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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Ayr has an estimated 8,779 residents, up from 8,603 at the 2021 Census — a change of 176 people, or 2.0%. That puts 371 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Ayr stands at approximately 8,779, according to calculations from national address registers and regional demographic assessments. This shows an expansion of 176 people (2.0%) compared to the 2021 Census, which recorded 8,603 residents. The figure is derived from a base resident count of 8,777 calculated from the June 2025 ABS demographic update, supplemented by 12 validated new addresses registered after the census. With this population level, the density is calculated at 370 persons per square kilometer, indicating low-density living conditions and potential for future expansion.
The growth rate of 2.0% in the suburb of Ayr since the census lag behind the wider SA3 region (3.4%) by 1.4 percentage points. The primary driver of these recent population gains was overseas migration, which accounted for approximately 88.0% of the overall increase. Projections for the statistical boundaries utilize the 2024 releases from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, using 2022 as their starting point. Where this source is unavailable or for periods after 2032, figures rely on Qld Government projections published in 2023 using 2021 as a base. Because state-level forecasts do not segment populations by age, age cohort shifts are weighted using proportions from the 2023 ABS capital city forecasts based on 2022 data. Future growth in the suburb of Ayr is expected to mirror the slower trajectories characteristic of regional areas, with local forecasts indicating an increase of 61 persons by 2041, which represents a rise of 0.7% over the course of 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
40 new dwellings have been approved in Ayr over the past five years, an average of 8 a year. That is 0.9 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 16, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Based on local building permit statistics, the area averages approximately 8 annual dwelling approvals, bringing the cumulative total to 40 residential builds over the prior 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 15 approvals have been registered. The ratio of new residents to completed dwellings between FY-21 and FY-25 averaged 2.5, indicating steady housing demand. The average construction cost of these new residences is $675,000, suggesting that builders are concentrating on the upper end of the market. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $9.8 million this financial year, indicating a moderate level of non-residential construction activity.
Ayr exhibits a low rate of new construction relative to its population, tracking 56.0% below the average recorded across Rest of Qld. While building activity has shown upward momentum recently, this low volume of new supply tends to support valuation levels for existing homes. The building rate is also lower than the national benchmark, reflecting a mature housing market that may face structural limits to expansion. Current residential approvals consist of 80.0% standalone houses and 20.0% medium and high-density options, maintaining the low-density profile preferred by buyers looking for space. The local building pace corresponds to 606 people for every single housing approval, highlighting a quiet construction sector. According to the latest demographic estimates, the area is projected to add 59 residents by 2041. Given the current construction volumes, the pipeline of new housing is anticipated to satisfy this projected demand, maintaining balanced conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating expansion beyond baseline projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Ayr
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Ayr, worth an estimated $10 million. A further 24 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $2.38 billion. 10 are already under construction and 8 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, education & training and business parks & technology hubs. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and town planning policies are key drivers of regional performance. A total of 2 key projects have been identified as having a potential impact on the area. The primary projects identified include the Ayr Industrial Precinct, the St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, the Bowen Pipeline Project, and the Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Ayr Industrial Precinct
Council-led industrial land release in Ayr, North Queensland, on a 14.32 hectare site at 31-87 Craig Street. Stage 1 lots are now selling from $50 per square metre plus GST, with the precinct nearing completion as of mid-2026. The precinct offers fully serviced land with underground power, wide roads, services to boundary and design guidelines for manufacturing, logistics and trade services. Strategic access to the Bruce Highway, Port of Townsville, Townsville Airport and the Bowen Basin.Council has also adopted an Economic Stimulus Policy offering fee and infrastructure charge reductions to support development.
St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment
Refurbishment of prep classrooms at St Francis Catholic School in Ayr to create modern and functional learning environments, featuring raised stages for interactive learning, reading nooks, abundant storage, and themed classrooms inspired by reef and rainforest.
Queensland Resources Common User Facility
Australian-first critical minerals processing test facility being developed by the Queensland Government at Cleveland Bay Industrial Park, Townsville. The facility will enable demonstration-scale processing trials, initially for vanadium with future capability for cobalt, rare earth elements and other critical minerals. Construction and commissioning are progressing with Sedgman as managing contractor, with opening targeted for late 2026.
