Victoria River

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Victoria River's population was approximately 3,147 as of May 2026. This figure represents a rise of 538 people from the 2021 Census total of 2,609, indicating a growth rate of 20.6%. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses since the Census date in June 2025. With this population density, Victoria River has 0.00 persons per square kilometer. The area's growth exceeded both national (9.3%) and state averages between 2021 and May 2026. Natural growth contributed approximately 73.1% of the overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort from the ABS's Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). By 2041, Victoria River is projected to have a population of 3,826, reflecting an increase of 21.6% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has recorded approximately five residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 27 homes were approved, with an additional 13 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 6.7 people moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these five financial years.

This significant demand outpaces supply, which typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $380,000. In FY26, $669,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Victoria River shows 13.0% lower construction activity per person relative to the Rest of NT and ranks among the 17th percentile nationally for areas assessed, indicating somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings.

This activity is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity in Victoria River comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 897 people, reflecting its quiet, low-activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Victoria River will gain 679 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 8thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Six projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence this region. Notable projects include East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig and Knox Plain, and Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area, with an unemployment rate of 10.1%. Employment stability has remained relatively consistent over the past year.

As of December 2025, 1,265 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate stands at 4.0% above Regional NT's rate of 6.1%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Victoria River is significantly lower than Regional NT's, at 61.7%. According to Census responses, only 9.4% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, public administration & safety, and education & training.

The area has a particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 6.1 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs only 10.9% of local workers, below Regional NT's 18.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.2%, while labour force grew by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. This compares to Regional NT where employment grew by 0.7%, labour force expanded by 1.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Victoria River's employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode-level ATO data released for the financial year ending 30 June 2023 indicates that Victoria River SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $39,421 and an average income of $48,340. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Regional NT had a median income of $53,572 and an average income of $63,776 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth figures since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $43,131 (median) and $52,889 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Victoria River all fall within the 0th to 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of individuals in Victoria River earn between $800 and $1,499 annually, differing from metropolitan regions where the dominant earnings band is $1,500 to $2,999 with 33.6%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 93.6% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Victoria River, as recorded in the latest Census, 83.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Victoria River was 9.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 0.8% and rented dwellings at 89.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,409, below Regional NT's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Victoria River was $75, compared to Regional NT's $150. Nationally, Victoria River's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.2% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 4.1 people, which is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (5.7%) and certificates (25.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (18.8%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (1.8%).

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Victoria River is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Victoria River faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,441 people), compared to 51.6% in Regional NT and a national average of 55.7%.

Diabetes and heart disease are the most common medical conditions, impacting 8.4 and 5.2% of residents respectively. A total of 79.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.4% in Regional NT. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 5.4% of residents aged 65 and over (170 people), lower than the 8.5% in Regional NT. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River's cultural diversity was above average, with 3.4% of its population born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Victoria River, accounting for 73.3%, compared to 54.1% across Regional NT. The top three ancestry groups were Australian Aboriginal (73.3%), Australian (9.0%), and English (7.9%).

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Victoria River are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 73.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%, Australian, comprising 9.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.9%, and English, comprising 7.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victoria River is 25 years, which is younger than Regional NT's average of 31 and Australia's average of 38 years. The 5-14 cohort makes up 19.5% of the population in Victoria River, compared to the Regional NT average of 16.0%, and is higher than the national average of 12.0%. Meanwhile, those aged 35-44 make up 11.9% of the population, which is lower than the Regional NT average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and the present, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 16.8% to 19.0%, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 17.4% to 19.5%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort declined from 10.5% to 8.0%, and the 15 to 24 group dropped from 21.3% to 18.8%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 25 to 34 age group is expected to grow by 40%, adding 239 residents to reach a total of 836 in this cohort.