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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
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Elsey has an estimated 2,695 residents, up from 2,283 at the 2021 Census — a change of 412 people, or 18.0%. Growth has averaged 0.7% a year over five years, faster than 89% of areas nationally. Overseas migration accounts for 60.2% of that increase. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
Elsey has a population of approximately 2,695 as of May 2026, according to analysis by AreaSearch. This represents a growth of 412 residents (18.0%) from the 2,283 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. The updated total is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 2,695 combined with 62 validated new addresses recorded after the Census. The resulting population density is 0.00 persons per square kilometer, indicating substantial personal space for residents. The local growth rate of 18.0% since the 2021 census outpaced the national rate of 9.3% and also exceeded state figures, positioning the area as a regional growth leader.
The expansion was largely fueled by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 60.2% of the total population increase in recent times. For each SA2 region, AreaSearch utilizes projections published by the ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024, which use 2022 as a base year. In cases where SA2 areas lack this specific data, or to project growth beyond 2032, AreaSearch applies age cohort growth rates from the latest ABS Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 using 2022 data. Future demographic patterns suggest regional areas will experience population growth above the national median, with Elsey projected to gain 389 residents by 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP statistics, representing a 14.4% total expansion over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Detail
Residential construction in Elsey is extremely quiet, averaging 3 dwelling approvals per year, or 16 approvals over a five-year period. This minimal building activity reflects the rural character of the locality, where construction projects are generally prompted by specific local housing requirements rather than broader market demand. Because these approval figures are so low, annual growth rates and comparative percentages can fluctuate significantly due to individual building projects. The volume of residential building activity in Elsey is substantially below the levels observed in Rest of NT and falls short of national averages.
Of the new construction underway, detached houses make up 67.0% and attached dwellings account for 33.0%, showing an increasing diversity of attached options that provide choices across different budgets, ranging from large family residences to more affordable, smaller properties. Long-term forecasts indicate Elsey will add 389 residents by 2041, according to the latest quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. If residential building continues at its current slow pace, housing supply might not keep up with population growth, which could increase competition among purchasers and help drive property values upward.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Elsey
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 20 current infrastructure and development projects close to Elsey, worth an estimated $7.08 billion. 8 are already under construction and 8 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans energy, environmental & disaster management and transport & logistics. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, major planning initiatives, and regional developments play a critical role in shaping the performance of an area. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to influence this locality. Prominent developments include the RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment, the construction of 50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal, the Supporting Growth in Katherine East initiative (Katherine East Residential Estate), and the Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub, with key details of the most relevant projects listed below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment
Major upgrade program at RAAF Base Tindal near Katherine, NT, to enhance airbase capacity and resilience. Scope includes runway and taxiway upgrades, new air movements terminal and parking apron, expanded fuel storage, facilities for the new Triton remotely piloted drone fleet, power, water, and sewer upgrades, and 108 new live-in units for personnel. Works are being delivered under Stage 6 Redevelopment and the US Force Posture Initiatives, managed by Lendlease with packages led by contractors including BMD.
50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal
Design and construction of 50 four-bedroom, two-bathroom houses for Defence Housing Australia (DHA) at RAAF Base Tindal.
Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate)
NT Government and Australian Government enabling infrastructure project delivering serviced flood-free land in Katherine East. Stage 1 works including Corymbia Drive, earthworks, roads, stormwater, sewer and electrical infrastructure have been completed. Budget 2024 provided a further AUD16 million for a sewer pump station, sewer network and additional subdivision works to support the future release of more than 350 residential lots together with neighbourhood retail, commercial and community uses.
Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub
A large-scale intermodal logistics and agribusiness hub adjacent to the Darwin-Tarcoola rail corridor and Stuart Highway in Katherine East. The hub is designed to service the storage, processing and freight needs of agriculture, horticulture, resources and defence industries across the Big Rivers region and northern Australia. The NT Government and Australian Government have committed $63.2 million combined, with the 2024 NT Budget allocating a further $30 million for continuing headworks and subdivision works. Critical water supply infrastructure is under construction through a joint NT Connections package with the National Water Grid Authority, with completion expected mid-2026.Full hub construction is targeted for completion Q4 2026.
