Churchill (Qld)

Churchill has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of the suburb of Churchill (Qld) is estimated at around 1,959 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 117 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,842 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,959, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,145 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 6.4% growth since census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the national average (9.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data, are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population by 73 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 62 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Churchill shows approximately one dwelling receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated nine homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 2.4 new residents are gained per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $370,000. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill has significantly lower building activity, with 92.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, although building activity has increased recently. Recent development in Churchill consists entirely of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban character focused on family homes. Detached housing makes up 85.0% of new construction, indicating strong demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures.

With around 426 people per dwelling approval, Churchill indicates a developed market. Population is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are predicted to impact this area. Notable projects include Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, Ipswich Better Bus Network, Ipswich Smart City Program, and Ipswich AOD Residential Rehabilitation Facility (West Moreton Recovery), with the following list outlining those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Churchill recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Churchill's workforce comprises white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 8.7% in the past year, showing an estimated growth of 9.4%. As of December 2025876 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 4.5%, above Greater Brisbane's 4.1%.

Workforce participation was lower at 59.4% compared to Greater Brisbane's 69.6%. Only 7.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.6% compared to the regional average of 8.9%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 9.4%, labour force by 6.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 2.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 3.2% and labour force growth of 3.0%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Churchill's median income among taxpayers is $40,665. The average income in the suburb is $45,373. Both figures are below the national average. In Greater Brisbane, the median income is $58,236 and the average is $72,799. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes in Churchill would be approximately $45,285 (median) and $50,527 (average) as of March 2026. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 31.7% of individuals in Churchill earn between $800 - 1499 annually (621 individuals). This contrasts with regional levels where the $1500 - $2999 bracket is dominant at 33.3%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Churchill, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Churchill, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings. In Brisbane metro, this was 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill was 26.0%, similar to Brisbane metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (40.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,213, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 24.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.1%, consisting of 26.7% lone person households and 4.4% group households. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (35.0%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.9% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Churchill has eight active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route, offering a total of 213 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good, with residents located an average of 214 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%, while trains are used by 6% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Each route has an average service frequency of 30 trips per day, resulting in approximately 26 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 45% of the total population (~885 people), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.8% and 11.4% of residents respectively. 58.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.2% in Greater Brisbane. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (325 people), higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.1%. Senior health outcomes present challenges, with national rankings generally similar to the overall population.

Churchill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population showed low cultural diversity, with 89.0% being Australian citizens, 87.5% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Churchill, comprising 42.7%. Hinduism, however, was overrepresented compared to Greater Brisbane, making up 1.2% versus 2.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.9%), Australian (27.2%), and German (7.8%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 7.1%, compared to 2.1% regionally, while Maori made up 1.2% versus 1.1%, and Welsh comprised 0.7% versus 0.5%.

Churchill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Churchill has a median age of 34, which is younger than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and significantly lower than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.9%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.1% to 16.9%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 3.7% to 5.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 10.6%, and the 25-34 age group has dropped from 15.7% to 14.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Churchill. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 194%, adding 60 residents to reach a total of 92. This growth contributes to the overall demographic aging trend, with residents aged 65 and older accounting for 77% of anticipated population growth. However, the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.