Scarness

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scarness reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Scarness statistical area's (Lv2) population is estimated at around 3,877. This reflects an increase of 231 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,646. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 3,743 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024), and an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,107 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Scarness's 6.3% growth since census positions it within 2.5 percentage points of the non-metro area (8.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections are adopted, released in 2023 based on 2021 data. However, these state projections do not provide age category splits; hence proportional growth weightings in line with ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data) for each age cohort are applied where utilised. Looking ahead, a population increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities is expected, with Scarness (SA2) projected to expand by 267 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 5.0% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Scarness when compared nationally

Scarness has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 54 homes were approved, with an additional 12 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each home built over these years accommodates approximately 3.1 new residents.

This supply is significantly lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $420,000. In FY-26, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of Queensland, Scarness has significantly less development activity, 78.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. Nationally, development activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity in Scarness consists of 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with a focus on detached housing that attracts space-seeking buyers. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (66.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. Scarness reflects a low density area, with approximately 199 people per approval. Looking ahead, Scarness is expected to grow by 195 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Scarness has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are HBC Build Australia Mixed-Use Development, Marina Square Development, Hervey Bay Community Hub, and The Green Lifestyle Community. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Scarness recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Scarness has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented.

The unemployment rate is 7.3%, with an estimated employment growth of 8.9% over the past year. As of September 2025, there are 1,572 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.2% above Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation is lower at 42.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 4.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 8.9%, while labour force increased by 9.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. This compares to Rest of Qld where employment grew by 1.7%, labour force expanded by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows Queensland's employment contracted by 0.01% (losing 1,210 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.2%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Scarness's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Scarness had a median taxpayer income of $42,617 and an average income of $53,581 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was below the national average for that year. The Rest of Qld's median income was $53,146 with an average income of $66,593 during the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $46,840 (median) and $58,891 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth of 9.91% since financial year 2023. Census data showed that household, family, and personal incomes in Scarness fell between the 1st and 6th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that 34.1% of locals (1,322 people) earned between $400 and $799 per week, differing from the regional trend where the $1,500 to $2,999 category was predominant at 31.7%. With 43.7% earning under $800 per week, Scarness faced significant income constraints impacting local spending patterns. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 79.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Scarness displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Scarness, as per the latest Census evaluation, 66.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 33.9% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Non-Metro Qld's figures of 83.9% houses and 16.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scarness stood at 35.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.6% and rented ones at 43.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,244, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Scarness was $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $335. Nationally, Scarness's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Scarness features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.4 percent of all households, including 13.6 percent couples with children, 29.0 percent couples without children, and 14.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.6 percent, with lone person households at 37.5 percent and group households comprising 4.8 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3 people.

The educational profile of Scarness exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.6%). A total of 24.1% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 8.6% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.1% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.6% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 15 active stops operating within Scarness, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 211 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Scarness is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Scarness faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,878 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.5% of residents) and mental health issues (11.9%). Conversely, 53.8% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Qld's 56.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 30.1% (1,166 people). Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

Scarness ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scarness had a lower-than-average cultural diversity level, with 86.6% of its population being Australian citizens and 80.5% born in Australia. Most residents, 94.7%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 51.1% of Scarness's population.

Notably, the 'Other' religious category comprised 1.2% of Scarness's population compared to 0.6% across the rest of Queensland. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.6%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (8.5%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: German was equally represented at 5.3%, New Zealanders were slightly overrepresented at 0.9% compared to 0.7% regionally, and Maori were also slightly overrepresented at 0.7%.

Scarness ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Scarness has a median age of 51, which is higher than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, Scarness has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort at 16.4%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.2% to 10.7%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 8.4%, and the 65 to 74 group has decreased from 17.7% to 16.4%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Scarness's age structure. The 85+ cohort is projected to increase by 91 people (79%), from 116 to 208. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 51% of population growth, indicating a trend towards demographic aging. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 5-14 age cohorts.