Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Ayr is estimated to be around 8,779 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 176 people (2.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,603 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,777, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 370 persons per square kilometer. Ayr's 2.0% growth since census positions it within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.4%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 and based on 2021 data. It should be noted that these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence where utilised, AreaSearch is applying proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Moving forward with demographic trends, lower quartile growth of locations outside of capital cities is anticipated. The suburb is expected to grow by 61 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 0.7% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Ayr, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Ayr has seen approximately 6 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 34 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 1.3 new residents arrived per new home each year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, recent data shows this has increased to 8.9 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting Ayr's growing popularity and potential supply constraints. New properties are constructed at an average value of $675,000, targeting the premium market segment.

This year, $9.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Ayr has significantly less development activity, with 63.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, construction activity has intensified recently. Nationally, Ayr's new building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. The area sees 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% attached dwellings, maintaining its traditional low density character focused on family homes.

As of now, there are an estimated 1025 people per dwelling approval in the area. Future projections estimate Ayr to add 59 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. The following details those most relevant:.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Ayr faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ayr has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 4,033 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate stands at 1.9% above Regional Qld's rate of 4.0%.

Workforce participation in Ayr lags behind Regional Qld at 57.5%, compared to 64.5%. Census data reveals that only 4.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance sectors. Ayr specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employs just 5.0% of local workers, lower than Regional Qld's 10.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Ayr's labour force decreased by 0.1%, with employment decreasing by 1.5%, leading to a 1.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Regional Qld saw employment grow by 0.7% and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Ayr's employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Ayr's employment mix.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Ayr is below national average. The median assessed income is $51,032 and the average income stands at $62,167. This contrasts with Regional Qld's figures of a median income of $53,146 and an average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,829 (median) and $69,229 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ayr all fall between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 29.5% of locals (2,589 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which aligns with surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 31.7%. While housing costs are modest with 88.1% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 21st percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Ayr, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted in 2016, comprised 82.9% houses and 17.0% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Regional Queensland's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr stood at 41.4%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (26.8%) or rented (31.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,213, below Regional Queensland's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent figure in Ayr was recorded at $230, compared to Regional Queensland's $345 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.0% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households making up 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Qld average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This gap presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (31.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.8% in primary, 9.2% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,551 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (7.4%). 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are typical. Ayr has 27.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,387 people), higher than Regional Qld's 20.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr had a lower cultural diversity, with 85.9% citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 72.9%, compared to 52.2% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%), with Italian being significantly higher than the regional average of 2.4%.

Notably, Spanish was overrepresented at 1.2%, Australian Aboriginal at 5.2%, and German at 4.0%.

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is marginally higher than Regional Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 13.7% of the population, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.2%, compared to Regional Queensland. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.1% to 11.3%, and the 75-84 cohort has grown from 8.2% to 9.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 12.3% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 11.4% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for Ayr in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 248 residents to reach a total of 1,065. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 84% of population growth, highlighting the trend towards an aging population. However, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 age groups.