Evans Head

An assessment of population growth drivers in Evans Head reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Evans Head's population is estimated at around 3,190, reflecting an increase of 283 people since the 2021 Census. The population was reported as 2,907 in 2021. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,009 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 166 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 143 persons per square kilometer. Evans Head's growth of 9.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 3.3%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections moving forward, Evans Head is expected to grow by 485 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Evans Head recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis shows Evans Head averaged approximately 8 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 41 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. On average, about 5.7 new residents arrive per year for each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This has led to demand significantly exceeding supply, typically resulting in price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction value of new homes is around $478,000. In FY-26, there have been $4.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Evans Head has markedly lower building activity, 53.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, it is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New development consists of 86.0% detached dwellings and 14.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This preference for detached housing is more pronounced than current patterns suggest (55.0% at Census), indicating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 434, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Evans Head will gain approximately 364 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Evans Head has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects are Woodburn Street Mixed-use Precinct, Evans Head (17 McDonald Place), Queensland Regional Road Network Safety Improvements, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, and Queensland New South Wales Interconnector.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 2.8%, Evans Head has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Evans Head has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, 1,234 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% lower than Rest of NSW's 3.7%. Workforce participation in Evans Head is 46.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety employs only 4.3% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 7.5%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.4%, with employment decreasing by 3.2%, causing unemployment to fall by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and a rise in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Evans Head. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Evans Head's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that in Evans Head, median income is $42,940 and average income is $51,229. This is below the national averages of $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average) for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimated incomes in Evans Head would be approximately $48,355 (median) and $57,689 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Evans Head fall between the 6th and 17th percentiles nationally. In Evans Head, 28.4% of locals (905 people) have incomes between $800 - 1,499, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 category dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Evans Head, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Evans Head displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Evans Head's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.7% houses and 45.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 75.1% houses and 24.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Evans Head was at 43.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.3% and rented ones at 38.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,642, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,980. The median weekly rent figure in Evans Head was $321, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $450. Nationally, Evans Head's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,642 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Evans Head features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.4% of all households, including 18.0% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 10.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for 37.6%, with lone person households at 35.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Evans Head fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.7%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 29.8%. Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.1% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

The area has two schools serving 617 students - Evans River Community School and St Joseph's Primary School. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes one primary and one K-12 school, with a capacity of 19.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.2, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 75 active stops operating in Evans Head, with a mix of buses. These are serviced by 15 routes, providing 194 weekly passenger trips. Accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically 104 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 27 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Evans Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Evans Head faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 47%, covering around 1,507 people, compared to the Rest of NSW's 52.3%. Nationally, this figure is 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.5%) and mental health issues (9.2%). Conversely, 58.3% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of NSW's 68.0%. Evans Head has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.6%, with around 1,008 people falling into this category compared to Rest of NSW's 23.6%. Despite these figures, health outcomes among seniors in the area perform better than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Evans Head placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Evans Head, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity: 90.0% were citizens, 92.5% born in Australia, and 97.2% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion (57.1%), compared to 42.2% regionally. Top ancestral groups were Australian (31.5%, regional average 26.0%), English (30.7%), and Irish (10.5%).

Notable differences included higher Scottish representation (9.6% vs 9.0%) and Hungarian (0.3% vs 0.2%), while Australian Aboriginal was also notably high at 4.1% (vs regional 2.2%).

Evans Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Evans Head is 52 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the percentage of residents aged 65-74 in Evans Head is notably higher at 17.3%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 8.4%. This concentration of residents aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 75 to 84 has grown from 8.4% to 10.0%, while the percentage of those aged 5 to 14 has declined from 10.5% to 9.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Evans Head, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to grow by 37%, adding 118 residents to reach a total of 437. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 52% of population growth, underscoring trends towards an aging demographic. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.