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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Ayr has an estimated 8,780 residents, up from 8,603 at the 2021 Census — a change of 177 people, or 2.1%. That puts 371 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the population of the suburb of Ayr is assessed at approximately 8,780, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of wider ABS population figures alongside post-Census address validations. This marks an addition of 177 people (2.1%) relative to the 8,603 people recorded in the 2021 Census. Such growth is drawn from an estimated resident count of 8,778 established after reviewing the ABS June 2025 ERP release and 12 validated new addresses confirmed post-Census. With a density of 370 persons per square kilometer, the locality offers ample space per resident as well as scope for expansion.
Expanding by 2.1% since the census, the suburb of Ayr sits within 1.4 percentage points of the wider SA3 area (3.5%), exhibiting solid underlying growth dynamics. Inbound overseas migration served as the principal demographic engine, accounting for roughly 88.0% of recent population additions. Projections generated by ABS/Geoscience Australia (published in 2024 using 2022 baseline figures) are utilised by AreaSearch across SA2 locations. For any remaining SA2 territories or timeframes extending past 2032, Queensland State Government SA2 forecasts published in 2023 (utilising 2021 inputs) are incorporated. Because state-level releases do not provide cohort breakdowns by age, AreaSearch applies proportional distribution weights derived from the ABS Greater Capital Region forecasts (issued in 2023 based on 2022 inputs). Future demographic trends point toward bottom-quartile expansion relative to regional Australia, with SA2 aggregated modeling suggesting the suburb of Ayr will add 50 persons by 2041, representing a modest total rise of 0.6% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
49 new dwellings have been approved in Ayr over the past five years, an average of 9 a year. That is 1.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 15, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Analysis of ABS building approvals by AreaSearch shows Ayr registering approximately 9 residential approvals annually, totaling an estimated 49 dwellings approved across the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, alongside 15 approvals during FY-25 to date. Between FY-21 and FY-25, the ratio of 1.6 incoming residents per approved residence signaled a balanced market, though this metric increased to 4.1 people per dwelling over the previous 2 financial years, pointing toward rising interest and tighter stock levels. Expected construction costs average $429,000 per residence, coming in under the regional benchmark to provide relatively accessible entry points for purchasers.
Furthermore, approvals for commercial construction have reached $9.8 million in the current financial year, demonstrating consistent commercial investment. Compared with Rest of Qld, Ayr records roughly three-quarters of the per-capita residential approval rate, placing it in the 17th percentile across all assessed locations nationally. This limited development activity restricts stock selection for purchasers and channels demand toward the existing housing market. Approvals also trail broader Australian benchmarks, illustrating an established market profile alongside possible development constraints. Free-standing houses constitute 77.0% of newly approved residences, with townhouses and apartments making up 23.0%, reinforcing the low-density fabric of the area. A ratio of 836 people per dwelling approval further highlights the subdued scale of local building activity. Looking forward, the latest quarterly projection from AreaSearch indicates Ayr will expand by 48 residents by 2041. Under prevailing building approval patterns, residential additions should comfortably satisfy this demand, maintaining favorable purchasing conditions and potentially accommodating population gains above current baseline expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Ayr
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Ayr, worth an estimated $10 million. A further 24 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $2.38 billion. 10 are already under construction and 8 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, education & training and business parks & technology hubs. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local capital projects and planning programs exert a substantial impact on regional trajectory. AreaSearch has pinpointed 2 key developments expected to influence the community, with major initiatives comprising the Ayr Industrial Precinct, the St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, the Bowen Pipeline Project, and the Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Ayr Industrial Precinct
Council-led industrial land release in Ayr, North Queensland, on a 14.32 hectare site at 31-87 Craig Street. Stage 1 lots are now selling from $50 per square metre plus GST, with the precinct nearing completion as of mid-2026. The precinct offers fully serviced land with underground power, wide roads, services to boundary and design guidelines for manufacturing, logistics and trade services. Strategic access to the Bruce Highway, Port of Townsville, Townsville Airport and the Bowen Basin.Council has also adopted an Economic Stimulus Policy offering fee and infrastructure charge reductions to support development.
St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment
Refurbishment of prep classrooms at St Francis Catholic School in Ayr to create modern and functional learning environments, featuring raised stages for interactive learning, reading nooks, abundant storage, and themed classrooms inspired by reef and rainforest.
