Blackmans Bay

Population growth drivers in Blackmans Bay are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Blackmans Bay is around 7,979, reflecting a growth of 291 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.8% rise from the previous census figure of 7,688 residents. The current population estimate of 7,960 by AreaSearch is based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 97 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,284 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 3.8% since the census is comparable to its SA4 region's growth of 3.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Blackmans Bay.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are adopted and adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future population projections indicate lower quartile growth for statistical areas across the nation, with Blackmans Bay expected to grow by 292 persons to reach 8,271 by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 3.4% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackmans Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Blackmans Bay shows approximately 26 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 132 homes were approved, with an additional 6 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per year per new home over the past five financial years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions.

The average construction value of new properties is $613,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment. This financial year has seen $311,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Hobart, Blackmans Bay has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 45th percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. Recent development has been exclusively detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 375 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts indicate Blackmans Bay will gain 273 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Blackmans Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may affect the area: Illawarra Rise Estate, Blackmans Bay Primary School Redevelopment and Expansion, Blackmans Bay Central Masterplan Redevelopment, and Kings Quarter (Kingston Park Masterplan). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Blackmans Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Blackmans Bay has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors being well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.2% in the past year. As of December 2025, there were 4,188 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 1.8%, which is below Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation was on par with Greater Hobart at 63.7%. According to Census responses, only 12.1% of residents worked from home. The key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and public administration & safety. There was particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

In contrast, retail trade employed only 7.9% of local workers compared to Greater Hobart's 9.6%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force also rose by 0.2%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. This contrasted with Greater Hobart where employment rose by 0.1%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blackmans Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Blackmans Bay had median taxpayer income of $52,629 and average income of $67,464 in financial year 2023. These figures were close to Greater Hobart's median income of $54,577 and average income of $65,190 for the same period. By March 2026, estimated median income was approximately $58,392 and average income was $74,851, based on a 10.95% increase from financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 showed Blackmans Bay incomes clustered around the 59th percentile nationally. The majority of residents (34.1%, or 2,720 people) fell into the $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket, similar to the regional percentage of 32.2%. After housing costs, Blackmans Bay residents retained 87.6% of their income, indicating strong purchasing power. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Blackmans Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blackmans Bay, as per the latest Census, 92.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.1% being semi-detached homes, apartments or other types. This compares to Hobart metro's 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackmans Bay stood at 42.5%, with mortgaged properties at 35.7% and rented ones at 21.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,655, higher than Hobart metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Blackmans Bay was $400, compared to $350 in Hobart metro. Nationally, Blackmans Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,655 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Blackmans Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.2% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.8%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Hobart average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Blackmans Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Blackmans Bay is notable with 37.5% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 25.5% in Tasmania (TAS) and 30.4% nationally. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.2% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (19.6%). Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (10.2%), secondary (7.7%), and tertiary (4.9%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackmans Bay has 42 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 114 different routes that together facilitate 9,258 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as good, with residents on average located 248 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to the area's predominantly residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 89% of residents, while buses are used by 8%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.6, which exceeds the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 12.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,322 trips per day, equating to approximately 220 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Blackmans Bay is notably higher than the national average with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Blackmans Bay shows superior health outcomes according to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are standard across both young and old age groups, with private health cover at approximately 54% (~4,300 people), compared to Greater Hobart's 51.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.9%) and mental health issues (9.4%). 66.0% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Hobart's 65.5%. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are typical. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.3% (1,938 people), compared to Greater Hobart's 20.0%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Blackmans Bay records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackmans Bay, surveyed in August 2016, exhibited above-average cultural diversity with 21.5% of its population born overseas and 11.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 44.3% of Blackmans Bay's population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across Greater Hobart.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (8.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Dutch were overrepresented at 3.0% (vs regional 1.5%), South Australian at 0.9% (vs 0.2%), and Korean at 0.5% (vs 0.2%).

Blackmans Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Blackmans Bay's median age is 42, which exceeds Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 13.3% of Blackmans Bay's population, higher than Greater Hobart's percentage. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.9%, lower than Greater Hobart's figure. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 6.4% to 8.3%. Meanwhile, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 11.0% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Blackmans Bay's age profile. The 45-54 group is projected to grow by 43%, reaching 1,459 people from the current 1,021. However, population declines are expected for the 65-74 and 0-4 cohorts.