Katherine Aquatic Centre Upgrade
Major redevelopment of the Katherine Aquatic Centre including refurbishment of the existing 50 m pool, construction of a new heated 25 m six-lane program pool, splash zone, upgraded plant and filtration systems, accessibility improvements including an assisted change facility, new amenities and associated landscaping. Construction remains substantially complete with final works and commissioning following approved contract variations.
Tindal Village
A workstay village with 200 en-suited rooms and amenities, located near Tindal RAAF Base to accommodate workforces for various projects in the area.
Katherine Solar Farm (ENI)
34MW solar farm with 6MW battery energy storage system, currently the largest photovoltaic plant in Northern Territory. Features innovative cloud coverage prediction technology and avoids 63,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually. Contributes significantly to NT's 50% renewable energy target by 2030.
Desert Springs Octopus Renewable Energy Program
Desert Springs Octopus is a majority Indigenous-owned company pursuing a $1 billion near-term pipeline of grid-connected solar and battery projects (100-150MW solar/30-50MWh storage near Darwin, 60-80MW solar/5-10MWh storage for mining, 10-15MW solar/2-3MWh storage for Defence) along the Darwin-Katherine Electricity System. The partnership includes Octopus Australia with Larrakia Nation and Jawoyn Association to deliver utility-scale renewable energy and community benefit sharing.
1,009 residents of Elsey are employed, from a labour force of 1,135. Unemployment sits at 11.1%, with participation at 52.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 5.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth, so in an area growing as fast as this one it understates the likely rise in local jobs. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is evenly distributed between blue-collar and white-collar occupations, with a strong presence in essential services, an unemployment rate of 11.1%, and an estimated job growth rate of 3.3% over the prior year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 1,009, while the unemployment rate was 5.2% higher than the Regional NT benchmark of 5.9%, indicating room for progress, and the participation rate of 52.7% was much lower than the 69.9% recorded across Regional NT. Census data indicates that only 11.7% of residents worked from home, although these figures may have been influenced by pandemic lockdown measures.
The major industries employing local residents are agriculture, forestry & fishing, education & training, and public administration & safety. The representation of workers in agriculture, forestry & fishing is especially high, standing at 5.7 times the regional average. Conversely, the healthcare & social assistance sector is underrepresented, employing only 10.3% of the workforce in Elsey compared to 18.8% in Regional NT. The comparison between the census working population and the resident population suggests a shortage of local employment opportunities. According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, the 12 months leading up to March 2026 saw local employment rise by 3.3% and the labour force expand by 2.7%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe in Regional NT, employment expanded by 2.8%, the labour force grew by 2.7%, and the unemployment rate decreased slightly. National employment projections from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context regarding future labor demand in Elsey. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with local employment structures to project potential patterns. Globally, national employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though prospects vary widely by industry. Projecting these national industry trends onto the local workforce mix suggests employment in Elsey could grow by 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Elsey is $1,389 a week (about $72,000 a year), with median personal income at $334 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $39,421 a year against an average of $48,340. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the most recent postcode ATO data from the 2023 financial year published by AreaSearch, tax-paying residents in the Elsey SA2 recorded a median income of $39,421 and an average income of $48,340. These figures are below national benchmarks and compare to a median of $53,572 and an average of $63,776 in Regional NT. Adjusted for the 9.41% increase in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current estimates as of March 2026 stand at roughly $43,131 for the median and $52,889 for the average. The 2021 Census indicates individual weekly incomes were low at the 0th percentile ($334 weekly), while household incomes performed relatively better at the 27th percentile.
