Northcote - East
Statistical Area - sa2

Northcote - East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Northcote - East's population is approximately 16,112 as of November 2025. This marks an increase of 1,044 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,068. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 15,942 in June 2024 and an additional 119 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 4,590 persons per square kilometer, ranking Northcote - East among the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 6.9% growth since Census is comparable to its SA3 area (7.4%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.8% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, it employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends forecast a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian statistical areas: Northcote - East is expected to grow by 6,406 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 38.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northcote - East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northcote - East has seen approximately 55 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 278 homes were approved, with another 17 approved in FY26 so far. Despite a population decline during this period, the new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $685,000, indicating developers' focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This financial year has seen $5.4 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - East maintains similar construction rates per person, keeping its market balance consistent with the broader area. Nationally, however, this activity is below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 38% standalone homes and 62% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

With around 269 people per dwelling approval, Northcote - East indicates a developing market. Population forecasts project an increase of 6,214 residents by 2041 in Northcote - East. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Northcote - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twenty-five projects identified by AreaSearch could significantly impact the local area, with changes to infrastructure being a major influence on performance. Key projects include Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), YarraBend - Paperworks Building, Corner Northcote, and McDonald's Northcote. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Northcote - East has been broadly consistent with national averages

Northcote - East has a highly educated workforce with the technology sector well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% in June 2025, 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.4%. As of June 2025, 10,250 residents were employed, with workforce participation at 71.3%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Northcote - East has a strong specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 5.2% versus the regional average of 9.7%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally due to its predominantly residential nature. In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 6.4%, while labour force grew by 7.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Melbourne's employment growth of 3.5% and labour force growth of 4.0%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote - East's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.3% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Northcote - East had a median taxpayer income of $68,781 and an average income of $96,636. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, compared to Greater Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Northcote - East would be approximately $77,145 (median) and $108,387 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote - East rank highly nationally, between the 81st and 88th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 27.8% of residents (4,479 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, consistent with broader regional trends where 32.8% are in the same category. Economic strength is evident through 38.7% of households earning high weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, which supports elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote - East displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Northcote - East's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 53.1% houses and 46.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote - East was at 31.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.8% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,427, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure was $461, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote - East's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,427 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, including 28.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 7.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 8.6%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.3.

Northcote - East shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote - East is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 57.0% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 33.4% in Victoria. The area's most common qualification is the Bachelor degree at 33.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.3%) and graduate diplomas (6.5%). Vocational pathways account for 16.8% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 7.9% and certificates 8.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2021. This includes 8.7% in tertiary education, 7.9% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education. The area's educational provision includes Westgarth Primary School and Santa Maria College, collectively serving 1,320 students. As of 2020, local schools demonstrate exceptional performance, with an ICSEA score of 1152, placing them among the most advantaged nationally. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and one secondary institution. However, limited local school capacity (8.2 places per 100 residents vs 22.6 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Northcote - East has 72 active public transport stops operating. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 13 routes serving these stops, providing a total of 9,408 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 139 meters to the nearest stop. All routes combined offer 1,344 daily trips, which equates to approximately 130 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote - East is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Northcote - East shows superior health outcomes, with both young and elderly experiencing low rates of common health conditions. Private health cover is high here, at approximately 70% of its total population (11,246 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 66.6%. Nationally, the average is 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.3% and 8.3% respectively. 69.0% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. The area has a senior population (aged 65 and over) of 14.7%, or 2,365 people. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Northcote - East was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote-East was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 24.9% of its population born overseas and 20.7% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Northcote-East, comprising 32.3% of the population. However, Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.6% compared to 0.5% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.5%), Australian (19.7%), and Irish (10.8%). Notably, Greek (7.0%) was slightly overrepresented compared to the regional average of 6.6%, while Italian (6.3%) was underrepresented compared to the regional average of 7.4%. Macedonian (0.7%) also had a lower representation than the regional average of 0.9%.

Northcote - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Northcote - East is close to Greater Melbourne's average of 37 years and equivalent to Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote - East has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (19.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.5%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 10.2% to 11.4%, while the 45-54 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 13.6%. The percentage of residents aged 5-14 has also dropped from 10.7% to 9.5%. By 2041, Northcote - East is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 51%, reaching a total of 3,299 people from the current figure of 2,191.