Breakfast Point

Population growth drivers in Breakfast Point are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the Breakfast Point statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,872 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 194 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,678 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,867 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional one validated new address since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 9,369 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, the Breakfast Point (SA2) has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Breakfast Point (SA2) is expected to increase by 221 persons to reach a total population of 5,107 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 3.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Breakfast Point according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Breakfast Point has seen approximately 11 residential properties approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Around 58 homes have been approved between FY21-FY25, with a further 12 approved in FY26 to date.

On average, each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years accommodates about 1.4 new residents per year. This indicates balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and an emphasis on premium properties with an average construction value of $740,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Breakfast Point has significantly lower building activity (61.0% below the regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, development activity has increased recently. The area's established nature is evident as it falls below the national average in new building activity, potentially suggesting planning limitations. Currently, 41.0% of new construction comprises standalone homes, while 59.0% involves medium and high-density housing, offering accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers.

Despite increasing density pressures, there is ongoing robust demand for family homes, with detached housing favoured more in new construction than current patterns suggest (4.0% at Census). Breakfast Point reflects a low-density area with around 274 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 178 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Breakfast Point has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Sydney Metro West, Public Transport Capacity: Parramatta Road and Victoria Road Corridors, Sydney Metro West - Trains, Systems, Maintenance and Operations, and Corsa Mortlake. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Breakfast Point demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Breakfast Point has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 1.9%.

Employment stability has been relative over the past year. As of September 2025, 2,738 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 60.0%, matching Greater Sydney's level. Key industries include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Breakfast Point specializes in rental, hiring & real estate employment, with a share 2.5 times the regional average. Retail trade, however, is under-represented at 6.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 9.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Breakfast Point's labour force increased by 0.0%, while employment declined by 0.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.1% and labour force expand by 2.4%. Statewide in NSW as of 25-Nov-25, employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Breakfast Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Breakfast Point has one of the highest income levels nationally according to AreaSearch data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Breakfast Point is $73,594 and the average income stands at $108,900. These figures compare with those of Greater Sydney, which are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $80,114 (median) and $118,549 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Breakfast Point rank highly nationally, between the 83rd and 93rd percentiles. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.2% of residents (1,422 people). Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 38.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 18.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Breakfast Point features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Breakfast Point's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 4.4% houses and 95.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 37.8% houses and 62.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Breakfast Point stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.3% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,800, below Sydney metro's average of $3,000. Median weekly rent in Breakfast Point was $680, compared to Sydney metro's $560. Nationally, Breakfast Point's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,800 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Breakfast Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.0% of all households, including 19.8% couples with children, 40.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 29.1% and group households making up 0.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Breakfast Point demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Breakfast Point's educational attainment exceeds broader standards, with 48.6% of residents aged 15+ possessing university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. This high level positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 30.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (15.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (13.5%).

Notably, 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 6.7% in primary, 5.2% in tertiary, and 4.4% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows three active public transport stops in Breakfast Point. These stops offer bus services only. One route serves these stops, accommodating 601 weekly passenger trips in total.

Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 214 meters to the nearest stop. Bus services run approximately 85 trips daily across all routes, translating to about 200 weekly trips per individual stop.

Breakfast Point's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Breakfast Point. Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups was very low.

Approximately 70% of the total population (3,401 people) had private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.7 and 5.4% of residents respectively. 73.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.3% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 27.3% of residents were aged 65 and over (1,330 people), higher than the 18.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Breakfast Point is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Breakfast Point's population comprises 37.6% who speak a language other than English at home, with 42.4% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Breakfast Point, accounting for 58.2%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 57.1%. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.6%), Chinese (14.3%), and Australian (13.5%).

Notably, Korean (2.6%) and Hungarian (0.5%) are overrepresented compared to regional figures of 2.7% and 0.3%, respectively. However, Italian is underrepresented at 8.4% versus the regional figure of 12.3%.

Breakfast Point hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Breakfast Point's median age is 47 years, considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up 14.7% of Breakfast Point's population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent at 7.1%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 8.6% to 10.2%, and the 15-24 cohort has increased from 5.9% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 8.0% to 7.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Breakfast Point's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 53%, adding 263 residents to reach 760. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 94% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, populations in the 0-4 and 25-34 age groups are projected to decline.