Middle Park (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Middle Park reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Middle Park (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 4,236 people. This reflects a growth of 236 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,000 people in the area. The current resident population estimate of 4,221 is based on AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), with an additional 3 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this figure. This results in a population density ratio of 4,983 persons per square kilometer, placing Middle Park (Vic.) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Middle Park (Vic.) has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration drove population growth in the area, contributing approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Middle Park (Vic.) are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, significant population increase is forecasted for Middle Park (Vic.) within the top quartile of national statistical areas. By 2041, the area is expected to gain an additional 1,508 persons, reflecting a total increase of 37.8% over the 17-year period from 2024 to 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Middle Park when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Middle Park shows an average of approximately 41 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 209 homes were approved, with none so far in FY-26.

On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per new home over the past five financial years. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, offering more options to buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $428,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. Comparatively, Middle Park has 13.0% lower construction activity per person when measured against Greater Melbourne.

Despite this, it ranks among the top 95th percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, building activity has increased in recent years. All new construction in Middle Park consists of medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The area has approximately 44 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate that Middle Park will add around 1,599 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Building activity is currently keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition among buyers can be expected as the population grows.

Middle Park has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting this region: Shrine to Sea Boulevard Upgrade, The Carter Building, Victoriana, and Bayview On The Park Build-To-Rent Project are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Middle Park demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Middle Park has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 2.7% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.3%.

As of September 2025, 2,377 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% below Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, and workforce participation at 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical (2 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and finance & insurance. Retail trade has lower representation at 6.0% versus the regional average of 9.8%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, labour force by 4.5%, raising unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Middle Park's employment mix suggests local growth should be 7.4% over five years and 14.8% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Middle Park suburb has top percentile national income. Median assessed income is $78,690, average income stands at $155,964. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Middle Park would be approximately $85,182 (median) and $168,831 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows Middle Park ranks highly nationally, between 95th and 97th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution in Middle Park is led by the $4000+ category at 37.4% (1,584 people), contrasting with surrounding region's leading bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 at 32.8%. Economic strength is evident through 48.5% of households earning weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.0% of income, with residents ranking in the 95th percentile for disposable income. Middle Park's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Middle Park displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Middle Park's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 14.9% houses and 85.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 8.7% houses and 91.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Middle Park stood at 42.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.1% and rented ones at 32.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,467, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,170. Median weekly rent in Middle Park was $602, compared to Melbourne metro's $420. Nationally, Middle Park's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Middle Park features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households are prevalent, accounting for 67.6% of all households. They consist of 30.9% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.4%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households making up 2.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.9.

Educational achievement in Middle Park places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Middle Park has a notably high educational attainment, with 56.6% of its residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, significantly surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. This is largely driven by bachelor degrees, which are held by 34.1% of the population in this area. Postgraduate qualifications follow at 17.0%, with graduate diplomas at 5.5%. Vocational pathways account for 16.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 9.0% and certificates 7.2%.

Educational participation is notably high in Middle Park, with 28.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.5% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 6.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Middle Park has 23 active public transport stops, consisting of lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by two routes that together facilitate 2,039 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 118 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility.

Daily service frequency averages 291 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 88 weekly trips per individual stop.

Middle Park's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Middle Park's health outcomes show exceptional results with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 88% of its total population (3,727 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.9%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.9% and 6.6% of residents respectively. 73.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 73.3%. Middle Park has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.3% (902 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 14.3%. Health outcomes among seniors in Middle Park are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Middle Park was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Middle Park's population showed high cultural diversity, with 25.5% born overseas and 18.1% speaking languages other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Middle Park, accounting for 48.1%. Notably, Judaism had a higher representation in Middle Park at 1.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 3.7%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.0%), Australian (19.6%), and Irish (12.0%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Greeks were more prevalent at 6.6% versus 3.2% regionally, French remained the same at 1.1%, and Welsh were slightly higher at 0.8% compared to 0.6%.

Middle Park hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Middle Park is 45 years, significantly higher than Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Middle Park has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (8.8%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 9.1% to 11.4%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 7.8% to 8.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 12.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Middle Park's age structure. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 65%, reaching 1,107 people from 669. Meanwhile, the 0-4 age group will grow by a modest 7%, adding 11 people.