Blackmans Bay

Blackmans Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Blackmans Bay is around 7,935. This figure reflects an increase of 247 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,688. The latest estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and the resident population of 7,913, which was estimated following examination of the ABS ERP data release in June 2024. This results in a population density ratio of 1,277 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Blackmans Bay's growth rate of 3.2% since the census is close to the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, the suburb is expected to grow by 277 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 3.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackmans Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Blackmans Bay has seen approximately 27 new homes approved annually, with a total of 139 homes approved between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, and one more in FY-26. On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per year for each new home over the past five financial years. This indicates a balanced supply and demand market supporting stable conditions.

The average construction value of new properties is $613,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Commercial approvals in FY-26 totalled $1.1 million, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Hobart, Blackmans Bay has 16.0% less new development per person and ranks in the 41st percentile nationally for new developments, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. Recent development consists solely of detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to space-seeking buyers.

The location has approximately 404 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Blackmans Bay will gain 238 residents by 2041, and current development patterns suggest new housing supply should meet demand readily, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Blackmans Bay has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 15thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact the local area. These are Illawarra Rise Estate, Blackmans Bay Primary School Redevelopment and Expansion, Blackmans Bay Central Masterplan Redevelopment, and Kings Quarter (Kingston Park Masterplan). The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Blackmans Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Blackmans Bay has a well-educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 4141 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation in Blackmans Bay is similar to Greater Hobart's at 61.6%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and public administration & safety. The area shows strong specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Retail trade has limited presence with 7.9% employment compared to the regional average of 9.6%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending Jun-25, Blackmans Bay's labour force decreased by 1.4% and employment decreased by 1.5%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 2.2%. By comparison, Greater Hobart recorded an employment decline of 1.5%, labour force decline of 1.6%, with a fall in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blackmans Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Blackmans Bay's median income among taxpayers was $52,629 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $67,464 during the same period. These figures compare to Greater Hobart's median and average incomes of $51,272 and $63,777 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Blackmans Bay's median income will be approximately $59,908 and the average income around $76,794, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 13.83% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Blackmans Bay cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The data shows that 34.1% of the population (2,705 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range. This pattern is similar to the region where 32.2% occupy this income range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Blackmans Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blackmans Bay, as per the latest Census in 2016, dwelling structures consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This was similar to Hobart metro's figures of 92.5% houses and 7.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackmans Bay stood at 42.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.7% and rented dwellings at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,655, higher than Hobart metro's average of $1,647. Median weekly rent in Blackmans Bay was $400, compared to Hobart metro's $385. Nationally, Blackmans Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,655 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Blackmans Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.2% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.8%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Hobart average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Blackmans Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Blackmans Bay is notably high, with 37.5% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications, compared to 25.5% in Tasmania and 30.4% nationally as of the latest available data. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.2%) and graduate diplomas (4.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15 years and over holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas constitute 10.8% while certificates make up 19.6%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education. Blackmans Bay Primary School and Illawarra Primary School serve the area, collectively enrolling 673 students as of recent data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA score of 1052. Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. There are approximately 8.5 school places per 100 residents, lower than the regional average of 16.5, indicating some students may attend schools outside Blackmans Bay.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackmans Bay has 42 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 108 different routes that together facilitate 9,527 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in the area is considered good, with residents on average being located 248 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 1,361 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 226 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blackmans Bay is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Blackmans Bay faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population of about 4,276 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.9% and 9.4% of residents respectively. About 66.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 66.9% across Greater Hobart. As of June 30, 2018, 23.6% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,872 people), higher than the 20.8% in Greater Hobart. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Blackmans Bay was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackmans Bay, as per the census conducted on June 28th, 2016, exhibited above-average cultural diversity with 21.5% of its population born overseas and 11.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Blackmans Bay, comprising 44.3% of the population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Hobart, making up 0.2% of Blackmans Bay's population.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (8.9%). Other ethnic groups showed notable differences: Dutch were slightly overrepresented at 3.0%, South African at 0.9%, and Korean at 0.5%.

Blackmans Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Blackmans Bay has a median age of 42, which is slightly higher than Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and notably higher than the national average of 38. The age group of 65-74 years old makes up 13.3% of Blackmans Bay's population, outnumbering Greater Hobart's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 age group comprises only 10.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 7.9%, while the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Blackmans Bay's age profile. Notably, the 45 to 54 age group is expected to grow by 41%, adding 416 people and reaching a total of 1,432 from its current figure of 1,015. However, population declines are anticipated for both the 65 to 74 and the 0 to 4 age groups.