Northcote - West
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Northcote - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Northcote - West's population was around 10,299 people as of Aug 2021. By Jun 2024, this had increased to approximately 10,953 people. This growth reflects an additional 665 people since the 2021 Census, a rise of 6.5%. The increase is inferred from ABS data and validated new addresses. This population results in a density ratio of 4,168 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote - West in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, ending Jun 2024, Northcote - West exhibited resilient growth with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outperforming its SA3 area.

Overseas migration primarily drove this growth, contributing approximately 86.7% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, a significant population increase is forecasted in the top quartile of statistical areas nationwide. Northcote - West is expected to increase by 4,398 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 40.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Northcote - West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Northcote - West averaged approximately 34 new dwelling approvals per year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis. Between FY21 and FY25, there were 172 homes approved. As of FY26, there have been 0 approvals so far.

Over the past five financial years, an average of 0.5 people moved to the area per dwelling built. This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new properties was $1,132,000 during this period, suggesting a focus on the premium market by developers. In FY26, there have been $2.2 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - West maintains similar construction rates per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. This rate is below average nationally, indicating the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists of 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a trend towards denser development that appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift contrasts with the existing housing stock, which is currently 43.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The location has approximately 1230 people per dwelling approval, showing an established market. By 2041, Northcote - West is expected to grow by 4,387 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Northcote - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Thirty-three projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the region significantly. Key initiatives include: North East Link (Eastern Connection), Walker Street Public Housing Renewal in Merri Northcote, The Wilds development in Northcote, and Patch Apartments.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Northcote - West maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Northcote - West has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.6% as of June 2025, aligning with Greater Melbourne's rate.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.3%. In June 2025, 7,403 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 73.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. The area specializes in professional & technical jobs, at 1.7 times the regional level, but has lower construction representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 6.3%, while labour force grew by 7.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne's employment growth was 3.5% with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote - West's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Northcote - West has exceptionally high incomes nationally. The median income is $68,686 and the average income stands at $96,398. In contrast, Greater Melbourne has a median income of $54,892 and an average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Northcote - West would be approximately $75,630 (median) and $106,144 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Northcote - West rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 92nd percentiles. The predominant income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, with 30.0% of locals (3,289 people) falling into this category. Significantly, 38.9% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 83rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Northcote - West, as per the latest Census, 42.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 57.2% being semi-detached, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote - West was 29.3%, similar to Melbourne metro, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 39.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,346, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure was $490, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote - West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,346 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote - West features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 59.2% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 9.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Northcote - West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote - West is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 60.2% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian average of 33.4%. This educational advantage is largely due to bachelor degrees (35.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.6%). Vocational pathways account for 16.6%, with advanced diplomas at 8.3% and certificates also at 8.3%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2021. This includes 9.1% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing secondary education. As of the latest data available, Northcote - West's 4 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 2,353 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1107. The educational mix includes 2 primary schools, 1 secondary school, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Northcote - West shows that there are 44 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. The area is served by 7 individual routes which together provide 5,933 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 164 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 847 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 134 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Northcote-West demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, although this is higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover in the area is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (7,652 people), compared to 66.6% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 11.9% and 8.9% of residents respectively, while 69.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 69.1% across Greater Melbourne.

The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,482 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Northcote - West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-West has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 25.7% of its population born overseas and 19.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Northcote-West, accounting for 28.6% of the population. Notably, Judaism is overrepresented in Northcote-West compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.8% of its population identifying as Jewish.

The top three ancestry groups are English (23.9%), Australian (18.0%), and Irish (11.7%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Greek (4.8%) is overrepresented in Northcote-West compared to regional figures, while Italian (6.5%) and Macedonian (0.8%) have slightly lower representations than the regional averages of 6.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

Northcote - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Northcote-West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.4%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 9.6% to 10.5%, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 15.4% to 13.4%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 10.1% to 9.1%. Demographic projections suggest that Northcote-West's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 45-54 age cohort expected to grow by 45%, adding 663 residents and reaching a total of 2,132 residents in this age group.