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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Victoria River has an estimated 3,147 residents, up from 2,609 at the 2021 Census — a change of 538 people, or 20.6%. Growth has averaged 1.4% a year over five years, faster than 91% of areas nationally. Natural increase accounts for 73.1% of that increase. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to evaluation by AreaSearch, the population of Victoria River reaches approximately 3,147 in May 2026. This indicates a rise of 538 residents (20.6%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 2,609 individuals. This shift is calculated using the ABS June 2025 estimated resident population of 3,147 combined with 2 validated new addresses identified after the Census. With this population level, the density ratio stands at 0.00 persons per square kilometer, a figure that offers substantial space per individual. The area's 20.6% expansion rate since the 2021 census outpaced the national benchmark of 9.3% as well as the state, positioning it as a local growth frontrunner.
Natural increase was the primary contributor, accounting for roughly 73.1% of the total population gains in recent times, though interstate migration, overseas migration, and all other components remained positive. AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for every SA2 locality, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. For any SA2 regions lacking this coverage, and to calculate expansion after 2032, AreaSearch projects growth rates by age cohort using the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections from 2023, based on 2022 data. Future demographic trends indicate expansion that is above the median for regional parts of Australia, with the locality projected to add 679 individuals by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a total increase of 21.6% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
27 new dwellings have been approved in Victoria River over the past five years, an average of 5 a year. That is 1.8 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 14, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this SA2 boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Victoria River averages approximately 5 residential approvals annually, with 27 dwellings approved during the last 5 financial years (FY-21 to FY-25) and 13 registered in FY-26 so far. Because an average of 7.6 individuals arrived in the area for every built home during those 5 financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), demand is outstripping supply. This imbalance generally elevates buyer competition and lifts prices, while newly built properties carry an average construction cost of $380,000. Furthermore, $669,000 in commercial building approvals have been logged in the current financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the locality.
When contrasted with the Rest of NT, the volume of building approvals per capita in Victoria River is 13.0% lower, placing it in the 17th percentile of all analyzed locations across the country. This indicates restricted opportunities for buyers and supports demand for existing properties. Construction activity is also below the national standard, pointing to an established community footprint and indicating possible regulatory or planning constraints. The mix of new residential buildings consists of 75.0% separate houses and 25.0% semi-detached dwellings or units, which preserves the historically low-density layout dominated by family-friendly properties. A ratio of 910 people per single dwelling approval highlights the quiet nature of local development. Demographic projections indicate that Victoria River will add 679 residents by 2041, starting from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch. If building activity remains at its current pace, the supply of new dwellings may not keep up with population growth, which is likely to heighten competition among buyers and support upward pressure on property values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Victoria River
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks one current infrastructure or development project inside Victoria River, worth an estimated $1.45 billion. A further 26 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $8.73 billion. 9 are already under construction and 9 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans energy, transport & logistics and environmental & disaster management. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local performance is heavily shaped by developments in regional infrastructure, major construction works, and planning updates. AreaSearch has identified 6 projects that are expected to influence the locality. The key projects include the East Kimberley Clean Energy Project, Project Sea Dragon, the Ord River Irrigation Area Expansion - Goomig and Knox Plain, and the Australia-Asia PowerLink (AAPowerLink), with the following list highlighting those of highest relevance.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Project Sea Dragon
Project Sea Dragon is a large-scale, integrated, land-based black tiger prawn aquaculture project. Following a period of voluntary administration and liquidation of its previous subsidiary, Seafarms Group Limited successfully re-acquired the project assets in December 2025 through its new subsidiary, Sea Dragon Shrimp Pty Ltd. The project involves a staged development including a founder stock centre in Exmouth, a breeding facility at Bynoe Harbour, and massive grow-out ponds at Legune Station. The developer is currently seeking project financing and a Final Investment Decision (FID) within the 2025-2026 financial year.
Halls Creek to Kununurra Bridges
Upgrade of the Great Northern Highway in the Kimberley to replace three single lane bridges at Arthur Creek, Frog Hollow Creek and Tickalara Creek with new dual lane structures and to widen about 26 km of highway between Halls Creek and Kununurra. The works improve safety and traffic flow, reduce the risk of head on crashes and cut delays caused by stopping at single lane crossings. The new bridges are designed for a 100 year flood event, improving flood resilience and reliability for freight, local communities and tourists.Tickalara Creek and Frog Hollow Creek bridges were completed and opened to traffic in 2024, with the Arthur Creek bridge delivered under the same package, and the project is now reported as complete.
