Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Thornbury's population, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since Nov 2025, is around 19,952. This reflects a growth of 947 people (5%) from the 2021 Census figure of 19,005. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 19,936 in Jun 2024 and 99 new addresses validated since the Census date. Thornbury's population density of 3,889 persons per square kilometer places it in the top 10% nationally, indicating high demand for land. The suburb's growth rate of 5%, compared to the SA3 area's 7.4%, shows competitive fundamentals within 2.4 percentage points. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81% of Thornbury's population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas, and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for other areas. Future demographic trends forecast significant population growth in Thornbury, with an expected increase of 7,759 persons by 2041, reflecting a 39.5% total increase over the next 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Thornbury has experienced around 55 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 277 homes. So far in FY-26 (July 2025 - June 2026), 34 approvals have been recorded. With an average of approximately 0.9 people moving to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, supply appears to be meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost value of $717,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $48.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury shows 17.0% lower construction activity per person while it places among the 33rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, indicating somewhat limited buyer options and strengthening demand for established dwellings. This level reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises approximately 40.0% detached dwellings and 60.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

At around 510 people per approval, Thornbury indicates a mature market. Population forecasts indicate Thornbury will gain approximately 7,886 residents by the year 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 35 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, North East Link Project, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, and 680 High Street Residential Development. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Thornbury shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Thornbury has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate was 7.0% as of an unspecified past year.

Employment growth over that year was estimated at 5.5%. As of June 2025, 12,656 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.9%, which is 2.3% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Thornbury was 71.2%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area has a notably high concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. In contrast, construction employs only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Over a 12-month period ending in an unspecified date, employment increased by 5.5%, while labour force grew by 7.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an increase in unemployment of 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022. Thornbury had a median income among taxpayers of $62,611 and an average level of $81,158. Nationally, these figures are high compared to the Greater Melbourne levels of $54,892 and $73,761 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Thornbury would be approximately $70,224 (median) and $91,027 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows individual earnings in Thornbury stand out at the 82nd percentile nationally with weekly earnings of $1,042. Distribution data indicates that 30.3% of the population (6,045 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the region where 32.8% occupy this bracket. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 30.9% exceeding $3,000 weekly, suggesting strong purchasing power in the community. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 63rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornbury's latest Census recorded 51.4% houses and 48.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury stood at 27.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.5% and rented ones at 42.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, below Melbourne metro's $2,300. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was $391, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,200 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $391 against the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 58.9% of all households, including 25.5% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 41.1%, with lone person households at 33.6% and group households comprising 7.5%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment is notably high, with 51.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, surpassing national (30.4%) and Victorian state (33.4%) averages. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 31.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (14.0%) and graduate diplomas (6.0%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%. Educational participation is high, with 28.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.9% in tertiary, 7.6% in primary, and 5.9% in secondary education.

Thornbury hosts a robust network of 10 schools educating approximately 8,476 students, comprising six primary, one secondary, and three K-12 schools. The area's socio-educational conditions are above average (ICSEA: 1081). It functions as an education hub with 42.5 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 22.4, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 83 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops offer a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. There are 12 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 6,617 weekly passenger trips.

Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 176 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is high, averaging 945 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 79 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Thornbury is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thornbury shows better-than-average health outcomes with lower prevalence of common conditions among its general population compared to national averages. However, older, at-risk cohorts have higher rates of these conditions.

As of 14th May 2021, approximately 59% (11,739 people) of Thornbury's population has private health cover, which is lower than Greater Melbourne's 66.6%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Thornbury, affecting 11.7% and 8.3% of residents respectively, as of May 2021. Meanwhile, 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.1% across Greater Melbourne. As of the same date, 13.4% (2,673 people) of Thornbury's population is aged 65 and over, requiring more attention than the broader population.

Thornbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury, as per the findings, exhibited a higher level of cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Its population comprised 27.4% born overseas and 26.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion in Thornbury, accounting for 37.0% of its residents.

However, Judaism showed an overrepresentation in Thornbury with 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.5%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Notable differences existed for Greek (Thornbury: 7.7% vs regional: 6.6%), Italian (Thornbury: 8.9% vs regional: 7.4%), and Macedonian (Thornbury: 1.1% vs regional: 0.9%) ethnic groups.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 20.2% of Thornbury's population, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.5%. The 5-14 age group constitutes 9.2%, less prevalent than in Greater Melbourne. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 10.6%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thornbury's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 68%, adding 1,442 people and reaching a total of 3,557 from its current figure of 2,114.