Mulgoa

Population growth drivers in Mulgoa are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Mulgoa is around 2,140, reflecting a 96-person increase since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 4.7% rise from the previous figure of 2,044 people. The change was inferred by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and the validation of 18 new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to approximately 39 persons per square kilometer. Mulgoa's growth rate of 4.7% since the census is within 1.3 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 6.0%. The primary driver of this growth was natural increase, contributing about 40.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all migration factors including interstate and overseas migration also contributed positively to growth. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted for the suburb of Mulgoa over this period. By 2041, it is expected that the population will grow by 2,609 persons, reflecting a gain of 120.1% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Mulgoa, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Mulgoa shows around 4 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 24 homes were approved, with an additional 2 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 1.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years. However, recent data indicates this has increased to 10.5 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, reflecting Mulgoa's growing popularity and potential supply constraints.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $572,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This year has seen $16.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mulgoa shows substantially reduced construction activity (61.0% below regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 100.0% houses. The estimated population density is 1045 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Mulgoa is expected to grow by 2,570 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Looking ahead, Mulgoa is expected to grow by 2,570 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Mulgoa has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the area. Notable ones include Everdene (Glenmore Park Stage 3), Everdene, Highland Views, and M12 Motorway. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mulgoa performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mulgoa has a skilled workforce with the construction sector being notably represented. The unemployment rate in Mulgoa was 1.4% as of December 2025, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, there were 1,182 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 2.8% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation in Mulgoa was similar to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses showed that 34.8% of residents worked from home. Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Construction employment levels were at 2.6 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services had lower representation at 6.4% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Many Mulgoa residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 6.0% and employment decreased by 6.0%, leaving unemployment broadly flat in Mulgoa. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment grew by 2.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mulgoa's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.3% over five years and 12.7% over ten years, using a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Mulgoa had a median taxpayer income of $57,305 and an average income of $77,361. Nationally, the median was $60,817 and the average was $83,003. By March 2026, estimates suggest Mulgoa's median income will be approximately $63,219 and average income $85,345 based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%. In 2021 Census data, Mulgoa ranked at the 91st percentile for household incomes ($2,533 weekly). The income band of $1,500 - $2,999 includes 30.8% of residents (659 individuals), similar to Greater Sydney's 30.9%. Notably, 43.2% earn over $3,000 weekly, indicating affluence and supporting premium services. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Mulgoa's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mulgoa is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mulgoa's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 99.5% houses and 0.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mulgoa stood at 46.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.2% and rented ones at 13.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,750, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Mulgoa was $450, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Mulgoa's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mulgoa features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.3% of all households, including 48.9% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 7.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 13.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.3 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational attainment in Mulgoa aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.3%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 15.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are common, with 37.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (26.5%). Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down as follows: primary education (10.1%), secondary education (10.0%), and tertiary education (3.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mulgoa has 37 active public transport stops, all providing bus services. These stops are served by 27 different routes, offering a total of 635 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is considered good, with residents typically living 336 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 2.6 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 34.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 90 trips are made daily, equating to about 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mulgoa's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Mulgoa's health outcomes show excellent results according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (around 1,230 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.9 and 6.0% of residents respectively. 74.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Under-65s have better-than-average health outcomes. Mulgoa has 19.3% of residents aged 65 and over (413 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Mulgoa ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mulgoa had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 84.3% of its population born in Australia, 93.7% being citizens, and 88.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Mulgoa, comprising 77.2% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.6%), English (25.7%), and Maltese (7.4%).

These percentages were substantially higher than the regional averages of 17.8%, 19.0%, and 1.0% respectively. Notably, Dutch (2.2%) and Croatian (1.4%) ancestry was overrepresented in Mulgoa compared to the regional averages of 0.7%. Lebanese ancestry was also notable at 2.3%, slightly higher than the regional average of 2.6%.

Mulgoa's median age exceeds the national pattern

Mulgoa's median age is 41 years, which is notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mulgoa has a significantly higher proportion of the 45-54 age group (15.0% locally) but a lower percentage of 25-34 year-olds (8.3%). According to the 2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group increased from 5.7% to 6.9%, while the 25-34 cohort decreased from 9.0% to 8.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Mulgoa's age profile, with the strongest growth expected for the 45-54 cohort, which is projected to grow by 151%, adding 485 residents to reach a total of 806.