Looking at earnings distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly bracket contains 35.8% of local earners (964 individuals), which is similar to the wider region where 33.6% fall into this range. Residents retain 94.5% of their income after housing expenses, though overall disposable income remains low at the 39th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Elsey had 458 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 72% detached houses and 6% apartments. 5% are owned with a mortgage, 79% rented and 17% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $80 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,300 a month. Rent absorbs 5.8% of household income here and mortgage repayments 21.6%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the time of the latest Census, the housing stock in Elsey consisted of 72.3% stand-alone houses and 27.8% other dwelling types such as apartments, semi-detached properties, and alternative housing, compared to 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings in Regional NT. Home ownership rates in Elsey were considerably higher than the Regional NT average, reaching 16.8%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (4.6%) or rented (78.6%). The median mortgage payment was $1,300 per month, which was well below the Regional NT average, and the median weekly rent was $80, compared to regional figures of $1,733 and $150 respectively.
On a national level, monthly mortgage costs in Elsey are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are far below the national average of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Elsey counted 458 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 541 today, averaging 3.8 people each. 34% are couples with children, against 21% couples without children. 22% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 73.8%, which includes 33.6% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 16.3% single parents. The remaining 26.2% are non-family households, consisting of single-person households at 21.5% and group households at 3.9%. The median household size stands at 3.8 people, which is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
8.8% of adults in Elsey hold a university qualification, including 6.5% with a bachelor degree and 1.7% with postgraduate qualifications, lower than 97% of areas nationally. A further 25.1% hold a vocational qualification. 6 schools serve the area, with 386 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 661 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
The region shows low levels of higher education, with university graduation rates of 8.8% tracking far below the Australian average of 30.4%. This highlights a clear opportunity for targeted educational support. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are most common at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.7% and graduate diplomas at 0.6%. Vocational and technical training is highly prevalent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (6.2%) and certificates (25.1%). A significant proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in an educational institution.
This group comprises 16.6% in primary school, 6.7% in secondary school, and 1.1% in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
77.3% of residents in Elsey report no long-term health condition. 3.9% need daily assistance with core activities, and 45.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 12.7 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Elsey experiences notable health difficulties, as indicated by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the prevalence of chronic health conditions across various age groups, while the rate of private health insurance is exceptionally low at roughly 46% of the population (~1,234 people). This is lower than the 51.6% rate in Regional NT and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent chronic health conditions locally are diabetes and heart disease, affecting 7.1 and 5.9% of the population respectively, while 77.3% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 78.4% across Regional NT.
Health outcomes for residents under the age of 65 are better than average. Residents aged 65 and over make up 8.0% of the population (215 people), and seniors in this cohort exhibit particularly strong health outcomes, ranking higher nationally than the general population.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Elsey is largely Australian-born, at 94.2% of residents, with 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are Australian Aboriginal (67.1%) and Australian (10.1%). 67.1% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Elsey shows higher than average levels of cultural diversity, with 5.8% of the population born outside Australia and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 52.0% of residents. The most distinct variance from regional norms is in the Other category, which accounts for 7.5% of the local population compared to 5.2% across Regional NT. Regarding parent birthplaces, the three largest ancestry groups in Elsey are Australian Aboriginal at 67.1% of the population, which is much higher than the regional average of 43.6%, Australian at 10.1%, and English at 8.9%, which is lower than the regional average of 14.3%.
Other distinct ancestral representations include French heritage, which is slightly overrepresented at 0.4% in Elsey compared to 0.3% across the wider region.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Elsey is 29, younger than 98% of areas nationally. 35.9% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of residents is 29, which is slightly younger than the Regional NT median of 31 and significantly younger than the Australian median of 38 years. The demographic profile features a high proportion of 15 - 24 year-olds (16.5%), while the 45 - 54 age bracket is smaller (9.1%) than in Regional NT. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 13.3% to 16.7% of the population. In contrast, the 5 to 14 age group has shrunk from 16.7% to 14.0% and the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 10.9% to 9.1%.
By 2041, the age distribution is projected to change, with the 45 to 54 cohort increasing by 129 people (53%) from 246 to 376, while the 5 to 14 cohort is expected to grow by only 1% (2 people).
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Elsey
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the SA2 boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 62 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (2,283 at the 2021 Census → 2,695 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (702051065). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.