Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Thornbury's estimated population as of November 2025 is around 20,521, showing an increase of 1,516 people since the 2021 Census. This growth reflects an 8.0% increase from the previous census figure of 19,005. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 20,011 in June 2024 and 99 validated new addresses since the Census date. Thornbury's population density ratio is approximately 4,000 persons per square kilometer, placing it within the top 10% nationally according to AreaSearch. The area has experienced competitive growth fundamentals, with an 8.0% increase since the census, compared to the SA3 area's 8.6%. Overseas migration contributed roughly 81.0% of Thornbury's overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted using weighted aggregation for areas not covered by ABS data. By 2041, Thornbury is forecast to increase by 7,758 persons, reflecting a 35.6% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data in Thornbury, shows around 56 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 281 homes. So far in FY-26, 48 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over these five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25) is 0.9. This suggests that supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $717,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $43.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury shows 16.0% lower construction activity per person while it places among the 35th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This indicates somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established dwellings. Recent construction comprises 40.0% detached dwellings and 60.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Thornbury's population is forecast to gain 7,316 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, 680 High Street Residential Development, and North East Link Project. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Thornbury shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Thornbury's workforce is highly educated with notable representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate was 7.1% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over this period was estimated at 3.9%. As of September 2025, 12,264 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, exceeding Greater Melbourne's rate by 2.4 percentage points. Workforce participation in Thornbury was 71.2%, above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key employment sectors included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area had a particularly high concentration of professional & technical jobs, at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, construction employed only 6.1% of local workers compared to Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Over the preceding year, employment increased by 3.9%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment grow by 3.0%, labour force increase by 3.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov showed Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, with employment growth outpacing the national average by 0.99 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 project national employment to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Thornbury had a median income among taxpayers of $62,613. The average income stood at $81,157. These figures are higher than national levels and compare to $57,688 and $75,164 across Greater Melbourne respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,779 (median) and $87,852 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows individual earnings stand out at the 82nd percentile nationally ($1,042 weekly). Distribution data indicates that 30.3% of Thornbury's population (6,217 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 30.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, however strong earnings still place disposable income at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 51.4% houses and 48.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.5% and rented ones at 42.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, lower than Melbourne metro's $2,300. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was $391, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,200 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $391 compared to the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 58.9% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.1%, with lone person households at 33.6% and group households comprising 7.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the Greater Melbourne average.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment exceeds national and state averages. Among residents aged 15+, 51.2% have university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 31.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4%, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary, 7.6% in primary, and 5.9% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 85 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 14 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 7,023 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 176 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. On average, there are 1,003 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 82 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Thornbury is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thornbury shows above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, older, at-risk cohorts have higher rates of these conditions.

As of 12th July 2021, approximately 59% of Thornbury's total population (12,074 people) has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's rate of 67.5%. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 11.7% and 8.3% of residents respectively, as of June 2020. Conversely, 68.5% of Thornbury residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's rate of 69.1%. As of December 2020, the area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,749 people), requiring more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thornbury was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 27.4% born overseas and 26.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Thornbury, comprising 37.0% of its population. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Greek (7.7%) and Italian (8.9%) were notably overrepresented in Thornbury, compared to regional percentages of 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively. Macedonian was also slightly overrepresented at 1.1%.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group constitutes 20.2% of Thornbury's population, higher than Greater Melbourne's figure but lower than the national average of 14.5%. The 5-14 age cohort makes up 9.2% of Thornbury's population. Between 2021 and present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 10.6%, while the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 14.1% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thornbury's age structure, with the 55 to 64 age group expected to grow by 63%, reaching 3,556 people from its current total of 2,175.