Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The Ayr statistical area's population is estimated at around 8,866 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,603 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,753 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 374 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Ayr has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a -0.2% compound annual growth rate. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data are applied for each age cohort. Moving forward, lower quartile growth of locations outside capital cities is anticipated. The Ayr (SA2) is expected to grow by 23 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 0.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ayr according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Ayr has seen around 6 new homes approved annually over the past 5 financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 34 homes. As of April 2026, 11 approvals have been recorded in FY-26. On average, 3.8 new residents per year are associated with every home built during this period.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties, as evidenced by an average construction value of $675,000 for new homes. In FY-26, $9.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Ayr has significantly less development activity compared to the Rest of Qld, with 63.0% fewer approvals per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

Recent construction activity has intensified, but it remains lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Ayr's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1029 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. With stable or declining population forecasts, Ayr may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. The following details those most relevant:.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Ayr faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ayr has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 6.1%. There are 4,058 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 2.0% higher than Rest of Qld's 4.1%. Workforce participation is lower at 56.3%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance.

Ayr specialises in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.4 times the regional level. However, construction employs only 5.0% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 10.1%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Ayr's labour force decreased by 0.1%, with employment down by 1.7%, leading to a 1.6 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.7% and unemployment rise by 0.3%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 5.0% in five years and 11.5% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Ayr is below the national average. The median income is $51,032 and the average income is $62,167. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's figures where the median income is $53,146 and the average income is $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Ayr would be approximately $56,089 (median) and $68,328 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Ayr all fall between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 29.5% of locals (2,615 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. Housing costs are modest, with 88.1% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranks at just the 21st percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Ayr, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 82.9% houses and 17.0% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 89.5% houses and 10.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr was 41.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.8% and rented ones at 31.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,213, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average. Median weekly rent was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $202. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,213 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.0% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (31.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 52% of Ayr's total population (~4,596 people) having it. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (7.4%). Around 65.5% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 66.2% in the rest of Queensland. Ayr has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (26.1%, or 2,314 people), compared to the rest of Queensland's 24.3%. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's population showed low cultural diversity, with 85.9% citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Ayr at 72.9%, compared to 70.7% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%).

Notably, Spanish (1.2%) and German (4.0%) were overrepresented in Ayr compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 3.5%, respectively. Conversely, Australian Aboriginal representation was lower at 5.2% compared to the region's 8.1%.

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr has a median age of 44 years, which is slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 13.3% of the population, while those aged 5-14 make up a smaller proportion at 10.4%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 35-44 has increased from 10.1% to 11.2%, while the percentage of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.3% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for Ayr in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth occurring among those aged 75-84, who are expected to grow by 36%, adding 274 residents to reach a total of 1,037. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 81% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends in the area. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 5-14 and 45-54.