Wulguru Group Stuart Facility Expansion
Multi-stage expansion of Wulguru Group's 17 hectare Stuart manufacturing and engineering facility. Stage 1, including an 8,500 sqm heavy fabrication workshop, 2,000 sqm paint and blast facility and new head office, was completed in 2025. Stage 2 has development approval and will deliver rail wagon maintenance, locomotive maintenance, rail wheel workshop and rolling stock paint and blast facilities. The balance of the site is currently being developed with operations targeted during 2027.
SunHQ Hydrogen Hub
Renewable hydrogen production and refuelling hub at the Sun Metals Zinc Refinery precinct featuring a 1 MW PEM electrolyser powered by the co-located Sun Metals Solar Farm, with compression, storage and dispensing infrastructure to supply Ark Energy/Townsville Logistics heavy vehicles and third-party users (up to ~155,000 kg p.a.).
Iluka
Masterplanned residential community to be delivered over 10 stages in Wulguru, Townsville. Promoted by PointCorp as large, mostly level lots with ocean views in proximity to Townsville CBD, hospital, ADF base, and James Cook University.
Fairfield Business Precinct
Built business park within the Fairfield Precinct at Idalia, Townsville. Offers freehold and lease opportunities adjacent to major retailers including Bunnings and the Fairfield Central shopping centre. Tenants in the precinct include Liberty Fuel, Reece Plumbing, Bridgestone and Containers for Change. Ingenta indicates one prime allotment (Lot 2, 2/67 Lakeside Drive) remains for sale.
GEON Build-to-Rent at Fairfield & Co
Large-scale Build-To-Rent (BTR) project at Fairfield & Co, comprising two 12-storey apartment towers with 294 apartments and ground floor retail/commercial spaces. GEON plans North Queensland's first build-to-rent development featuring two towers, 294 apartments, and retail spaces at Fairfield & Co site. Part of the $125 million mixed-use Fairfield & Co precinct. Has received formal development approval from Townsville City Council.
3,982 residents of Ayr are employed, from a labour force of 4,242. Unemployment sits at 6.1%, with participation at 56.9%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.0% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 7,519, about 86% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is split between professional and industrial roles, with a strong manufacturing footprint, alongside an unemployment rate of 6.1%. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 3,982, with unemployment tracking 2.2 percentage points higher than the Regional Qld rate of 3.9%. Furthermore, the participation rate of 56.9% is significantly below the regional average of 64.3%. Census data indicates that 4.5% of workers operated from home, though this figure was influenced by pandemic-era lockdowns. The primary employment sectors for local workers are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and agriculture, forestry & fishing.
The area shows a high concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with its share of employment reaching 3.4 times the regional proportion. In contrast, construction workers account for 5.0% of the workforce, compared to the regional average of 10.1%. Comparison of census employment data against the resident workforce indicates a relatively low number of jobs situated directly within the local area. During the recent 12-month period, the local labor pool contracted by 1.9% while the total number of employed residents fell by 2.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. This trend differed from Regional Qld, which recorded a 0.1% increase in employment, a 0.3% expansion of the labor force, and a minor 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment. Future local employment trends can be evaluated using the national labor market projections published in May-25. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local industrial makeup. Nationally, employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though rates vary by sector. Projecting these industry trends onto the local workforce distribution yields an estimated employment growth of 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Ayr is $1,246 a week (about $65,000 a year), with median personal income at $701 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $51,032 a year against an average of $62,167. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
Based on tax statistics for the 2023 financial year, local taxpayers recorded a median income of $51,032 and an average income of $62,167. These earnings track below the national benchmarks, as well as the Regional Qld median of $53,146 and average of $66,593. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since the 2023 financial year, estimated earnings as of March 2026 would be approximately $56,829 for the median and $69,229 for the average. Census data from 2021 places local household, family, and individual incomes between the 16th and 28th percentiles across Australia.
