Victoria River
Statistical Area - sa2

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Victoria River's population was approximately 3,088 as of August 2025. This figure shows an increase of 479 people from the 2021 Census population of 2,609, reflecting a growth rate of 18.4%. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures for June 2024 and two additional validated addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately zero persons per square kilometer. Victoria River's population growth exceeded both national (8.6%) and state averages, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Natural growth contributed about 70% to overall gains recently, with other factors like interstate and overseas migration also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 for each SA2 area, based on 2022 data. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS's Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population projections indicate above-median growth for Australia's regional areas, with Victoria River expected to expand by 731 persons to reach a total of 3,829 by 2041, representing a growth rate of approximately 23.4% over the seventeen-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has recorded approximately nine residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data from the ABS shows 46 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY20 to FY25, with none yet reported for FY26. On average, 6.7 people have moved to the area annually per dwelling built during these years, indicating demand significantly outpaces supply. This typically exerts upward pressure on prices and intensifies competition among buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $200,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. In terms of commercial development, $669,000 in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating minimal activity in this sector. Compared to the Rest of NT, Victoria River exhibits similar construction activity per person, supporting market stability aligned with regional trends. However, this activity remains below the national average, suggesting an established area potentially constrained by planning limitations.

New building activity comprises 75% detached houses and 25% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. With an estimated 897 people per dwelling approval, Victoria River maintains a quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate a gain of 723 residents by 2041, with construction pace currently matching projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects potentially affecting the region: East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Ord River Irrigation Expansion Stage 2 (Goomig Farmlands), Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements, and Desert Springs Octopus Renewable Energy Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notably in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 9.5%.

As of June 2025, there are 1,263 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 9.5%, which is 3.6% higher than the Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%. Workforce participation in Victoria River lags at 44.9%, compared to the Rest of NT's 50.7%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing (6.1 times the regional level), public administration & safety, and education & training. Health care & social assistance employs only 10.9% of local workers, below the Rest of NT's 18.8%.

Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.8%, employment declined by 1.3%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.5 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest Victoria River's employment could grow by approximately 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Victoria River's median income among taxpayers is $37,742, with an average of $46,612. This is below the national average, compared to Rest of NT's median of $51,655 and average of $61,577. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Victoria River would be approximately $41,682 (median) and $51,478 (average) as of March 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Victoria River all fall between the 1st and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 31.2% of the community (963 individuals), differing from patterns across the metropolitan region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 33.6%. While housing costs are modest with 93.6% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 16th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Victoria River with 83.0% being houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NT had 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Victoria River was at 9.7%, with dwellings either mortgaged (0.8%) or rented (89.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,409, below Non-Metro NT's average of $1,615. Median weekly rent was $75 in Victoria River, compared to Non-Metro NT's $178 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Victoria River's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 4.1 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.2.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 10.4%, substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 5.7% and certificates at 25.7%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 18.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 7 schools operates within Victoria River, educating approximately 461 students as of the latest data (2021). All 7 schools offer integrated K-12 education, providing continuity throughout students' academic journey.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Victoria River's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Victoria River, with both younger and older age cohorts having low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 46% of the total population (1,432 people), compared to 49.8% in the Rest of NT. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%.

Diabetes and heart disease are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.4 and 5.2% of residents respectively. 79.5% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 78.3% across the Rest of NT. The area has 5.1% of residents aged 65 and over (158 people), lower than the 8.2% in the Rest of NT. While health outcomes among seniors are above average, they require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 3.4% born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity dominates Victoria River's religious landscape, practiced by 73.3%, compared to 51.2% in the rest of Northern Territory. Regarding ancestry, Australian Aboriginal is the most represented group (73.3%), significantly higher than the regional average of 43.9%.

Australians make up 9.0%, notably lower than the regional average of 17.5%. English ancestry comprises 7.9%, also lower than the regional average of 14.4%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victoria River is 25 years, which is younger than the Rest of NT average of 31 and Australia's average of 38. The 15-24 cohort is over-represented in Victoria River at 19.3%, compared to the Rest of NT average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.2%. This concentration of young adults is higher than the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and the present, the 5-14 age group has grown from 17.4% to 18.9%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 16.8% to 18.2%. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort has declined from 21.3% to 19.3%, and the 0-4 age group dropped from 10.5% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Victoria River's age structure, with the strongest growth projected for the 25-34 cohort at 46%, adding 257 residents to reach a total of 820.