Novar Gardens

An assessment of population growth drivers in Novar Gardens reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Novar Gardens statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 2,791 people. This reflects an increase of 283 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,508 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,630 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional three validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,585 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Novar Gardens (SA2) experienced an 11.3% growth since the 2021 census, exceeding the state's growth rate of 8.7%, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are adopted with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Novar Gardens (SA2) is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of national statistical areas, with an expected growth of 712 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 20.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Novar Gardens when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Novar Gardens has seen around 15 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 77 homes between FY-20 and FY-24. So far in FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed over these years accommodates approximately 1.9 new residents.

The supply of new properties appears to balance demand, maintaining stable market dynamics. The average construction cost value for new properties is around $379,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This financial year has seen $8.8 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting Novar Gardens' primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Novar Gardens maintains similar development levels per person, consistent with broader market balance. However, recent periods have shown increased development activity.

The current trend favors denser development, with 63% attached dwellings compared to the existing housing pattern of 80% houses. This shift suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 119 people per dwelling approval, Novar Gardens exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Novar Gardens is projected to add approximately 563 residents by 2041. Construction pace appears reasonable in line with projected growth, although buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Novar Gardens has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to affect the area: Tram Grade Separation at Marion Road and Cross Road, Plympton, and the River Torrens to Darlington (T2D) Project, Morphettville Racecourse Redevelopment, along with other Tram Grade Separation Projects are also notable initiatives.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Novar Gardens performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Novar Gardens has a skilled workforce with significant representation from essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 1.6%, lower than Greater Adelaide's 3.9%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.8% based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,340 residents are employed with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, below Greater Adelaide's rate. Workforce participation is lower at 51.4%. Employment concentrations include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Finance & insurance shows notable concentration with levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing representation is lower at 5.6% versus the regional average of 7.0%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. In the past year, employment increased by 5.8% alongside labour force growth of 5.6%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. This compares to Greater Adelaide's employment growth of 3.0% and labour force expansion of 2.9%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows SA employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.0%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Novar Gardens. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with differing rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Novar Gardens's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Novar Gardens had a median taxpayer income of $41,809 and an average income of $49,864. These figures are lower than the national averages of $54,808 and $66,852 respectively in Greater Adelaide. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,488 (median) and $54,252 (average), based on an 8.8% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows Novar Gardens' household income ranks at the 33rd percentile ($1,468 weekly) and personal income at the 15th percentile. Income analysis reveals that 26.5% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (739 individuals), mirroring the region where 31.8% occupy this bracket. Income distribution shows polarization with 31.2% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 22.7% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). After housing expenses, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Novar Gardens is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Novar Gardens' dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). Adelaide metro had 63.9% houses and 36.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Novar Gardens was 39.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.8% and rented at 27.4%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $2,060, higher than Adelaide metro's $1,745. Median weekly rent was $165, lower than Adelaide metro's $310. Nationally, Novar Gardens' median mortgage repayment exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while median rent was below the national figure of $375.

Novar Gardens has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.3% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 33.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.7%, with lone person households at 27.0% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Novar Gardens exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Novar Gardens trail regional benchmarks, with 27.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 35.4% in the SA3 area as of 2021 data. Bachelor degrees lead at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.3%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.2% and certificates at 19.2%. Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest statistics.

This includes 13.2% in secondary education, 8.6% in primary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Novar Gardens has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that together facilitate 1,959 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Novar Gardens is rated as excellent, with residents usually located just 195 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 279 daily trips across all routes, which amounts to about 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Novar Gardens is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Novar Gardens faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,305 people), compared to 52.3% across Greater Adelaide, and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.3 and 8.5% of residents respectively, while 64.5% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.9% across Greater Adelaide.

There are 25.0% of residents aged 65 and over (697 people), which is higher than the 17.6% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors in Novar Gardens perform even better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Novar Gardens was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Novar Gardens showed above-average cultural diversity, with 21.8% of its population born overseas and 17.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Novar Gardens as of 2021, comprising 50.1% of people. Judaism, however, showed significant overrepresentation compared to Greater Adelaide, with 0.4% versus 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (28.1%), Australian (24.8%), and Other (7.8%). Notable divergences included German (6.2% vs regional average of 4.6%), Serbian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Greek (2.5% vs 6.1%).

Novar Gardens hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Novar Gardens has a median age of 45, which is higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and also exceeds the national average of 38. The age group of 75-84 years shows strong representation in Novar Gardens at 10.2%, compared to Greater Adelaide. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age cohort is less prevalent at 9.5%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 7.9% to 9.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 age group increased from 10.4% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 85+ age cohort has declined from 3.1% to 2.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Novar Gardens' age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 36%, adding 101 residents to reach a total of 386.