Queensland Resources Common User Facility
Australian-first critical minerals processing test facility being developed by the Queensland Government at Cleveland Bay Industrial Park, Townsville. The facility will enable demonstration-scale processing trials, initially for vanadium with future capability for cobalt, rare earth elements and other critical minerals. Construction and commissioning are progressing with Sedgman as managing contractor, with opening targeted for late 2026.
Wulguru Group Stuart Facility Expansion
Multi-stage expansion of Wulguru Group's 17 hectare Stuart manufacturing and engineering facility. Stage 1, including an 8,500 sqm heavy fabrication workshop, 2,000 sqm paint and blast facility and new head office, was completed in 2025. Stage 2 has development approval and will deliver rail wagon maintenance, locomotive maintenance, rail wheel workshop and rolling stock paint and blast facilities. The balance of the site is currently being developed with operations targeted during 2027.
SunHQ Hydrogen Hub
Renewable hydrogen production and refuelling hub at the Sun Metals Zinc Refinery precinct featuring a 1 MW PEM electrolyser powered by the co-located Sun Metals Solar Farm, with compression, storage and dispensing infrastructure to supply Ark Energy/Townsville Logistics heavy vehicles and third-party users (up to ~155,000 kg p.a.).
Iluka
Masterplanned residential community to be delivered over 10 stages in Wulguru, Townsville. Promoted by PointCorp as large, mostly level lots with ocean views in proximity to Townsville CBD, hospital, ADF base, and James Cook University.
Fairfield Business Precinct
Built business park within the Fairfield Precinct at Idalia, Townsville. Offers freehold and lease opportunities adjacent to major retailers including Bunnings and the Fairfield Central shopping centre. Tenants in the precinct include Liberty Fuel, Reece Plumbing, Bridgestone and Containers for Change. Ingenta indicates one prime allotment (Lot 2, 2/67 Lakeside Drive) remains for sale.
GEON Build-to-Rent at Fairfield & Co
Large-scale Build-To-Rent (BTR) project at Fairfield & Co, comprising two 12-storey apartment towers with 294 apartments and ground floor retail/commercial spaces. GEON plans North Queensland's first build-to-rent development featuring two towers, 294 apartments, and retail spaces at Fairfield & Co site. Part of the $125 million mixed-use Fairfield & Co precinct. Has received formal development approval from Townsville City Council.
3,984 residents of Ayr are employed, from a labour force of 4,244. Unemployment sits at 6.1%, with participation at 57.1%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,519, about 86% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Ayr features a mixed employment base across industrial, blue-collar, and professional roles, supported by a prominent manufacturing presence and an unemployment rate of 6.1%, according to statistical area aggregations by AreaSearch. In March 2026, 3,984 residents were actively employed, while unemployment sat 2.2% above the 3.9% recorded for Regional Qld, accompanied by a subdued participation rate of 57.1% versus 64.2% regionally. Census records show that 4.5% of working residents operated from home, though this figure was influenced by Covid-19 restrictions. The primary employment fields for local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, alongside health care & social assistance.
Concentration is especially pronounced in agriculture, forestry & fishing, which commands 3.4 times the regional proportion of jobs. Conversely, construction represents only 5.0% of local employment, trailing the 10.1% observed across Regional Qld. Comparisons between the resident workforce and locally based jobs recorded in the Census point to a constrained volume of local employment opportunities. Over the preceding 12-month period, combined ABS and SALM figures show Ayr's workforce contracted by 1.9% and total employment fell by 2.7%, driving a 0.8 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Conversely, Regional Qld saw employment rise by 0.1% and its labour force grow by 0.3%, with unemployment ticking up by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia national forecasts from Mar-26 provide an outlook on future hiring demand. Over five and ten-year spans, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% and 13.7% respectively, with performance varying by sector. Mapping these industry projections against Ayr's local industry mix indicates potential employment growth of 5.0% across five years and 11.5% across ten years (representing an illustrative weighting model that excludes local population forecasts).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Ayr is $1,246 a week (about $65,000 a year), with median personal income at $701 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $51,032 a year against an average of $62,167. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Taxation statistics from the ATO for financial year 2023 indicate that the suburb of Ayr registers personal earnings below the national standard. Median income among taxable individuals is $51,032 with an average of $62,167, trailing the benchmarks for Regional Qld of $53,146 and $66,593. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023 places March 2026 estimates at roughly $56,829 for median earnings and $69,229 for average earnings. In the 2021 Census, individual, family, and household earnings within Ayr placed between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally.
