Northcote - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Northcote - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Northcote - East's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 16,055 people. This figure represents an increase of 987 individuals from the 2021 Census count of 15,068 people, indicating a growth rate of 6.6%. The change is inferred from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' estimated resident population of 15,945 as of June 2024 and an additional 47 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,574 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote - East within the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch, highlighting its land as highly sought after. The area's growth rate exceeded that of the SA3 region at 6.5%, positioning it as a growth leader in the area. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 78.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024, with a base year of 2022, for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the Victorian State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with Northcote - East expected to grow by 6,406 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 39.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northcote - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northcote - East has seen approximately 55 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 278 homes approved over the past five years from FY-21 to FY-25 and three approvals so far in FY-26. The population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $952,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $5.4 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Northcote - East maintains similar construction rates per capita when measured against Greater Melbourne, reflecting its mature market and potential planning constraints, which are below national averages. New building activity comprises 38.0% standalone homes and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living that caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 269 people per dwelling approval, Northcote - East exhibits a developing market. Population forecasts project an increase of 6,271 residents by 2041.

If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Northcote - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 22 projects likely impacting this region. Notable projects include Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), Corner Northcote, McDonald's Northcote, and Northcote Railway Station Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Northcote - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Northcote - East has an educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Unemployment rate was 4.8% in June 2025, with estimated employment growth of 6.4% over the past year.

As of that date, 10,250 residents were employed, with unemployment at 4.8%, above Greater Melbourne's 4.6%. Workforce participation was high at 71.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries included professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Professional & technical had strong representation, at 1.6 times the regional level.

Construction showed lower representation, at 5.2% versus the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. In the past year, employment increased by 6.4%, alongside labour force growth of 7.1%, raising unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.5% and labour force by 4.0%, with a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. In Victoria, employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year to Sep-25, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.8% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Northcote - East had a median taxpayer income of $68,781 and an average income of $96,636. These figures are notably higher than the national averages of $54,892 and $73,761 for Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth rates from June 2022 to March 2025, estimated median income is approximately $75,735 and average income is around $106,406. The 2021 Census shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote - East all rank highly nationally, between the 81st and 88th percentiles. Income analysis indicates that the $1,500 to $2,999 income bracket is dominant with 27.8% of residents (4,463 people), which aligns with broader trends across regional levels showing 32.8% in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 38.7% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, but strong earnings still result in disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Northcote - East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 53.1% houses and 46.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's figures of 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote - East stood at 31.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented dwellings at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure in Northcote - East was $461, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 8.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Northcote - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote - East is notably higher than national and state averages. As of 2016 Census data, 57.0% of residents aged 15 years or older held university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. The area's educational advantage is evident with bachelor degrees being the most common (33.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.3%) and graduate diplomas (6.5%). Vocational pathways account for 16.8%, with advanced diplomas at 7.9% and certificates at 8.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016 Census: 8.7% in tertiary, 7.9% in primary, and 7.0% in secondary education. The area's educational provision includes Westgarth Primary School and Santa Maria College, collectively serving 1,320 students as of 2019. Northcote - East demonstrates high educational performance (ICSEA: 1152), placing local schools among the most advantaged nationally. Educational provision follows a conventional pattern with one primary and one secondary institution. However, limited local school capacity (8.2 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 22.6) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 72 active transport stops operating within Northcote - East. These include a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 13 individual routes providing a total of 9,408 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 139 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 1,344 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - East is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Northcote East demonstrates superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence rates for common health conditions. The private health cover rate is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of its total population of 11,206 people, compared to Greater Melbourne's average of 66.6%. Nationally, the average stands at 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions in the area, affecting 11.3% and 8.3% of residents respectively. Interestingly, 69.0% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 14.7%, comprising 2,356 individuals. Health outcomes among seniors are above average and align with the general population's health profile.

Northcote - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-East, surveyed between April 2016 and June 2017, had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas. Its overseas-born population was 24.9%, while those speaking languages other than English at home comprised 20.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Northcote-East, accounting for 32.3% of its inhabitants.

Notably, Judaism's representation stood at 0.6%, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's 0.5%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (23.5%), Australian (19.7%), and Irish (10.8%). Some ethnicities showed significant variations: Greeks were overrepresented at 7.0% compared to the regional average of 6.6%, Italians at 6.3% versus 7.4%, and Macedonians at 0.7% against 0.9%.

Northcote - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Northcote - East is 38 years, close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (19.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.5%). This 25-34 concentration is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 10.2% to 11.4%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 13.6% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 10.7% to 9.5%. By 2041, Northcote - East's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 51%, adding 1,115 people to reach a total of 3,299 from the previous count of 2,183.