Elsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in Elsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Elsey's population is around 2,643 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 360 people (15.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,283 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,643 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 62 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 0.00 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Elsey's 15.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the national average (9.9%) and the state average, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 57.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is applying growth rates by age cohort to each area, as provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for regional areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to expand by 421 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 15.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Elsey, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey shows minimal construction activity with 3 new dwellings approved annually (16 approvals over five years). Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. Note: the small sample size means that individual development projects can substantially influence annual growth and relativity statistics.

Elsey shows significantly less construction activity than the Rest of NT. This activity level is similarly below national patterns. New building activity consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points, from family homes to more affordable compact living.

Population forecasts indicate Elsey will gain 421 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Elsey has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 7thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the RAAF Base Tindal Redevelopment, 50 New Houses at RAAF Base Tindal, Supporting Growth in Katherine East (Katherine East Residential Estate), and the Katherine Logistics and Agribusiness Hub, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Elsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Elsey features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 11.5%, and 0.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025996 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 5.4% above Regional NT's rate of 6.1%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (53.6% compared to Regional NT's 71.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 11.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, education & training, and public administration & safety. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 5.7 times the regional average. In contrast, health care & social assistance employs just 10.3% of local workers, below Regional NT's 18.8%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.9% while labour force increased by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NT, where employment rose by 0.7%, the labour force grew by 1.1%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Elsey. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Elsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.1% over five years and 11.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Elsey SA2 is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $39,421 while the average income stands at $48,340. This contrasts with Regional NT's figures of a median income of $53,572 and an average income of $63,776. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.44% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $42,748 (median) and $52,420 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, individual incomes lag at the 0th percentile ($334 weekly), while household income performs better at the 27th percentile. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 35.8% of locals (946 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, mirroring the broader area where 33.6% occupy this bracket. Housing costs are manageable with 94.5% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 39th percentile.

Elsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Elsey, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 72.3% houses and 27.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NT's 75.6% houses and 24.5% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Elsey was well beyond that of Regional NT, at 16.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (4.6%) or rented (78.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NT average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $80, compared to Regional NT's $1,733 and $150. Nationally, Elsey's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Elsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 73.8% of all households, comprising 33.6% couples with children, 21.3% couples without children, and 16.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.2%, with lone person households at 21.5% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size of 3.8 people is larger than the Regional NT average of 3.1.

Elsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (8.8%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.7%) and graduate diplomas (0.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (6.2%) and certificates (25.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 16.6% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 1.1% pursuing tertiary education.

No public transport data available for this catchment area.

Health performance in Elsey is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Elsey faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,210 people). This compares to 51.6% across Regional NT. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are diabetes and heart disease, impacting 7.1 and 5.9% of residents, respectively, while 77.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 78.4% across Regional NT. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 7.8% of residents aged 65 and over (205 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Elsey was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Elsey was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 5.8% of its population born overseas and 74.2% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Elsey is Christianity, which makes up 52.0% of people in Elsey. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 7.5% of the population, compared to 5.2% across Regional NT.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Elsey are Australian Aboriginal, comprising 67.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 43.6%, Australian, comprising 10.1% of the population, and English, comprising 8.9% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 14.3%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: French is notably overrepresented at 0.4% of Elsey (vs 0.3% regionally).

Elsey hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 29, Elsey is somewhat lower than the Regional NT figure of 31 as well as significantly lower than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 15 - 24 year-olds are particularly prominent (16.3%), while the 45 - 54 group is comparatively smaller (9.3%) than in Regional NT. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 13.3% to 16.6% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 16.7% to 13.8% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 10.9% to 9.3%. By 2041, Elsey is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to increase markedly, expanding by 136 people (55%) from 246 to 383. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 cohort grows by a modest 2% (7 people).