Churchill (Qld)

Churchill has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Churchill's population is estimated at around 1,949 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 107 people (5.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,842 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,925 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 10 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,139 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilized, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Moving forward with demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the suburb's population expected to contract by 64 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to increase by 69 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Churchill according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Churchill has experienced approximately one dwelling receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated five homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, zero approvals have been recorded.

On average, 11 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during this period. Supply has substantially lagged demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $370,000. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill records markedly lower building activity, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 772 people per dwelling approval, Churchill reflects a highly mature market. Population is expected to remain stable or decline, potentially reducing pressure on housing and creating opportunities for buyers.

Churchill has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No infrastructure changes in the area will influence performance more than major projects. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Ipswich Hospital Expansion Stage 2, Ipswich Better Bus Network, Ipswich Smart City Program, and Ipswich AOD Residential Rehabilitation Facility (West Moreton Recovery). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Churchill recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Churchill's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 9.0% in the past year, showing an employment growth of 4.9%. As of September 2025843 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 5.0%, higher than Greater Brisbane's 4.0%.

Workforce participation lagged at 58.4%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 70.7%. Only 7.4% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Retail trade had a high representation with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 2.6% versus the regional average of 8.9%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.9%, while labour force grew by 2.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Brisbane experienced employment growth of 3.8% and labour force growth of 3.3%, with a 0.5 percentage point drop in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Churchill's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, the suburb of Churchill has a median income among taxpayers of $40,665 and an average income of $45,373. This is below the national average. In comparison, Greater Brisbane had a median income of $58,236 and an average income of $72,799 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Churchill as of September 2025 would be approximately $44,695 (median) and $49,869 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Churchill all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 31.7% of individuals in Churchill earn within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, while this range captures only 26.5% regionally. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Churchill, with only 81.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Churchill is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Churchill's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.8% houses and 15.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Brisbane metro had 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Churchill stood at 26.0%, similar to Brisbane metro's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (40.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Churchill was $1,213, lower than Brisbane metro's average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Churchill was recorded at $300, compared to Brisbane metro's $380. Nationally, Churchill's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Churchill features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.9% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 24.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.1%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Greater Brisbane average of 2.6.

Churchill faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than Greater Brisbane's average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.2%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.5%) and postgraduate qualifications (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (35.0%). Educational participation is high at 31.1%, comprising primary education (10.9%), secondary education (10.0%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.9% in primary education, 10.0% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Churchill has eight active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by one route, offering a total of 213 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is considered good, with residents usually located 214 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (89%). Train use stands at 6%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

Only 7.4% of residents work from home, as per the 2021 Census. Service frequency averages 30 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 26 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Churchill is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Churchill faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 45% of the total population (around 880 people), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.8% and 11.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 69.2% in Greater Brisbane. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Churchill has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.0%, with 331 people, compared to 15.2% in Greater Brisbane. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but generally align with national rankings for the general population.

Churchill ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Churchill's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 89.0% citizens, 87.5% born in Australia, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 42.7%. Hinduism, however, was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Greater Brisbane's 2.2%.

The top ancestry groups were English (27.9%), Australian (27.2%), and German (7.8%). Notable divergences included Australian Aboriginal (7.1% vs regional 2.1%), Maori (1.2% vs 1.1%), and Welsh (0.7% vs 0.5%).

Churchill hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Churchill's median age is 34, which is younger than Greater Brisbane's figure of 36 and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Brisbane, Churchill has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (16.8%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.6%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population share of those aged 75-84 has grown from 3.7% to 5.5%, while the 15-24 age group increased from 15.1% to 16.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 13.4% to 10.6%, and the 25-34 age group decreased from 15.7% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for Churchill in 2041 indicate significant demographic shifts. The 85+ age cohort is projected to grow by 205%, adding 63 residents, reaching a total of 95. Demographic aging will continue as residents aged 65 and older represent 75% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.