Encounter Bay

Population growth drivers in Encounter Bay are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Encounter Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 6,229 people. This figure represents a growth of 924 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,305 people in the area. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,707 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,448 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Encounter Bay area's growth rate of 17.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (7.3%) and the SA4 region, making it a notable growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 86.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Encounter Bay area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections by age category are adopted, based on 2021 data and released in 2023 with adjustments made using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Looking ahead, population projections indicate an above median growth for national regional areas. The Encounter Bay area is expected to grow by 796 persons to the year 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 4.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Encounter Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Encounter Bay has experienced around 71 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 357 homes were approved, with a further 76 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 1.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years. However, this has eased to around 0.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating better supply availability.

Development projects have an average construction value of approximately $391,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26 alone, $16.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of SA, Encounter Bay has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area. This level is notably above average nationally, indicating strong developer confidence in the area.

New building activity comprises approximately 96% standalone homes and 4% attached dwellings, preserving the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 57 people per approval, Encounter Bay reflects a developing area. Future projections estimate Encounter Bay to add about 262 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels suggest housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Encounter Bay has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 33rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region: Best Life Canterbury Victor Harbor, Yilki Coastal Protection Stage 1b, Southern Fleurieu Health Service Redevelopment, and Oakford Estate. The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Encounter Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Encounter Bay's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of September 2025, lower than Rest of SA's 5.3%.

Workforce participation lagged at 31.6%, compared to Rest of SA's 54.1%. Dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food, with healthcare notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 3.1% versus 14.5% regionally. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population.

Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5%, labour force by 1.7%, raising unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. Rest of SA recorded employment growth of 0.3%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising by 1.9 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Encounter Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows that Encounter Bay's median income is $36,966 and average income is $47,228. This is lower than the national averages of $48,920 (median) and $58,933 (average). Comparing to Rest of SA, Encounter Bay's incomes are significantly lower. By September 2025, estimated median income in Encounter Bay would be approximately $40,219 and average income $51,384, based on an 8.8% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data from 2021 reveals that incomes in Encounter Bay fall between the 1st and 4th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income bracket in Encounter Bay is $400 - $799, with 35.1% of locals (2,186 people) falling within this range. This contrasts with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 27.5%. A significant proportion, 42.2%, of Encounter Bay residents earn less than $800 per week, suggesting limited household budgets. Despite modest housing costs that allow for 88.6% income retention, the total disposable income in Encounter Bay ranks at just the 4th percentile nationally.

Encounter Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Encounter Bay's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro SA's 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Encounter Bay stood at 63.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 18.8% and rented ones at 18.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,170, below Non-Metro SA's average of $1,300. The median weekly rent figure was $305, compared to Non-Metro SA's $280. Nationally, Encounter Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Encounter Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.7% of all households, including 12.5% couples with children, 44.3% couples without children, and 7.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.3%, with lone person households at 33.1% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Rest of SA average of 2.2.

The educational profile of Encounter Bay exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 19.0%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives to improve this figure. Bachelor degrees are the most common type of higher education in the area, with a rate of 12.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.6% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 37.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications.

This includes advanced diplomas (11.7%) and certificates (26.0%). School attendance in the area is 16.6%, comprising primary education at 6.6%, secondary education at 4.4%, and tertiary education at 2.4%.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Encounter Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Encounter Bay faces notable health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~2,848 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (15.2%) and mental health issues (8.7%), while 49.1% report no medical ailments, compared to 58.3% in Rest of SA. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 53.7% (3,344 people), higher than the 37.0% in Rest of SA. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Encounter Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Encounter Bay showed lower cultural diversity, with 74.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.7% being citizens, and 96.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 52.5%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.0% regionally.

The top three ancestry groups were English (41.0%), Australian (24.4%), and Scottish (9.1%). German (6.7%) and Welsh (0.7%) were notably overrepresented, while Dutch was slightly underrepresented at 1.5%.

Encounter Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Encounter Bay has a median age of 66, which is notably higher than the Rest of SA figure of 47 and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group makes up 22.3% of Encounter Bay's population, compared to Rest of SA's figure, while the 25-34 cohort constitutes only 4.3%. This concentration in the 75-84 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 19.5% to 22.3%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 26.9% to 24.7% and the 55 to 64 group has fallen from 13.4% to 12.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Encounter Bay's age structure. Notably, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 104%, reaching 853 people from 417. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 99% of population growth, emphasizing demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age groups are expected to decrease in number.