Churchill (Qld)

Churchill has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Nov 2025, Churchill's population is estimated at around 1,944, reflecting an increase of 102 people since the 2021 Census. This increase equates to a 5.5% rise from the previous population count of 1,842. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, which resulted in an estimated resident population of 1,928. This level of population density translates to approximately 1,136 persons per square kilometer, relatively inline with averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Natural growth contributed around 70% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered or years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023 based on 2021 data are used. However, these state projections lack age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data for each age cohort. Looking ahead, projections indicate a decline in overall population by 48 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group projected to expand by 63 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows virtually no dwelling approvals in Churchill in recent years. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, only an estimated two homes have been approved. As of FY26, no approvals have been recorded yet.

This lack of new supply contrasts with an average of 27.5 people moving to the area each year for every dwelling built over those five years, indicating significant demand exceeding supply. Consequently, this usually leads to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in Churchill is $370,000, which is under regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing choices for buyers compared to Greater Brisbane.

However, Churchill has significantly less development activity than the rest of Brisbane, with recent intensification in construction activity that remains below national averages. This could reflect planning constraints or the area's maturity. Population projections indicate stability or decline in Churchill, which may reduce housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes in the area were identified by AreaSearch. Key projects include Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, Ipswich Better Bus Network, Ipswich Smart City Program, and Ipswich AOD Residential Rehabilitation Facility (West Moreton Recovery).

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Churchill faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Churchill's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stands at 9.1%, indicating room for improvement compared to Greater Brisbane's 4.1%.

As of June 2025837 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 55.5% versus Greater Brisbane's 64.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade shows notable concentration, at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation, at 2.6% compared to the regional average of 8.9%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, Churchill's labour force decreased by 1.1%, with employment declining by 0.2%, leading to an unemployment rate drop of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Brisbane saw employment growth of 4.4% and labour force growth of 4.0%. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Churchill's median income among taxpayers is $40,665. The average income in Churchill during this period was $45,373. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Greater Brisbane had a median income of $55,645 and an average income of $70,520 during the same financial year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% from July 2022 to September 2025, current estimates suggest the median income in Churchill would be approximately $46,354 and the average income would be around $51,721 by this date. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 31.7% of locals (616 people) in Churchill earn between $800 and $1,499 annually, unlike the regional trend where 33.3% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Churchill, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Churchill, as per the latest Census, comprised 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings. In Brisbane metro, it was 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill was at 26.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.5% and rented ones at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Churchill was $1,213, below Brisbane metro's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Churchill was $300, the same as Brisbane metro's figure but significantly lower than the national average of $375. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were substantially lower at $1,863.

Churchill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.9 percent of all households, including 23.5 percent couples with children, 18.8 percent couples without children, and 24.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.1 percent, with lone person households at 26.7 percent and group households comprising 4.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 7.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 43.7% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (35.0%). Educational participation is high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, broken down into primary (10.9%), secondary (10.0%), and tertiary (3.8%) levels.

Churchill State School serves the local area, with an enrollment of 287 students as of a recent report. The school caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. The Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) for the area is 904.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates eight active transport stops operating within Churchill, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by one individual route, collectively providing 374 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 214 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 53 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Churchill is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups are affected by various health conditions. Private health cover is low, with approximately 45% of Churchill's total population (~878 people) having it, compared to Greater Brisbane's 49.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Churchill, impacting 12.8 and 11.4% of residents respectively. However, 58.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Greater Brisbane's 62.2%. As of 30 June 20XX (the date the data was collected), Churchill has 16.3% of its residents aged 65 and over (316 people), which is higher than Greater Brisbane's 15.3%. The health outcomes among seniors in Churchill are broadly similar to those of the general population.

Churchill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population showed cultural diversity below the average, with 89.0% being citizens, 87.5% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 42.7%. Hinduism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 0.7%.

Top ancestry groups were English (27.9%), Australian (27.2%), and German (7.8%). Notable divergences included Australian Aboriginal at 7.1% (regional average: 4.1%), Maori at 1.2% (0.9%), and Welsh at 0.7% (0.6%).

Churchill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Churchill's median age is 34, which is lower than Greater Brisbane's 36 and Australia's 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.8%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 15.1% to 16.5%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 3.7% to 4.9%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 13.4% to 10.8%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic changes in Churchill. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 184%, adding 60 residents to reach 94. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 75% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.