Scarness

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scarness reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Scarness's population is estimated at around 3,874, reflecting an increase of 228 people since the 2021 Census. The suburb had a population of 3,646 in 2021. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,742 residents following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and seven validated new addresses since the Census date. Scarness's population density is 2,105 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth of 6.3% since the census positions it within 2.5 percentage points of non-metro areas (8.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% to Scarness's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections for years post-2032, based on 2021 data and released in 2023. For areas not covered by ABS projections, AreaSearch applies proportional growth weightings from the ABS Greater Capital Region projections (released in 2023, based on 2022 data). Looking ahead, Scarness is expected to increase by approximately 272 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.2% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Scarness when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Scarness has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 80 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has resulted in 2.1 new residents per year over these five years, suggesting solid demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $420,000, which is below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year, there have been $152,000 in commercial approvals registered, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Comparatively, Scarness has significantly less development activity than the rest of Queensland, with 68.0% fewer approvals per person relative to the regional average. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

However, recent periods have seen an increase in development activity. The current new building activity shows 86.0% standalone homes and 14.0% medium and high-density housing, sustaining Scarness's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (66.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 115 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. Population forecasts indicate Scarness will gain 203 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Scarness has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely impacting the region. Notable projects include HBC Build Australia Mixed-Use Development, Marina Square Development, Hervey Bay Community Hub, and The Green Lifestyle Community. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Scarness faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Scarness has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 8.2%, with an estimated employment growth of 5.0% over the past year. According to AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas, there are 1,540 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 4.3% higher than Rest of Qld's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Scarness lags at 42.5%, compared to Rest of Qld's 59.1%. The dominant employment sectors among Scarness residents include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.3%, compared to the regional average of 4.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 5.0% while labour force grew by 7.1%, leading to an unemployment rise of 1.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Qld where employment rose by 1.8%, the labour force grew by 2.0%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Scarness's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows Scarness has lower incomes than the national average. The median income is $42,617 and the average is $53,581. This contrasts with Rest of Qld's median income of $50,780 and average of $64,844. Using Wage Price Index growth of 13.99% since June 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $48,579 (median) and $61,077 (average). The 2021 Census shows Scarness incomes fall between the 1st and 6th percentiles nationally. Most residents (34.1%, or 1,321 people) earn between $400 - $799 weekly, differing from the surrounding region where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is predominant at 31.7%. Economic pressure is high, with 43.7% of households having modest weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability is severe, with only 79.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Scarness displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Scarness, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 66.1% houses and 33.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro Qld had 83.9% houses and 16.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Scarness was at 35.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (21.6%) or rented (43.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Scarness was $1,244, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,430 and Australia's national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Scarness was $300, compared to Non-Metro Qld's $335 and the national figure of $375.

Scarness features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.4% of all households, including 13.6% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 42.6%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 4.8%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.3.

The educational profile of Scarness exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (29.6%). A total of 24.1% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.6% in secondary, 8.4% in primary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to be situated outside the immediate catchment area, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Scarness has 15 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together offer 211 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to these services, with an average distance of 185 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Scarness is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Scarness faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~1,876 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.5% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 11.9%). Approximately 53.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Qld's 56.7%. Scarness has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.2% (~1,169 people). Health outcomes among seniors present similar challenges to those seen in the general population.

Scarness ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scarness had low cultural diversity, with 86.6% citizens, 80.5% born in Australia, and 94.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 51.1%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to 0.6% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, English comprised 32.6%, Australian 27.7%, and Irish 8.5%. Notably, German (5.3%) and New Zealand (0.9%) groups were overrepresented, while Maori was at 0.7%.

Scarness ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Scarness has a median age of 51, which is higher than Rest of Qld's figure of 41 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Qld average, Scarness has an over-representation of the 65-74 cohort at 16.4%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Since 2021, the population of Scarness aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.2% to 10.7%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 8.4%, and the 65 to 74 group has decreased from 17.7% to 16.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Scarness's age structure. The 85+ cohort is projected to increase by 88 people (74%), from 120 to 209. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 50% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 5-14 age cohorts.