Ayr

Ayr has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, Ayr's estimated population is around 8,866. This reflects an increase of 263 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,603. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,753 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. Ayr's population density ratio is 374 persons per square kilometer. Ayr's growth rate of 3.1% since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.8%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 88.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. These state projections do not provide age category splits; hence AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings in line with the ABS Greater Capital Region projections for each age cohort, released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Demographic trends anticipate lower quartile growth of locations outside capital cities. The suburb of Ayr is expected to grow by 41 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 0.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Ayr according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Ayr has seen around 6 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 34 homes. So far in FY2025-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.6 new residents per year have been associated with every home built between FY2020-21 and FY2024-25. This supply lag indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, with new homes being constructed at an average value of $675,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In this financial year, $9.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Ayr has significantly less development activity, 63.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties but recent construction activity has intensified. Nationally, Ayr's new building activity is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. The area maintains its traditional low density character with 78.0% detached dwellings and 22.0% attached dwellings, focusing on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With an estimated population of 1029 people per dwelling approval, Ayr's quiet, low activity development environment is expected to experience less housing pressure given stable or declining population forecasts, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Ayr has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely impacting the area: Ayr Industrial Precinct, St Francis Catholic School Prep Classrooms Refurbishment, Bowen Pipeline Project, and Bowen Basin Gas Pipeline. The following details projects most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Ayr faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Ayr's workforce comprises an equal mix of white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, Ayr has 4,014 employed residents, with an unemployment rate at 6.9% (1.9% above Regional Qld's rate).

Workforce participation stands at 57.3%, significantly lower than Regional Qld's 65.4%. Census data reveals that only 4.5% of Ayr's residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing (3.4 times the regional level), manufacturing, and health care & social assistance. Construction employs just 5.0% of local workers, below Regional Qld's 10.1%.

Ayr appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Ayr's labour force decreased by 0.1%, with employment dropping by 1.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Qld saw employment grow by 0.7% during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Ayr's industry-specific employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.0% over five years and 11.5% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that in Ayr, median income is $51,032 and average income is $62,167. This is below Regional Qld's median income of $53,146 and average income of $66,593. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,089, and estimated average income would be around $68,328. According to the 2021 Census, Ayr's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 16th and 28th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 29.5% of locals (2,615 people) earn between $1,500 - $2,999, similar to the surrounding region where this cohort represents 31.7%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.1% income retention, Ayr's total disposable income ranks at just the 21st percentile nationally.

Ayr is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Ayr's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.9% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares with Regional Qld's 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Ayr's home ownership level was 41.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.8%) or rented (31.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Ayr was $1,213, below Regional Qld's average of $1,655. The median weekly rent in Ayr was $230, compared to Regional Qld's $345. Nationally, Ayr's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Ayr features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.0% of all households, including 21.7% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 10.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Queensland average of 2.5.

Ayr faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 10.3% of residents holding such qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 38.6% holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.5%) and certificates (31.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (10.8%), secondary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Ayr is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Ayr faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~4,596 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.0% and 7.4% of residents respectively. 65.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 67.6% across Regional Qld. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 27.1% of residents aged 65 and over (2,402 people), which is higher than the 20.4% in Regional Qld. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Ayr ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Ayr had a lower-than-average cultural diversity, with 85.9% citizens, 88.2% born in Australia, and 91.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 72.9%, compared to Regional Qld's 52.2%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (26.3%), English (25.1%), and Italian (11.9%), with Italian being significantly higher than the regional average of 2.4%.

Ayr had notable differences in certain ethnic group representations: Spanish at 1.2% (regional average 0.3%), Australian Aboriginal at 5.2% (regional average 3.9%), and German at 4.0% (regional average 4.7%).

Ayr hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Ayr's median age is 44 years, which is slightly higher than the Regional Queensland average of 41 years and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 13.7% of the population, while the 5-14 age group is relatively smaller at 10.1%. Between 2021 and the present day, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.1% to 11.5%, and the 65-74 cohort has increased from 12.6% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 12.3% to 10.1%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 11.4% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for Ayr in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 61%, adding 227 residents to reach a total of 600. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 91% of population growth, emphasizing aging trends in Ayr's demographics. However, population declines are projected for the 65-74 age group and the 45-54 age group.