Carnarvon

Carnarvon has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Carnarvon's population is approximately 5,262 as of November 2025. This represents an increase of 383 people, a 7.8% rise from the 4,879 recorded in the 2021 Census. The growth can be inferred from ABS estimates; 5,253 residents were reported in June 2024, with an additional eight validated addresses since then. This results in a population density of 67 persons per square kilometer. Carnarvon's growth exceeded its SA4 region's average (7.6%) between the 2021 Census and November 2025. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.4% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 growth estimation, AreaSearch employs ABS-provided growth rates by age cohort from its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Based on demographic trends, Carnarvon is expected to grow by approximately 543 persons by 2041. This projection reflects a total gain of 10.2% over the seventeen-year period from November 2025 to 2041, using the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnarvon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carnarvon has seen approximately 11 dwellings receive development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 56 homes were approved, with none yet approved in FY-26. On average, 2.1 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $431,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $21.7 million in commercial approvals registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of WA, Carnarvon records significantly lower building activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has recently intensified. Nationally, Carnarvon's level is also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 79.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 714 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts suggest Carnarvon will gain 534 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnarvon has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Shire of Carnarvon Local Planning Scheme 13 Amendment 6, HyEnergy Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project, Regional And Rural Wa Road Network Safety Improvements, and WA Regional Digital Connectivity Program (WARDCP).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Carnarvon lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Carnarvon's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.2% as of September 2025.

This is 3.9 percentage points higher than the Rest of WA's rate of 3.3%. Workforce participation stood at 54.6%, lower than the Rest of WA's 59.4%. Key employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs 2.1 times the regional average.

Conversely, mining employs just 5.8% of local workers, lower than Rest of WA's 11.7%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Carnarvon's labour force increased by 0.7%, while employment declined by 0.3%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment rise by 1.4% and unemployment fall by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnarvon's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Carnarvon SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $51,900 and an average of $63,406. These figures are slightly below the national averages of $57,323 and $71,163 respectively for Rest of WA. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,270 and $72,410 respectively. Census 2021 income data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Carnarvon rank modestly, between the 30th and 45th percentiles. Income distribution shows 29.8% of residents (1,568 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing costs are manageable with 88.3% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 35th percentile.

Carnarvon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census showed that in Carnarvon, 79.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 21.0% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In comparison, Non-Metro WA had 76.7% houses and 23.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnarvon stood at 31.9%, similar to Non-Metro WA's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 23.4%, while rented dwellings made up 44.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Carnarvon was $1,300, lower than the Non-Metro WA average of $1,733 and significantly below the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Carnarvon was $215, compared to $240 in Non-Metro WA and $375 nationally.

Carnarvon features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.1% of all households, including 22.9% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

Carnarvon faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 32.2%. Educational participation is high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.0% in primary, 9.3% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Carnarvon shows that there are 46 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 3 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 45 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of the transport system is rated as good, with residents on average located approximately 299 meters away from their nearest transport stop. On average, each route provides around 6 trips per day, which equates to roughly 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnarvon's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Carnarvon residents show relatively positive health outcomes with common conditions prevalent across young and elderly populations.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51%, slightly lower than the average SA2 area (~2,694 people). The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.5%). Around 71.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.5% in Rest of WA. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.7% (879 people), compared to 13.9% in Rest of WA. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carnarvon was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnarvon's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 21.9% born overseas and 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnarvon, accounting for 50.8% of its population. Buddhism stands out as overrepresented in Carnarvon at 2.7%, compared to 2.0% across the rest of WA.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (27.5%), English (22.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.1%). Notably, Croatian (2.2%) and Vietnamese (2.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Carnarvon compared to regional averages of 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Korean ethnicity is also slightly overrepresented at 0.3%.

Carnarvon's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Carnarvon is 40 years, which matches the average for the Rest of WA but slightly exceeds the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 14.3%, while those aged 75-84 comprise a smaller proportion at 4.6% compared to the Rest of WA. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 11.5% to 13.0%, and the 25-34 age group increased from 13.2% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 age cohort has decreased from 14.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Carnarvon's age structure. The number of individuals aged 25-34 is projected to increase by 259 people (35%), from 750 to 1,010. Conversely, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.