Novar Gardens

An assessment of population growth drivers in Novar Gardens reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Novar Gardens is around 2,627. This figure reflects an increase of 119 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,508. AreaSearch validated this estimate based on the resident population of 2,616 inferred from the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and three additional new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 1,492 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Novar Gardens has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections are used with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, significant population growth is forecast for Novar Gardens in the top quartile of national statistical areas. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 715 persons, reflecting an overall gain of 27.8% over the 17 years based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Novar Gardens recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Novar Gardens had approximately 14 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 70 homes. As of FY26, there have been 4 approvals recorded. On average, each dwelling added about 2.1 new residents per year between FY21 and FY25.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings was $379,000. Compared to Greater Adelaide, Novar Gardens had 17.0% lower construction activity per person but ranked in the 63rd percentile nationally among assessed areas. New development consisted of 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% attached dwellings. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 80.0% houses) indicates decreasing developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. Novar Gardens had around 228 people per approval, reflecting a low-density area.

Population forecasts estimate an increase of 730 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Novar Gardens has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly impact local performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch may affect the area. Key projects are Tram Grade Separation Projects at Marion Road and Cross Road, Plympton; River Torrens to Darlington (T2D) Project; Morphettville/Glengowrie Horse Related Activities Code Amendment.

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Employment conditions in Novar Gardens demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Novar Gardens has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 1.8%, lower than the Greater Adelaide average of 4.0%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.3%. As of June 2025, 1,309 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.2% below Greater Adelaide's rate. Workforce participation in Novar Gardens lags behind Greater Adelaide at 51.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Finance & insurance shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level, while manufacturing has lower representation at 5.6% versus the regional average of 7.0%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-norm local employment opportunities. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, and labour force increased by 4.4%, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Adelaide recorded employment growth of 2.1% with marginal unemployment rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Novar Gardens' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Novar Gardens had a median income of $41,809 and an average income of $49,864 among taxpayers. These figures are lower than the national averages of $52,592 and $64,886 in Greater Adelaide respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.83% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median income would be approximately $47,173 as of September 2025, with average income estimated at $56,262 during the same period. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 33rd percentile ($1,468 weekly), while personal income sits at the 15th percentile. Income analysis shows that 26.5% of Novar Gardens' population (696 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 31.8% occupy this bracket. The suburb exhibits income diversity with 31.2% earning under $800 weekly and 22.7% exceeding $3,000, indicating a mixed socioeconomic profile. After housing expenses, 86.3% of income remains for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Novar Gardens is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Novar Gardens' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 79.8% houses and 20.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Adelaide metro had 63.9% houses and 36.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Novar Gardens was at 39.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.8% and rented ones at 27.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,060, higher than Adelaide metro's average of $1,745. The median weekly rent in Novar Gardens was $165, lower than Adelaide metro's $310. Nationally, Novar Gardens' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,060 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially lower at $165 versus the national figure of $375.

Novar Gardens has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 71.3% of all households, including 29.0% couples with children, 33.4% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 28.7%, with lone person households at 27.0% and group households at 2.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Adelaide average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Novar Gardens exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Novar Gardens trail regional benchmarks; 27.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to 35.4% in the SA3 area. This gap indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (19.2%).

Educational participation is high; 31.9% of residents are currently enrolled in formal education, including secondary (13.2%), primary (8.6%), and tertiary (5.1%) levels. Educational provision includes Immanuel College and Immanuel Primary School, serving a total of 1,717 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1116). Educational provision follows conventional lines, with one primary and one secondary institution. Novar Gardens functions as an education hub with 65.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 13.8, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Novar Gardens has 15 active public transport stops. These stops are used by buses only. There are 10 different bus routes serving these stops, providing a total of 934 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Novar Gardens is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 195 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 133 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 62 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Novar Gardens is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Novar Gardens faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~1,228 people), compared to 51.8% across Greater Adelaide and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 9.3 and 8.5% of residents respectively, while 64.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.9% across Greater Adelaide.

As of 2016, the area has 24.8% of residents aged 65 and over (651 people), which is higher than the 17.6% in Greater Adelaide. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Novar Gardens was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Novar Gardens' cultural diversity is above average, with 21.8% born overseas and 17.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity dominates Novar Gardens, comprising 50.1%, but Judaism is overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Adelaide's 0.1%. Top ancestry groups are English (28.1%), Australian (24.8%), and Other (7.8%).

Notable divergences include German (6.2% vs regional 4.6%), Serbian (0.6% vs 0.5%), and Greek (2.5% vs 6.1%).

Novar Gardens hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Novar Gardens has a median age of 45, which is higher than Greater Adelaide's average of 39 and exceeds the national average of 38. The percentage of residents aged 75-84 is 10.1%, significantly higher than in Greater Adelaide, while those aged 25-34 make up 9.6%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 25-34 has increased from 7.9% to 9.6%, and the 35-44 age group has risen from 10.4% to 11.5%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 85 and above has decreased from 3.1% to 2.3%. Demographic projections indicate that Novar Gardens' age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the strongest growth expected in the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to grow by 42%, adding 120 residents and reaching a total of 409.