Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, Ayr's population is estimated at around 8,866, reflecting an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.1% change from the previous figure of 8,603. The estimation is based on AreaSearch validation following examination of ERP data released by ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 374 persons per square kilometer. Ayr has demonstrated resilient growth patterns over the past decade, with a compound annual growth rate of -0.2%. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits, so AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort. Moving forward, demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth for locations outside capital cities. The suburb of Ayr is expected to grow by 24 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 0.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ayr according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Ayr approved around 6 new homes annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 34 homes. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.8 new residents per year were attributed to each home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This supply lagged demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New homes were built at an average value of $675,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $9.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Ayr had significantly less development activity compared to Rest of Qld (63.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though recent construction activity has intensified. Nationally, Ayr also reflects lower development activity, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints.

New building activity shows 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% attached dwellings, maintaining Ayr's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The area had an estimated 1029 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. With stable or declining population forecasts, Ayr may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to impact the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. Details regarding these projects are provided below.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Ayr faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ayr's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. Its unemployment rate, as of September 2025, stands at 6.1%. This rate is 2.0% higher than the Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%, indicating a significant disparity.

Ayr has 4,063 residents employed, with workforce participation at 58.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. Census data shows that only 4.5% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Ayr has a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 3.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction employs just 5.0% of local workers, below Rest of Qld's 10.1%. The labour force decreased by 0.1% year to September 2025, while employment decreased by 1.7%, leading to a 1.6 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of Qld saw employment grow by 1.7% and unemployment rise by only 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Ayr's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Ayr, median income is $51,032 and average income is $62,167. This is below the national averages of $53,146 (median) and $66,593 (average) for Rest of Qld. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Ayr would be approximately $56,089 and average income $68,328. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Ayr fall between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort is 29.5% (2,615 people) earning between $1,500 - 2,999 per fortnight. Housing costs are modest with 88.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at the 21st percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Ayr, as per the latest Census, 82.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 17.0% consisting of semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Ayr stood at 41.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.8% and rented ones at 31.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,213, lower than Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Ayr was $230, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $345. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,213 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.0% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (31.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.8% in primary, 9.2% in secondary, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,596 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.0%) and mental health issues (7.4%). 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. Ayr has 26.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,384 people), higher than the 20.4% in Rest of Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.9% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Ayr, accounting for 72.9%, compared to 52.2% across Rest of Qld. The top three ancestral groups are Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%), with Italians being notably higher than the regional average of 2.4%.

Ayr has notable divergences in certain ethnic groups: Spanish at 1.2% (vs regional 0.3%), Australian Aboriginal at 5.2% (vs 3.9%), and German at 4.0% (vs 4.7%).

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than Queensland's average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 65-74 are particularly prominent in Ayr, comprising 13.6% of the population, while those aged 5-14 make up a smaller proportion at 10.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 10.1% to 11.4%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 10.0%. Additionally, the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 11.4% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for Ayr in the year 2041 indicate significant demographic shifts. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 229 residents and reaching a total of 1,036 individuals. Residents aged 65 years and above will drive 88% of the population growth, highlighting the trend of demographic aging in Ayr. Conversely, population declines are projected for both the 65 to 74 age group and the 5 to 14 age cohort.