Elsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Elsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Elsey's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 2,643 people. This figure represents a 15.8% increase from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,283. The growth was inferred using ABS estimates and validated new addresses since the Census date. Elsey's population density as of June 2024 is 0.00 persons per square kilometer. The area's 15.8% growth since the 2021 census surpassed both the national average (9.9%) and state averages, indicating strong growth in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57.1% of Elsey's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch applies age cohort-based growth rates provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends project an above median growth for regional areas nationally. By 2041, Elsey's population is expected to increase by 421 persons, reflecting a total increase of 15.9% over the 17-year period, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Elsey, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey had 16 dwelling approvals over five years, averaging three annually. This minimal activity is typical in rural areas due to modest housing needs and limited demand and infrastructure capacity. Note that small sample sizes can significantly influence annual growth statistics.

Elsey's construction activity was notably lower than the Rest of NT and below national patterns. Detached houses accounted for 67% of new building activity, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 33%. This mix included townhouses and apartments, offering varied price points from family homes to more affordable compact living.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Elsey's population is forecasted to increase by 421 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Elsey has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones including RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment, 50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal, Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate), and Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Elsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, and the unemployment rate is 11.4%. As of September 2025, there are 983 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, which is higher than Rest of NT's rate of 5.9%.

Workforce participation in Elsey is lower at 52.8% compared to Rest of NT's 70.4%. According to Census responses, only 11.7% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are agriculture, forestry & fishing, education & training, and public administration & safety. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 5.7 times more people than the regional average.

In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 10.3% of local workers, lower than Rest of NT's 18.8%. The area may have limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.0%, with employment decreasing by 1.0%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Elsey's employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Elsey's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Elsey SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $39,421 and an average of $48,340. This is below the national average. Comparatively, Rest of NT had a median income of $53,572 and an average of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,748 (median) and $52,420 (average). Census 2021 income data shows individual incomes at the 0th percentile were $334 weekly, while household incomes were at the 27th percentile. The largest income segment comprised 35.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, with 946 residents in this bracket, mirroring regional levels where 33.6% occupied this bracket. Housing costs saw 94.5% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 39th percentile.

Elsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census data shows that in Elsey, 72.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 27.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NT had 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsey stood at 16.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 4.6% and rented ones at 78.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NT's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Elsey was $80, compared to Non-Metro NT's $150. Nationally, Elsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Elsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.8% of all households, including 33.6% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.2%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 3.8 people, larger than the Rest of NT average of 3.1.

Elsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.8%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (0.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 6.2% and certificates at 25.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 16.6% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 1.1% in tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Elsey is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Elsey faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,210 people), compared to 51.6% across Rest of NT, and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are diabetes and heart disease, impacting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents respectively, while 77.3% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 78.4% across Rest of NT.

The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. As of 2021, the area has 7.8% of residents aged 65 and over (205 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsey was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsey's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 5.8% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Elsey, comprising 52.0% of its people. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which made up 7.5% of Elsey's population compared to 5.2% across the rest of the Northern Territory.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were Australian Aboriginal at 67.1%, Australian at 10.1%, and English at 8.9%. Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%, while English representation was notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%. There were also notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, with French being notably overrepresented at 0.4% of Elsey's population compared to 0.3% regionally.

Elsey hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Elsey has a median age of 29, which is lower than the Rest of NT figure of 31 and significantly lower than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 15-24 are particularly prominent at 16.3%, while the 45-54 group is comparatively smaller at 9.3% compared to the Rest of NT. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.3% to 16.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 16.7% to 13.8%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 10.9% to 9.3%. By 2041, Elsey is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45 to 54 age cohort projected to increase markedly by 136 people (55%) from 246 to 383. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 cohort grows by a modest 2% (7 people).