Tindal Village
A workstay village with 200 en-suited rooms and amenities, located near Tindal RAAF Base to accommodate workforces for various projects in the area.
Katherine Aquatic Centre Upgrade
Major redevelopment of the Katherine Aquatic Centre including refurbishment of the existing 50 m pool, construction of a new heated 25 m six-lane program pool, splash zone, upgraded plant and filtration systems, accessibility improvements including an assisted change facility, new amenities and associated landscaping. Construction remains substantially complete with final works and commissioning following approved contract variations.
Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub
A large-scale intermodal logistics and agribusiness hub adjacent to the Darwin-Tarcoola rail corridor and Stuart Highway in Katherine East. The hub is designed to service the storage, processing and freight needs of agriculture, horticulture, resources and defence industries across the Big Rivers region and northern Australia. The NT Government and Australian Government have committed $63.2 million combined, with the 2024 NT Budget allocating a further $30 million for continuing headworks and subdivision works. Critical water supply infrastructure is under construction through a joint NT Connections package with the National Water Grid Authority, with completion expected mid-2026.Full hub construction is targeted for completion Q4 2026.
Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate)
NT Government and Australian Government enabling infrastructure project delivering serviced flood-free land in Katherine East. Stage 1 works including Corymbia Drive, earthworks, roads, stormwater, sewer and electrical infrastructure have been completed. Budget 2024 provided a further AUD16 million for a sewer pump station, sewer network and additional subdivision works to support the future release of more than 350 residential lots together with neighbourhood retail, commercial and community uses.
Katherine Solar Farm (ENI)
34MW solar farm with 6MW battery energy storage system, currently the largest photovoltaic plant in Northern Territory. Features innovative cloud coverage prediction technology and avoids 63,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually. Contributes significantly to NT's 50% renewable energy target by 2030.
RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment
Major upgrade program at RAAF Base Tindal near Katherine, NT, to enhance airbase capacity and resilience. Scope includes runway and taxiway upgrades, new air movements terminal and parking apron, expanded fuel storage, facilities for the new Triton remotely piloted drone fleet, power, water, and sewer upgrades, and 108 new live-in units for personnel. Works are being delivered under Stage 6 Redevelopment and the US Force Posture Initiatives, managed by Lendlease with packages led by contractors including BMD.
1,283 residents of Victoria River are employed, from a labour force of 1,421. Unemployment sits at 9.7%, with participation at 62.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth, so in an area growing as fast as this one it understates the likely rise in local jobs. The working-day population is estimated at 2,877, about 91% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The labor force in Victoria River is split between white-collar and blue-collar roles, with a solid presence in essential services, an unemployment rate of 9.7%, and an estimated job growth rate of 2.7% over the prior year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 1,283, while the unemployment rate was 3.8% higher than the Regional NT benchmark of 5.9%. This indicates room for labor market progress, and the participation rate of 62.3% is lower than the 69.9% seen in Regional NT. Data from the Census indicates that only 9.4% of employed residents worked from home, though this figure should be viewed alongside the influence of pandemic restrictions.
Local jobs are largely concentrated within agriculture, forestry & fishing, public administration & safety, and education & training. The region displays a strong concentration of workers in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with its share of employment reaching 6.1 times the regional average. Conversely, health care & social assistance employs only 10.9% of the local workforce, which is lower than the Regional NT average of 18.8%. A comparison of the locally employed workforce to the resident population suggests that local employment options are somewhat restricted. Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch reveals that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the count of employed individuals rose by 2.7% and the total labor force grew by 2.7%, which kept the unemployment rate steady. Over the same timeframe in Regional NT, employment expanded by 2.8%, the labor force grew by 2.7%, and the unemployment rate experienced a minor reduction. Future labor demand in Victoria River can be analyzed using JSA national employment projections from May-25. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future employment paths. Across Australia, total employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth trajectories vary by sector. Projecting these industry trends onto the current employment structure of Victoria River suggests that local jobs would rise by 5.1% in five years and 11.3% in ten years, using a basic weighted calculation for illustration that does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Victoria River is $1,095 a week (about $57,000 a year), with median personal income at $311 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $39,421 a year against an average of $48,340. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest postcode-level ATO data released for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Victoria River SA2 record a median income of $39,421 and an average income of $48,340. These figures sit below the national benchmarks, and compare to a median of $53,572 and an average of $63,776 across Regional NT. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index growth of 9.41% since the 2023 financial year yields estimated values of approximately $43,131 for the median and $52,889 for the average in March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census reveals that household, family, and individual incomes in Victoria River are situated between the 0th and 7th percentiles nationwide.
