56,098 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Geeveston - Dover's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. The most common income bracket is $400 - $799, with 29.6% of residents (1,316 people). This differs from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 28.5%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.0% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Geeveston - Dover is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Geeveston - Dover, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.6% houses and 2.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s 96.8% houses and 3.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Geeveston - Dover stood at 50.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (34.9%) or rented (14.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Tas.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent was $280, compared to Non-Metro Tas.'s $290. Nationally, Geeveston - Dover's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 vs Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 at $280.

Geeveston - Dover features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 34.4% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Tas. average of 2.4.

Geeveston - Dover faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates at 19.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (28.5%).

A total of 24.2% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 10.6% in primary education, 6.5% in secondary education, and 2.5% in tertiary education. Geeveston-Dover's three schools have a combined enrollment of 325 students. The educational mix includes two primary schools and one K-12 school.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Geeveston - Dover is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Geeveston - Dover, with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 2055 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.8% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Tas. average of 62.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.9%, with approximately 1240 people falling into this age group, compared to Rest of Tas.'s 25.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Geeveston - Dover are above average, even outperforming the general population in certain health metrics.

Geeveston - Dover is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Geeveston-Dover had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.8% of its population being citizens, 83.8% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 39.3% of the population in Geeveston-Dover. The most significant overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which constituted 0.8% of the population compared to 0.7% across the rest of Tasmania.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.8%), Australian (29.4%), and Irish (8.6%). Notable deviations included an overrepresentation of Australian Aboriginal at 7.4%, New Zealanders at 0.8%, and Hungarians at 0.3% compared to regional averages of 5.7%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively.

Geeveston - Dover ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Geeveston - Dover is 50 years, significantly higher than Rest of Tas.'s average of 45 and well above the national norm of 38. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented at 17.1% locally compared to Rest of Tas.'s average, while the 15-24 year-olds are under-represented at 7.9%. The concentration of the 55-64 cohort is well above the national average of 11.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.5% to 10.4%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 8.5% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.8% to 17.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Geeveston - Dover. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 52%, adding 239 residents to reach 702. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 64% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 5-14 and 55-64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.