Carnarvon
Statistical Area - sa2

Carnarvon has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Carnarvon's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 5,259 by August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 380 individuals, a rise of 7.8%, since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 4,879. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,253 in June 2024 and seven validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Carnarvon's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (7.6%) between the 2021 Census and June 2024, marking it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.4% of overall population gains during this period.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch utilizes growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Based on demographic trends and the latest population numbers, Carnarvon is expected to grow by approximately 543 persons by 2041, representing a total gain of 10.2% over the seventeen years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnarvon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carnarvon has experienced approximately 11 dwelling developments receiving approval annually. Development approval data, sourced from the ABS on a financial year basis, shows 56 homes approved over the past five years (FY21 to FY25), with no approvals recorded so far in FY26. On average, 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed annually during these five years, indicating strong demand which supports property values. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $436,000.

In FY26, commercial approvals totaling $21.7 million have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of WA, Carnarvon records significantly lower building activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has recently intensified. This level is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (79.0%). The estimated population density of 714 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Carnarvon will gain approximately 537 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnarvon has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting the region: Shire of Carnarvon Local Planning Scheme 13 Amendment 6, HyEnergy Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project. Other notable initiatives include Regional And Rural WA Road Network Safety Improvements and WA Regional Digital Connectivity Program (WARDCP).

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Carnarvon face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnarvon has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.0%.

In June 2025, 2,473 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.8% higher than Rest of WA's rate of 3.2%. Workforce participation in Carnarvon is lower at 54.6%, compared to Rest of WA's 59.4%. Key employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has notably high concentration with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Mining employs only 5.8% of local workers, lower than Rest of WA's 11.7%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. From May 2024 to June 2025, labour force decreased by 2.2%, employment declined by 2.8%, resulting in a rise of unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment rise by 1.1% and unemployment fall by 0.6%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnarvon's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2022, Carnarvon had a median income among taxpayers of $51,900 and an average level of $63,406. These figures are just below the national average. In comparison, Rest of WA had median and average incomes of $57,323 and $71,163 respectively. By March 2025, estimated current incomes would be approximately $57,926 (median) and $70,767 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 11.61% since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Carnarvon rank modestly between the 30th and 45th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 29.8% of Carnarvon's population (1,567 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the regional average of 31.1%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.3% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 36th percentile.

Carnarvon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carnarvon's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 79.1% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro WA's 76.7% houses and 23.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnarvon was 31.9%, aligning with Non-Metro WA's figure. Dwellings were either mortgaged (23.4%) or rented (44.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro WA's average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Carnarvon was $215, lower than Non-Metro WA's $240 and the national figure of $375.

Carnarvon features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 64.1% of all households, including 22.9% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

Carnarvon faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 16.7%, substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.5% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 32.2%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 15.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of six schools operates within Carnarvon, educating approximately 847 students. The educational mix includes two primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnarvon has 46 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These are served by a mix of bus routes totalling three individual services. Together, these provide 45 weekly passenger trips across the city.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 299 meters from their nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages six trips per day across all routes, resulting in roughly zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnarvon's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Health data shows Carnarvon residents have relatively positive health outcomes with common conditions seen across both young and old age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,692 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (6.5%). A majority, 71.8%, report no medical ailments, compared to 74.5% in Rest of WA. Carnarvon has a higher percentage of residents aged 65 and over at 16.7% (878 people) than Rest of WA's 13.9%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carnarvon was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnarvon's population shows above-average cultural diversity, with 21.9% born overseas and 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnarvon, comprising 50.8% of its population. Notably, Buddhism is overrepresented compared to the rest of WA, accounting for 2.7% of Carnarvon's population versus 2.0%.

The top three ancestral groups are Australian (27.5%), English (22.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.1%). Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Croatian at 2.2% (versus 1.3% regionally), Vietnamese at 2.5% (versus 1.2%), and Korean at 0.3% (versus 0.2%).

Carnarvon's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Carnarvon is 40 years, matching the Rest of WA's average but slightly higher than the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are notably prominent, comprising 14.3% of the population, while those aged 75-84 make up a smaller proportion at 4.6%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of people aged 35-44 has grown from 11.5% to 13.0%, and the 25-34 age group has increased from 13.2% to 14.3%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 14.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Carnarvon's age structure. The number of individuals aged 25-34 is projected to increase by 260 people (35%), rising from 749 to 1,010. Meanwhile, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in size.