Scarness

An assessment of population growth drivers in Scarness reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis using ABS population updates and validated new addresses, the estimated population of the suburb of Scarness was around 3,893 as of Feb 2026. This figure represents an increase of 247 people (6.8%) since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,646. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 3,743 in Jun 2024, along with 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,115 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Scarness's growth rate of 6.8% since the Census is within 2.3 percentage points of the Rest of Qld (9.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered and years post-2032, Queensland State Government's SA2 area projections released in 2023 based on 2021 data are adopted, with proportional growth weightings applied for age cohorts. Looking ahead, population projections indicate an increase just below the median of locations outside capital cities, with Scarness expected to expand by 253 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 4.3% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Scarness when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Scarness has seen approximately 10 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 54 homes were approved, with 12 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 3.1 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

However, supply is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $420,000. Additionally, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of Qld, Scarness has significantly less development activity, with 78.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. Nationally, Scarness also reflects lower development activity, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity comprises 92.0% detached dwellings and 8.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's suburban nature with a focus on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Notably, developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (66.0% at Census), reflecting persistent strong demand for family homes amid densification trends. With around 199 people per approval, Scarness reflects a developing area. Looking ahead, Scarness is expected to grow by 167 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Scarness has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include HBC Build Australia Mixed-Use Development, Marina Square Development, Hervey Bay Community Hub, and The Green Lifestyle Community. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Scarness recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Scarness has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.4% in the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 9.0%. As of September 2025, 1,570 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.3%, above Rest of Qld's rate of 4.1%. Workforce participation was lower at 51.5% compared to Rest of Qld's 65.7%. Only 9.0% of residents worked from home, despite Covid-19 lockdown impacts.

Top employment industries were health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance had particularly high concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 1.3% compared to 4.5% regionally. The area offered limited local employment opportunities, indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 9.0%, labour force by 9.6%, raising unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. This compared to Rest of Qld where employment grew by 1.7%, labour force expanded by 2.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggested future demand within Scarness. These projections estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Scarness's employment mix indicated local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Scarness had a median taxpayer income of $42,617 and an average income of $53,581 in financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average for Rest of Qld, which was $53,146 median and $66,593 average. By September 2025, estimated incomes based on Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $46,840 median and $58,891 average. Census data shows Scarness incomes rank between the 1st and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis indicates that 34.1% of locals (1,327 people) earn between $400 - $799 per week, differing from the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 31.7%. With 43.7% earning under $800 weekly, Scarness faces significant income constraints impacting local spending patterns. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Scarness displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Scarness, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 66.1% houses and 33.9% other dwellings. In Non-Metro Qld, it was 76.4% houses and 23.6% other dwellings. Home ownership level in Scarness was higher than Non-Metro Qld at 35.5%, with the rest mortgaged (21.6%) or rented (43.0%). Median monthly mortgage repayment in Scarness was $1,244, below Non-Metro Qld's average of $1,655 and Australia's national figure of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Scarness was $300, lower than Non-Metro Qld's $345 and the national average of $375.

Scarness features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 57.4% of all households, including 13.6% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 42.6%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households making up 4.8%. The median household size is 2.0 people, smaller than the Rest of Qld average of 2.5.

The educational profile of Scarness exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 15.9%, significantly lower than Australia's average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 10.1% and certificates for 29.6%.

A total of 24.1% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 8.6% in secondary education, 8.4% in primary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 15 active transport stops operating within Scarness, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 5 individual routes, collectively providing 211 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 91%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Scarness is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Scarness faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of Scarness' total population (around 1,885 people), compared to 52.5% in the rest of Queensland and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.5% and 11.9% of residents respectively. However, 53.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 67.6% in the rest of Queensland. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Scarness has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.5%, with approximately 1,187 people, compared to 20.4% in the rest of Queensland. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Scarness ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Scarness had a below average cultural diversity, with 86.6% of its population being citizens born in Australia speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 51.1%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to Rest of Qld's 0.8%.

Top ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (8.5%). Notably, German (5.3%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 4.7%. New Zealand (0.9%) and Maori (0.7%) also showed notable divergences from regional averages.

Scarness ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Scarness has a median age of 51, which is higher than the Rest of Qld figure of 41 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Qld average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented in Scarness at 16.5%, while the 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.0%. This concentration of the 65 - 74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.2% to 10.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 9.9% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 8.0%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 17.7% to 16.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Scarness's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase markedly by 72 people, from 132 to 205. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 50% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 5 to 14 age cohorts.