Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Thornbury's population is approximately 20,490 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,571 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,919. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 19,982 in June 2024 and an additional 103 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,098 persons per square kilometer, placing Thornbury in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Thornbury's growth rate of 8.3% since the census is within 0.4 percentage points of its SA3 area, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Thornbury is forecasted to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 7,721 persons expected by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 35.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thornbury averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY21 and FY25290 homes were approved, with an additional 50 approved in FY26 so far. The average population growth associated with these approvals was 0.9 people per year over the past five financial years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes was $403,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totaled $48.7 million, indicating strong commercial development momentum in the area. When compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury has 13.0% less new development per person and ranks at the 36th percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established properties. Recent construction comprised 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Thornbury has a developed market with around 551 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Thornbury is expected to grow by approximately 7,213 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects that may affect the region. Notable ones include 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, 680 High Street Residential Development, and North East Link Project. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Thornbury has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornbury has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector notably represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.1%, having grown by an estimated 3.9% over the past year. Residents in work total 12,228, with an unemployment rate of 2.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's 4.7%.

Workforce participation stands at 76.5%, above Greater Melbourne's 71.0%. Census responses show that 48.1% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. Professional & technical has a notably high concentration, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Construction employs just 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 4.7%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.0% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Thornbury SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $66,515. The average income stood at $84,578. This was among the highest in Australia compared to Greater Melbourne's median and average incomes of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $72,002 and $91,556 respectively. In the 2021 Census, individual earnings in Thornbury SA2 stood at the 81st percentile nationally, with weekly earnings of $1,041. The largest income bracket comprised 30.3% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (6,208 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 32.8% occupied this range. Higher earners represented a substantial presence with 31.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consumed 16.1% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 64th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Thornbury, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.9% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Thornbury was 27.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.6% and rented ones at 42.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's $2,000. The median weekly rent figure in Thornbury was $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households making up 7.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 51.2% possess university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (31.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (6.1%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4%, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 82 active public transport stops offering a mix of light rail and bus services. These are served by 14 routes that facilitate 7,023 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 176 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. Most commutes from Thornbury are outward-bound due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 67%, followed by train at 9% and cycling at 7%. The area has an average vehicle ownership rate of 0.9 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 48.1% of residents work from home, which might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 1,003 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornbury's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Thornbury's health data shows positive outcomes, matching national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across all ages. Private health cover is high at 62%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affect 11.7% and asthma impacts 8.3% of residents. 68.5% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. Thornbury has 13.7% residents aged 65 and over (2,809 people), lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.1%, with national rankings aligning with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thornbury was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 27.4% of its population born overseas and 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Thornbury is Christianity, comprising 37.1% of the population. However, Judaism is notably overrepresented, making up 0.4% compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Greek (7.7%) Italian (8.9%) and Macedonian (1.2%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 2.7%, 5.2% and 0.7% respectively.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne and closely aligning with Australia's figure of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 19.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne but lower than the national average of 14.4%. The 5-14 cohort makes up 9.2% of Thornbury's population. Between 2021 and present, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 11.0%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the 55 to 64 group will grow by 57% (1,282 people), reaching a total of 3,545 from its current figure of 2,262.