Thornbury
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Thornbury's population was 18,919 as of the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it had risen to around 20,007, an increase of 1,088 people (5.8%). This change is inferred from ABS estimates: 19,994 in June 2024 and an additional 101 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 4,001 persons per square kilometer, placing Thornbury in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Its growth rate of 5.8% since the census is within 1.6 percentage points of its SA3 area's 7.4%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, Thornbury is forecasted to experience significant population growth, increasing by 7,721 persons to reach a total of 27,628 by the year 2041. This reflects an overall increase of 38.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thornbury averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25. A total of 290 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 37 approved in FY26 as of now. The average population growth associated with these approvals was 0.9 people per year per dwelling.

This indicates that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes was $403,000. In FY26, Thornbury recorded $48.7 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury has 13.0% less new development per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 36th percentile of areas assessed for new development, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties.

This activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction in Thornbury comprises 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This results in approximately 551 people per dwelling approval, indicating a highly mature market. Looking ahead, Thornbury is projected to grow by 7,696 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Thornbury has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 35 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Bastings Community at Westgarth, the development at 531-535 St Georges Road, 658-664 High Street Apartments, and 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Thornbury has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornbury has a highly educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 7.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 5.6% over the past year as of June 2025.

In this month, 12,635 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.4% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.6%. Workforce participation in Thornbury is 71.1%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 64.1%. The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction employs only 6.1% of local workers, lower than Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels in Thornbury increased by 5.6% while the labour force grew by 7.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 3.5%, labour force growth of 4.0%, and an unemployment increase of 0.5 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 provide insights into potential future demand within Thornbury. These projections estimate a national employment expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates across industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years. However, it is important to note that these estimates are based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Thornbury had a median income among taxpayers of $62,583 and an average level of $81,068. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Melbourne's median of $54,892 and average of $73,761. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Thornbury would be approximately $70,193 (median) and $90,926 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, individual earnings in Thornbury stand out at the 82nd percentile nationally, with a weekly income of $1,041. The largest segment of income brackets comprises 30.3% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (6,062 residents), similar to regional levels where 32.8% fall within this range. A substantial presence is seen among higher earners, with 31.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in the community. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 64th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Thornbury, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.9% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Melbourne metro's 50.4% houses and 49.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury was at 27.8%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (29.6%) or rented (42.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,200, below Melbourne metro's average of $2,300. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was recorded at $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $421. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 59.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.8%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households making up 7.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Greater Melbourne average.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. 51.2% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 31.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (6.1%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4% of qualifications, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary, 7.6% in primary, and 5.9% in secondary education. Thornbury has a robust network of 10 schools educating approximately 8,476 students, with above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1081). The educational mix includes 6 primary, 1 secondary, and 3 K-12 schools. As an education hub, Thornbury has 42.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 22.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 80 active public transport stops offering a mix of train, light rail, and bus services. These stops are served by 12 individual routes, collectively facilitating 6,617 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 945 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 82 weekly trips per stop.

Thornbury's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive outcomes for Thornbury residents. The prevalence of common health conditions among the general population is quite low but higher than the national average in older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 60% of the total population (11,964 people) has private health cover, compared to 66.6% across Greater Melbourne. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 11.7 and 8.3% of residents respectively. A total of 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 69.1% across Greater Melbourne. The area has 13.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,674 people).

Thornbury was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury, surveyed in 2016, exhibited higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.4% of its population born overseas and 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 37.1%. Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.4%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 0.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Notable divergences included Greek (7.7% vs regional 6.6%) and Italian (8.9% vs regional 7.4%), both overrepresented in Thornbury, as well as Macedonian at 1.2% compared to the region's 0.9%.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and remaining comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 20.2%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. This concentration of individuals aged 25-34 is significantly above the national average of 14.5%. Between 2021 and the present day, the 55 to 64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 10.6% of Thornbury's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thornbury's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is expected to grow by 67%, adding 1,420 people and reaching a total of 3,545 from its current figure of 2,124.