Northcote - East

Northcote - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Northcote - East's population is approximately 16,112 as of November 2025. Between the 2021 Census and this date, the population increased by 1,044 people, a growth rate of 6.9%. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 15,942, with an additional 119 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 4,590 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote - East in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate is close to that of its SA3 region, with both showing competitive fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 78.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Northcote - East is forecasted to experience a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas, with an expected growth of 6,406 persons, reflecting a total increase of 38.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northcote - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northcote - East has seen approximately 55 new homes approved each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 278 homes were approved, with another 19 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a falling population during this period, the new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $685,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market and high-end developments. This financial year has seen around $5.4 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - East maintains similar construction rates per person, reflecting a balanced market consistent with the broader area. However, this activity is below average nationally, possibly due to the area's maturity or planning constraints. New building activity comprises 38.0% standalone homes and 62.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living which can be more affordable and suit downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 269 people per dwelling approval, Northcote - East shows a developing market with population forecasts indicating an increase of 6,214 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with this population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Northcote - East has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), YarraBend - Paperworks Building, McDonald's Northcote, and Northcote Railway Station Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Northcote - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Northcote - East has an educated workforce with a notable technology sector presence. The unemployment rate was 4.9% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 4.6%.

As of September 2025, 9,936 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 71.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries include professional & technical services (1.6 times the regional level), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction had lower representation at 5.2% versus the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 4.6%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, keeping unemployment broadly flat. Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows Victorian employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts suggest total employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote - East's industry mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2022 for financial year 2022, Northcote - East SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $68,781 and an average level of $96,636. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high compared to the national median of $54,892 and national average of $73,761 for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% from June 30, 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $77,145 (median) and $108,387 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote - East rank between the 81st and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 27.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 (4,479 people), consistent with broader regional trends where 32.8% fall into this category. High weekly earnings exceeding $3,000 are achieved by 38.7% of households, indicating strong consumer spending despite high housing costs consuming 15.4% of income. Disposable income ranks at the 80th percentile nationally, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Northcote - East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 53.1% houses and 46.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote - East stood at 31.5%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.8%) or rented (37.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure was $461, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote - East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,427 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, consisting of 28.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households making up 8.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Northcote - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Northcote - East has a notably high level of educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above. A total of 57.0% hold university qualifications, which is significantly higher than the national average of 30.4% and the Victorian state average of 33.4%. This indicates a substantial educational advantage for the area. Among those with university qualifications, bachelor degrees are most common at 33.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.3%) and graduate diplomas (6.5%).

Vocational pathways account for 16.8% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas making up 7.9% and certificates 8.9%. Educational participation is also high in the area, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% pursuing tertiary education, 7.9% primary education, and 7.0% secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 72 active transport stops operating within Northcote - East. These include a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 13 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 9,408 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 139 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 1,344 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - East is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Northcote - East shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence rates of common health conditions. The private health cover rate is notably high at approximately 70% (11,246 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 66.6%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues affect 11.3% and asthma impacts 8.3% of residents in the area. Notably, 69.0% report being free from medical ailments, comparable to Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.7% (2,365 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Northcote - East was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-East was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.9% of its population born overseas and 20.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Northcote-East, making up 32.3% of its population. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Northcote-East compared to Greater Melbourne, comprising 0.6% versus 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.5%), Australian (19.7%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Greek (7.0%) and Italian (6.3%) groups were slightly overrepresented in Northcote-East compared to regional averages of 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively. Macedonian was also represented at 0.7%, slightly lower than the regional average of 0.9%.

Northcote - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Northcote - East is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - East has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (19.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.5%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the percentage of residents aged 15 to 24 has increased from 10.2% to 11.4%, while the percentage of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 15.0% to 13.6%. The percentage of residents aged 5-14 has also dropped, from 10.7% to 9.5%. By the year 2041, Northcote - East is projected to experience significant changes in its age distribution. Notably, the number of residents aged 45 to 54 is expected to grow by 51%, reaching 3,299 from a previous total of 2,191.