Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, Ayr's population is estimated at around 8,676 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 8,603 people, representing a growth of 73 individuals (0.8%). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 8,662 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 23 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 366 persons per square kilometer for Ayr. Over the past decade, Ayr has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of -0.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections from 2023, based on 2021 data, are used. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; thus, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023, based on 2022 data for each age cohort. Moving forward, demographic trends suggest lower quartile growth for locations outside capital cities. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Ayr is expected to grow by 23 persons to reach a population of approximately 8,700 people by the year 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 1.7% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ayr according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Ayr has seen approximately 6 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 31 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. This averages out to around 4.2 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25.

Supply is lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $675,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. Ayr has significantly less development activity compared to the rest of Queensland, with 66.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods.

Nationally, Ayr's development activity is also under the average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity shows 75.0% detached dwellings and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving Ayr's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 875 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Ayr is expected to grow by 146 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Ayr has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified two major projects potentially impacting the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct and St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment. Other notable projects include Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline and Isaac And Whitsunday Regions Productive Water Supply.

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The labour market performance in Ayr lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Ayr's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate is 6.2%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Ayr has 4,056 employed residents, an unemployment rate of 3.9% higher than Rest of Qld's 3.9%, and a workforce participation rate of 56.3%, below Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Key employment sectors are agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Ayr specialises in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.4 times the regional level, while construction employs only 5.0% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 10.1%. The area may lack local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population counts.

Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, Ayr's labour force decreased by 2.2%, with employment declining by 4.2%, leading to a 2.0 percentage point unemployment rate rise. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.8% and unemployment rise by only 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 30, 2022 shows that income in Ayr is below the national average. The median assessed income is $51,032 while the average income stands at $62,167. In comparison, Rest of Qld's figures show a median income of $50,780 and an average income of $64,844. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,171 (median) and $70,864 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Ayr all fall between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 29.5% of locals (2,559 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where this cohort also represents 31.7%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.1% of income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 21st percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Ayr, as assessed in the latest Census, 82.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Non-Metro Qld had 89.5% houses and 10.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr stood at 41.4%, with mortgaged properties at 26.8% and rented ones at 31.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,213, aligning with Non-Metro Qld's average, while the median weekly rent was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $202. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,213 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $230 compared to the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.0 percent of all households, including 21.7 percent couples with children, 30.3 percent couples without children, and 10.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.0 percent, with lone person households at 33.3 percent and group households comprising 2.9 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (31.1%).

Educational participation is high at 26.5%, including 10.8% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education. Ayr has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 1,964 students, with varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 927). The educational mix includes 3 primary, 3 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is at approximately 52%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (7.4%). About 65.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 66.2% in Rest of Qld. Ayr has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 26.1%, or 2,264 people, compared to 24.3% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly similar to the general population's health profile.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr has a cultural diversity level below average, with 85.9% citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ayr, accounting for 72.9%, compared to 70.7% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%).

Notably, Spanish representation is higher at 1.2% in Ayr than the regional average of 0.6%. Similarly, Australian Aboriginal representation is lower at 5.2% compared to 8.1%, while German representation stands at 4.0%, slightly above the regional average of 3.5%.

Ayr hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 65-74 make up a significant portion at 13.3%, while those aged 5-14 are relatively smaller at 10.4% compared to the rest of Queensland. Between 2021 and the present, Ayr's population has seen an increase in the 35-44 age group from 10.1% to 11.2%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 10.5%. Population projections for Ayr in 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes, with the strongest growth expected in the 75-84 age group, which is projected to increase by 39%, adding 290 residents to reach a total of 1,037. This growth will be largely driven by seniors aged 65 and above, who are expected to contribute to 76% of Ayr's population growth. Conversely, declines in population are projected for the 5-14 and 45-54 age groups.