Thornbury

Population growth drivers in Thornbury are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Thornbury's population is around 20,238 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,319 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 18,919 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,234 in June 2025 and an additional 105 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,047 persons per square kilometer, placing Thornbury in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 7.0% growth since census is within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area (8.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting with a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Thornbury is forecasted to experience significant population increase, with an expected rise of 7,586 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 37.5% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Thornbury according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Thornbury averaged approximately 58 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 290 homes approved during this period and an additional 59 approved in FY26. The average number of people moving to Thornbury per year for each dwelling built was around 0.9 over these five years. This indicates that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new homes in Thornbury is $403,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals totaled $48.7 million, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Melbourne, Thornbury has 14.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This activity is also lower than the national average, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction comprises approximately 39.0% standalone homes and 61.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living to create more affordable entry points and suit downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Thornbury has around 551 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Thornbury is expected to grow by approximately 7,582 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Thornbury has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 39thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include 712-716 High Street Mixed-Use Development, Route 86 Tram Accessibility Upgrades, 680 High Street Residential Development, and 791-793 High Street Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Thornbury has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Thornbury has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector prominent. Its unemployment rate is 7.3%, having seen an estimated employment growth of 3.8% in the past year. As of December 2025, 12,319 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.3%, which is 2.5% higher than Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 76.0%, compared to Greater Melbourne's 69.9%. According to Census responses, 48.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts are notable. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Thornbury has a particularly high concentration in professional & technical jobs, with levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

However, construction employs only 6.1% of local workers, below Greater Melbourne's 9.7%. The residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.8%, while labour force grew by 4.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded employment growth of 2.4% and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornbury's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Thornbury SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $66,515. The average level stood at $84,578. This was one of the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Melbourne levels of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $72,914 (median) and $92,714 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, individual earnings stood out at the 81st percentile nationally ($1,041 weekly). Income brackets indicated that the largest segment comprised 30.3% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (6,132 residents), reflecting patterns seen regionally where 32.8% similarly occupied this range. Higher earners represented a substantial presence with 31.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 16.1% of income, though strong earnings still placed disposable income at the 64th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Thornbury displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Thornbury's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.9% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Melbourne metro had 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornbury stood at 27.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.6% and rented ones at 42.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Melbourne metro's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Thornbury was $396, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, Thornbury's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Thornbury features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.2% of all households, including 25.7% couples with children, 24.0% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.8%, consisting of 33.3% lone person households and 7.4% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

Thornbury shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Thornbury's educational attainment is notably higher than national averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 51.2% hold university qualifications, compared to Australia's 30.4% and Victoria's 33.4%. This high level of attainment is led by bachelor degrees (31.2%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.9%) and graduate diplomas (6.1%). Vocational pathways account for 20.4%, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 11.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornbury has 82 active public transport stops, including lightrail and bus services. These stops are served by 14 routes that facilitate 7,023 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 176 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this predominantly residential area. Cars are the primary mode of transportation, used by 67% of residents, while trains account for 9%, and cycling for 7%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 48.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages 1,003 trips per day, equating to approximately 85 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornbury's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Thornbury residents' health outcomes are relatively positive according to data analysis. Mortality rates and health conditions align with national benchmarks. Common health issues affect both young and old age groups similarly.

Private health cover is exceptionally high at 62% of Thornbury's total population (12,466 people), compared to Greater Melbourne's 56.7% and the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impact 11.7%, while asthma affects 8.3%. A total of 68.5% report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Melbourne's 72.6%. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. Thornbury has 13.4% (2,713 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Greater Melbourne's 15.0%, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Thornbury was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornbury's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 27.4% born overseas and 26.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Thornbury, accounting for 37.1%. While Judaism made up only 0.4%, this was higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 1.0%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (17.5%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, Greek, Italian, and Macedonian ethnicities had higher representation in Thornbury compared to regional averages: Greek at 7.7% vs 2.7%, Italian at 8.9% vs 5.2%, and Macedonian at 1.2% vs 0.7%.

Thornbury's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Thornbury has a median age of 37, matching Greater Melbourne's figure and comparable to Australia's median age of 38. The 25-34 age group is strongly represented at 20.6%, higher than Greater Melbourne's percentage. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.0%. Nationally, the 25-34 age group comprises 14.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 55-64 age group has increased from 9.8% to 10.6% of Thornbury's population. During this period, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 14.1% to 12.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Thornbury's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 60%, reaching 3,430 people from its current figure of 2,149.