The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket accounts for 29.5% of residents (2,590 individuals), aligning closely with the 31.7% observed across the wider region. After housing expenditure, residents keep 88.1% of income, leaving disposable earnings at the 21st percentile nationwide.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Ayr had 3,393 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 83% detached houses and 1% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 32% rented and 41% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $230 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,213 a month. Rent absorbs 18.5% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential stock in Ayr at the time of the latest Census was composed of 82.9% separate houses and 17.0% other dwellings including apartments and townhouses, whereas Regional Qld recorded 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Unencumbered home ownership in Ayr stood well above the broader regional rate at 41.4%, while properties with a mortgage accounted for 26.8% and rental accommodation comprised 31.8%. Typical housing expenses were comparatively low: median monthly mortgage repayments were $1,213 compared to $1,655 in Regional Qld, and weekly median rent was $230 against $345 regionally. On a nationwide scale, Ayr's mortgage commitments remain well below the Australian median of $1,863, with rents also positioned far beneath the national standard of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Ayr counted 3,393 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.2 people each. 22% are couples with children, fewer than in 82% of areas nationally, against 30% couples without children. 33% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.0 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute the vast majority of local households at 64.0%, consisting of couple families without children (30.3%), couples with children (21.7%), and single parent arrangements (10.6%). Non-family living situations represent the remaining 36.0%, predominantly made up of lone person residences at 33.3% alongside group households at 2.9%. The area's median household size is 2.2 people, lower than the Regional Qld figure of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.7% of adults in Ayr hold a university qualification, including 10.3% with a bachelor degree and 1.3% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 95% of areas nationally. A further 31.1% hold a vocational qualification. 8 schools serve the area, with 1,964 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 927 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary attainment levels in the locality remain modest, with university degree completion standing at 12.7% compared to the national benchmark of 30.4%. Within higher education, bachelor degrees represent 10.3% of attainment, postgraduate qualifications account for 1.3%, and graduate diplomas comprise 1.1%. Vocational education is widespread, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ possessing trade or technical credentials, broken down into certificates (31.1%) and advanced diplomas (7.5%). A substantial 26.5% of the local population is actively engaged in studies. This encompasses 10.8% attending primary schools, 9.2% enrolled in secondary education, and 2.4% undertaking tertiary courses.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Ayr means driving: households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.5% of residents in Ayr report no long-term health condition. 7.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 51.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch evaluations of mortality patterns and chronic illnesses indicate notable health challenges for Ayr, with recurring medical conditions present across both younger and older demographics, while private health insurance uptake remains subdued at roughly 52% of residents (~4,551 people). Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent diagnosed ailments, affecting 11.0% and 7.4% of the population respectively, while 65.5% of residents reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. General health metrics across working-age cohorts mirror typical standards. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 27.3% of the community (2,396 people), exceeding the 20.3% share in Regional Qld, with senior health indicators presenting certain challenges while tracking broad national benchmarks.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Ayr is largely Australian-born, at 88.2% of residents, with 8.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (26.3%) and English (25.1%). 5.2% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Ayr records below-average levels of cultural diversity, with 85.9% of the population holding citizenship, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% using solely English at home. Christianity is the predominant faith, practiced by 72.9% of residents in Ayr compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. The primary reported ancestries among Ayr residents are Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%), with Italian heritage significantly exceeding the 2.4% regional benchmark. Notable variations also appear across other backgrounds: Spanish ancestry represents 1.2% in Ayr (versus 0.3% regionally), Australian Aboriginal heritage accounts for 5.2% (versus 3.9%), and German ancestry stands at 4.0% (versus 4.7%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Ayr is 44, older than 76% of areas nationally. 23.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Ayr maintains a demographic profile older than Regional Qld overall. Seniors and retirees aged 65+ account for 27.3% of the population as at August 2026, compared to 20.4% regionally, whereas youth and children (0 - 24) comprise 26.6% against the regional mark of 29.6%. As at August 2026, the estimated median age is 44, matching the 2021 Census figure and exceeding the 41 years recorded for Regional Qld at that Census, as well as the national median of 38. Retiree cohorts expanded from 24.1% at the Census to an estimated 27.3%.
Looking to 2041, retirees and seniors are projected to drive nearly all demographic gains, adding 475 residents (20%) to reach 2,872, whereas the youth population, young retirees, and middle-aged cohorts are projected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Ayr
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · Jun 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 last month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 6 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 2 months ago all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 12 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (8,603 at the 2021 Census → 8,780 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL30110). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.