Elsey
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Elsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Elsey's population was around 2,640 as of Aug-2025, reflecting an increase of 357 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,283. This growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 2,643 in Jun-2024 and 60 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 0.00 persons per square kilometer. Elsey's growth rate of 15.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the national average of 8.6%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.1% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch applies growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population projections indicate an above median growth for Australia's regional areas. The area is expected to expand by 421 persons to 2041, with a total increase of 16.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Elsey, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey has recorded approximately eight residential properties granted approval each year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis. Over the past five financial years, between FY20 and FY25, around 40 dwellings have been approved.

No approvals have been recorded so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, 2.6 new residents per year were gained for each dwelling built, indicating strong demand which supports property values. Additionally, $5.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Compared to the Rest of NT, Elsey has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 10th percentile of areas assessed nationally.

This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity shows 67% standalone homes and 33% medium to high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. With around zero people per dwelling approval, Elsey exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Elsey will gain approximately 424 residents by 2041. Current construction levels suggest that housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Elsey has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 2ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment, 50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal, Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate), and Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Elsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey has a diverse workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 11.6%.

In this month, 968 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 5.7% higher than the Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%, indicating potential for improvement. Workforce participation in Elsey is significantly lower at 39.1%, compared to the Rest of NT's 50.7%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, education & training, and public administration & safety. Agriculture, forestry & fishing stands out with an employment share 5.7 times higher than the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance is less represented at 10.3%, compared to the regional average of 18.8%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as suggested by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over the year ending June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.8% while employment declined by 1.7%, maintaining a relatively stable unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of NT saw an employment decline of 1.7% and labour force decline of 1.8%, with a marginal decrease in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Elsey's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Elsey's median income among taxpayers is $37,742. The average income in Elsey during this period was $46,612. Both figures are below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NT had a median income of $51,655 and an average of $61,577. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.44% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest Elsey's median income would be approximately $41,682 and the average around $51,478 as of March 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, individual incomes in Elsey lag at the 1st percentile ($334 weekly), while household income performs better at the 28th percentile. The earnings profile shows that the largest segment comprises 35.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (945 residents). This is consistent with broader trends across the region showing 33.6% in the same category. Housing costs are manageable with 94.5% retained, but disposable income sits below average at the 40th percentile.

Elsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Elsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 72.3% of dwellings were houses while 27.8% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NT's 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsey stood at 16.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 4.6% and rented ones at 78.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,615. Weekly rent median in Elsey was recorded at $80, significantly below Non-Metro NT's $178 and the national figure of $375. Nationally, Elsey's mortgage repayments were notably lower than Australia's average of $1,863.

Elsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.8% of all households, including 33.6% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.2%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 3.8 people, which is larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.2.

Elsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Elsey faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 8.8%, significantly below the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (0.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (6.2%) and certificates (25.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 16.6% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education. Elsey operates a robust network of 6 schools educating approximately 386 students, consisting of 1 primary school and 5 K-12 schools.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Elsey's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Elsey, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,224 people), compared to 49.8% in the rest of NT and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are diabetes and heart disease, affecting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 77.3% report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 78.3% in the rest of NT.

Elsey has 7.2% of residents aged 65 and over (190 people), lower than the 8.2% in the rest of NT. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsey was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsey had above-average cultural diversity with 5.8% born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 52.0%. However, 'Other' religions were overrepresented at 7.5%, compared to Rest of NT's 3.6%.

In ancestry, Australian Aboriginal was highest at 67.1%, significantly higher than the regional average of 43.9%. Australian and English ancestry were lower at 10.1% and 8.9%, respectively, versus regional averages of 17.5% and 14.4%. French ethnicity was notably overrepresented at 0.4%.

Elsey hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Elsey's median age in 2021 was 29 years, lower than the Rest of NT's figure of 31 and significantly lower than Australia's national median age of 38 years. The age profile showed that those aged 15-24 were particularly prominent, making up 16.8% of Elsey's population in the 2021 Census data, while the 45-54 age group was comparatively smaller at 9.6%. Post-Census data revealed shifts in certain age groups: the 35-44 cohort grew from 13.3% to 16.0%, the 5-14 cohort declined from 16.7% to 14.8%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 10.9% to 9.6%. By 2041, Elsey's age composition is projected to see notable shifts: the 45-54 age cohort is expected to increase markedly by 130 people (52%), growing from 252 to 383 individuals. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort is projected to decline by 17 people.