Elsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Elsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Elsey's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 2,695. This figure represents an increase of 412 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,283. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,695 in June 2025 and an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 0 persons per square kilometer. Elsey's growth rate of 18.0% since the 2021 census exceeds both national (9.3%) and state averages, making it a notable growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimates, AreaSearch applies age cohort-based growth rates provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future population trends indicate an above median growth for regional areas nationally. By 2041, Elsey's population is projected to increase by 389 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Elsey, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey had 16 dwelling approvals over five years, averaging three annually. This low activity is typical in rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction due to local demand and infrastructure capacity. Note that the small sample size can significantly influence annual growth statistics.

Elsey's construction activity is notably lower than Rest of NT and national patterns. New building activity consists of 67% detached houses and 33% medium-high density housing, with increasing townhouses and apartments for varied price points. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate forecasts Elsey gaining 389 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Elsey has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Eleven projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with key ones including the RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment, 50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal, Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate), and Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Elsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey has a balanced workforce consisting of white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 11.5% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.9%.

There are 996 residents in work currently, but the unemployment rate is higher than Regional NT's rate by 5.4%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags significantly at 52.3% compared to Regional NT's 69.3%. Only 11.7% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, education & training, and public administration & safety.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing is particularly notable with employment levels at 5.7 times the regional average. However, health care & social assistance employs only 10.3% of local workers, below Regional NT's 18.8%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.9%, while labour force increased by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NT saw employment rise by 0.7% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Elsey's employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment profile.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Elsey SA2 has lower income compared to national averages. The median income is $39,421 and the average is $48,340. In contrast, Regional NT has a median income of $53,572 and an average of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.41% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $43,131 (median) and $52,889 (average). The 2021 Census data shows individual incomes at the 0th percentile are $334 weekly, while household income is at the 27th percentile. In Elsey SA2, 35.8% of locals (964 people) have incomes between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to the broader area where 33.6% fall into this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 94.5% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 39th percentile.

Elsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Elsey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.3% houses and 27.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Elsey stood at 16.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (4.6%) or rented (78.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional NT's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Elsey was $80, compared to Regional NT's $150. Nationally, Elsey's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Elsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 73.8% of all households, including 33.6% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.2%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 3.8 people, larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Elsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.8%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (0.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (6.2%) and certificates (25.1%). Educational participation is high at 28.8%, comprising primary education (16.6%), secondary education (6.7%), and tertiary education (1.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 16.6% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Elsey is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Elsey faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,234 people), compared to 51.6% in Regional NT and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are diabetes (7.1%) and heart disease (5.9%). 77.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 78.4% across Regional NT. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. As of June 20XX, the area has 8.0% of residents aged 65 and over (215 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsey was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsey's cultural diversity is above average, with 5.8% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Elsey, comprising 52.0% of its population. The most notable overrepresentation is seen in the 'Other' category, which makes up 7.5% of Elsey's population compared to the regional average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian Aboriginal is the largest group in Elsey at 67.1%, significantly higher than the regional average of 43.6%. Australians comprise 10.1% of Elsey's population, while English ancestry makes up 8.9%, notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%. Notably, French ethnicity is overrepresented in Elsey at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 0.3%.

Elsey hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Elsey's median age is 29, lower than Regional NT's 31 and Australia's 38 years. The 15-24 age group makes up 16.5%, while the 45-54 group comprises 9.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35-44 age group grew from 13.3% to 16.7%, the 5-14 cohort declined from 16.7% to 14.0%, and the 45-54 group decreased from 10.9% to 9.1%. By 2041, Elsey's age composition is projected to shift notably. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to increase markedly by 129 people (53%), growing from 246 to 376. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort grows by a modest 1% (2 people).