Victoria River

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Victoria River's population is around 3,088 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 479 people (18.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,609 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,080 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 2 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 0.00 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Victoria River's 18.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth, which contributed approximately 70.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including interstate and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Looking at population projections moving forward, above-median population growth for Australia's regional areas is projected, with the area expected to expand by 731 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 23.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval each year, with 27 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 0 so far in FY-26. With an average of 6.7 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand is significantly outpacing supply, which typically puts upward pressure on prices and increases competition among buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $380,000. Additionally, $669,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Relative to the Rest of NT, Victoria River shows 12.0% lower construction activity (per person) and ranks in the 17th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established dwellings. This activity is below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 897 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Victoria River will gain 723 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 8thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 5 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig Farmlands, and Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 10.1%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 1,265 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.0% above Regional NT's rate of 6.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (62.8% compared to Regional NT's 71.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 9.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area shows particularly strong specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 6.1 times the regional level. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 10.9% of local workers, below Regional NT's 18.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. This compares to Regional NT, where employment grew by 0.7%, labour force expanded by 1.1%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Victoria River. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Victoria River's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Victoria River SA2's median income among taxpayers is $39,421, with an average of $48,340. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional NT's median of $53,572 and average of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $42,748 (median) and $52,420 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Victoria River all fall between the 0th and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 31.2% of the community (963 individuals), differing from patterns across the metropolitan region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 33.6%. While housing costs are modest with 93.6% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Victoria River, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 83.0% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Victoria River lagged that of Regional NT, at 9.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (0.8%) or rented (89.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NT average at $1,409, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $75, compared to Regional NT's $1,733 and $150. Nationally, Victoria River's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 74.2% of all households, comprising 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size of 4.1 people is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (10.4%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (5.7%) and certificates (25.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 18.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Victoria River is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Victoria River faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,414 people). This compares to 51.6% across Regional NT. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are diabetes and heart disease, impacting 8.4% and 5.2% of residents, respectively, while 79.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 78.4% across Regional NT. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 5.3% of residents aged 65 and over (163 people), which is lower than the 8.3% in Regional NT. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 3.4% of its population born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Victoria River is Christianity, which makes up 73.3% of people in Victoria River, compared to 54.1% across Regional NT.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Victoria River are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 73.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%, Australian, comprising 9.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.9%, and English, comprising 7.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The 25-year median age in Victoria River is materially younger than Regional NT's average of 31 and is considerably younger than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional NT average, the 15 - 24 cohort is notably over-represented (19.2% locally), while 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented (11.9%). This 15 - 24 concentration is well above the national 12.5%. In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 16.8% to 18.7% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort increased from 17.4% to 19.2%. Conversely, the 0 to 4 cohort has declined from 10.5% to 8.1% and the 15 to 24 group dropped from 21.3% to 19.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Victoria River's age structure. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 42%, adding 243 residents to reach 820.