Northcote

Population growth drivers in Northcote are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Northcote's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 27,414 people. This figure reflects an increase of 2,138 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 25,276. The ABS ERP data release from June 2024, along with AreaSearch's validation of new addresses, indicates that Northcote's resident population was estimated at 26,953 in recent periods. This results in a population density ratio of 4,561 persons per square kilometer, placing the suburb within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb experienced an 8.5% growth rate since the 2021 Census, outperforming the SA3 area's 7.4% growth and marking it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Northcote.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting using a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Northcote is forecasted to grow by 10,766 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 36.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Northcote according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Northcote has seen approximately 92 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 463 homes. As of April 2026, 22 approvals have been recorded. The area's population has declined, but housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $967,000, indicating developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In this financial year ending June 2026, there have been $7.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting Northcote's primarily residential nature. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Northcote shows comparable construction activity per person, preserving market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas and falling below the national average, suggesting an established area potentially limited by planning regulations. New building activity comprises 32.0% detached houses and 68.0% medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 49.0% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands. With around 319 people per dwelling approval, Northcote shows an evolving market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Northcote is projected to grow by 10,128 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Northcote has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can be greatly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 46 such projects that could potentially impact the area. Notable among these are the Northcote Plaza Redevelopment (Northcote Green), YarraBend - Paperworks Building, The Wilds Northcote, and McDonald's Northcote. The following list provides details on those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Northcote demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Northcote has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. The unemployment rate was 4.7% as of June 2025, slightly higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 6.4%. As of June 2025, 17,632 residents were employed, with workforce participation at 72.3%, above Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Key industries for employment are professional & technical (1.7 times the regional average), health care & social assistance, and education & training. Construction shows lower representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 9.7%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 6.4%, labour force by 7.1%, raising unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5% and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Northcote's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Northcote's median taxpayer income was $68,927 and average income was $96,738 according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is notably higher than Greater Melbourne's median income of $54,892 and average income of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, estimated median income for Northcote as of September 2025 would be approximately $77,309 and average income $108,501. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Northcote rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 89th percentiles. Incomes of $1,500 - 2,999 per week are reported by 28.8% of Northcote's population (7,895 individuals), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 32.8%. The district shows significant affluence with 38.8% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 82nd percentile nationally. Northcote's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Northcote displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Northcote's latest Census data showed 49.1% houses and 50.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Melbourne metro had 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Northcote was 30.8%, similar to Melbourne metro's 30.7%. Mortgaged dwellings were 30.9% and rented ones 38.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, above Melbourne metro's $2,300. Median weekly rent in Northcote was $475, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Northcote's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Northcote features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 60.6% of all households, including 26.9% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 7.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 39.4%, with lone person households at 30.3% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Northcote shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Northcote is significantly higher than broader benchmarks, with 58.3% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in Victoria as of the latest data. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (17.8%) and graduate diplomas (6.6%). Vocational pathways account for 16.6% of qualifications among those aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas making up 8.0% and certificates 8.6%. Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest figures, including 8.8% in tertiary education, 7.8% in primary education, and 7.0% pursuing secondary education.

There are six schools operating within Northcote as of now, educating approximately 3,673 students. The area has significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement (ICSEA: 1122). The educational mix includes three primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are 13.4, which is below the regional average of 22.4, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Northcote has 113 active public transport stops. They offer a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes that together facilitate 12,911 weekly passenger trips.

Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 149 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is high, with an average of 1,844 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 114 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Northcote is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Northcote exhibits above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, despite being higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 65% of Northcote's total population (17,794 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 11.6% and 8.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 69.0% of Northcote's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. The area has a higher proportion of older residents, with 14.2% being aged 65 and over (3,892 people), which may require more attention than the broader population.

Northcote was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Northcote's population showed high cultural diversity, with 25.2% born overseas and 20.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 30.8%. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Northcote at 0.7%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (23.7%), Australian (19.0%), and Irish (11.1%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Greeks made up 6.1% of Northcote, compared to 6.6% regionally; Italians comprised 6.4%, versus 7.4%; and Macedonians were at 0.7%, slightly lower than the regional average of 0.9%.

Northcote's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Northcote has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's figure of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 is strongly represented at 20.8%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is significantly above the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.0% to 11.0%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 15.2% to 13.5%. The 5-14 group has also dropped from 10.4% to 9.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate substantial shifts in Northcote's age structure. Notably, the 45 to 54 age group is projected to grow by 46%, adding 1,715 people and reaching a total of 5,416 from its current figure of 3,700.