Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Thornbury is estimated at around 20,522 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,517 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,005. The change was inferred from the resident population of 20,011 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,000 persons per square kilometer, placing Thornbury in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 8.0% growth since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (8.7%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 7,717 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 35.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thornbury experienced around 56 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 281 homes from FY-20 to FY-24. As of FY-26, 49 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 people moved to Thornbury per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value for new homes was $717,000, suggesting a focus on premium properties.

This financial year saw $43.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury had 16.0% lower construction activity per person as of FY-26. Nationally, it ranked at the 35th percentile for areas assessed, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established dwellings. Recent construction comprised 40.0% detached dwellings and 60.0% townhouses or apartments, favouring higher-density living. Thornbury's population is forecast to grow by 7,206 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, 680 High Street Residential Development, and North East Link Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Thornbury shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Thornbury has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate was 7.2% as of an unspecified date, with estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 12,354 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation in Thornbury was 77.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 71.3%. According to Census responses, 48.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Thornbury has a particularly high concentration in professional & technical jobs, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction employs only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, employment increased by 3.7%, while the labour force grew by 4.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4%, labour force growth of 2.8%, and a smaller increase in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Thornbury had a median income among taxpayers of $62,613. The average income stood at $81,157 in this period. Nationally, these figures are high compared to the national averages of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively for Greater Melbourne. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,779 (median) and $87,852 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates individual earnings stand out at the 82nd percentile nationally with a weekly income of $1,042. Distribution data shows that 30.3% of Thornbury's population, equating to 6,218 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 30.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly in Thornbury, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornbury's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.4% houses and 48.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.5% and rented dwellings at 42.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, exceeding Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was $391, slightly higher than Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.9% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.1%, with lone person households at 33.6% and group households making up 7.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15 and above, 51.2% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 31.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 85 active public transport stops, served by 14 routes offering 7,023 weekly passenger trips. These stops are a mix of lightrail and buses. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 176 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 67%, followed by train at 10% and cycling at 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 48.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,003 trips per day, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornbury's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Thornbury's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 59% (12,075 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7%. Mental health issues affect 11.7%, while asthma impacts 8.3%. About 68.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 72.6% in Greater Melbourne. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. The area has 13.9% residents aged 65 and over (2,852 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%. National rankings align with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thornbury was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.4% of its population born overseas and 26.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Thornbury, comprising 37.0% of people there. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, making up 0.4% of Thornbury's population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences in representation: Greek was overrepresented at 7.7% (vs regional 2.7%), Italian at 8.9% (vs 5.2%), and Macedonian at 1.1% (vs 0.7%).

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and closely resembling Australia's national median age of 38. The 25-34 age group is notably strong in Thornbury at 19.7%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort is less prevalent in Thornbury at 9.2%. Nationally, the 25-34 age group stands at 14.4%, making Thornbury's figure significantly higher. Between 2021 and present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 11.1% of Thornbury's population. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.1%. Looking forward to the year 2041, demographic projections indicate substantial shifts in Thornbury's age structure. Notably, the 55 to 64 age group is projected to grow by 56%, adding 1,269 people to reach a total of 3,547 from its current figure of 2,277.