Breakfast Point

Population growth drivers in Breakfast Point are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Breakfast Point is around 4,883. This figure represents an increase of 205 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,678. The latest estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the ABS ERP data release from June 2024, indicating a resident population of 4,875. This results in a population density ratio of 9,390 persons per square kilometer, placing Breakfast Point in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Breakfast Point has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Breakfast Point are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Breakfast Point is expected to increase by 221 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 3.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Breakfast Point recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Breakfast Point has recorded approximately 10 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 52 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 so far.

This results in about 1.6 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years, suggesting a balanced supply and demand creating stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes is approximately $740,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Breakfast Point has significantly lower building activity, 65.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although development activity has increased recently. This level is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity in Breakfast Point shows 40.0% standalone homes and 60.0% medium and high-density housing.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers while favouring detached housing more than current patterns suggest, indicating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. Breakfast Point reflects a low density area with around 185 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain approximately 167 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Breakfast Point has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Sydney Metro West, Public Transport Capacity: Parramatta Road and Victoria Road Corridors, Sydney Metro West - Trains, Systems and Depot, and Corsa Mortlake. The following details projects likely to have the most relevance.

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Employment performance in Breakfast Point ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Breakfast Point has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 1.8%, lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, 2,828 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4% and workforce participation matching Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical services, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area specializes in rental, hiring & real estate services, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level.

Retail trade is under-represented at 6.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 9.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.1%, leading to a slight unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Breakfast Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Breakfast Point had a median taxpayer income of $73,594 and an average income of $108,900 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This places Breakfast Point in the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $82,874 (median) and $122,632 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Breakfast Point's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly, between the 83rd and 93rd percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 29.2% of Breakfast Point's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, mirroring the broader area where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Higher earners are substantial, with 38.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 18.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Breakfast Point features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Breakfast Point's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 4.4% houses and 95.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 37.8% houses and 62.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Breakfast Point stood at 36.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.3% and rented ones at 36.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,800, below Sydney metro's $3,000. Median weekly rent was $680, higher than Sydney metro's $560. Nationally, Breakfast Point's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Breakfast Point has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 70.0% of all households, including 19.8% couples with children, 40.5% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 29.1% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Breakfast Point demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Breakfast Point's residents aged 15+ have a higher university qualification rate of 48.6% compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. This is led by bachelor degrees at 30.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 15.0% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 26.9% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas at 13.4% and certificates at 13.5%. A significant 21.1% of the population is actively pursuing education, including 6.7% in primary, 5.2% in tertiary, and 4.4% in secondary education.

Educational facilities are located outside Breakfast Point's boundaries, requiring residents to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates two active transport stops operating within Breakfast Point, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by one individual route collectively providing 561 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good with residents typically located 216 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 80 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 280 weekly trips per individual stop.

Breakfast Point's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Breakfast Point with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover found to be exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (3409 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.7 and 5.4% of residents respectively. 73.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 76.3% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, 27.3% of residents were aged 65 and over (1333 people), which is higher than the 18.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Breakfast Point is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Breakfast Point has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.6% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 42.4% born overseas. Christianity is the dominant religion in Breakfast Point, making up 58.2% of people, compared to 57.1% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (18.6%), Chinese (14.3%), and Australian (13.5%).

Notably, Korean (2.6%) is overrepresented in Breakfast Point compared to the regional average of 2.7%. Hungarian (0.5%) and Italian (8.4%) also show significant differences from their respective regional percentages of 0.3% and 12.3%.

Breakfast Point hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Breakfast Point's median age is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The strongest representation in Breakfast Point is the 65-74 age group at 14.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage. The 15-24 age group, however, is less prevalent at 7.1%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 8.6% to 10.2%, while the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 5.9% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 8.0% to 7.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Breakfast Point's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 53%, adding 262 residents to reach a total of 761. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 95% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 25 to 34 age cohorts.