Northcote

Population growth drivers in Northcote are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Northcote's population is estimated at around 27,514 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 2,238 people (8.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,276 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 26,844 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 302 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,578 persons per square kilometer, placing Northcote in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Northcote's 8.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 8.6%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting them employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Northcote statistical area (Lv2) is expected to grow by 10,767 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 36.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northcote according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Northcote had approximately 91 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 459 homes. As of FY26, there have been 30 approvals recorded so far. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction value for new properties is $973,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This year, there have been $12.2 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to Greater Melbourne. Northcote's construction activity per person is comparable to other areas and below the national average, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations. The current housing mix shows 32.0% detached houses and 68.0% medium and high-density housing, a shift from the previous mix of 49.0% houses. This change reflects reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands. With around 331 people per dwelling approval, Northcote is developing. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Northcote is expected to grow by approximately 10,029 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Northcote has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 46 infrastructure projects that could impact the area significantly. Notable ones include Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), YarraBend - Paperworks Building, The Wilds Northcote, and McDonald's Northcote.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Northcote demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Northcote has an educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% in September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. The area's unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%, while workforce participation is higher at 72.3%. Key industries include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Professional & technical employment is notably high, at 1.7 times the regional average, but construction shows lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 4.5%, while labour force grew by 4.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne saw employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%. National forecasts from May-25 suggest total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Northcote has a median taxpayer income of $68,909 and an average income of $96,739 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Nationally, these figures are exceptionally high, contrasting with Greater Melbourne's median income of $57,688 and average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $74,594 (median) and $104,720 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 89th percentiles. In Northcote, 28.8% of the population (7,924 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with regional levels where this cohort likewise represents 32.8%. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 38.8% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 82nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Northcote, as per the latest Census evaluation, 49.1% of dwellings were houses while 50.8% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs slightly from Melbourne metro's distribution of 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote stood at 30.8%, similar to Melbourne metro's rate. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 30.9%, with rented properties making up 38.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. The median weekly rent figure in Northcote was $475, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Northcote features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 60.6% of all households, including 26.9% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 39.4%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Northcote shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Northcote's educational attainment exceeds national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 58.3% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 33.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.8%) and graduate diplomas (6.6%). Vocational pathways account for 16.6%, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 8.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in tertiary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Northcote has 116 active public transport stops. These include train, light rail, and bus services. There are 17 individual routes operating in total.

They provide a combined 9,851 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 148 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency is 1,407 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Northcote shows above-average health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions among its general population, but higher rates in older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover is exceptionally high, at approximately 65% (17,859 people) compared to Greater Melbourne's 67.5%. Nationally, it stands at 55.7%.

The most common conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 11.6% and 8.6% of residents respectively. 69.0% report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. Northcote has 14.2% (3,906 people) of residents aged 65 and over, requiring more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Northcote was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 25.2% born overseas and 20.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Northcote, accounting for 30.8% of its population. However, Judaism was notably overrepresented, comprising 0.7% compared to 0.5% across Greater Melbourne.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.7%), Australian (19.0%), and Irish (11.1%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Greek was slightly overrepresented at 6.1% (vs regional 6.6%), Italian was underrepresented at 6.4% (vs regional 7.4%), and Macedonian was also underrepresented at 0.7% (vs regional 0.9%).

Northcote's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Northcote has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 20.8% of Northcote's population, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.5%. The 5-14 cohort makes up 9.3% of Northcote's population. Between 2021 and present day, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.0% to 11.0%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 15.2% to 13.5%. The 5-14 group has also declined slightly, from 10.4% to 9.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Northcote's age structure. Notably, the 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 46%, adding approximately 1,700 people and reaching a total of 5,415 from its current figure of 3,714.