Mulgoa

Population growth drivers in Mulgoa are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Mulgoa is estimated at around 2,155, reflecting an increase of 111 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 5.4% increase from the previous count of 2,044 residents. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,099 following their examination of the ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 39 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Mulgoa has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 4.2%, outpacing the SA3 area. Natural growth contributed approximately 40.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Mulgoa in the top 10 percent of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 2,717 persons, reflecting a gain of 130.0% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mulgoa according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Mulgoa shows around 5 new homes approved each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 25 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 12.6 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years.

Demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices. New properties are constructed at an average value of $572,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $16.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. However, compared to Greater Sydney and national averages, Mulgoa has significantly less development activity, which is 60.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. New building activity in Mulgoa shows 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing.

This represents an expanding range of medium-density options, creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. The estimated count of 738 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Mulgoa will gain 2,802 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mulgoa has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Everdene (Glenmore Park Stage 3), Everdene, Highland Views, and M12 Motorway. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Mulgoa places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Mulgoa has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably prominent. The unemployment rate in Mulgoa is 1.2%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,278 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.0% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Mulgoa stands at 76.6%, exceeding Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Census responses indicate that 34.8% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Mulgoa has a high employment specialization in construction, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 6.4% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.6%, alongside a 3.4% employment decline, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point fall in unemployment rate. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mulgoa's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 17 May 2023 for financial year 2023, the suburb of Mulgoa had a median income among taxpayers of $57,305 and an average income of $77,361. Nationally, these figures are very high compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Mulgoa would be approximately $62,382 (median) and $84,215 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household incomes in Mulgoa rank exceptionally at the 91st percentile ($2,533 weekly). Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (663 residents), which is similar to the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. A substantial proportion of high earners, at 43.2%, indicates strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mulgoa is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mulgoa's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.5% houses and 0.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mulgoa stood at 46.5%, with mortgaged properties at 40.2% and rented ones at 13.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,750, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Mulgoa was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Mulgoa's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mulgoa features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.3% of all households, including 48.9% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 7.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 13.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Mulgoa aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 26.5%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 10.0% in secondary, and 3.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mulgoa has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate 635 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 336 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Mulgoa being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages 2.6 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 34.8% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mulgoa's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Mulgoa demonstrates excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 57%, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most common conditions are arthritis (6.9%) and asthma (6.0%). 74.2% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Under-65s have better-than-average health outcomes. Mulgoa has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.7% (402 people) compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Mulgoa ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mulgoa had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.3% born in Australia, 93.7% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 77.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (26.6%), English (25.7%), and Maltese (7.4%).

These percentages were higher than the regional averages of 17.8%, 19.0%, and 1.0% respectively. There were notable differences in other ethnic groups: Dutch at 2.2% compared to 0.7%, Croatian at 1.4% versus 0.7%, and Lebanese at 2.3% against 2.6%.

Mulgoa's median age exceeds the national pattern

Mulgoa's median age is 41 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and Australia's median of 38. The 45-54 age group makes up 14.6% of Mulgoa's population, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 cohort represents 8.2%, lower than the Greater Sydney average. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.7% to 6.8% of Mulgoa's population. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 9.0% to 8.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Mulgoa's age profile, with the 45-54 cohort expected to grow by 163%, adding 511 residents to reach a total of 826.