Warana

Population growth drivers in Warana are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Warana's estimated population is around 4,385. This reflects an increase of 554 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,831. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,175 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 65 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,496 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warana's growth rate of 14.5% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (8.8%) and the national average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data for areas not covered by this data and years post-2032. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort when utilised. Anticipating future population dynamics, a significant increase is forecast for the top quartile of regional areas across the nation, with Warana expected to expand by 1,216 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 20.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warana recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warana averaged approximately 46 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 234 homes. As of FY-26 to date, six approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrived per new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand. However, this figure has increased to 6.2 people per dwelling over the past two years, suggesting growing demand and tightening supply. The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $896,000, reflecting a focus on premium properties by developers.

This financial year, Warana has seen $6.0 million in commercial development approvals, indicating its residential character. Compared to the Rest of Qld, Warana has 19.0% less new development per person but ranks at the 43rd percentile nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while demand for established homes strengthens. Despite this, developer interest in Warana is robust, with recent construction comprising 14.0% detached houses and 86.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. Currently, the area has around 386 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. Future projections estimate Warana to add 914 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Warana has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Oceanside Birtinya, Kawana Health Precinct Expansion, BHC Affordable Housing Birtinya, and Exe & Wye Birtinya. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Warana well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Warana has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of September 2025, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of this date, 2,044 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 1.9% lower than Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation was somewhat below standard at 56.9%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Warana shows strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Warana's workforce compared to 4.5% in Rest of Qld. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. During the year to September 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.6% while employment declined by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points in Warana. In contrast, Rest of Qld experienced employment growth of 1.7% and labour force growth of 2.1%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows QLD employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%, broadly in line with the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warana's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Warana had a median taxpayer income of $46,441 and an average of $66,802. This is below the national average. Rest of Qld's median was $53,146 with an average of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Warana as of September 2025 would be approximately $51,043 (median) and $73,422 (average). Census data ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Warana between the 33rd and 36th percentiles. The income distribution shows that 28.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 - $2,999. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile. Warana's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warana is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warana's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 70.6% houses and 29.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Non-Metro Qld's distribution of 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warana was 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,950. The median weekly rent figure in Warana was $420, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $450. Nationally, Warana's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Warana features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 69.3% of all households, consisting of 29.5% couples with children, 25.9% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.7%, with lone person households at 26.2% and group households comprising 4.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which matches the average for the Rest of Qld.

Warana shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Warana's residents aged 15+ have a university degree qualification rate of 24.8%, compared to Australia's 30.4%. This indicates potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.9% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (29.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.9%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (4.5%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warana has eight active public transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with five individual routes in total. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 971.

Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 226 meters from the nearest stop. The service frequency averages 138 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 121 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warana is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Warana faces significant health challenges with higher-than-average prevalence of common conditions, particularly among older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~2,353 people) have private health cover, slightly above the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.1%) and mental health issues (8.2%). Conversely, 65.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 66.2% in Rest of Qld. Warana has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.8% (999 people). Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Warana ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warana's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.0% of its population being citizens, 82.4% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Warana, comprising 44.9% of people. However, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.0% compared to 0.1% across Rest of Qld.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31.1%), Australian (27.6%), and Irish (10.4%). Notably, Scottish (9.4%) and Dutch (1.8%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 8.8% and 1.3%, respectively. New Zealand was slightly underrepresented at 1.0%.

Warana's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warana was close to the Rest of Queensland's average of 41 years, both figures being well above the Australian median of 38 years as of a certain date. The 85+ cohort constituted 5.8% of Warana's population, notably higher than the Rest of Queensland average, while individuals aged 25-34 made up only 10.4%, indicating an under-representation compared to the regional norm. Between the 2021 Census and a later date, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 grew from 9.6% to 12.1%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 5-14 decreased from 13.1% to 11.9% over this period. Population forecasts for Warana in the year 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts. The 85+ age group is projected to expand by 212 people, an increase of 84%, from 254 to 467 residents. Meanwhile, the 15-24 age cohort is expected to grow more modestly, adding only 16 individuals over this period.