Aranda

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aranda reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Aranda's population was approximately 2,580 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 25 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 2,605. The estimated resident population of 2,582 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date suggest this decline. This results in a population density ratio of 1,653 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections, also based on 2022, were used. Future population dynamics anticipate a decline in overall population, with projections indicating a contraction of 319 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 45 to 54 age group, projected to increase by 4 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Aranda according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Aranda has seen approximately 9 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 49 homes were approved, with an additional one approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.8 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections. The average value of new homes being constructed is $314,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, Aranda has recorded $1.2 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Aranda has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person.

Nationally, it ranks among the 60th percentile of areas assessed for new dwelling approvals. New building activity in Aranda consists of 57% standalone homes and 43% townhouses or apartments, indicating an expanding range of medium-density options. This mix caters to various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 87% houses. This trend may be due to decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles, reflecting a need for diverse and affordable housing options. Aranda has around 260 people per dwelling approval, suggesting characteristics of a low-density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Aranda may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Aranda has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major undertakings, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Bruce Precinct (Section 15), Bruce Residential Development Zone, Bruce Commercial Centre Expansion, and New Northside Hospital (North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment). The following list outlines those likely to be most pertinent.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Aranda well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Aranda has a highly educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, lower than the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) 3.6%.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 2.8%. As of September 2025, 1,337 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below ACT's rate. Workforce participation in Aranda was 64.2%, compared to ACT's 69.6%. Leading employment industries among Aranda residents include public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services.

The area specializes in education & training, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Health care & social assistance employs 9.5% of local workers, below ACT's 11.7%. Analysis from September 2025 shows employment increased by 2.8%, while labour force grew by 0.8%, leading to a 1.9 percentage point decrease in unemployment rate. This contrasts with ACT where employment rose by 1.4% and unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 indicates ACT employment grew by 1.19% year-on-year, adding 710 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Aranda's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Aranda SA2 has one of the highest income levels nationally according to AreaSearch data from the ATO for the financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Aranda is $76,660 and the average income stands at $96,204. This compares to figures for the Australian Capital Territory of $68,678 and $83,634 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 13.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $87,086 (median) and $109,288 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Aranda rank highly nationally, with household, family and personal incomes all between the 96th and 98th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the $4000+ bracket dominates with 37.1% of residents (957 people), contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 34.3%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 52.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 90.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Aranda is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Aranda, as per the latest Census data, 87.3% of dwellings were houses while 12.7% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This compares to the Australian Capital Territory's figures of 69.4% houses and 30.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aranda stood at 44.7%, with mortgaged properties making up 38.8% and rented dwellings accounting for 16.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than the Australian Capital Territory average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Aranda was recorded at $530 compared to the Australian Capital Territory's $430. Nationally, Aranda's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aranda features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 78.7% of all households, including 39.6% couples with children, 30.2% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households making up 4.9%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Aranda places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Aranda is notably high, with 62.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data. This compares to national figures of 30.4% for Australia and 43.8% for the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 24.5% and graduate diplomas at 7.3%. Vocational pathways account for 16.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.1% and certificates also at 8.1%.

Educational participation is high in the area, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest figures. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 7.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 13 active stops operating in Aranda, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 4 individual routes, offering a total of 211 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 228 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Aranda is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Aranda demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. However, this prevalence is higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover in Aranda is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (1,787 people), compared to 57.1% across the Australian Capital Territory and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively, while 70.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 68.1% across the Australian Capital Territory. Aranda has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 19.6% (505 people), compared to the 15.3% in the Australian Capital Territory, which may require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Aranda was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aranda has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 26.5% born overseas. Christianity is the main religion in Aranda, making up 31.0% of its population. However, Judaism is overrepresented, comprising 0.4% compared to 0.1% across Australian Capital Territory.

The top three ancestry groups are English (26.3%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Notably, Polish (1.1%) Welsh (0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4%) ethnicities are also overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

Aranda's median age exceeds the national pattern

Aranda's median age is 42, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory figure of 35 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory average, Aranda has a notably over-represented 5-14 cohort (15.1% locally) while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented (10.0%). From 2021 to present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.7% to 12.9%, and the 45-54 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Aranda's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand by 6 people (2%) from 362 to 369, while both the 85+ and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.