Victoria River

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Victoria River's population was approximately 3,088 as of February 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 479 people, equivalent to an 18.4% rise since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,609 individuals. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 3,080 in June 2024 and two validated new addresses added since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 0 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person. Victoria River's population growth of 18.4% since the 2021 census outpaced both the national average (9.9%) and state averages, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed roughly 70.0% of overall population gains in recent periods, although all drivers including interstate migration and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, growth rates by age cohort are applied post-2032, using ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Population projections indicate above-median growth for Australia's regional areas, with Victoria River expected to expand by 731 persons to reach a total population of approximately 3,829 individuals by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 23.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has approved approximately five residential properties each year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, 27 homes were granted approval, with none yet approved in FY-26. On average, about 6.7 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years.

This demand significantly exceeds supply, typically leading to increased competition among buyers and upward pressure on prices. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $380,000. In FY-26, $669,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NT, Victoria River has 12.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks at the 17th percentile nationally, suggesting limited buyer options but strong demand for established dwellings.

This activity is below the national average, reflecting the area's established character and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The current population estimate per dwelling approval is 897 people. By 2041, Victoria River is forecast to gain 723 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 8thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified five projects that may impact this region. Notable ones include East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig Farmlands, and Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 9.7% as of September 2025. There are 1,252 residents employed, which is 3.9% higher than the Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%. Workforce participation stands at 61.9%, significantly lower than the Rest of NT's 70.4%.

According to Census responses, only 9.4% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing (6.1 times the regional level), public administration & safety, and education & training. Health care & social assistance employs just 10.9% of local workers, below the Rest of NT's 18.8%. Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.4%, employment declined by 1.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points.

Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Victoria River's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Victoria River SA2 had a median income of $39,421 and an average of $48,340. This is below the national average. The Rest of NT had a median income of $53,572 and an average of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Victoria River would be approximately $42,748 (median) and $52,420 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that incomes in Victoria River fall between the 0th and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of individuals earn between $800 - 1,499, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 band dominates with 33.6%. Housing costs are modest, with 93.6% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Victoria River, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 17.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Victoria River stood at 9.7%, with mortgaged properties at 0.8% and rented dwellings at 89.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,409, lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Victoria River was $75, compared to Non-Metro NT's $150. Nationally, Victoria River's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,409 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.2% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 4.1 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.1.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (5.7%) and certificates (25.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 18.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Victoria River is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Victoria River faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,414 people), compared to 51.6% across Rest of NT and 55.7% nationally.

The most common medical conditions are diabetes (8.4%) and heart disease (5.2%). 79.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.4% across Rest of NT. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Only 5.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (163 people), lower than the 8.3% in Rest of NT. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 3.4% of its population born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was identified as the main religion in Victoria River, making up 73.3% of people there, compared to 54.1% across the Rest of NT. Regarding ancestry, Australian Aboriginal was the top represented group in Victoria River, comprising 73.3% of the population, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 43.6%.

Australian comprised 9.0% of the population, notably lower than the regional average of 14.9%, while English made up 7.9%, also notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victoria River is 25 years, which is younger than the Rest of NT average of 31 and considerably younger than Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NT average, those aged 15-24 are notably over-represented at 19.2% locally, while those aged 35-44 are under-represented at 11.9%. This concentration of those aged 15-24 is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 16.8% to 18.7%, while the age group 5 to 14 increased from 17.4% to 19.2%. Conversely, the age groups 0 to 4 decreased from 10.5% to 8.1% and 15 to 24 dropped from 21.3% to 19.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Victoria River's age structure, with the strongest projected growth in the 25 to 34 age group at 42%, adding 243 residents to reach a total of 820.