The weekly income distribution shows that 31.2% of the local population (981 people) falls within the $800 - 1,499 bracket, contrasting with the broader metropolitan area where the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the largest at 33.6%. Although residents retain 93.6% of their income due to low housing expenses, the total disposable income for the area sits at the 15th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Victoria River had 473 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 83% detached houses and 3% apartments. 1% are owned with a mortgage, 90% rented and 10% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $75 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,409 a month. Rent absorbs 6.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 29.7%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The mix of housing types in Victoria River at the time of the last Census consisted of 83.0% separate houses and 17.0% other options such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or alternative dwellings, compared to Regional NT where houses made up 75.6% and other dwellings accounted for 24.5%. Home ownership in Victoria River stood at 9.7%, which was lower than in Regional NT, with the remaining residential properties occupied by tenants (89.5%) or held under a mortgage (0.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,409 was below the Regional NT average of $1,733, and the median weekly rent of $75 was below the Regional NT level of $150.
Nationally, mortgage payments in Victoria River are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent levels are below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Victoria River counted 473 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 571 today, averaging 4.1 people each. 39% are couples with children, more than in 76% of areas nationally, against 12% couples without children. 23% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.1 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 74.2%, which is composed of couples with children at 38.9%, couples without children at 12.0%, and single parents at 20.4%. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with single-person households at 23.4% and group shared homes at 2.4%. The median household occupancy of 4.1 individuals is higher than the Regional NT average of 3.1.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
10.4% of adults in Victoria River hold a university qualification, including 7.3% with a bachelor degree and 1.9% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 97% of areas nationally. A further 25.7% hold a vocational qualification. 7 schools serve the area, with 461 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 647 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment is low in this area, with the university qualification rate of 10.4% sitting well below the national level of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for educational development programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Practical and vocational skills are common, with 31.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, which include advanced diplomas at 5.7% and certificates at 25.7%. A high proportion of the population participates in education, with 31.7% of residents enrolled in a course of study.
This group is composed of 18.8% in primary schools, 7.1% in high schools, and 1.8% enrolled in higher education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
79.5% of residents in Victoria River report no long-term health condition. 2.7% need daily assistance with core activities, and 45.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 13.7 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality patterns and the presence of long-term illnesses, Victoria River faces notable health difficulties, with common ailments present in both younger and older cohorts, and a very low private health insurance rate of roughly 46% of the population (~1,441 people). This compares to a rate of 51.6% in Regional NT and a national average of 55.7%. Diabetes and heart disease are the most prevalent diagnosed conditions in the area, affecting 8.4% and 5.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 79.5% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 78.4% across Regional NT.
Health status is strong among working-age residents, who show a low incidence of chronic illnesses. The area has 5.4% of its population aged 65 and over (170 people), which is lower than the 8.5% share in Regional NT. Health metrics for local seniors are positive, ranking higher nationally than the regional averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Victoria River is largely Australian-born, at 96.6% of residents, with 75.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian Aboriginal (73.3%) and Australian (9.0%). 73.3% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Victoria River exhibits high cultural diversity, with 3.4% of the population born outside Australia and 75.3% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 73.3% of residents in Victoria River, compared to 54.1% across Regional NT. Regarding heritage and parental birthplaces, the three largest groups in Victoria River are Australian Aboriginal at 73.3% of the population, which is higher than the regional level of 43.6%, Australian at 9.0%, which is lower than the regional level of 14.9%, and English at 7.9%, which is lower than the regional level of 14.3%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Victoria River is 25, younger than 100% of areas nationally. 37.8% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 25 years in Victoria River is younger than the Regional NT median of 31 and the national median of 38 years. Compared to Regional NT, the 5 - 14 cohort is highly represented at 19.5% of the local population, while the 35 - 44 cohort is under-represented at 11.9%. The local 5 - 14 cohort is also larger than the national average of 12.0%. Since 2021, the 25 to 34 age bracket has risen from 16.8% to 19.0% of the population, and the 5 to 14 cohort has increased from 17.4% to 19.5%.
In contrast, the 0 to 4 group decreased from 10.5% to 8.0%, and the 15 to 24 cohort fell from 21.3% to 18.8%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic models point to major shifts in the local age structure, with the 25 to 34 age bracket projected to grow the most at 40%, gaining 239 individuals to reach a total of 836.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Victoria River
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 1 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 2 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (2,609 at the 2021 Census → 3,147 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (702051068). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.