Carnarvon

Carnarvon has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, Carnarvon's population is approximately 5,306, reflecting an increase of 427 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents an 8.8% rise from the previous population count of 4,879. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures: 5,306 as of June 2025 and an additional 47 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer. Carnarvon's growth rate of 8.8% since the 2021 census exceeds the SA4 region average of 8.2%, indicating it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 74.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate post-2032 growth, AreaSearch uses growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Looking ahead with current demographic trends, Carnarvon is expected to grow by approximately 530 persons by 2041. This projection reflects a total gain of 10.0% over the 16-year period, based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnarvon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carnarvon has seen approximately 11 dwellings receive development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY2021 to FY2025, a total of 56 homes have been approved, with no approvals yet in FY2026. On average, 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $431,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY2026, commercial approvals totaling $21.7 million have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of WA, Carnarvon records significantly lower building activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has intensified recently. The recent construction mix comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a considerable change from the current housing mix of 79.0% houses. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 714 people, reflecting Carnarvon's quiet, low activity development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 530 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnarvon has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 35thth percentile nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Shire of Carnarvon Local Planning Scheme 13 Amendment 6, HyEnergy Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project. Additionally, Regional And Rural Wa Road Network Safety Improvements and WA Regional Digital Connectivity Program (WARDCP) are also key projects in the region.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Carnarvon lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Carnarvon's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in the past year, showing a growth of 0.8%. As of December 2025, 2,545 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, higher than Regional WA's 3.5%.

Workforce participation was 63.8%, below Regional WA's 66.0%. Census data indicated that only 10.8% of residents worked from home. Dominant employment sectors included agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had a notable concentration with levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Mining had limited presence, with 5.8% employment compared to Regional WA's 11.7%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between December 2024 and January 2026, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force grew by 2.5%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional WA had employment growth of 1.0% and labour force growth of 1.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnarvon's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending 2023, Carnarvon SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,122 and an average income of $64,661. These figures are below the national averages of $59,973 and $74,392 for Regional WA respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.93% since financial year ending 2023, estimated median income is approximately $58,928 and average income is around $71,728 as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household incomes rank at the 40th percentile, family incomes at the 39th percentile, and personal incomes at the 37th percentile in Carnarvon. Income distribution shows that 29.8% of locals (1,581 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region's 31.1%. Housing costs consume 11.7%, leaving disposable income below average at the 35th percentile.

Carnarvon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Carnarvon, as recorded in the latest Census, 79.1% of dwellings were houses while 21.0% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Regional WA's figures of 88.5% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnarvon stood at 31.9%, with mortgaged properties at 23.4% and rented dwellings at 44.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, below Regional WA's average of $1,560. Median weekly rent in Carnarvon was $215, lower than Regional WA's $265. Nationally, Carnarvon's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carnarvon features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 64.1% of all households, including 22.9% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Regional WA average of 2.5.

Carnarvon faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 16.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (32.2%). Educational participation is high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnarvon has 46 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by three routes, offering a total of 45 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good, with residents on average 299 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Cars are the primary mode of transport at 80%, followed by walking at 10% and cycling at 3%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 10.8% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages six trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carnarvon is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carnarvon faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,716 people), compared to 56.4% across Regional WA. The most common medical conditions in the area were arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.0 and 6.5% of residents respectively. 71.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.3% across Regional WA. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (904 people), lower than the 19.2% in Regional WA. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carnarvon was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnarvon's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 21.9% born overseas and 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnarvon, accounting for 50.8% of its population. Notably, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Regional WA, comprising 2.7% versus 1.0%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (27.5%) and English (22.1%) are the top groups, though English is lower than the regional average of 31.3%. Australian Aboriginal ancestry is substantially higher at 14.1%, compared to Regional WA's 6.1%. Some ethnic groups show notable divergences: Croatian (2.2% vs 0.3%), Vietnamese (2.5% vs 0.1%), and Korean (0.3% vs 0.1%) are overrepresented in Carnarvon.

Carnarvon's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Carnarvon is 40 years, which matches the average for Regional WA but is slightly higher than the national average of 38 years. The age distribution shows that those aged 25-34 are notably prevalent at 15.0%, while those aged 75-84 are relatively smaller at 4.9% compared to Regional WA. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of people aged 25-34 has increased from 13.2% to 15.0%, while those aged 35-44 have risen from 11.5% to 12.7%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 14.8% to 12.3%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Carnarvon's age structure. The number of people aged 25-34 is projected to increase by 233 (29%), from 796 to 1,030. Meanwhile, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in size.