Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Thornbury's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 20,007 people. This figure represents an increase of 1,088 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,919. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 19,994 residents in June 2024 and 101 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 4,001 persons per square kilometer, placing Thornbury within the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate since the Census (5.8%) is close to its SA3 area's growth rate (7.4%), indicating strong fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.3% of recent population gains in Thornbury.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using a weighted aggregation method to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Thornbury is forecasted to experience significant population growth in the top quartile of statistical areas nationally. By 2041, the area's population is expected to increase by 7,721 persons, reflecting a total increase of 38.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thornbury has averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25290 homes were approved, with an additional 45 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years is 0.9.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new homes being built is $403,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals have totalled $48.7 million, showing strong commercial development momentum. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury has 13.0% less new development per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 36th percentile of areas assessed for new development, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties.

This activity is lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction in Thornbury comprises 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 551 people per dwelling approval, Thornbury shows a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Thornbury is expected to grow by 7,696 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 35 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, North East Link Project, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, and 680 High Street Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Thornbury has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornbury has an educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate was 7.1% in September 2025.

Employment grew by 3.9% over the past year. As of that date, 12,228 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.7%. Workforce participation was 71.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. Leading industries for Thornbury residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

The area has a notable concentration in professional & technical jobs, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, construction employs only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, while the labour force grew by 4.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during this period. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows Victoria's employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Thornbury SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $62,583 and an average income of $81,068. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $70,193 and $90,926 respectively, based on a 12.16% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Thornbury's individual earnings rank at the 81st percentile nationally ($1,041 weekly). The largest income segment comprises 30.3% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (6,062 residents), with a notable presence of higher earners at 31.0%, indicating strong purchasing power. Housing costs consume 16.1% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 64th percentile nationally. Thornbury's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornbury's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.9% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury was at 27.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.6% and rented ones at 42.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,200, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,200 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $396 compared to the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 59.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 7.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's residents aged 15+ have a higher proportion with university qualifications (51.2%) than the Australian average (30.4%) and Victorian average (33.4%). Bachelor degrees are most common at 31.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 13.9% and graduate diplomas at 6.1%. Vocational pathways account for 20.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%. Educational participation is high, with 28.1% currently enrolled in formal education: 8.9% in tertiary, 7.6% in primary, and 5.9% in secondary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury's public transport analysis shows 80 active stops operating, offering a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. These stops are served by 12 individual routes, collectively handling 6,617 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per stop.

Thornbury's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Thornbury's health data shows positive outcomes overall. Common health condition prevalence is low among its general population but higher than national averages in older cohorts at risk.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of Thornbury's total population (11,964 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 66.6%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.7% and 8.3% of residents respectively. 68.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Melbourne's 69.1%. Thornbury has 13.4% (2,674 people) aged 65 and over, a group requiring more attention than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thornbury was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local areas, with 27.4% born overseas and 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Thornbury as of 2016, composing 37.1% of its population. Judaism, however, was more prevalent in Thornbury compared to Greater Melbourne, with 0.4% versus 0.5%.

The top three ancestry groups based on parental birth countries were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, Greek (7.7%) and Italian (8.9%) populations were higher in Thornbury than the regional averages of 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively, while Macedonian was slightly overrepresented at 1.2%.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 20.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national figure of 14.5%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent in Thornbury at 9.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 10.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thornbury's age structure, with the 55 to 64 group expected to grow by 67% (1,420 people), reaching 3,545 from its current level of 2,124.