Victoria River

Victoria River has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Victoria River's population is approximately 3,088 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 479 people from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,609. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates and additional validated addresses since the Census date. The population density is 0.00 persons per square kilometer. Victoria River's growth rate of 18.4% since the 2021 Census exceeds the national average of 8.9%. Natural growth contributed approximately 70.0% to overall population gains recently, with all migration factors also being positive.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimates, AreaSearch applies age cohort growth rates provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population projections indicate above-median growth for Australia's regional areas. By 2041, Victoria River is expected to have a population of 3,719, reflecting an increase of 23.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Victoria River according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Victoria River has granted around 5 residential properties approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 27 homes were approved, with none so far in FY-26. On average, 6.7 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built during these years.

This demand significantly outpaces supply, putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $380,000. In FY-26, $669,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Victoria River shows 12.0% lower construction activity per person relative to the Rest of NT and ranks among the 17th percentile nationally for areas assessed.

This indicates somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established dwellings. The area's new building activity comprises 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining its traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population count per dwelling approval is 897 people in the area. By 2041, Victoria River is forecasted to gain 723 residents according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Victoria River has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 14thth percentile nationally

Five projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig Farmlands, and Northern Territory Freight Rail And Logistics Capacity Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Victoria River face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Victoria River has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 9.7% as of September 2025. There are 1,252 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 3.9% higher than the Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 44.9%, significantly lower than the Rest of NT's 50.7%. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area is particularly specialized in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 6.1 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 10.9% of local workers, lower than the Rest of NT's 18.8%.

Over the year to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.4%, while employment declined by 1.5%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local projections suggesting Victoria River's employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.3% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Victoria River SA2 had a median income of $37,742 and an average income of $46,612 among taxpayers. This is below the national average. The Rest of NT had a median income of $51,655 and an average income of $61,577 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.01% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Victoria River would be approximately $42,275 (median) and $52,210 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Victoria River fall between the 0th and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of individuals earn between $800 - $1,499, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 band dominates at 33.6%. While housing costs are modest with 93.6% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Victoria River is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Victoria River, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.0% houses and 17.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NT had 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Victoria River was at 9.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (0.8%) or rented (89.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,409, below Non-Metro NT's average of $1,615. The median weekly rent was $75, compared to Non-Metro NT's $178. Nationally, Victoria River's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Victoria River has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 38.9% couples with children, 12.0% couples without children, and 20.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.4% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 4.1 people, larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.2.

Victoria River faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.4%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (5.7%) and certificates (25.7%). Educational participation is high, with 31.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 18.8% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 1.8% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Victoria River's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Victoria River District with both younger and older age groups having low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is found to be quite low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,432 people). This compares to 49.8% in the Rest of Northern Territory.

Nationally, this figure stands at 55.3%. Diabetes and heart disease are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.4% and 5.2% of residents respectively. A total of 79.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 78.3% across the Rest of Northern Territory. The district has 5.1% of residents aged 65 and over (158 people), which is lower than the 8.2% in the Rest of Northern Territory. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention despite being above average, indicating a need for targeted care.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Victoria River was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Victoria River had a cultural diversity above average with 3.4% of its population born overseas and 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Victoria River, comprising 73.3% of people, compared to 51.2% across Rest of NT. The top three ancestry groups were Australian Aboriginal (73.3%), Australian (9.0%), and English (7.9%).

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Victoria River are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 73.3% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.9%, Australian, comprising 9.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 17.5%, and English, comprising 7.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.4%.

Victoria River hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Victoria River is 25 years, which is younger than the Rest of NT average of 31 years and considerably younger than Australia's average age of 38 years. The 15-24 age cohort is notably over-represented in Victoria River at 19.3%, compared to the Rest of NT average, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 12.2%. This concentration of individuals aged 15-24 is well above the national average of 12.5%. Between 2021 and the present, the 5-14 age group has grown from 17.4% to 18.9% of the population, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 16.8% to 18.2%. Conversely, the 15-24 age group has declined from 21.3% to 19.3%, and the 0-4 age group has dropped from 10.5% to 8.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Victoria River's age structure, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 46%, adding 257 residents to reach a total of 820.