Victoria River
Statistical Area - sa2

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Victoria River's population was around 3,088 as of August 2025. This reflected an increase of 479 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,609 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,080 in June 2024 and two validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 0.00 persons per square kilometer. Victoria River's growth rate of 18.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 70.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with other drivers such as interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimations, AreaSearch applied growth rates by age cohort, provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population projections indicated an above median growth for Australia's regional areas, with Victoria River expected to expand by 731 persons to reach a total of 3,829 by 2041, marking a 23.4% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has approved approximately five residential properties annually. Between financial years 2021 (FY-21) and 2025 (FY-25), a total of 27 homes were granted approval, with no approvals recorded so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 6.7 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built.

This has led to a significant demand outpacing supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $200,000, below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. In FY-26, $669,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to the rest of the Northern Territory (NT). When measured against the NT average, Victoria River shows 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 17th percentile nationally, indicating limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings.

New building activity in Victoria River consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 897 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Victoria River will gain approximately 723 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth in the area.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig Farmlands, and Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 9.5%.

As of June 2025, 1,263 residents are employed, an unemployment rate of 3.6% higher than the Rest of NT's 5.9%. Workforce participation stands at 44.9%, significantly lower than the Rest of NT's 50.7%. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing; public administration & safety; and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing dominate with an employment share 6.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 10.9% of local workers, below the Rest of NT's 18.8%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data showing fewer working residents than locals. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.8%, and employment fell by 1.3%, reducing unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with the Rest of NT, where employment declined by 1.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Victoria River's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Victoria River had a median income among taxpayers of $37,742 and an average of $46,612. These figures are below the national average. The Rest of NT had a median income of $51,655 and an average of $61,577 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Victoria River as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,275 (median) and $52,210 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Victoria River all fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of the community (963 individuals) earn between $800 and $1,499, unlike metropolitan regions where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 dominate with 33.6%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 93.6% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 16th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Victoria River's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 83.0% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro NT's 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Victoria River stood at 9.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (0.8%) or rented (89.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,409, significantly lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,615 and the national figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Victoria River was recorded at $75, substantially below Non-Metro NT's $178 and the national figure of $375.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 4.1 people, larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.2.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are common, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (5.7%) and certificates (25.7%). Educational participation is high at 31.7%, comprising primary education (18.8%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (1.8%).

Seven schools operate within Victoria River, educating approximately 461 students. All seven offer integrated K-12 education for academic continuity.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Victoria River's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Victoria River. Both younger and older age groups have a low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering about 1,432 people in total.

This compares to 49.8% across the rest of NT and 55.3% nationally. Diabetes and heart disease are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 8.4 and 5.2% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 79.5%, report being free from medical ailments, compared to 78.3% in the rest of NT. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 5.1% (158 people), compared to 8.2% in the rest of NT. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average and warrant more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River's cultural diversity was above average, with 3.4% of its population born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Victoria River, accounting for 73.3% of people, compared to 51.2% across Rest of NT. The top three ancestry groups were Australian Aboriginal (73.3%), Australian (9.0%), and English (7.9%).

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Victoria River are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 73.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.9%, Australian, comprising 9.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 17.5%, and English, comprising 7.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.4%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victoria River is 25 years, which is younger than the Rest of NT average of 31 years and considerably younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Victoria River at 19.3%, compared to the Rest of NT average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.2%. This concentration of the 15-24 cohort is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 5-14 age group has grown from 17.4% to 18.9%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 16.8% to 18.2%. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort has declined from 21.3% to 19.3% and the 0-4 age group dropped from 10.5% to 8.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Victoria River's age structure. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 46%, adding 257 residents to reach a total of 820.