Victor Harbor
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Victor Harbor are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Victor Harbor's population was approximately 17,598 as of August 2025. This showed an increase of 1,751 people, representing an 11.0% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,847. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,889 in June 2024 and an additional 448 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 137 persons per square kilometer. Victor Harbor's growth exceeded that of non-metro areas (6.0%) and its SA4 region, indicating it was a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 86.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, the SA State Government's Regional/LGA projections were used, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Future demographic trends projected an above median population growth for regional areas nationally, with Victor Harbor expected to increase by 1,994 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of 7.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Victor Harbor among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Victor Harbor has seen approximately 240 new homes approved annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totalling 1,202 approvals across the past five years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 62 recorded so far in FY-26. On average, 1.2 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes is $391,000.

In FY-26, $46.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to the rest of South Australia, Victor Harbor shows moderately higher new home approvals, 14.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. This level is significantly above the national average, indicating strong developer interest in the area. New building activity consists of 96.0% detached houses and 4.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

With around 59 people per dwelling approval, Victor Harbor exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 1,257 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Victor Harbor has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 14 projects potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Best Life Canterbury Victor Harbor, Victor Retail Depot, Flinders Parade Townhouse Development, and McKinlay Street Car Parking Precinct. The following details projects likely most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

While Victor Harbor retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.3%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Victor Harbor has a skilled labor force with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of June 2025 is 3.3%.

There are 5,751 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% lower than Rest of SA's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation is significantly lower at 39.1%, compared to Rest of SA's 54.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 3.3% compared to the regional average of 14.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the labor force decreased by 2.2%, while employment declined by 3.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of SA where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labor force grew by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 1.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Victor Harbor's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Victor Harbor's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $39,196. The average income was $50,077 during the same period. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of SA had a median income of $46,889 and an average of $56,582 in financial year 2022. By March 2025, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $43,441 and the average around $55,500, based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.83% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Victor Harbor all fall between the 3rd and 6th percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 33.4% of residents earn between $400 and $799 per week (5,877 individuals), unlike broader trends where 27.5% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. This indicates a prevalence of lower-income residents, with 40.5% earning below $800 per week. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, which ranks at only the 5th percentile nationally.

Victor Harbor is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Victor Harbor's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.3% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro SA's figures of 92.1% houses and 7.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Victor Harbor was recorded at 53.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.6% and rented ones at 22.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro SA's average, while the median weekly rent figure stood at $290 compared to Non-Metro SA's $280. Nationally, Victor Harbor's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Victor Harbor features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 15.8% couples with children, 39.3% couples without children, and 9.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of SA average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Victor Harbor fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 17.8%, significantly below the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 27.3%.

School and university attendance encompasses 19.4% of the community, including 8.2% in primary education, 5.4% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education. Victor Harbor's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,549 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1015) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 1 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 14.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.2, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Victor Harbor is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Victor Harbor faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 46% (~8,130 people) compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.0%) and mental health issues (9.3%). Conversely, 53.4% reported no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of SA's 58.3%. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 44.7% (~7,873 people), compared to Rest of SA's 37.0%.

Victor Harbor ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victor Harbor had a cultural diversity level below average, with 79.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.1% being citizens, and 96.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Victor Harbor, comprising 47.5% of people, compared to 42.7% across Rest of SA. The top three ancestry groups were English (39.0%), Australian (27.5%), and Scottish (8.5%).

Notably, German was overrepresented at 6.5%, Welsh had the same representation as the region at 0.6%, and Dutch had a slightly lower representation at 1.4%.

Victor Harbor ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victor Harbor is 60 years, significantly higher than Rest of SA's average of 47 and Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 75-84 year-old group is particularly prominent at 18.3%, while the 25-34 year-old group is smaller at 5.8% compared to Rest of SA. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. From the 2021 Census, the percentage of the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 15.0% to 18.3%, while the 65 to 74 year-old cohort has declined from 22.4% to 20.5% and the 55 to 64 year-old group has dropped from 14.4% to 13.3%. By 2041, Victor Harbor is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 85+ cohort projected to grow by 113%, adding 1,171 residents to reach 2,206. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, both the 35-44 and 15-24 year-old age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.