Carnarvon
Statistical Area - sa2

Carnarvon has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Carnarvon's population was approximately 5,262 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 383 people, a 7.8% rise from the 4,879 recorded in the 2021 Census. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 5,253 as of June 2024 and eight validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer, indicating ample space per person and potential for further development. Carnarvon's growth rate surpassed that of its SA4 region (7.6%), positioning it as a growth leader within the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 65.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth post-2032, AreaSearch uses ABS-provided growth rates by age cohort from its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Future demographic trends suggest a population increase just below Australia's non-metropolitan median, with an expected growth of 543 persons to 2041. This would result in a total gain of 10.2% over the seventeen-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnarvon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carnarvon has seen approximately 11 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 56 homes were approved, with none yet in FY26. On average, 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $431,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $21.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of WA, Carnarvon records significantly lower building activity, 64.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, although construction activity has intensified recently. The recent construction mix comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current housing mix of 79.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 714 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts suggest Carnarvon will gain 534 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnarvon has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 25thth percentile nationally

The area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified two projects that are likely to impact the area: Shire of Carnarvon Local Planning Scheme 13 Amendment 6, HyEnergy Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project, Regional And Rural Wa Road Network Safety Improvements, and WA Regional Digital Connectivity Program (WARDCP). The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Carnarvon face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Carnarvon's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate stands at 7.0%.

As of June 2025, 2,473 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.8%, higher than the Rest of WA's rate of 3.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.6% compared to Rest of WA's 59.4%. Dominant employment sectors include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has a notable concentration with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average.

Mining employs only 5.8% of local workers, below Rest of WA's 11.7%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population counts. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 2.2%, employment declined by 2.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment rise by 1.1%, labour force grow by 0.5%, and unemployment fall by 0.6 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carnarvon's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Carnarvon had a median taxpayer income of $51,900 and an average income of $63,406. These figures are slightly below the national averages of $57,323 and $71,163 respectively in Rest of WA. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Carnarvon as of September 2025 are approximately $59,270 and $72,410 respectively. Census 2021 data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Carnarvon rank modestly, between the 30th and 45th percentiles. Income distribution shows 29.8% of residents (1,568 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to the regional average of 31.1%. Housing costs are manageable with 88.3% retained, but disposable income is below average at the 36th percentile.

Carnarvon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Carnarvon's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 79.1% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro WA had 76.7% houses and 23.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carnarvon was 31.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.4% and rented dwellings at 44.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro WA's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Carnarvon was $215, compared to Non-Metro WA's $240. Nationally, Carnarvon's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863, and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carnarvon features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.1% of all households, consisting of 22.9% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

Carnarvon faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.7%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are held by 40.7% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 32.2%. Educational participation is high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: primary (15.0%), secondary (9.3%), and tertiary (1.9%).

Carnarvon has a network of six schools educating approximately 847 students, comprising two primary, two secondary, and two K-12 schools.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carnarvon has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by three different routes that combined offer 45 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents on average being located 299 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are six trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately zero weekly trips per individual stop.

Carnarvon's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Carnarvon residents exhibit relatively positive health outcomes, with common conditions like arthritis and asthma affecting 7.0 and 6.5% respectively.

Approximately 51% (~2,694 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. Around 71.8% claim to be free of medical ailments, compared to 74.5% in Rest of WA. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 16.7% (879 people), compared to 13.9% in Rest of WA. Health metrics among seniors are notably strong, outperforming the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carnarvon was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnarvon's cultural diversity is notable, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Carnarvon, comprising 50.8% of the population. Buddhism, however, is more prevalent in Carnarvon compared to the rest of WA, with 2.7% versus 2.0%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (27.5%), English (22.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.1%). Some ethnic groups show significant differences: Croatian (2.2% vs regional 1.3%), Vietnamese (2.5% vs regional 1.2%), and Korean (0.3% vs regional 0.2%) are notably overrepresented in Carnarvon.

Carnarvon's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Carnarvon is 40 years, aligning with the Rest of WA's average but slightly higher than the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 14.3%, while those aged 75-84 are comparatively smaller at 4.6% compared to the Rest of WA. Between 2021 and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 11.5% to 13.0%, and the 25-34 cohort has increased from 13.2% to 14.3%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group has declined from 14.8% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Carnarvon's age structure. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to increase by 259 people (35%), from 750 to 1,010. Conversely, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in numbers.