Carnarvon

Carnarvon has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Carnarvon's population is around 5,310 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 431 people (8.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,879 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,253 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 44 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Carnarvon's 8.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (8.1%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 65.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, and to estimate growth across all areas in the years post-2032, AreaSearch is utilizing the growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Moving forward with demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 543 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 9.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Carnarvon recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Carnarvon has experienced around 11 dwellings receiving development approval per year, with 56 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 0 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.1 people moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average construction value of $431,000, showing that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. Additionally, $21.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the rest of WA, Carnarvon records markedly lower building activity (64.0% below the regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, though construction activity has intensified recently. This level is likewise lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises 36.0% detached dwellings and 64.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 79.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 714 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low-activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Carnarvon will gain 486 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carnarvon has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 2 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Shire of Carnarvon Local Planning Scheme 13 Amendment 6, HyEnergy Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Project, Regional And Rural Wa Road Network Safety Improvements, and the WA Regional Digital Connectivity Program (WARDCP), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Carnarvon lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Carnarvon has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 7.5%, and 0.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,545 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.0% above Regional WA's rate of 3.5%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (64.5% compared to Regional WA's 67.4%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with employment levels at 2.1 times the regional average. Meanwhile, mining has a limited presence with 5.8% employment compared to 11.7% regionally. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.8% alongside the labour force increasing by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional WA experienced employment growth of 1.0% and labour force growth of 1.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Carnarvon. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Carnarvon's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.3% over five years and 11.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Carnarvon SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $53,122 with the average level standing at $64,661. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $59,973 and $74,392 across Regional WA respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $58,232 (median) and $70,881 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Carnarvon, between the 30th and 45th percentiles. Looking at income distribution, the predominant cohort spans 29.8% of locals (1,582 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 31.1% in the same category. Housing costs are manageable with 88.3% retained, though disposable income sits below average at the 35th percentile.

Carnarvon is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Carnarvon, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 79.1% houses and 21.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional WA's 88.5% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Carnarvon was slightly lagging that of Regional WA, at 31.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (23.4%) or rented (44.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional WA average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $215, compared to Regional WA's $1,560 and $265. Nationally, Carnarvon's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Carnarvon features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.1% of all households, comprising 22.9% couples with children, 28.0% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.9%, with lone person households at 32.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional WA average of 2.5.

Carnarvon faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.7%) substantially below the Australian average of 30.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.0% in primary education, 9.3% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 46 active transport stops operating within Carnarvon, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 45 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 80%, with 10% walking and 3% cycling. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 10.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 6 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 0 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carnarvon is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Carnarvon faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,718 people), compared to 56.4% across Regional WA.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.0% and 6.5% of residents, respectively, while 71.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 69.3% across Regional WA. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 16.2% of residents aged 65 and over (859 people), which is lower than the 19.2% in Regional WA. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Carnarvon was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Carnarvon is above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 21.9% of its population born overseas and 16.0% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Carnarvon is Christianity, which makes up 50.8% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Buddhism, which comprises 2.7% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Regional WA.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Carnarvon are Australian, comprising 27.5% of the population; English, comprising 22.1% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 31.3%; and Australian Aboriginal, comprising 14.1% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 6.1%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Croatian is overrepresented at 2.2% in Carnarvon (vs 0.3% regionally), Vietnamese at 2.5% (vs 0.1%), and Korean at 0.3% (vs 0.1%).

Carnarvon's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Carnarvon is aligned with Regional WA's average of 40, though modestly exceeding the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 25 - 34 year-olds are particularly prominent (14.8%), while the 75 - 84 group is comparatively smaller (4.5%) than in Regional WA. Since 2021, the median age has decreased by 1.1 years from 41 to 40, indicating a younger demographic shift. Key changes show the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.5% to 13.3% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 13.2% to 14.8%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 14.8% to 12.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Carnarvon. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 28% (222 people), reaching 1,010 from 787. In contrast, the 55 to 64 and 75 to 84 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.