Blackmans Bay

Blackmans Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Blackmans Bay's population is estimated at around 7,998 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 310 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,688 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,910 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 95 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,287 persons per square kilometer. Blackmans Bay's 4.0% growth since census positions it within 0.9 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.9%). Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth by age group in the years post-2032, the Tasmania State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking at population projections moving forward, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the suburb expected to grow by 275 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 2.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackmans Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Blackmans Bay has seen approximately 26 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 132 homes were approved, with an additional 2 so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.2 new residents arrive per year for each new home over the past five financial years, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market supporting stable conditions.

The average construction value of these properties is $613,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $311,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Hobart, Blackmans Bay has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 45th percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. Recent development has been exclusively detached houses, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a focus on family homes suited to space-seeking buyers.

The location has approximately 375 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. Population forecasts suggest Blackmans Bay will gain 173 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond projections.

Blackmans Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact the local area. These are Illawarra Rise Estate, Blackmans Bay Primary School Redevelopment and Expansion, Blackmans Bay Central Masterplan Redevelopment, and Kings Quarter (Kingston Park Masterplan).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Blackmans Bay ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Blackmans Bay has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors being well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.1% as of September 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In this month, 4,145 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Greater Hobart's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Blackmans Bay was on par with Greater Hobart's 63.8%. Census responses showed that only 12.1% of residents worked from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and public administration & safety. Blackmans Bay had a particularly strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Retail trade had limited presence with 7.9% employment compared to 9.6% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data, aggregated from broader statistical areas over a 12-month period, showed labour force decreasing by 0.7% combined with employment decreasing by 0.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In comparison, Greater Hobart recorded an employment decline of 0.7%, labour force decline of 0.9%, and unemployment falling by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Blackmans Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, were mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Blackmans Bay's employment mix suggested that local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Blackmans Bay has an average national income level according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data from financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Blackmans Bay is $52,629 and the average income stands at $67,464. For Greater Hobart, these figures are $54,577 and $65,190 respectively. Based on a 9.6% growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $57,681 (median) and $73,941 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Blackmans Bay's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. In Blackmans Bay, 34.1% of the population (2,727 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional pattern where 32.2% occupy this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Blackmans Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Blackmans Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Hobart metro's 85.3% houses and 14.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackmans Bay stood at 42.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (35.7%) or rented (21.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,655, higher than Hobart metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent was $400, compared to Hobart metro's $350. Nationally, Blackmans Bay's mortgage repayments were lower ($1,655 vs Australia's $1,863), while rents were higher ($400 vs Australia's $375).

Blackmans Bay has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.2% of all households, including 31.8% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.8%, with lone person households at 22.1% and group households making up 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Greater Hobart average of 2.4 people.

The educational profile of Blackmans Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Blackmans Bay, residents aged 15 and above have a higher proportion of university qualifications than the state or national averages. Specifically, 37.5% of residents hold such qualifications compared to 25.5% in Tasmania (TAS) and 30.4% across Australia. The area's educational attainment is notable for its diversity: bachelor degrees are most common at 22.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.2% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.4% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (19.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.2%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (4.9%).

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackmans Bay has 42 active public transport stops serving mixed bus routes. These stops handle 114 different routes, facilitating 9,258 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents located an average of 248 meters from the nearest stop. The area, predominantly residential, sees most commuters traveling outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%, while buses account for 8%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, only 12.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 1,322 trips daily, equating to roughly 220 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Blackmans Bay is notably higher than the national average with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Blackmans Bay shows superior health outcomes as evaluated by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are standard across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 54% of the total population (~4,310 people), compared to 51.7% in Greater Hobart. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.9%) and mental health issues (9.4%). 66.0% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Hobart's 65.5%. Health outcomes among working-age individuals are typical. Blackmans Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 24.5%, compared to Greater Hobart's 19.9%. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Blackmans Bay records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackmans Bay, surveyed in 2016, had a cultural diversity index above average with 21.5% of its population born overseas and 11.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity dominated religious affiliations, comprising 44.3%. Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to Greater Hobart's 0.1%.

Ancestry-wise, the top three groups were English (32.1%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (8.9%). Notable divergences existed in Dutch representation at 3.0% (regional average: 1.5%), South African at 0.9% (0.2%), and Korean at 0.5% (0.2%).

Blackmans Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Blackmans Bay's median age is 42, surpassing Greater Hobart's figure of 39 and the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 13.6%, higher than Greater Hobart, while the 25-34 cohort is 9.6%. Post-2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.4% to 8.2%, but the 25 to 34 group fell from 11.0% to 9.6% and the 5 to 14 group decreased from 13.0% to 11.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Blackmans Bay's age profile, with the 45-54 group projected to grow by 42%, reaching 1,433 from 1,007. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 0 to 4 and 65 to 74 cohorts.