Aranda

An assessment of population growth drivers in Aranda reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Aranda's population was approximately 2,584 as of November 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 21 people from the 2021 Census count of 2,605. The decline is inferred from the estimated resident population of 2,582 in June 2024 and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was around 1,656 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 77.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, age group growth rates from the ACT Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, also based on 2022. Future population trends indicate an overall decline by 319 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts like the 45 to 54 group are projected to grow by 4 people during this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Aranda according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Aranda has received approximately 9 dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 49 homes were approved, with one more approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.8 new residents per year have arrived for each new home over these five years.

This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing buyers with more options and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average value of new homes being built is $314,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY26, Aranda has recorded $1.2 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to the Australian Capital Territory, Aranda has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 60th percentile nationally.

Regarding building activity, 57% are standalone homes while 43% are townhouses or apartments, showing an increasing range of medium-density options across various price brackets. This shift represents a notable change from Aranda's current housing composition, which is predominantly houses (87%). This indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects evolving lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 260 people per dwelling approval, Aranda exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Aranda may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Aranda has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

No changes were identified by AreaSearch that could potentially affect the region's performance. Key projects include Bruce Precinct Section 15, Bruce Residential Development Zone, Bruce Commercial Centre Expansion, and New Northside Hospital, which is part of the North Canberra Hospital Redevelopment. The following list outlines those projects likely to have the most significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Aranda well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Aranda has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.8%. As of September 2025, 1,337 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.7% lower than the Australian Capital Territory's rate of 3.6%.

Workforce participation stood at 66.4%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 72.5%. According to Census responses, 16.7% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries included public administration & safety, education & training, and professional & technical services. The area had a particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance employed only 9.5% of local workers, below the Australian Capital Territory's 11.7%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.8%, while the labour force grew by 0.8%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 1.9 percentage points. In contrast, Australian Capital Territory saw employment rise by 1.4%, with a labour force growth of 1.2% and a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Aranda's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not consider localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The Aranda SA2 had one of the highest income levels nationally according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $81,229 and average income stood at $99,921. This compares to Australian Capital Territory's figures of $72,206 and $85,981 respectively. Based on a 9.26% growth in wages since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $88,751 (median) and $109,174 (average). Census 2021 data shows Aranda's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 96th and 98th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 37.1% of residents (958 people) fall into the $4000+ bracket, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 34.3%. Higher earners make up a substantial presence, with 52.6% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 90.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Aranda is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Aranda, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.3% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 12.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to the Australian Capital Territory's (ACT) dwelling structure of 63.3% houses and 36.7% other dwellings. Home ownership in Aranda stood at 44.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 38.8% and rented ones at 16.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Aranda was $2,500, higher than the ACT average of $2,080. The median weekly rent figure in Aranda was $530 compared to the ACT's $450. Nationally, Aranda's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Aranda features high concentrations of group households and family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 78.7% of all households, consisting of 39.6% couples with children, 30.2% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 21.3%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 4.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Australian Capital Territory average of 2.5.

Educational achievement in Aranda places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

Educational attainment in Aranda is notably high, with 62.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This compares to a national average of 30.4% and an SA3 area average of 43.8%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (24.5%) and graduate diplomas (7.3%). Vocational pathways account for 16.2% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 8.1% and certificates also 8.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 7.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Aranda shows that there are currently 13 operational transport stops. These include a mix of light rail and bus services. A total of 52 individual routes operate through these stops, collectively facilitating 2,735 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically residing 232 meters away from the nearest stop. As Aranda is predominantly residential, most residents commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 79% of residents, while 10% use buses and 7% cycle.

On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 16.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 390 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 210 weekly trips per individual stop.

Aranda's residents are extremely healthy with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Aranda, based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be low, particularly among younger cohorts. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (1,819 people), compared to 62.4% across Australian Capital Territory and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.7 and 7.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 70.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.2% across Australian Capital Territory. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 19.6% of residents aged 65 and over (505 people), which is higher than the 14.1% in Australian Capital Territory but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Aranda was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Aranda's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home and 26.5% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion in Aranda, accounting for 31.0%. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to the Australian Capital Territory's 0.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (26.3%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.0%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Polish was overrepresented at 1.1% versus the regional average of 0.8%, Welsh at 0.8% compared to 0.6%, and Hungarian at 0.4% against the region's 0.3%.

Aranda's median age exceeds the national pattern

Aranda's median age is 42, which is higher than the Australian Capital Territory figure of 35 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the ACT average, Aranda has a notably over-represented 5-14 cohort (15.1% locally) and an under-represented 25-34 age group (10.0%). Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group grew from 11.7% to 12.9%, while the 45-54 cohort increased from 13.0% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.0% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Aranda's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand by 5 people (2%), growing from 363 to 369. Conversely, both the 85+ and 65-74 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.