Northcote - West

Population growth drivers in Northcote - West are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Northcote - West's population is approximately 11,247 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 948 people, a 9.2% rise from the 2021 Census which reported a population of 10,299. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 10,953 in June 2024 and an additional 181 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,276 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote - West among the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, indicating high demand for land in the area. The area's 9.2% growth since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area average (7.4%) and the national average, positioning it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecasted for the top quartile of statistical areas nationwide, with Northcote - West expected to increase by 4,398 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 36.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Northcote - West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Northcote-West averaged approximately 34 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25172 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY26 so far. On average, 0.5 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost of new homes was $405,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totaled $2.2 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity in Northcote-West compared to previous years. When considering Greater Melbourne's development levels per person, Northcote-West has similar figures, supporting market stability aligned with regional patterns. However, these levels are lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and potential development constraints. Recent construction comprised 20% standalone homes and 80% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 43% houses.

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location currently has approximately 1230 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Northcote-West is projected to grow by 4104 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Northcote - West has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely impacting this area. Notable ones include The Wilds Northcote, Walker Street Public Housing Renewal (Merri Northcote), Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), and Patch Apartments. Below are details of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Northcote - West demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Northcote - West has an educated workforce with a notable technology sector presence. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth at 4.4%.

As of September 2025, there are 7,160 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, 0.1% above Greater Melbourne's rate. Workforce participation is high at 73.9%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment industries include professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction employs only 5.2% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%.

In the past year, employment increased by 4.4%, labour force by 4.7%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne had employment growth of 3.0%, labour force growth of 3.3%, and a 0.3 percentage point unemployment rise. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote - West's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch reports that Northcote - West SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $68,686 and an average income of $96,398 in the financial year 2022. These figures place it among the top percentile nationally, compared to Melbourne's averages of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. By September 2025, adjusted for a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since 2022, median income is estimated at approximately $77,038 and average income at $108,120. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Northcote - West rank highly nationally, between the 84th and 92nd percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The largest income bracket comprises 30.0% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (3,374 residents), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall into this range. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 38.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 83rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - West displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Northcote - West's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 42.7% houses and 57.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote - West was 29.3%, similar to Melbourne metro's level. Mortgaged dwellings were at 30.8% and rented ones at 39.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,346, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure stood at $490, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote - West's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote - West features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 59.2% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 6.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 9.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Northcote - West shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote-West is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 60.2% of residents aged 15 years and over held university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% statewide in Victoria. This educational advantage positions the area well for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 35.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (18.5%) and graduate diplomas (6.6%).

Vocational pathways account for 16.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas making up 8.3% and certificates also 8.3%. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2017. This includes 9.1% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 6.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Northcote-West has 44 active public transport stops. These include train, light rail, and bus services. Seven routes operate in total, serving 5,933 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents located an average of 164 meters from the nearest stop. Services run approximately 847 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 134 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - West is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Northcote-West shows better-than-average health outcomes, with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages but higher among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 70% of its total population (7,850 people) has private health cover, higher than Greater Melbourne's 66.6% and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions in the area, affecting 11.9% and 8.9% of residents respectively.

Around 69.1% report being free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's figure. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 13.5% (1,520 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Northcote - West was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-West had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 25.7% of its population born overseas and 19.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Northcote-West, accounting for 28.6% of people. Judaism was overrepresented compared to Greater Melbourne, making up 0.8% versus 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.9%), Australian (18.0%), and Irish (11.7%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Greek was higher at 4.8% compared to the regional average of 6.6%, Italian was slightly lower at 6.5% versus 7.4%, and Macedonian was nearly equal at 0.8%.

Northcote - West's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Northcote-West has a median age of 36 years, nearly matching Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote-West has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (22.4%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.1%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 9.6% to 10.5%, while the proportion of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 15.4% to 13.4%. The proportion of residents aged 5-14 has also dropped, from 10.1% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Northcote-West's age profile. The 45-54 cohort is projected to grow by 42%, adding 626 residents and reaching a total of 2,132.