Northcote - West
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Northcote - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Northcote - West's population was around 11,247 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 948 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,299 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,953 in June 2024 and an additional 181 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 4,276 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote - West in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's population growth of 9.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area average (7.4%) and the national average. This growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 86.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group were applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Northcote - West is forecast to increase its population by 4,398 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 36.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Northcote - West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Northcote-West has averaged approximately 34 new dwelling approvals annually over recent years. Between the financial years FY21 and FY25172 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY26. On average, 0.5 people have moved to the area per year for each dwelling built during these five financial years, suggesting that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes in the area is $405,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totaling $2.2 million have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to previous years. When compared with Greater Melbourne, Northcote-West has similar levels of development per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. However, these development levels are lower than national averages, reflecting a mature market and possible development constraints. Recent construction in the area comprises 20.0% standalone homes and 80.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable change from the existing housing stock, which is currently 43.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

The area has approximately 1230 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market with steady growth. Looking ahead, Northcote-West is projected to grow by 4,104 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Northcote - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Thirty-three infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Walker Street Public Housing Renewal (Merri Northcote), The Wilds Northcote, Patch Apartments, and 16-18 Clarendon Street Development.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Northcote - West demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Northcote-West has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate was 4.6% as of June 2025, aligning with Greater Melbourne's rate.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.3%. In June 2025, 7,403 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate of 73.9%, higher than Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs only 5.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 6.3%, labour force by 7.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with industry-specific projections suggesting local growth in Northcote-West could be approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Northcote - West had a median income among taxpayers of $68,686 and an average income of $96,398. These figures place Northcote - West in the top percentile nationally. For comparison, Greater Melbourne's median income was $54,892 and average income was $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Northcote - West as of September 2025 would be approximately $77,038 (median) and $108,120 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote - West rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 92nd percentiles. The largest income bracket comprises 30.0% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (3,374 residents). Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 38.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 83rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Northcote-West's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 42.7% houses and 57.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metropolitan area had 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote-West was 29.3%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 30.8%, and rented dwellings made up 39.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,346, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure was $490, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote-West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,346 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in the area were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $490.

Northcote - West features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 59.2% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 9.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Northcote - West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote-West significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 60.2% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. This educational advantage is led by bachelor degrees at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.6%). Vocational pathways account for 16.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.3% and certificates also at 8.3%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.1% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing secondary education. As of the 2021 census, Northcote-West's four schools have a combined enrollment reaching 2,353 students. The area demonstrates significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement, with an ICSEA score of 1107. The educational mix includes two primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Northcote-West has 44 active public transport stops, serving a mix of train, light rail, and bus routes. These stops are covered by 7 individual routes, which together facilitate 5,933 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to these stops is rated excellent, with residents typically located 164 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 847 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 134 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Northcote-West demonstrates above-average health outcomes with prevalence of common health conditions low among its general population. However, it is higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (7,850 people), compared to 66.6% across Greater Melbourne and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues impacting 11.9% of residents and asthma affecting 8.9%. A total of 69.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 69.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 13.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,520 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Northcote - West was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-West had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local areas, with 25.7% of its residents born overseas and 19.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Northcote-West, making up 28.6% of the population. Notably, Judaism was more prevalent in Northcote-West at 0.8%, compared to 0.5% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.9%), Australian (18.0%), and Irish (11.7%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Greeks were overrepresented at 4.8% in Northcote-West versus 6.6% regionally, Italians at 6.5% versus 7.4%, and Macedonians at 0.8% versus 0.9%.

Northcote - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Northcote-West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.6% to 10.5%, while the proportions of those aged 45 to 54 have declined from 15.4% to 13.4% and those aged 5 to 14 have dropped from 10.1% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Northcote-West's age profile will change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 42%, adding 626 residents to reach a total of 2,132.