The local earnings distribution shows that 29.5% of individuals (2,589 residents) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 brackets, similar to the metropolitan regional rate of 31.7%. Although living costs are relatively low, with households keeping 88.1% of their income, total disposable income sits in the 21st percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Ayr had 3,393 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 83% detached houses and 1% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 32% rented and 41% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $230 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,213 a month. Rent absorbs 18.5% of household income here and mortgage repayments 22.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest census, standalone houses make up 82.9% of the local residential stock, while semi-detached, apartment, and other housing structures account for 17.0%. In comparison, Regional Qld consists of 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwelling formats. The rate of outright home ownership is high at 41.4%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 26.8% and rented homes making up 31.8%. The local median monthly mortgage payment is $1,213, while the median weekly rent is $230, which compare to regional figures of $1,655 and $345, respectively. Nationally, these figures are well below the Australian median mortgage payment of $1,863 and the median weekly rent of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Ayr counted 3,393 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.2 people each. 22% are couples with children, fewer than in 82% of areas nationally, against 30% couples without children. 33% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.0 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families comprise 64.0% of local households, consisting of 30.3% couples with no children, 21.7% couples with children, and 10.6% single-parent households. The remaining 36.0% consist of non-family households, which are dominated by single-person households at 33.3%, alongside group living arrangements at 2.9%. The median occupancy size is 2.2 residents, which is smaller than the regional average of 2.5.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.7% of adults in Ayr hold a university qualification, including 10.3% with a bachelor degree and 1.3% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 95% of areas nationally. A further 31.1% hold a vocational qualification. 8 schools serve the area, with 1,964 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 927 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The region records university graduation rates that are lower than the national average, with 12.7% of residents holding a tertiary degree compared to 30.4% across Australia. Among these, bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.1%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of 7.5% with advanced diplomas and 31.1% with certificates. A total of 26.5% of the local population is engaged in studies. This student cohort includes 10.8% enrolled in primary schools, 9.2% in high schools, and 2.4% attending higher education institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Getting around Ayr means driving: households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles, and no scheduled public transport appears in the current timetable feeds. Service data is built from operators' published GTFS timetables; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
65.5% of residents in Ayr report no long-term health condition. 7.0% need daily assistance with core activities, and 51.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 6.5 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Analysis of local mortality data and the prevalence of long-term health conditions reveals notable health issues, which affect both younger and older cohorts, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low at approximately 52% of the population, representing about 4,551 individuals. The most common chronic conditions are arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 11.0% and 7.4% of residents, respectively. Meanwhile, 65.5% of the population reported no chronic health issues, compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health indicators for working-age residents are generally typical. Residents aged 65 and over make up 27.2% of the local population (2,387 people), which is higher than the Regional Qld share of 20.4%.
Health challenges among older residents align generally with national profiles.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Ayr is largely Australian-born, at 88.2% of residents, with 8.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian (26.3%) and English (25.1%). 5.2% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures are below average, with citizens representing 85.9% of the population, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 72.9% of the local population, compared to 52.2% across Regional Qld. The three largest ancestral groups are Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%), with the Italian ancestry cohort being significantly larger than the regional average of 2.4%. Other ancestral representations show variation from regional averages, including Australian Aboriginal ancestry at 5.2% (compared to 3.9% regionally), German at 4.0% (compared to 4.7%), and Spanish at 1.2% (compared to 0.3%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Ayr is 44, older than 76% of areas nationally. 23.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The local median age is 44 years, slightly higher than the Regional Qld average of 41 and older than the national median of 38 years. Residents aged 65 - 74 years are highly represented at 13.7%, whereas the 45 - 54 bracket is relatively small at 10.2% compared to Regional Qld. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age cohort has grown from 10.1% to 11.3%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 8.2% to 9.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 group dropped from 12.3% to 10.2%, and the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.3%.
By 2041, demographic shifts are expected to alter the population structure of the suburb of Ayr, with the 75 to 84 cohort projected to increase by 30%, adding 248 people to reach 1,065. Seniors aged 65 and over are expected to account for 84% of total population growth. In contrast, contractions are projected for both the 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 age brackets.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Ayr
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Jul 2026 last month all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Jul 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 12 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (8,603 at the 2021 Census → 8,779 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL30110). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.