Aranda

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aranda reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Aranda's population is estimated at around 2,580 as of November 2025. This reflects a decrease of 25 people (1.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,605 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,582 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,653 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and for years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, with 2022 as a base, are adopted. Considering the projected demographic shifts, over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to contract by 319 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 45 to 54 age group, which is projected to increase by 4 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Aranda according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Aranda had approximately 9 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 49 homes. As of FY26, there has been 1 approval recorded. The average new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was around 0.8. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties in Aranda is $399,000, higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY26, there have been $1.2 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Aranda shows approximately 66% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 61st percentile nationally. New development consists of 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 87.0% houses.

This reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. Aranda has around 246 people per approval, indicating a low-density area. With population projections showing stability or decline, Aranda is expected to experience reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Aranda has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Bruce Precinct (Section 15), Bruce Residential Development Zone, Bruce Commercial Centre Expansion, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Aranda shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Aranda has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.6%.

As of June 2025, 1,361 residents are employed, below the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) rate of 3.4%, and workforce participation is lower at 64.2% compared to ACT's 69.6%. Employment is concentrated in public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services, with notable concentration in education & training at 1.6 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance has lower representation at 9.5%, compared to ACT's 11.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities.

Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.6% and labour force by 1.6%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In comparison, ACT saw employment growth of 1.9%, labour force expansion of 1.6%, and a reduction in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Aranda's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Aranda's median assessed income at $76,660 and average income at $96,204. This places Aranda in the top percentile nationally. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory's median income is $68,678 and average income is $83,634. Based on a 13.6% growth since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $87,086 (median) and $109,288 (average). Census 2021 data ranks Aranda's household, family, and personal incomes highly, between the 96th and 98th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 37.1% of locals earn over $4,000 weekly, with a significant 52.6% earning above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 90.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Aranda's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Aranda is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation in Aranda, 87.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 12.7% being semi-detached, apartments or other types. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aranda stood at 44.7%, with mortgaged properties at 38.8% and rented dwellings at 16.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Aranda was $530 compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Aranda's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aranda features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 78.7% of all households, including 39.6% couples with children, 30.2% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Aranda places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Aranda is notably high, with 62.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and the SA3 area average of 43.8%. The most common qualifications are bachelor degrees (30.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (24.5%) and graduate diplomas (7.3%). Vocational pathways account for 16.2%, with advanced diplomas at 8.1% and certificates also at 8.1%. Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 7.8% pursuing tertiary education. Aranda Primary School and St Vincent's Primary School serve a total of 695 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1141). Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Aranda functions as an education hub, offering 26.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.1, and attracts students from nearby communities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 13 active stops operating within Aranda, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 4 distinct routes, offering 211 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents usually situated 228 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 30 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Aranda is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Aranda demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, despite being higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 65% of Aranda's total population (1,681 people) has private health cover, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 57.1%, and the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in Aranda are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.7% and 7.9% of residents respectively.

70.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 68.1% across the Australian Capital Territory. Aranda has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 19.6% (505 people), compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 15.3%.

Aranda was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Aranda's population showed high cultural diversity, with 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 26.5% born overseas. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 31.0%. Judaism, however, had an overrepresentation of 0.4%, compared to 0.1% in Australian Capital Territory.

For ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.3%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Polish was overrepresented at 1.1% (vs regional 0.8%), Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.6%), and Hungarian at 0.4% (vs 0.3%) in Aranda.

Aranda hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Aranda's median age is 42, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory figure of 35 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, Aranda has a notably over-represented 5-14 cohort (15.0% locally) and an under-represented 25-34 age group (10.0%). Between 2021 and the present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.7% to 12.8%, while the 45-54 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Aranda's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand notably, increasing by 4 people (1%) from 363 to 368. Conversely, both the 85+ and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.